John Rubino – Inflation, Fed Policy, US General Equities, Bonds, Gold As We Near Inflection Point
John Rubino, Founder and Editor of The Dollar Collapse website, joins us to focus on the multiple currents affecting markets from inflation, to Fed policy, and how this is roiling general US equities and bonds, but makes the safe haven appeal of gold more compelling. We discuss how raging inflation showing up in so many areas of everyday life for citizens and in business will cause rates to surge, but then could lead to the mirror image of a deflationary recession a year or so after that. Next we touched on the high levels of consumer spending seen in the marketplace to get in front of inflation, but often on credit, so not something that will be sustainable, as noted in slowing growth forecasts for the economy this year.
Next the conversation gets into how long many have waited for this confluence of financial events to finally pin the central banks down in a corner where there is little that can be done, where generalists lose confidence, and we reflect in amazement at how long they’ve been able to kick the can down the road. John references his pieces on the “Long Wave Versus The Printing Press” outlining that at the time most of those wave theories were born out, it was during a sound money environment. The originators of those wave theories couldn’t have imagined a scenario where a world reserve currency was able to be printed in unlimited amounts injecting unprecedented liquidity, and he believe this is what has prolonged this cycle. Conversely this may mean the contraction cycle down will be far longer and extreme than most are planning for. We wrap up with thoughts on how some allocation to gold and silver may be instrumental in weathering the financial storm and maintaining purchasing power in whatever system springs up after the great reset.
It’s sure does Ex!
Let’s see if we can now build a rounding bottom on that 4 hour chart and go tag $1910/$1920 and secure that higher intermediate weekly high that’s had us for a long period.
$1910/$1920 first obstacle
$1960 ish next
$2000 plus
All in due time..
Sounds good Glenfidish. Yes, those upside targets will come all in due time at one point this year.
While a weekly and monthly close above $1900 is key, I’m more interested in a close above $1920-$1921 as that was a significant peak last year, and $1921 was the prior all time high from 2011 with a lot of market memory there. Closes above that open up $1962-$1966, and then the all time high of $2089 come in focus.
At the moment I think the situation in the Ukraine is the main factor for the markets behavior
Thomas, I’d agree that the Ukraine situation is playing a part in some of the market gyrations, and the tension deescalating may have been why gold sold off today to a degree (but the emergency Fed meeting was also a concern and nothing happened).
There are many complex factors playing into the gold price (interest rates, currencies, anticipated Fed policy, general market health, inflation expectations, etc…) Geopolitical events play into it, but are typically fleeting influences.
UUP closed just under Fibonacci fan resistance…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p60008324761&a=1098309667
Gold must be pricing in political winds of change such as, WHOSE on 1st….
Justin Trudeau The Prime Minister of Canada was publicly humiliated by the truckers movement. Instead of dealing with the crisis he claimed to have covid and went into hibernation.
The economic disease we are presently seeing is not temporary but organic and deep seated. Our leaders have gone so far down the road with endless money printing, that they cannot change the prescription without public embarrassment.
The failure of the treatment of raising interest rates is so obvious to the point of humiliation that the only option left to The Federal Reserve is to lapse into silence. They can no longer offer cheerful prognostications, they must admit defeat and get on with being physicians of the economy or step aside. There is a lack of leadership unlike anything I have ever seen. DT
While gold is rising versus the dollar it will be falling versus the gold miners.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p68262872001&a=1070237347
Time for the miners to outperform? long awaited
Thanks for the chart below
Watch out Glen…you may get stoned in the public square. 🙂
I think getting stoned in the public square is legal in most places these days. 😉
🙂
It’s interesting that the mainstream media isn’t mentioning the closed Fed board meeting that happened today under “Expedited Procedures.” We just might wake up to an announcement of a .5% rise in the Fed’s discount rate.
That is interesting. Thanks for the heads up Matthew.
