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[…] http://www.kereport.com/2011/10/05/big-al-lenic-rodriquez-answer-listener-questions-aurcana-corporat… Posted in Investment Ideas Cancel Reply […]
Sweet interview — thanks for the update!!!
On another note, I stumbled upon this clip and it is seemingly relavant considering the global turmoil — gold / silver are the only life boats (better get on now or you will go down with the ship).
I want to agree with you but so far all the major metals men have been wrong. They were all planning on the printing presses being turned on full blast. Embry today came out and said silver is a bottom.
James (My Fellow Canadian),
Good day … the only thing that you said that left me scratching my head was “…all the major metals men have been wrong.” How is that so? For all of the major metals men to be wrong they first need to be of one mind — all bullish OR all bearish, which is certainly not the case (ie. Peter Schiff and Clive Maund do not share views regarding the metals). I believe you may mean to say that all of the major metals men that you have been following have been wrong. Am I fair to assume this?
I am still bullish on metals, based on logic and history. I am only saying that, temporarily, at least, the metal men have not been correct, ie, prices will explode as of September, QE3,,,
But I am not blaiming anybody. In fact, I respect men such as Al and Rog and Embry and Schiff who have the courage to go against our worthless media and ” married to the market” culture.
Did he say the Shafter mine will be making money (commercial production)Q1 2012
2nd there is a report out that the metals colapsed because JPMorgan was given a free pass from the CFTC immediately after that the metals tumbled. I do not know what to make of this.
Couple of things.
First of all, yes that is what Lenic said. Keep in mind that is a forward looking statement and, obviously, there is no guarantee that will happen.
Regarding you second comment, I will be doing a Daily Editorial on this today.
HI GIUSEPPE. You had better believe it, They JP run the whole crooked show with the blessing of the CFTC, & the U.S. govt. & have done for years. GATA have the proof.
Their power must be limited because the price increased substantially. How much power do they realy have? Are we fools for investing in Silver or Gold going up against this legally back gouvernment corrupt force?
I can assure you that you/we are not fools. Our shares are being scooped up by the smart money every time enough fear is manufactured to shake the little guy out. It cannot be stressed enough that the values and fundamentals are very real, and intact. Equally real are the deteriorating fundamentals of common stocks that rely on a healthy economy for their profits. Historically, the most violent corrections occur during a bull market. It sounds backward, but these shakeouts add to the health and duration of the bull. Bull markets, unfortunately, take as few participants as possible to the end. It is only at the end that the masses start buying and (finally!) have conviction. They end up the “holding the bag” each and every time. It happened in the tulip mania nearly 400 years ago, and many, many times since. Recently, the dot-com and housing markets are the best example. Both hurt far more people than were helped. The big money is made by those who buy BEFORE it is obvious to everyone, and begin to sell as it becomes obvious to everyone. None of us are perfect, so the trick is to avoid compounding our mistakes. For instance, even though I am very risk tolerant and have no problem buying scary dips, I still regularly make purchases that later prove to be way less than perfect. What has always worked very well for me, is to avoid making a bad sale. Two mistakes in a row (bad buy+bad sell) equals a real loss. By focusing on the quality of what we own, instead of the short term price fluctuation, we should be better able to hold onto our shares. In 2008, and now, I protect the number of shares I own, not the number of dollars. These shares were undervalued 3 weeks ago. Right now they should be much more appealing — unless you think the bull market is over. I do not. Cashed-up companies with good properties, and preferably assets in the ground, have nothing to worry about. I know it’s easier said than done, but you should buy when there’s fear and sell when there’s excitement. And always keep core holdings that you don’t touch until we approach the end. Most importantly, try to learn enough about the investments you choose so that you have conviction.
Matthew,,watch out you will have to explain the “tuplic bulb” mania…when one
tulip bulb went for 60 tons of butter, the ” SEMPER AUGUSTUS”…I have an orginal
painting of this bulb to remind me of “bubbles”….and to remind me that gold is
not in a bubble yet….People that are worried about bubbles need to read about
this mania of the 1700s
Just like to help you out,,educational purposed only..JERRY
Thanks for that Jerry. I remember reading of a single bulb fetching a house, but don’t remember the 60 tons of butter. Wow!
HI Matthew and Jerry,
Good points except for one question I have.
Tulips did not have a finite supply as they could always be reproduced Gold does have a finite supply.
To me, that is a big difference.
Can you elaborate?
I was referring to the juniors when making the tulip mania comparison. Eventually, and with history as a guide, I think it is fair to expect a mania. Just as we currently see a gross undervaluation in our juniors, I think it is inevitable that we will see an extraordinary overvaluation at some point. The market is notorious for assigning way too much value to assets of both poor and excellent quality. For instance, even quality companies in the tech bubble collapsed from their highs — spectacularly.
During the 70’s-80’s bull market, some juniors went from pennies and dimes to hundreds of dollars. Many had very little real value. Although I wasn’t talking about gold itself, one could make the case that it too will reach at least near-bubble status.
Consider that in 1929, the Dow reached just over 19 ounces. By 1932, it took just 1 oz to buy the Dow. In 1966, the Dow was over 28 oz. By 1980, just over 1 oz. In 1999, the Dow was worth over 40 oz. Today it takes fewer than 7 oz. We are on our way to 1 or even less. So about once every generation, gold is BRIEFLY worth between 20 and 40 times more Dow. At the top of a bull market in gold, it buys a whole lot more of everything, not just the Dow. But because the opportunity is brief, we could say such tops are a bubble. People who got in early ($35 in 1970), did very well even if they held through the collapse of 1980. But MOST participants came in at or near the top; that’s what makes a top — no one left to pressure the market higher. For them, the collapse meant real loss. For a long time. Manias are about mass psychology, but central banks with their fiat money and leverage can make them worse.
but,some of the rare tulips, were in limited supply such as the “SEMPER AGUSTUS”,
just as” beenie babies.”..why would anyone pay $1000 for a stuffy,
this all has to do with mania(going crazy,human nature,got to have it mentality),,,and there have been several, in every century. AND WILL HAPPEN IN GOLD…
Sorry GIUSEPPE, I dont have the answers, but i still have faith the PM’s
How much trust is there between thieves and crooks? Did Goldman Sachs trust Lehman Brothers while Lehman trusted GS? All these banks including their governments have derivatives and insurance contracts against each other CDS (credit default swaps). Even the Federal government has derivative contracts against the US citizens in the form of debt limits that never decline, only increase.
The treasury dept. borrows over 600 billion dollars every month which is used mostly to pay off maturing debt, but is increasing because government is growing while US economy shrinks. This is 20 billion dollars that must be kept and added to the Federal Government every single day, even weekends. You can look up and add the debt on Treasury site, or trust the Debt clock.
By the end of this month, total US Federal debt will be $15 trillion and growing. Central banks like the Fed and ECB are in impossible situations when having to deal with dysfunctional politicians that don’t care to understand the situation they and their voters have created. Dependents and the growing imbalances between government size and the available Gross Domestic Income of these nations is a no win situation. All these debt busted nations will either default implicitly (inflation) or explicitly (refuse to pay), both will result in the fall of fiat money.
You guys and gals were amazing last Sunday,with the walk you did, and all the money you raseid for Breast Cancer!!! I have a real close friend who has breast cancer, and I thank immensly for all your efforts again last Sunday!! Take care and please beleive there will be efforts and a cure to beat breast cancer in the future!!!
Federal Government owes $15 trillion in direct Treasury debt. Borrows over 600 billion every month or 20 billion every day. Size of government is growing while Gross Domestic Income is shrinking. Nearly all treasury debt is being purchased by the Fed which will not allow the United States to inspect its books or know what this private bank is doing and yet the President, Congress and Courts have complete faith and trust in it. Meanwhile the whole fiat world money commerce is turning upside down.
Insider behaviour in aurcana is dubious………
Aurcana Corporation (AUN) As of October 4th, 2011
Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Unit Price
Oct 04/11 Sep 28/11 Aguirre, Adrian Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -109,500 $0.639
Sep 15/11 Sep 12/11 Collison, Kenneth W. Direct Ownership Options 50 – Grant of options 150,000 $0.790
Sep 15/11 Jun 29/11 Collison, Kenneth W. Direct Ownership Options 00 – Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
Sep 09/11 Sep 07/11 Aguirre, Adrian Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -50,000 $0.807 USD
Sep 03/11 Aug 24/11 Rodriguez, Lenic Manuel Direct Ownership Common Shares 51 – Exercise of options 500,000 $0.590
Sep 03/11 Aug 24/11 Rodriguez, Lenic Manuel Direct Ownership Options 51 – Exercise of options -500,000 $0.660
Sep 02/11 Aug 29/11 Aguirre, Adrian Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -100,000 $0.675 USD
Aug 17/11 Aug 17/11 Gieselman, Terese Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -18,000 $0.700
Aug 17/11 Aug 16/11 Gieselman, Terese Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -10,000 $0.710
Aug 17/11 Aug 16/11 Gieselman, Terese Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 – Disposition in the public market -14,000 $0.710
Short-term technicals do not look great.
AUNFF – Aurcana Corp (OTC)
Date Open High Low Last Change Volume % Change
10/05/11 0.5670 0.5670 0.5670 0.5670 +0.0040 1754 +0.71%
Trend Spotter TM Sell
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell
10 – 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Sell
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 – 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold
Short Term Indicators Average: 80% – Sell
20-Day Average Volume – 375380
I personally am holding shares….at a loss! May a recovery occur soon please….!
Selling stock and exercising options is a regular occurrence in this sector of the market. The people who I watch out for are those who do not disclose their actions by selling through someone else or by just plain not telling the truth.
I don’t really have any reason to think that Lenic falls into that category.
Remember, this is definitely not investment advice. (Isn’t it a shame that the world is so corrupt that we have to say this!)
Loved your post and love you guys! I am so proud of you for tackling this prsoecs again. You approach it with such ease and grace. The perfect combination for parents to have. I hope you are adjusting well. Keep the pictures coming. We love to see them!
I am beginning to realize I am a stupid precious metals nut! I have used technical analysis for stocks for many years, but ususally for timing of purchases of regular stocks where fundamentals are not as definable as for mining stocks. For mining stocks I have tended to use fundamentals to decide whether to buy or not.
Looking back over the last few years; the last buy signal for Aurcana was in Nov 2009, and since then there have been 4 sell signals. (Last being in Feb of this year)
I I really should use technical analysis more often, so that I would not hold on to losses.
Optimism tends to live on and on…..
You guys are making my head swim – wow , I have positions in GDX, GDXJ and SIL don/t have any individual mining stocks except a lot of Silver Wheaton – their business model is second to none – that’s a no-brainer….any thoughts?
Yep Marc I have a thought.
I don’t do derivatives because I am very familiar with all the companies I invest in. I also don’t think that I know enough about the derivative market.
It would appear; however, that you method of investing does take out the vagaries of the individual companies and there is a bit of sense in that.
Hi Rod, thank you so much for the kind words, I hope you and your family had a great Thanksgiving, and maybe soomnee gave thanks to you by making you coffee for once?
I tried to say earlier before my system crashed, SLW is my biggest single holding.
I also like royalty models. e.g. Tanzanian royalty of Jim Sinclair and Franco Nevada lead by Pierre Lassonde. GDX, GDXJ and SIL are good choices until you learn more.
Tere was a time when some of the investment companies, like Pinecone, Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.TO) and Endeavor Capital who financed start-up companies for a piece of the action, were doing very well and similar companies will again, but they were virtually wiped out by the 2008 monetary collapse. Leverage works both ways!
I have lived off my investments for over 20 years, am always mostly 90% invested, but go long or short as I feel the market is bullish or bearish and in dollar terms have about 3 times what I started with over 20 years ago. My best advice is trust no advice and learn as much as possible . (Good luck on figuring the truthfulness of that last sentence!)
I think we are coming from the same place,
I love hearing from cfs2000. WE need a little (and sometimes alot) of skepticism with regards to some of these junior stocks to remind people of the risks that balance potential rewards. The last month has only serve to emphasize that reality.
I would be really cautious here — like alot of people I am quite jaded with the junior mining sector. There are alot of sharks on the Venture exchange (and its the most reputable junior market exchange!). So mnay companies are all talk and very little progress. Show me a plan, show me timely execution and evidence of progess toward a goal. Period.
You, my friend, are absolutely correct.
That is why you want to have Al…do the leg work, via thur this site…
He has “boots on the ground” and can see if the companies are for real.
otherwise it is a crap shoot.
I’m also unable to doonlwad them. I posted the tweet & I click on the doonlwad button, nothing happens. I tried again & same result. Please could you send me alternative link. Thank you
Did you Tweet of posted on Facebook?Hundreds of deigsners are downloading the file each day. I don’t know what happened to you. I will email the direct link to you anyway .cheers
Thank you. I was under the impression that this is like an “index” of selected mining companies that “represent” that particular industry as a whole. And absolutely, I don’t know enough about each individual company to feel comfortable investing in one or two, etc (except SLW). However, I am VERY INTERESTED in catching some of the leverage mining investing exposes me to without “thinking” so much. Maybe as I research more I will come more sophisticated. I know Bill Fleckenstein’s Mongolian resource project looks real interesting. And, of course, Sinclair’s company TRX…but who really knows. Thus, it makes sense to me to “index” invest no.?
I can’t make a comment on these companies primarily because I don’t really know anything about them.
BTW, Big Al,
As I become more participatory in this blog and have a lot of confidence in who you are what you are about – I am looking at stuff you (and others) are getting involved in. You are very judicious and of course, you had three daughters to raise and that takes a lot of savvy :}…. Don’t worry I will eventually formulate my own opinions and act accordingly. I am no lemming. HA
All the best,
Sometimes, I think that I am the lemming here!
Hey Big AL,
Now you are being too humble – you have more investment knowledge in that thumb of yours than I have in my entire brain power – HA!! Keep up the great work – someday it will be my privilege to meet you and your associates in persona.
Thanks for the compliment,
Not sure that I agree,
Big and Humble All
I believe it is so important to be in a production story. Aurcana is just that and if all goes according to plan the production will go through the roof next year. I hold shares in the company and picked up more today. I am biased.
Thanks Big Al,
Great work and many thanks for assisting AUN shareholders.
HI Matt B,
All I can do is try,