Matt,
R is 3/4 back in the PM sector/leveraged and PM stocks….hopefully we weather through this back-test and put this 18 month correction behind us!
deja vu all over again.
Thanks confused!
Release of FOMC minutes is no longer listed for tomorrow!
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm
Fed Meeting…that is right. You mentioned that last week and now crickets. Maybe they decided that doing anything dramatic might cut their own throat and rather than issue a “surprise statement”, they elected to order out for Pizza….we need to keep an eye out as it would be manipulative to say the least.
I don’t believe anything substantive came from the emergency Fed meeting, so it was a bit of a nothing burger.
Burgers not pizza…
It was a cheeseburger pizza…. (but hold the burger…) 😉
Copper Lake put out initial drill results this morning and got some results … mostly zinc it looks like. But some copper,silver, gold along with it. Evidently there was a leak as it went up almost 40% yesterday on no news, but also has been going up and down a couple of times during the last couple of months. It is around .15 cents before news (US). Historic drill area, so some knowledge already.
…and some lead. Thunder Bay area Ontario.
War must be over which is bad for commodities evidently. Inflation doesn’t matter nor the unpayable debt. Corporate America shows signs of depression and disappointment. Only through War can we experience peace and happiness. … Just another counter intuitive day.
PPI up 1% and hot…might give gold some recovery from lack of war.
PPI 9.7% annual …I think.
PPI 9.7% annual …I think.
Some info circulating that the FBI indicated that Zero Hedge put up some Russian based articles that falsely represented the War situation. Don’t know if CNBC was using them as the basis to pump the general markets this AM or not…
All put out by “Associated” Press………. AP………..
zerohedge watches the Ker Orphan Section….. for the front running details…. lol…. 🙂
Real News
CIA, going after Irish Tony…. for cloverleaf trading… and trade mark infringements on the
Lucky Charms……. 🙂
Poor IrishT… They’re always after his Lucky Charms…. (and Silver horde)…..
(even though we all remember his silver stash is buried under the fish pond).
“Learn to swim with the fishes…”
🙂
Make believe still looking good … crypto and banks up.
Oil down despite Putin having his troops drive tanks and personnel carries in circles through farmland all over western Russia.
i am out of boil on this lousy technical 10 minute chart retest…no volume no OBV behind it under 5 minutes…i consider this retest a gift….imho 11:55 est
Yes indeed, a gift it is.
Interestingly and bullishly, the silver miners are down much less than silver and even less than the gold miners. For example, at the moment, SILJ is down .16% (2 cents) while SLV is down 1.95% and GDX is down 1.6%.
In the last second of trading, SILJ popped to 12.60, up 1 cent for the day while SLV finished down 2%.
At its low for the day, SILJ was down about 3.75% while SLV was down about 3.3%. So even at its worst, SILJ offered bullishly little downside leverage to silver.
Keeping up with my ongoing posting of information in the FWIW category:
As usua,l another split day in performance:
But …interesting fact at the moment:
Of my 9 best performers long term: Only 1 is positive: Silver Tiger
Of my 9 worst performers long term: Only 1 is negative: Millennial Precious Metals
Conclusion: None as tomorrow may be the reverse.
By George……. I think you got it……….. 🙂
What do I take for it?
1 low dose asprin for heart health.
I will take it when they loosen the straps on my straitjacket.
Keep me informed how that works out, as I’m just now getting fitted for my straightjacket.
Just Tell them you prefer…….. short sleeves…………
haha! good one OOTB!
Despite everyone in authority insisting that War is possible in the Ukraine…Wall Street insists that the current social and economic conditions are Not in favor of commodities. As usual, there is no indication that reality will impact the direction of the metals that began at open today. The garbage continues to pile up, but is never removed.
Gold futures up in afterhours trading to $1,878.95.
I thought we were supposed to be seeing the PMs pullback heading into the Fed rate hikes?
Thus far it looks like the Q1 Run is playing out once again.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold