The Swiss referendum and how gold will be impacted
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Thanks Gary….thoughtful and precise as always…
yeah, precisely wrong, again.
If the reversal holds into the close I will have been exactly right and called the bottom almost perfectly. If not and gold has one more drop then I missed it by a couple of weeks. Not that bad in the big scheme of things considering I exited at the exact top of the rally and avoided 3 1/2 months of losses during the intermediate decline.
you are sociopathic-psychopath-like deluded .. never wrong from some self-serving angle, all so you can sell subscriptions to lemmings
Great article Gary! Let’s see what happens!
OK GARY ! Are you READY ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WREyAicJXkM
Gary obviously your cycle approach to gold is flawed, load up was your call just a couple weeks ago and the oil sector and the US$ rolling over…..what a very reckless approach having your subscribers well long oil and gold when two very important issues were at hand OPEC and Swiss vote.
Monday am should create some very big gap downs on many pm’s stocks and indexs the real test will be closing those gaps eventually and the taking out golds 50dma which these past 6 weeks has held back gold at $1255 and $1207
Al why you would buy a jr miner last Wed with the Swiss vote outcome still in play is just what ?????….then again $3200 is hardly an investment….
Good thing Doc doesn’t care what the price of gold and silver do regarding the value of the miners, really!?!?….
MORE NEWS OF EUROPE ! http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/27/marine-le-pen-met-far-right-leaders-eu-bloc
Two years form now do you really think it’s going to make any difference if you were 2 weeks early?
$10 silver and $900 gold, yes it sure will matter, I get labeled Mr Know it all…..really OPEC and Swiss vote was well known by every idiot, even the sheeple ignorant population
Fact is Gary your cycle work called a bottom in gold as you backed up the truck regardless of outside influences effecting gold price….and energy racing towards $100 when the US elections were over.
Your assuming gold and silver will be much higher two years from now, really, you can’t get 1 month right so I’d peel back that call.
Flat heading into OPEC and flat heading into Swiss vote was the correct position but you guys let your ego’s do the trading thinking your smarter than Mr Market
WTF
JJ ,
Have you bumped your head??
That is actually a good question. Why else would such a winner be so angry?
Not angry at all Matty!…not at all…..everyone here should be angry but your all brain dead….how anyone would be loaded up with energy before OPEC is crazy….why you all thought gold was about to race higher before a Swiss vote was known is just plain stupid!
How any of you can call yourself traders and yet none have made a cent trading oil or the precious metals sector from the short side….you claim you can read a chart, really even when its obvious the trend is down you don’t make a cent shorting a bear sector, that goes for Rick, Doc and Gary….traders or just long side salesmen???
If Doc is so great reading a chart with HIS technical that’s he watched soooo closely why isn’t everyone here short oil since it broke down at $98…you can see that on your chart Matty, how short were you heading into the OPEC meeting going flat as NOBODY knew the outcome of the meeting…..angry, lol….I’m blown away by the claims here of greatness yet even Gary calling for a big crash in gold won’t short the sector…..trader or long side salesmen…..
Have you ever noticed that I don’t make assumptions about your success or lack thereof? Have also noticed that I don’t throw a “WTF” at everyone who uses a different approach than mine? Yet, in your twisted little mind, I’M the one with a huge ego. You’re a pathetic little fellow that obviously can’t grasp that there are countless ways to make money in the markets.
In August, 2013, I mentioned here that I like CEM.V at four or five cents; in July it hit twenty-five cents and is still more than a triple since I mentioned it. Are my gains less real because you don’t approve?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CEM.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p19031048845&a=377448544&listNum=1
Bull or bear, I buy weakness and sell strength, and it works.
I have also made great trading gains recently and did NOT expect the referendum to pass. I was a seller of GDXJ calls last week because I did NOT think gold would necessarily “race higher.”
“$10 silver and $900 gold.”
May be on paper but not for long. It is hard to imagine any physical long investor selling at that insignificant price.
JJ
Just because you are so much smarter than we unwashed are, you have no right to trash Al or anyone else on this site. Al and Cory have always said that their site is not investment advice and Al is 100% transparent. I dare say that virtually everyone on this site has made some bad PM decisions over the past 3-4 years and I accept responsibility for my own.
I would rather think of you as having too much Holiday cheer and not an AH but the jury is still out in my mind.
JJ…at it again….more criticism and useless rhetoric…..
The worst thing is, his opinions are valid and are thoughtful. Its the friggin’ attitude that no one needs.
A few more what the comments and he will be going somewhere else.
Al don’t through him out. I’ve had my fair share of arguments with him but you need him to balance out the gold cap tin foil community. I personally like balance and not rah rah rah. You get me?
Dan,
I second your opinion. The guy has trading skills no doubt but it’s the attitude and lack of respect for others opinion that leaves one with a bitter taste.
Original, because I feel it is very undervalued and obviously I felt that way last week.
Tomorrow morning is going to be fascinating.
What about tonight? I think the market opens at 6 pm EST.
Pretty fascinating right now Bob!
Big Al… yes.. it’s wonderfully fascinating.. /sarc from me though.. 🙂
Sure Bob, interesting as to who hits the sell button first?
I wonder how low it will go, my guess has always been the Chinese increase buying at about 1000.
We shall see I guess, but if they don’t pick up buying then we could go…who knows?
Gary says a “mind blowing” event?
Totally crushed prices? Why hold anything?
Maybe people see gold/oil crushed and everyone jump out of profitable dow,s&p
yaaaaa, sheeple do that.
Guessing bottom in an rigged market is dangerous. As long as we refuse to be shaked out, we will be ok. End game has been going on for a few years. It will last till they cannot control any more. I have never seen a market going so extreme.
Well that’s one theory lawrence but you could have or can average down and get a better share price.
Yes I may but if does not go down, I am screwed. I want long term gain so I rather average down on something which is not going to 0. PM phys is only thing I dare to do.
100 bucks off?
I can’t see it hitting 1000 in the next two weeks but I can see it getting close enough – people probably will start buying before 1000 is reached??? Who knows.
Bob, I didn’t say anything about 2 weeks, I mentioned around 16-1700 I figured the Chinese start buying around 1000, when/if it goes to 1000, no idea, could say the same thing about 500. All I have ever said, is I expect the Chinese to increase buying should gold go to about 1000.
What I AM saying is, if the Chinese do NOT increase buying around 1000, it will be “look out below” imo
I just watched a Jim Rogers video from about 6 months back?
He was saying he intended to buy when gold goes below 1000.
He lives in Asia I believe.
BB,
Personally, I will be buying physical bullion and top tier PM miners in volume when we reach the $1,100 -$1,000 handle or there about’s, because why, because that will be when an even better buying opportunity will present itself.
And if I’m wrong and it never reaches those levels, I can still buy in at anytime as a clear uptrend is in-place.
If we reach the $900 level as some respected folks I follow insist Gold will in 2015, I’ll buy in even greater volume.
This crazy con-game is all about stacking the market odds and directional trend sector cycles in you’re favor.
95% of day to day gyrations coupled with completely useless information flow from this sector is just nonsense lased and regurgitated half-truths. That dynamic helps fuel a dangerous flip-a-coin gambling mindset with small investors simply hoping to catch a bid in the right direction. Its literally amateur hour most of the time.
This PM sector is as fraught with as many narcissistic personalities as found anywhere in that viper-hive known as Wall Street.
It’s all about keeping the naves in a never-ending hyperventilating state of consciousness and singing from the “world is going to end tomorrow” sheet of music.
What a utterly useless waste of energy, life and valuable limited time on earth frothing over whether gold and silver will go up or down on a daily or weekly basis.
V
I would hope that everyone here remembers our (Doc, Cory and my) official stance of late and that is “wait awhile”.
By the way, I agree with most of your comment. Be fun to have a drink sometime
Vortex,
Good post as always.
Big Al, I would be honored to have a few cold ones with you sometime, they would be on me. You do a great job here and thanks for putting up with us all.
V
Glen thanks for the kind words.
V 😉
Yes he does, bb
The Swiss voted “NO” to GOLD!!! But why France, Germany and Netherlands wants to repatriating their GOLD? GUYS, It’s Central Banks and Citi Group gangsters GAME!!!
Great comment on your part,Peter!
The Swiss citizens have spoken.
They do not need, care or want gold.
This was a resounding NO to hard money and gold as reserve.
The people have spoken, they sent a message for the rest of the world:
We don’t want gold!
Look out below when markets open.
Great speech James (the lesser)! Ask a girl she wants a PLASTIC WEDDING RING???
The chinese and indians are laughing a lot right now!!!
Could very well be, Peter!
When “the people have spoken,” always take the other side!.
Thank you Matthew for your sanity!
In retrospect it was obvious all along James, cant even get a cup of coffee with gold/silver in North America.
All the kwn pumping max keiser pumping, sprott pumping etc etc was all just pumping.
The markets are crooked, learn to play a “rigged” game a person has a chance I guess.
But what the heck, rollin dice is fun.
Actually you can in Utah 😉
I do find the constant optimism from them to be interesting! They are playing to their crowd though.
James what is wrong with the Swiss? Are they brain washed or are they on some kind of drug? Every normal human being on earth loves gold and silver and thinks those metals are money. This referendum result flies in the face of common sense.
Gary,
Great interview and certainly the correct call!!
I always like your take on the markets and have learned some valuable info from you. This is the first time I agree 100% with what you have said. With one small exception , price.
I think we will see between 5 and 600 bottom.
The plunge protection team ain’t stopping this puppy….
Exciting times !!
HE,HE…HA,HA…………..now that is a SWISS CHEESEY CALL……..
Chart,
I’m going to guarantee we will make a final bear market bottom in the next 5-12 days and there just isn’t enough time to get to $500. Plus there is a huge support zone at 1050. This will bottom somewhere between 950 and 1050.
Birds very unpopular 968 is still in play, and so is my Chinese increase buying about 1000.
Bird without a doubt is a very valuable asset to this forum at least for me. Sad he is not here anymore.
gary 1055 is gonna be a solid support.A bear flag has formed (pole from 1255 to 1130 and flag up to 1207)Flag is perfectly formed between parallel trendlines and it has already been breached at 1179 thus 1179 – (1255-1130) =1055.Having said that I dont think that that is gonna be the ultimate bottom.My gut feeling is telling me that another lower low is possible.Target imho for the ultimate low is 960.DYDD guys and gl whatever your position..
Thanks Gary – Bury your heads guys and gals for the next fortnight. Hang tough because you’ve done as much over the past 3 years. Buy a few silver rounds if you’re so minded. Happy December!!
That’s right Andrew, buy or hold. I don’t believe the low will take as long as Gary thinks since I don’t think the vote surprised any big or smart money. The scared little guys will sell most of what they are going to all in one day.
I agree with you Matthew. Do not see the Swiss vote as being any thing but a one day event, if even that. Gold might not even go down.
Yup, it’s just a sideshow. Nothing has changed.
Peter Endres girls may want gold wedding rings, but as I have said for almost two years now, Chinese housewives buying coins and Indian daughters getting jewelry isn’t enough to turn around this market.
This market moves on big money making speculative calls and momentum. Pure and simple.
Take a look on this buying calls…
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gdx/real-time
James….YES but only in the paper markets….& we all know they are one big con…
Its only fiat going around in a big circle among the big money.
Swiss vote – buy the rumor, sell the news.
And sell they will
James…..Nobody with any sense & logic expected a yes vote.
And thank you too for your sanity, Mr Irish!
When the BRICS…….dump their gold…….then the time will be over for gold……..
That is correct…. J……the long………..
Time to gather up those pink slips too!
The BRICS NEVER gonna dump their gold, actualy they gonna buy more…
Peter you are correct………that is why gold is going up ……….long term…..
What do you mean?
A lot of countries will repatriate their gold, causing an instant glutton in the market, this dropping the price.
Just read a bit of Garys blog, good and all yet I wonder about the expression “final” bottom.
1050 I don’t really see as “mind numbing” 500 might qualify the expression.
When oil goes down, doesn’t that make mining more profitable?
Something didn’t make sense oil dragging the entire commodity complex down.
Mining should be more profitable not less profitable.
I wonder how long most miners can stand sub 1000 gold?
BB,
Most won’t make it out of this down draft and that will be a good thing. I suspect when you see the big boys in the PM mining industry on the brink of total insolvency and forced to take immediate evasive action in spite of their rediculous ego’s, that will likely be your clarion call that a true bottom is in place.
In truth though, this is all just a best guess situation and you must remain flexible to any sector changing events.
When the likes of a Barrick Gold and a Newmont are forced to combine mining operations that should produce a cascade of M&A activity and signal a significant change in sector dynamics.
I suspect that many of the other large and mid-tier producers like Yamana, Agnico Eagle, Kinross, IAM Gold, Gold Corp, Allied Nevada, etc., etc., etc. will surprise the market one morning with an out of the blue merger and the game will be on.
At some point most all of these companies will have to combine forces to survive.
Vortex…….Some very logical thinking from you….& yes I agree it’s properly the only way they are going to survive. That’s assuming the Chinese or Bankers haven’t bought them out first.
Howdy Tony,
As this unfolds it will be interesting to watch and profitable as well. 😉
Take care
After having worked with over a thousand of these little companies, I happen to agree with you Vortex. That definitely does not mean there is no money to be made in this sector!
Al,
There will be good money to be made, we just have to be smart with our entry and exit points.
I think it’s a very short lived but violent plunge.
Then,, to da moon…. (As they say)
it seems to start to be very violent… -$23 since open, lets see if it’s short-lived or long-lived..
The gap down on the open is going to make your stomach turn like never before. Good thing I got out on friday.
Thanks Glenfidish!!… Phew… luckily I dont get it yet today…but the previous gaps down really did :D… Boy.. what a market… You must have strengthened your stomach..well… before me.. so you got out and picked the best choice not having to test your stomach this time around. .. 🙂
Blood bath phases usually last 5-10 days.
thanks Gary… I should set a blocker on my browser/TV/etc.. for this 5-10 days.. and turn them on again… I dont have a strong enough heart .. 🙁
Repatriating gold will cause an instant glutton I’m the market??
Not sure how that logically follows.
Seems to me when one country after the next want their gold back and they realize it’s gone, instead of a glutton it will be a squeeze unlike anyone has ever saw
You can temporarily suspend the laws of economics, but you can’t break them
Hello all,
Just want to bring a though re: gold’s potential performance in a few hours/early this week. So my post, in itself, has a very very very short – if any – (time) value.
When gold peaked this year, it was the exact day (a Monday) following the referendum in Crimea. I think it was fair to view it as a “sell the news” market action.
This week, we had weak PM prices, especially toward the end of the week, coinciding w. OPEC’s decision. It seems to me, however, that the Swiss vote was starting to be pretty much priced in.
I might be totally wrong on it, but that’s my feeling, esp. when I consider intraday price action a few days (>5 trading days) ago (rumors “yes” was ahead -> intraday spike in gold, then rumors “no” is closing in “sudden intraday drop).
As an aside, a swiss corporate executive (think C-level in a non-swiss large and publicly listed company) acquaintance told me this week: “the referendum will be NO by 70%”. I truly believe the market was pricing this over the past few days. So to me, the “buy the rumor sell the news” in this case mean “Short gold” (rumor is Vote=no so Short gold) ahead of the vote and cover once the vote is out (news out = cover the short).
Just my 2cts. Again, I might look totally like an idiot in a few hours after the market opens, but that’s my view.
Personally, I don’t believe we’ll have another ugly day tomorrow, and to be specific, I highly doubt we’ll have more than a $20 drop. I might be wrong, but that’s my feeling [I feel we might end monday down about 1%, or $10-12 give or take, at most]. And I KNOW this kind of prediction is ABSOLUTELY USELESS and WORTHLESS, but I just wanted to share it. 🙂
******
Now if I just wanna step back a little a look at potential catalysts and how they’ve fared recently:
1) Scotland independence vote (potentially bullish) -> failed / news is out
2) Swiss vote (definitely bullish if approved) -> failed / news is out
3) OPEC no output cut -> implies more “deflation” blabla, and unlikely rate increase for a good few months by the FED -> news is out
The price of gold has trended down for a few months now – although it’s down only about 1% YTD (I take a 2013 closing price of 1180, give or take a few dollars, for reference purposes). So if the potential negatives are now out and the price has trended down, my simple question is: why would the metal crash another $100-150 to $1000-1050? It might occur, but I don’t see it – although I admit that swings in commodities seem often more extremes than swing in stocks (ie the ruberband can stretch longer with commodities, it seems).
Let’s think about it this way:
IFFFFF gold had trended up over the past few months because a few positive catalysts had finally occurred/materialized and therefore the news were now old, would that make gold a buy ? Hmmmm… not sure. Not necessarily for me because a move had already occurred ahead of the event, and the event was confirming the move.
Sometimes, when something goes down big time, I think that instead of looking down, it is “interesting” to flip the chart UPSIDE DOWN and think: now that the chart is upside down, at that juncture, would I buy? Would this considered as chasing ? What am I looking for in terms of performance ? What’s my risk/reward ? Is it in my favor?
As a final aside from me, just reading J The Long OOTB comment re: BRICS dumping their gold. I guess the question will be: at which price will they dump it ? Coz if they were and are buying it like pancakes at 1400, 1300, 1200 and setting up huge vaults in Asia to store it, maybe the(ir) plan is not exactly to sell it at 1100, 1050, 1000, 900? But rather much higher than what they bought it at ? 🙂
Wishing you all a pleasant end of week-end.
Just a few hours for me to see if I’ll look like a total idiot or not.
Again, either way, I don’t put too much emphasis on monday’s move in the grand scheme of things (and that’s not a way to cover myself if gold moves down big time: I’ll likely be the first one to post “I was dead wrong” 🙂 ).
Best to all and GL as always,
LPG
Good post, LPG.
LPG….For what its worth, I don’t think you …will be dead wrong.
Great post…………thanks for the mention……………….OOTB…….
Hi LPG.. my man… are you cooking your lil crow meat.. a bit?.. :)…. just friendly teasing my man… I hope you’re right and dont have to.. :D… will see tmr morning..
Genesys,
Although I love cooking and like discover new things, I haven’t ventured into crows yet… we’ll see how it goes – and I’d like to keep them away from my plate as long as possible.
But sometimes, I admit, you gotta do what you gotta do…
We’ll see by the close today.
TC
LPG
As of this morning Dec 1…. you’re right so far! 🙂
Thanks for the comment LPG
Welcome AL and HAPPY BIRTHDAY.
Wishing you a pleasant celebration !
LPG
At what point will the miners start hedging gold and silver, something they should have done as soon as $1525 and $26.00 broke support……I guess all the CEO’s follow this blog….lol
JJ,
That’s the paradox of many mining executives ego’s at play. They will likely hedge at the bottom of the bear market when it’s ready to turn up. The general incompetence of mining management teams is stunning in its destructive nature.
This is why the M&A actions will have to take place for the most part because of bone-headed incompetent CEO’s and board members past bad business decisions will leave many of these companies on the brink of insolvency and necessitate combining profitable operations, competent management and firing others and shuttering unprofitable and politically risky properties world-wide.
The market and sheer survivability mode will force their hands.
In the future you won’t know it but thousands of incompetent former mining executives will be taking you’re order for burgers and fries at Mickey-D’s or selling used cars or home owners insurance by some fly-by-night company.
Yes but as Big Al would say V they are such nice guys, great guys! have a look at the sponsor list on the right….90% of these companies are getting killed YTD….but they are great guys…and we all know that’s a very important part of DD….how about the pm’s sector is in a clear BEAR market so don’t buy any of these jr’s who can run dry before the bear is done.
Buy these jr’s in a Bull market not now…..crazy!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’ll have a diet coke with my fries…..lol…..lol…..soooo true!
And how many of them have you personally met?
By the way rudeness from now on will not be tolerated.
Vortex….Your last sentence……HAHA
One thing for sure LPG,, one of us will eat a lil crow.. I’m in the plunge camp.
LOL
lol Chartster ! Good one !
Remember I keep some serious dry powder – I could use it if I see a biiiiiig mama crow ! 🙂
Best to you
LPG
LPG these are all good points you make.
It’s true. All these events have been priced in.
I said for weeks the Swiss vote would be like Scotland. They would do whatever it took to get a no vote. No one really believed there would be a yes vote.
So yes I agree it is practically priced in.
However my concern is not what has already been priced in, but no new event seems to be positive for gold either.
Think about it, just this week the French are making waves about wanting their gold back.
This should move gold. But it doesn’t.
I said for years now gold is dead on the board.
Hello James,
Marine le Pen is making some noise about gold in France… Doubt many care quite frankly about what she said on that matter.
IMHO, I think we can all start to really “rejoice” if we witness (1) the french president requesting audit + rapatriation AND (2) if he doesn’t accept a potential logistic excuse similar to the one given to and by Germany for the german gold taking ages to go back home.
Other than that, I don’t see any reason to rejoice coming from the french side. And given that that country doesn’t seem to give a damn about its gold, I don’t expect anything positive from that side.
However, having said all that, remember that quote: “expect the un-exepected… trust your DJ” 🙂 🙂 🙂 [ok, not related, I admit 🙂 ]
Best to you James,
LPG
+1 on LPG comments… I hope it’s the scenario… boy.. but Gary is starting to call 950 – 1050 now… poor gold
There is too much panic here. On Friday I couldn’t find anyone saying that the Swiss referendum would pass. The referendum not passing is no surprise but India removing their gold import rules has caught a lot of people by surprise.
Further to this, the oil price going down is a very good thing to happen to the gold miners. Yet they sold off. It also is the best thing to happen to India and the richer the Indians get the more gold they will buy. And everything indication is that physical metal being taken out of the west to the east.
Markets are nuts…..I can’t predict what gold will be the next few months but the way things are going I am almost 100% sure that gold will be higher a year from now. The black swans are circling. If I try to do a short term trade I could easily get locked out.
I am going to just hang on and ride this insanity out.
Good luck to all and thanks for your broadcast.
I could not agree more, Paul.
Paul…..Yes patience is the key.
And I too could not agree more Paul!
Paul W that is another positive news event I forgot to mention, the Indian import rules loosening, and yet gold doesnt go up on the news.
Dead on the board
The mainstream seems to be talking the news out of India down. It could be that there is so much smuggling going on now that it will not make a difference but I believe gold went down after the restrictions were brought in. I would give it a few weeks to see what happens but I think it can only add further to the squeeze being put on gold.
I think Gary is right, that the volume is a key indicator. Japan continues to implode, there is trouble in Euroland and big money is flowing. It would be a big mistake to say gold is dead.
A few more thoughts….
I see gold and USD going up together compared to other currencies. People with the USD blinders on won’t see it. This has been happening for weeks already. As gold physical is bought and taken off the market by the east, the paper markets will finally break down and it will finally start rising against the USD. When that happens the premiums will be so high that the little guy will lose going up as well as down. The ones getting in early will be much, much better off.
I have no idea on the timing of this….It could be one week or one year but I think it will happen :). It will be a roller coaster ride. GLTA.
More great thoughts, Paul. I would also not be surprised to see gold go up with the dollar. As John Exter’s pyramid shows, the dollar is the king of Marxist money while gold is the king of all money.
1. Remember, sell the rumor or buy the fact or vice versa.
2. My technicals at the close of Friday are not scary so don’t expect a huge down day even though we have a challenge to the previous low coming in the next 5-10 days.
3. Watch Asia pricing tonight; it’ll tell a story.
4. Just as geopolitical events are not helping this market, this event should ultimately be a nonplus.
5. I’ll continue to buy into selected gold stocks although the odds are some of the generals still have further to fall.
6. The commodities are going lower into next year and the PM aren’t going anywhere huge until they’re tired out on the low side—-although they should start heading higher prior to their lows.
Doc,
You’re a really smart guy that uses logic and reason to facilitate present and future actions and I appreciate your inputs on a daily and weekly basis.
You will, I have no doubt, be one of the winners in the end and will sidestep becoming road kill as this PM bull market reemerges and systematically reaches its irrational apex in the years ahead.
Yes, Doc will be one of the winners and I can guarantee that he knows it. 🙂
Thanks guys. I’ve seen this before—-kind of tells you my age. I’m a very patient guy and have waited for this opportunity for 3 years. This will not be a V recovery in these stocks but the best one possible—-most likely, you’ll have all the good companies bottoming in a trading range for some time. It’s the best since there’ll be no longer much downside and you will be able to take positions in the low end of the range. Then it’s going to be only a matter of time before the 200 week MAs meet pricing and the PM stocks will awake out of their doldrums and result in returns that will be unimaginable.
Doc, I happen to agree completely.
Richard,
On the “not a V recovery”, you sound like Rick Rule ! 🙂
I tend to agree with you though. The simple reason is that I don’t expect a V for gold itself.
So to me, as far as the stocks are concerned, it will be a gradually repricing (re-RATING) with the best ones moving the most and first. When cash flow (Free Cash Flow) goes back to positive territory, investors come back.
Gradual bottom is the perfect move/display for long, sustained re-rating, IMHO (as it shows that there’s not many believers in the asset class).
Without elaborating too much, I have experienced this pattern with some emerging/frontier markets with which I’ve been involved: massive dump(ster) for a few years just pre and post 2008, followed by gradual 3-4 yr bottoming process, then up 3-4x from the lows within the space of 3yrs.
PM stocks don’t have to perform the same way of these EM/FM… but if gold does a slow bottoming as I belive it is in the final stages of doing currently, then many PM stocks are likely to have this type of performance over a few years period – and maybe even more for some.
What helped me in considering a bottom for the EM/FM I was looking at were the combination of:
1) performance from peak (direction was down down down)
2) NEWSFLOW (most of the negative news that mattered were out)
3) sentiment was Fugly (f-ugly),
4) Valuation was at 0.3-0.4x Price/book for some companies that were still not only profitable (but P&L can be an accounting gimmick due to accounting funkiness) but generating cash (ie not destroying capital any longer)
and….
5) (something we don’t have w. PM stocks) volumes were super low (reflective of lack of interest from large market participants)
So at these levels, at that time, it was a matter of “buy right, sit tight”.
By the time newsflow became a tad more positive, volumes came back and the market(s) were saying: “Ciao Ciao bottom !!!”.
The key is that these EM/FM were small in size, so when liquidity came back, it was a ‘Hello ! Goooood morning !” moment for those left on the sidelines “watching”/contemplating in disbelief.
The small size reminds me of the relatively small size of the PM stocks.
So again, for me, when I loom at what happened to these EM/FM and look at the PM stocks space NOW, I cannot help but draw comparisons.
The only difference, as mentioned above, is that the bottom corresponded w. dire volumes for the EM/FM, something we don’t seem to have in the PM stocks space yet (as least, for the 20-30 something stocks I look at). And I think the difference is that in the PM stocks space, there is DEDICATED money for this, while for the EM/FM space I was looking at, there’s a bunch of other EM/FM on earth, and liquidity moves from one to another (besides, some EM/FM markets are VERY young, and prone to be misunderstood/not well understood, so dedicated EM/FM money typically goes to the safest one). So my point here is that the low trading volume phase might not occur for PM stocks because dedicated money is ALWAYS watching the space and will accumulate at what it considers a bottom. So a slow bottoming process might occur without low volumes…. It’s called “distribution” -> the moving of shares from weak hands to the strong ones. It occurs at tops, and it occurs at bottom too.
Just my 2cts.
Best to you and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Well said Vortex I very much agree.
Think your self like a smart money does. If I know that a few hours gonna have a selloff, I will buy all of them. For a smart money it will be a “black monday”…
you are known in the professional arena as ….’mr coin toss’….
you are thoroughly discredited at this point. korelin is merely kitco control stream..
Sally…..What!!!!!…Please explain.
10000000000% right sally!…..most accurate post of 2014
On a totally different topic, some seem to be starting to suspect that JPM is now net long silver… If that’s the case, I find this “interesting”.
Best,
LPG – preparing for a potential lil’ crow moment 🙂
LPG….If I was trading the markets I would do what JPM does, & the opposite of what Goldman says.
JPM-Goldman….Ying & Yang….They work together….two gangsters.
Irishtony,
I just had my duhhhh moment.
I tell people repeatedly about the GS part, but never thought about the JPM bit…
-> makes me feel like an idiot.
That might be a prelude for today’s gold price action… I might start to see crows circling already 🙂 🙂 🙂
Thanks for this post & Best,
LPG
Gary,
Great info. I certainly agree based on cycle timing, volume in recent weeks but also GOFO. Have you considered GOFO? Has not been this negative since 1999, perhaps ever after tomorrow. Interested in getting GARY’s thoughts and not most of other part time posters that jump on and off the bandwagon so much they have splinters. You know who you are…
Duke…..Come on be a sport & name names…..haha
NOT ME………….I figure with over 3500 shows to date….I have been here more than BIG AL………maybe BIG AL……is taking time off to get the splinters out…….lol
GOFO is another indication that a major long term bottom is about to form.
Do not think vote was priced in b/c gold actually a tiny bit up for the month (granted, 2 monster up days distorted). Well polling is over and the results will flow soon. We will soon see. Fear that like the OPEC case, we will see a sharp fall, exacerbated by dummy computerized trading that will sell at any price. And someone will blame the nasty manipulators.
Google ‘JPM fines’
Weak excuse for some who cannot admit it is a bear market. Other factors the cause for most of the 3 year downturn. If manipulation, then no point in considering gold as investment. This blog is unsafe – at times it sure seems like too little acceptance of reality and instead want to blame some evil somewhere
They do have an effect.
Surely the nasty manipulators are all part and parcel of the dummy computers, Derek?
Am just tired of hearing the manipulation complaint
ONE thing about a computer…….they do become dummy computers if you do not UPDATE THEM…………….
Miners are down 40%+ in last 8 weeks alone. Miners are down 85%+ in last 3 years.
The bloodbath i would think already happened in last 8 weeks. Can miners extend bloodbath from 40% to another 40% in next 10 days by making it total of 80%+ on top of already 85% loss in last 3 years. Makes no sense at all. That’s like calling 700$ gold.
I see everyone now calling for $1000 gold and there are some fools calling 900 and 500 gold. That’s when bottom is formed. Same situation when fools were calling $200 silver at 45$ silver. Let’s see what happens. We might have put in bottom already at 1137. Virtually everyone is calling now for $1000 gold.
THINK ABOUT IT!!!!
GOOD POINT……………………………………………….J………………OOTB
Stewie,
FWIW, the recent bottom was closer to 1132.
Rick’s mention of 1137 as a potential bottom has so far been “invalidated” by that move on Nov 7.
Best,
LPG
1130.40 according to Stockcharts.
Yes and once that is broken 1077/1075 is next target. And so on and so forth. We just keep making lower lows and lower highs. When will this stop?
It has to be the bottom because I said in 2013 that the worst case scenario was 1155-1125 😉
Lol Matthew !
If gold moves down big on Monday, enough to break 1125, I’ll keep some leftovers of my lil’ crow for you 🙂 🙂 🙂
LPG
Thanks LPG, I’ll see if I can find a good recipe. I’m breakin’ out the silverware for this!
WOW!!!! FANTASTIC MATTY……you are THE best, yet YOU made NO MONEY SHORTING!! what a trader……or really the label should be long side only salesmen….hmmm
Stewie I wouldn’t call jj/bird/myself/vortes/skeeta/marty/etc etc etc fools. Some have been calling these prices for months and possibly years.
Do you remember what you wrote on friday/saturday about swiss vote and gold bottom in?
Glen, gold hasn’t made a new low yet.
stewie……….count me out I cant see $1000 gold.
Massive volume in miners for last 4 weeks says smart money has ALREADY been buying miners then so is smart money wrong. Volume is telling the story. I can see another 10-15% down day in miners but coming bloodbath on top already one bloodbath and on top another 3 yr bloodbath seem too extreme to me but i’ve been wrong before and nothing makes sense. The volume in miners says capitulation is happening right now or already happened NOT THAT IT’S COMING. I’ve doubled up on friday. I willl triple up if 1050 happens.
Stewie; you’re correct. Smart money is starting to move into the miners. They may not catch the absolute bottom but just want to take positions. They’re going to have to wait for rewards but many of them are buy and hold in these positions.
Richard, how come you’ve never made any money this year shorting the pm’s sector? Your indicators only work for long positions?…..its a trick question.
JJ; I do shorts but rarely. I have made money this year on some shorts. I hate short squeezes. By the way, if you have read what I’ve been saying I did talk about oil moving down significantly. That’s a short I’ve been very comfortable with.
I agree Richard.
On small markets, it’s tough to catch the bottom coz the liquidity is not there – so it’s tough to build large, sizeable positions.
So large institutions have to buy at levels they like and start to accumulate, accumulate.
It’s easier to wait longer on VERY liquid stocks… but on low liquidity/very illiquid stocks, it’s not possible…. the ONLY time when liquidity is abundant is when stocks get trashed with gold falling $20-30 in a day, like what happened a few weeks back late Oct/early Nov.
Support level broken -> sell orders -> stop orders hit -> avalanche of sellers -> much more liquidity ==> Great opportunity to get a large amount of shares for large institutions.
Just my 2cts,
LPG
Stewie id leave some money just in case 1050 breaks cause then you will have to quadruple up lol..
I’ll be nibbling stocks at 1050 gold if it occurs… and get some more Jan 2016 GLD/SLV calls…
I’m really considering changing from “LPG” to “LPG Pacman” 🙂
The wusses voted no, how stupid is the man in the street even in a country like Switzerland, the media knows how to stick it to the great unwashed. This only reinforces my opinion that common sense never mattered. Bullsh*t baffles Brains.
DT, it’ll come up for a vote again at the top of the market. We can count on it passing then!
+1 DT
I remember being in a car accident many years ago.
My wife to be was driving.
We snapped a tie rod and was literally spinning all over the highway with no control of the wheels.
We literally did a 180 and was facing the oncoming traffic.
It only lasted about 4 seconds but it seemed like a lifetime.
All I can remember saying to myself was “I don’t know when this car is going to stop but when it does it’s going to hurt.
Same thing here.
We walked out without a scratch
I think it will be more like what happened to me in Wyoming several years ago. I was on a two lane highway covered in black ice pulling a snowmobile on a flatbed with my F350 when I noticed deer on the road ahead. To avoid touching the brakes, I flicked my exhaust brake and downshifted to the next lower gear, but that was enough to cause the rear tires to break free and, in a blink, a jackknife. Incredibly, I did a complete 360 but managed to stay on the road and even straighten out and keep going. Luckily, the only oncoming traffic was several hundred yards ahead. The only damage was a crease in the rear quarter panel of the truck where the trailer frame hit.
I’m sure that I would have to change my underwear if that ever happened to me.
That’s really interesting. Years ago I was heading for home from medical school on a winter night on a 4 lane highway—–it was about 11 PM with hardly a car on the road. I was driving the Volkswagen owned by the anthropologist (asleep) in the passenger seat next to me. A deer walked out into the highway in my land and was moving toward the inner lane. We were going about 70 MPH and I had absolutely no where to go. I took the choice and headed toward the right shoulder. Unfortunately, there was ice and we hit it resulting in a sliding motion sideways. The Volkswagen then landed on its side (my side) and we slid down the road. The anthropologist woke up and I remember him looking down at me incredulously wondering what was going on. I said to him; “Don, hang on; we’re going for a ride”. It was then that we began to roll end over end down the road. Finally, we came to rest with the now completely totaled Volkswagen on its’ 4 tires. The roof was caved in and we had to crawl out the smashed former front window. After we exited and were greatful we were alive, a druck driver drove up from behind. He came running over and asked if we were okay. He then said: “I’ve been driving for 30 years and that’s the greatest accident I’ve ever seen. I can’t imagine you guys are alive.”
I fell out of an airplane two years ago, fell 10,000ft, only reason I’m still alive today is because I landed in a pile of GoldBug BS…..I think today I’d survive a 20,000ft fall…..lol
Well I will state the obvious here. JJ, your comment here is disgusting.
tell me about it Derek, it stunk real bad! and all the goldbug pumping since 2011 is even more disgusting….how many have been absolutely destroyed holding long positions bought in 2009-2012….
JJ, I love your comments… you’re a rockstar !
This rockstar is pretending he wasn’t a buyer like so many others here just before the 2013 crash. His comments show that he was.
TEN MINUTES TILL SHOW TIME………….
GRAB THE POP CORN……………
TIME IS UP…………………………….
SOMEONE JUST OPENED THE TRAP DOOR……………………
1157
I’m watching it on one browser tab with another tab on captain america 2…… quite fun… as nothing I can do but watch from whatever I see from both screens…
Gary
Is that a pig i hear in the back ground?
Peter
Who wants to call the over under
Down $100 tonight into tomorrow
Over or under?
Down to 1136, bounce back to 1166, then straight down to 1050ish. GDX to 14.5 before all over and done with. Nothing to do with Swiss vote. Lets see what happens….
The vote and OPEC decision is just the excuse to initiate the final selling climax.
+1 although I personally opted to think for “the final selling PHASE” and not think about “CLIMAX” (for me, a climax on the way down implies a massive drop or a washout). [but maybe we’re discussing the same thing]
If I’m wrong about the Climax, esp. today, it’s crow time ! 🙂
LPG
Man.. that was quite close… down to 1143 and back… but not 1166 yet…
Let the Swiss be dammed
I’m sitting in a Greenwich Village pizzeria on Bleecker St. watching gold tank and wondering why I ever left horse racing?
I’m going to drown my sorrows in some pizza and beer and color the town
“John’s” brick oven pizza?
Good stuff back in the 80s.
Don’t worry about losing,
Now you’re a Philosopher!
…lol….
BDC yes Johns. Not as good as some of the others in NYC like Di Faras and Lucalis but still a nice slice.
I will try not to look at the price. I just set a few buy orders for every 5% drop in silver. I now seriously betting the primary silvers mines going under.
With the reduction in silver production coupled with decline in base metal by-products, the price will find a balance to above the miner production cost.
Matthew WOW what a story
We both survived those near death experiences, after thst this is a walk in the park
James….Having survived cancer , NOTHING bothers me. If my Silver & Gold holdings go to zero..I don’t GAF………..
I bet, Tony. Talk about putting things in perspective.
Rick Rule said he made his first “Bingo” (my word, not his) on an uranium stock, if my memory is right.
I calculated he added his last tranche at 95% below his first buy.
The lesson for me about this: it takes guts to make it.
Guts, belief in oneself, and a good understanding about where we’re putting the money (allocating the capital). I suspect that for Rick, when he added at 95% lower from his first buy tranche, the risk/reward was worth the risk.
GL to all,
LPG
I’ve had much closer calls. I also totaled a CBR 600 on I-40 about 20 years ago and walked away with just road rash. I never knew how painful road rash could be.
Then there was that 300zx twin turbo I had. It was so completely destroyed after an altercation with an apple tree that the cop who showed up had a very hard time believing that I was the driver. He actually thought that I was covering for someone who had fled the scene.
The only bones I ever broke were on the motocross track. There’s nothing like motocross!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCfGmLvWu4A
Peter knowing GARY that isnt a pig in the background but a chameleon
🙂
Pri-ce-less James….
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO
Peter
Well at the moment silver’s down 3 cents on my screen and gold 15 dollars – not as bad as I feared – maybe the Swiss vote was already priced in? We will soon see…
I talked to several friends in oil patch during the week end. I heard that even the most profitable companies are planning cut. Hiring freeze is the first step. Oil companies react much quicker than PM sector.
Lawrence you’ll want to hear this audio, very well done, I’m assuming your Canadian….its interesting that the outline is exactly what the pm’s miners have gone thru…..
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2014/11/plunging-oil-prices-plunging-economy/
I listen to this radio a lot. Danielle has been bearish on all the market since 2008. Very bearish on DOW and S&P
If these levels or something close to them holds tonight and through the morning, traders will sense a bottom and the swiss vote was priced in, and the miners will rise tomorrow… and Gary will be back to saying a bottom was in. This is mostly dollar dependent and the USD is up against serious overhead resistance and is not moving much.
Still waiting Matty for you to show your charts using your indicators of DUST and JDST YTD performance, which obviously would not show buying and selling every turn perfectly but its shows the fantastic % gains made by using the same chart indicators everyone here only uses for long trades….Doc, Gary, anybody!
jj…..still waiting for yours & Matthews earnings
This was in response to Gator, using the same indicators that Matty uses when he’s long and when Doc suggest long positions, so you tell me Irish is this a goldbug BS site or a we care lets make money site?
300+% shorting the pm’s sector this year and the years not over and I never nailed the turns once in Dust just the confirmations…..only 70% and 50% and 30% off the Jan, June, Nov bull runs using Nugt….up 20% alone today buying DWTI at the open off OPEC news
wow… $113x here we come so fast..
we’re just getting started.
Fecking hell……Silver down a $1….GS ratio 78………………HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tony, I don’t think it makes any dif what jj has made, he has been right.
The way to go has been short, absolutely no doubt about it, for 3 years+.
The guys here have been trying to catch bounces at best, profit has been short, and jj makes a darn good point, experienced guys should have seen it LLoooonnnggg ago.
Its a legitimate question, “why havnt they?”
input is great and all, but wrong input is costly.
The question remains, how far is gold going to drop?
Could still go down to who knows? 400? 300?
Might not know until it stays somewhere for a year or two.
thank you! bb…..EXACTLY my point, I’m not any better than any other chartist, but I live and die by the indicators and if ones has the stones if its not going up its going down so I make money no matter where it trades…..
bb…yes I agree he (jj) has being right shorting the market , the only thing I don’t like about him is his snide remarks.
Irish, I understand.
The attitude develops over time I think.
Being correct repeatedly at the same time being told your a “dingbat” has its effect.
I have been watching, I attempt to make money by selling strength and rebuying weakness, but using hgd (gold down) has by FAR been the more profitable way to go.
I have no idea about actually “shorting”
JJ, makes good points about contributors here, he feels experienced people that give their opinions publicly should know this stuff.
“goldbugs” which are rampant, of course will disagree with him, they see only what they want, but the facts are what they are, gold down has been the way to go, it will turn around of course.
I look forward to that as I personaly need a raging bull to make significant money.
At that point pretty much anything in the PM space will make good money, selective picking or not.
BB, it looks like you also do not understand that not everyone (even very knowledgeable big money!) likes to play the short side or trade constantly.
As I pointed out earlier, jj was a buyer before the 2013 crash. Why didn’t he know better then and why was he so much less obnoxious?
As a long-term investor I am buying. Have plenty of cash on the sideline. $17.25 for 2014 silver eagles w/ free shipping is not bad.
we are in the dead of the nite……………..
Gary
Your my kind of guy who knows how to make obscene amounts of money before the botton is actually in.
Keep up the good work.
Peter
Peter
$14.12 silver low
$1142 gold
78:1 GSR
I think that bullion banks heavily exposed are betting the farm on shorting into spectacularly good fundamentals for gold.
If 1030 is overrun, then the following paradigm is blown:
THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWyCCJ6B2WE
THE TOTAL BRAINWASHING MAGIC OF MANIPULATION ! THE DEVIL WORK ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_jle2aiI0w
The problem with Gary Doc and Rick is they are interpreting the PM market as a real market with real demand and real supply. Nothing is further from the truth. This is complete and utter manipulation where paper derivatives act completely outside the rules and laws of economics. This crash will continue until the system blows up. Don’t look for market trends – there are none.
Between Friday action and action so far now, looks like Armstrong’s call for a pop in gold is having trouble. He said that Thursday/Friday – ‘pop into next week’.
Yeah.. I saw his article too.. Gold Revival…. it’s amazing to learn… A person like him can be wrong too.. 🙂
You are ball a bunch of WUSSESS; didn’t you expect the Great OZ to pull a few levers and push down the POG.
I am betting that this the beginning of the capitulation that few have been waiting/hoping for. This may mark the beginning of the end of a brutal bear market and I agree with Gary, without a capitulation it could have dragged out until summer. This is the final puke that was definitely needed. A lot of factors are lining up really well here. I will be buying miners heavy at the open up to 50% of my ultimate position and the remaining 50% on any nasty dry heaves over the next 10-15 days. Best of luck all.
Duke you are right this is the Puke. The one Rick Rule spoke of!
Agreed but it doesn’t mean that there is still a secular bull on the run. Could be an enormous recovery in the miners like in 1981 IMHO.
Hi Dan, for now, the secular bull market is very much intact. Higher highs and higher lows…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63222868881&a=366074617
Gary
150% rally of ” 0″ is zero.
Peter
lol… good one Peter… out of 0.1 is just 0.15… quite pitiful
The biggest factor is GOFO. It is saying there is very little gold right now to be had. With these puke prices India, China, Russia etc will be buying hard. What is happening is completely counterintuitive to basic supply and demand. There is a line backer at full run called demand headed towards this little game of manipulation. The SGI is merely a distraction. I have a feeling that linebacker demand is about to mow through the manipulators.
Duke you are an American because nobody else is getting these prices, having said that do you think The US is being duped.
The trouble with Americans is they think that nobody can out think them, are they in for a surprise.
I’m Canadian and your comment makes no sense whatsoever.
Duke, I recall norcini saying gofo is bs at best, so far, for 3 years he has been right.
My point, ALL demand has been met, not 1 single shortage ever in 3 years minimum.
Mints runs out? so what?, they have planned the amount they needed well, they run out every year.
All this shortage,gofo etc is noise to deceive, ALL demand has been met, and tomorrow morning at the coin shop will be all the PM a person could want.
Norcini also says manipulation is BS. So what is he saying now? That GOFO is manipulated but the price of gold is not? Now that is BS.
I only make a point Duke, bs no bs, norcini has been right, maybe his figuring is wrong but he has still been right and has been right about the swiss vote too.
His point recently was the vote was holding the price up, which it was, yup,yup.yup. everyone was expecting a no, but the vote was holding the price up.
No vote comes and down it goes, what is so hard for people to recognise short has been where the profits are?
I do believe guys like norcini, goldbugs is almost a religion, doesn’t matter what reality is, goldbugs only see what they want.
No big deal, its everyones right and all, but sure not profitable.
JJ, you gotta start to realise nobody is going to listen to you, they never listened to bird and that guy is extremely smart, people here refused to recognise it calling him rude as they call you now. They wont get the point “nice guys” mean nothing, profit is what its about. Their just not gonna “get it” Sorry to say really but I understand how goldbugs get related to religion.
Once we hit about 1000 we may start up again, if the Chinese increase buying, if they don’t, down it goes.
Might depend on wether they take orders from the same banks we do or not.
Maybe Karen Hudas hoard is real too.
The Swiss electorate, like The Scottish electorate, are tools of the modern state.
We are in a deflationary environment, but I really think we will return to a stable monetary system that has meaning by being backed with gold.
Not in our lifetimes.
The Swiss voted loud and clear.
Gold has no role in the new economy.
They made it clear
They don’t want, need or care about gold.
NIKKEI JUST HIT A 7 year high!
That’s what people want!
James, if you believe what you just said: then you can’t think for yourself, selling out is what happens when you vote for the welfare state.
It’s finally time to be positive. This is what I’ve been waiting for over the last 3 years. It’s time to look at the movement of gold down as your friend. Forget about the gold price and look at the final leg down for a lot of the miners that will be around in the future. Look at the prices you’re going to see in the next few days and weeks. It will be time to hold your nose and buy. This will be the blood running in the streets scenario. This should be what we’ve all been waiting for.
Richard, I don’t think the markets will return at any time to something that is normal we are in for some real surprises.
I totally agree with you. I’ve been chomping at the bit for this last wash !
This is Merry Christmas!!
I might prove to be wrong, but I’d say +1 with Richard.
Risk/Reward on a few years time frame for me is what I consider.
Best
LPG
Just my humble observation about this site… most guys coming here (I assume) hoping to learn some techniques or thoughts from musketeers/other readers which eventually leads them to make their own decision/money…. I dont think anyone expects to come here and be called by someone on the other side of network/keyboard “stupid, joke, dumb” or any kind of disrespect as if we’re in slave trade or british landlord era. Some try to be a leader claiming he/she is best of all but ridiculously no one gives any respect to… (as much as I admit his/her view/profit is good for that person… but what’s the point of being a leader that no one follows?)…. Something common I see among Doc/Gary/Rick/Matthew/Glen/Chris T/etc…. are their implied relationships to the participants of this site as teacher-student and in reverse too sometimes…. at least ppl here can learn something from even though their calls are “more wrong than right” (that’s from their mouth not mine.)
Just my humble opinion and not intended to start any word wars on anyone… why not just put some charts/thought process that you live/die making money with and just focus on that… and let ppl judge themselves how stupid they’re without someone calling them out or let ppl respect how smart you’re with your trading/investing skill without you calling it yourself.
I’m really sick of some disrespectful/useless comments ranting around even if I admit those comments are right… It used to be very peaceful and full of exchanges of something very good to learn from. Not anymore since gold starts to go down and someone is making some profit and calling out someone stupid starts to appear…..
Genesys; well said. The last time I checked, there is not a perfect human being on this planet. If I’m ever disrespectful to anyone on the site, I hope you call me on it. Recently, I had a couple poke at me a little concerning the fact that I was warning folks not to get too excited about the move up over the last 3 weeks and to be careful not to “go all in”. Would I have liked to rub their noses in it. Maybe, a little. However, what does that kind of attitude accomplish—-absolutely nothing. I learned a long time ago that even if you disagree with someone and that person is irascible, they probably have something in their lives that they’re wrestling with and if I would walk in their shoes and feel their pain, why add more hurt and pain to their existence. I really appreciate reading input from a multitude of individuals and that’s how you often learn. No one has a monopoly on truth.
Thank you Doc… for adding to my comment… you’re the model I look at and I’m copying… keep up with your excellent work/commentary/newsletter!
I agree also about Doc. I don’t know the guy personally but his tone/voice makes it obvious he is a man of integrity/ethics and so forth. Same goes with all of them.
Truely what it is I see how our generous Doc has trained himself to become how he is now..
Well put Richard.
Something just struck me:
although we have a few lines of comments for fun here and there (for ex., if I write “lol, good one, it’s considered as 1 comment, although we agree it has no investment value”, have you guys realized the AMOUNT OF COMMENTS on this particular thread….?????
Extreme emotions ????
I take it as a “market indicator”, personally.
And everyone started to comment more that 12hrs ago…
It’s “amazing” to me.
I might be wrong, but to me this is telling…
Best,
LPG
genesys,
Great post buddy! Im all for peace,respect and ego’s aside. We should all be thankful that we have a site like this run by Al and cory and the 4 muskateers.
Exactly Glenfidish! +1
This move will be the semi-carbon copy of the move down from February of 2013 to June of 2013. That was a 450 dollar drop. This one won’t be as steep and prolonged and the dollar drop will not be as extreme. That was a 5 month drop while we’re already three months into this one. What an opportunity for those who purchase and will be willing to wait. Personally, I have not been positive until now for the PM sector.
The Swiss had a choice. they choose what they felt was in their best interest.
The Swiss were duped!
James, really are you that naeve.
It would have been stupid for them to vote, yes. It would have really hurt their international trading. Totally would have been a bone headed move!
They already have more bullion per capita than any other country. Their currency is solid!
I agree w. you James.
But I’d note that when the sheep goes to the cliff before falling, it also thinks it’s in its best interest to go to the cliff and jump…
My 2 cts.
LPG
Richard,
Been a hell of a long 3.5 years.. Lol
It has, Chartster; the end of the move down for the miners is getting close. Watch the $crb sell off big time as well. Copper is getting crushed along with other commodities. The washout is now upon us.
Guys.. like someone knowing is about to die…. would prey for the killer “Please be quick and dont keep too long” 🙁
Lol genesys ! stay with us !
This is where it might start to get interesting very very soon !
LPG
Richard you say you have been waiting for this for three years
Yet when gold was in a range between $1800 and $1600 and I said the parabolic move was over you said you never saw a parabolic move end thst way.
My response was it hadn’t ended.
That was a wrong a call as ever there was one
And James; I was referring to a secular bull market. I still believe we’re in a secular bull market and you may remind me of that in about 5 years.
James, you are always quick to judge others but really how close have you been yourself. Listening to you is like paying attention to a child in primary grades.
Look at the positive of the swiss people’s vote. Once again, it tends to give the bankers carte blanche to continue to move toward more money creation along with currency manipulation. It’ll extend the move toward un-reversible insolvency. Over time, it cannot get more positive for the PMs. It’ll be interesting to watch what the COT is next Friday. Once you see the commercials start reversing their positions, you can know we’re heading toward a reversal.
That is worth listening to.
and it’s quite a set up too that we had no COT for this immediate past week as it’s on holiday…. oh boy… the angel of luck is always on the cartel side..
Really, does any of this diatribe matter, gold the physical kind will protect any investor that is worried about their portfolio.
Dick Tracy
I at least tell it like it is
Dick Tracy I’ve made my position clear.
I don’t hedge with double speak
Dick Tracy gold the physical will protect anyones portfolio
Now who’s being naive
People confuse the truth with being critical
Dock Tracy the Swiss were duped
Keep getting your news from KWN and zerohedge
I guess only a Comex or LBMA default can stop this madness. They have taken price to the level most miners cannot survive. PM needs to be mined unlike paper money.
this huge price drop in silver looks like stopped out a lot of traders.
I tend to agree on that… only an obvious default on comex can stop this… or probably… when CBs have a pad at gold’s back.. like ECB buying gold.. then it could stop…. nothing else even war matters.
Gary,
You was wrong about oil and gold
Let’s put the PM sector into proper context. Did you know that almost 18 months ago, GDX had a price of about 22; 12 months ago about 20.5. Friday’s close was 18.36. What does that tell us?—–we’re in a huge broad bottoming pattern which could extend well into 2015. Remember when we had a price of 65. Most of the washout was the first 2 years. We are now haltingly moving lower. The massive move down has already occured.
And we’re down about 1% YTD on spot gold.
Most pundits wanna make us believe that it’s been a horrible year????
It hasn’t been great, that’s for sure, and maybe we’ll end up the year at -10%….
But so far, it HAS NOT BEEN ugly. It just has not been great.
Why is sentiment so bad while perf is not ugly ? Because we had a nice move earlier this year and many of us likely thought: “that’s it, we’re back on: 1600 by year-end”.
It’s all about expectations I suppose.
My 2cts
LPG
Quietly, hoping no one would notice……
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/30k-missing-irs-emails-recovered/article/2556522
Background material for impeachment is found.
A few points: I recall some suggestions that rising input costs, ie, oil, as reasons for pain in the miners. Could the drop in oil spark a rally? And, the weak $, along with American know-how, ie fracking, has sparked a renaissance, if you will, in US manufacturing. So, I must think rallying $ & falling oil prices can impact that trend negatively. If so, will we see higher unemployment as the energy space has really only been the net producer of jobs over the last several years? Or, can the consumer cost savings prompted by weaker gas prices offset the job loss impact in the energy space that could ensue? What could this mean for equities? Confusing times.
Chico; excellent points and contradictions.
Did you see the price of silver it is now below $15. I think it could fall below $10.
Do you want to be sitting in the warming seats or do you want to own the real thing. Platinum, palladium, and silver will never take you to The World Series.
Dick Tracy says
On November 30, 2014 at 7:07 pm,
Dick Tracy says:
Do you want to be sitting in the warming seats or do you want to own the real thing. Platinum, palladium, and silver will never take you to The World Series.
Reply to this comment
That statement makes absolutely no sense
I don’t have a margin account either, my options are the etfs, like hgd, gold down.
I think we are beginning to see where the REAL markets are, with premiums quite high for large quantity buyers (see Rob Kirby on USA Watchdog tonight). Some analysts have been saying for a long time, at least a few years, that in the end the REAL price of gold will be determined by the physical market, as it always has been.
There is that possibility, a very real one, that one morning those short the paper gold market will wake up to losses that will make them run to the bathroom very quickly. Of course that running to the bathroom will be a luxury they can’t afford as they are trying to get out of their trade.
It’s all about ounces and has been for thousands of years. Forget about the bankers dollar price.
Have a good evening.
Gold price has stabilised the last few hours,
Will look forward to the London open (which will be later tonight after dinner for me over here).
Might get to see some more fireworks then ?
Will have to wait & see. 🙂
London opens,
So far a pop up just like Marty said ?…lets see how it pans out ?
ATM….I’d say Gary has absolutely no idea of either the gold or oil markets.
But theres always manipulation to fall back upon I guess….funny that.
Cheers.
JJ. Can u guide us when u see a good time to jump into JNUG and vice versa in JDUST? I was going to sell my JNUG last wednesday and buy JDUST but changed my mind and thought i would wait till Fridays open to do so. That delay cost me big.
As long as China,India and Russia is buying who cares what the banks or traders are doing
Based on weekly and monthly closing prices, I think Friday was the low for silver. Could December 1st mark the absolute low?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78918671856&a=378548449
OMG… I wish I wish… now gold $1196… hope it holds… been so long…so long.
Your call a bit ago that the tax loss selling might be muted this December is looking correct. Would you sell something now for TLS if there is a possible quick 20 or 50% recovery in the PMs? Bob Hoye calls it the “get me in” phase. I am playing a bounce here.
I would only consider TLS on a bounce for the lower quality stuff in my portfolio. Of course, overbought readings, if they happen, would make the decision to sell (some) very easy.
Thanks Matthew, obviously I am swing trading.
Cory,
Have you notice my long term call on gold/silver ratio? Remember all those months I said the stars need to align? You were my biggest supporter. Well tonight as I type we are at 77! I had called for at least 78/80/ How is that for a prediction lol.
Glen I remember your call of GSR 78. Good call. Thanks
Lawrence thx.. But just when I think we’re headed down we get pop lol. The volatility is unbelievable.
JJ. Can u guide us when u see a good time to jump into JNUG and vice versa in JDUST? I was going to sell my JNUG last wednesday and buy JDUST but changed my mind and thought i would wait till Fridays open to do so. That delay cost me big
I’d beg JJ would join our community that way… sharing his precious knowledge.. but he seems to be day-trader… could be difficult to him when he focuses on market…. just my guess…
interesting that oil drops in price as new technology produces diesel from CO2.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEUQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slashgear.com%2Fgermanys-sunfire-makes-synthetic-gasoline-from-water-co2-22356956%2F&ei=hwx8VLKoN-_DiQKd9IGIDQ&usg=AFQjCNGvt5xs5gshLYAXjwpNM5D5nROkwQ&sig2=mq2sFW2tsdVSYch6mR8i9A&bvm=bv.80642063,d.cGE
Cool! That is a game changer and the proper way to do Carbon Capture. Just don’t capture too much and kill are plant life (;-)
Alberta has lots of Carbon Dioxide and Canada has the most fresh water and lakes in the world. Hmmmmm.
Gold at $1164: 9.37 am GMT Dec 1st. Is this as bad as it gets?
WELL WELL………………LOOKS LIKE CHINA WANTS ALL THE GOLD………………
GOLD UP…………….BYE BYE
Might be worth a read:
‘When an oil man sees $30 a barrel, it’s time to sound contrarian alarms ‘
If oil keeps falling does it keep taking down other commodities with it?
RUSSIANS will be at the shores off the coast of AMERICA…………when oil is $30
the ALARMS will not be contrarian, but,,,,,COLD WAR RESUMED………….
ONE MONTH GOLD LEASE RATE……………..UP ………. .74
GOLD UP………….ABOVE LONDON SPOT…………………….
Gonna be a wild one today. If gold can close above 1180 then the odds are probably good that the final low came in early Nov. If it loses the reversal and closes near the lows of the day then we probably have 5-10 days into a final bear market bottom.
Gonna be a wild one today. If gold can close above 1180 then the odds are probably good that the final low came in early Nov. If it loses the reversal and closes near the lows of the day, then we probably have 5-10 days into a final bear market bottom.
CHECK LONDON SPOT………
thanks for putting out opinion quick Gary…
TOO THE MOOOOOOOOOOOON…………………..
gold almost 1200 again, whats happened to 300?
Jack Chan figures we have a ways down to go yet.
USD finally broke out of the multi year consolidation and base building, and above the 200ema for the first time in over a decade. This is not supportive for the metals for a long time to come.
Summary
Long term – on major sell signal since Mar 2012 when $HUI was at 550.
Short term – on buy signals.
Gold sector cycle – up as of 11/14.
COT data suggests a major bottom is not in yet for the metals
Hes been making good observations for awhile now.
So stress free just to make monthly physical purchases.
🙂
J,
The plunge is still coming. This is all head fake
After the market closed on Friday:
On November 28, 2014 at 10:49 am,
Matthew says:
I wouldn’t be too concerned about the action on the day of any central bank decision that is positive for gold. They ALWAYS hit gold at such times.
I bought GDXJ calls right into the lows today. We’ll know soon if I am going to regret it.
I only stay away from options because I was an idiot and let someone else manage them. I may get brave enough to dabble in them a bit.
The MAGICE OF 100 % manipulation ! BUY BUY You cant explain manipulation day play YOU !
Day play you ! 100 % manipulation !
I think the hardest thing these next few weeks will be the volatility. I’ve decided to watch from the sides for now. Sold on Friday and have not re-entered on the short trading portfolio. Im working on my patience. Tuff thing to do so far after an hour of trading today.
I’m really glad I didn’t panic and listen to Gary on this one! Gold up $25 Monday morning…..man this is a hard market.
His comments are on his own… the decision is yours… but you got the right decision man… good one.
If anyone thinks he can trade this market, he may become ground beef soon.
LOL
So far we are par for the silly looking factor. (everyone)
The last few days have been pretty interesting, and it ain’t over!
New high of about 78 but RSI is not near a high and ratio is touching the 50 dma. If you extend the chart out a year you will see that last time this happened the ratio went under the 50 dma for awhile. All IMHO only.
Just wanted to share my in depth insight into this market.. after the last 20 hours trading in Gold and Silver I have absolutely no idea what will happen in the next month!
Bob…..i’ll take silly…..
This thread is at its limits I think. Not posting in order anymore.
gary 1055 is gonna be a solid support.A bear flag has formed (pole from 1255 to 1130 and flag up to 1207)Flag is perfectly formed between parallel trendlines and it has already been breached at 1179 thus 1179 – (1255-1130) =1055.Having said that I dont think that that is gonna be the ultimate bottom.My gut feeling is telling me that another lower low is possible.Target imho for the ultimate low is 960.DYDD guys and gl whatever your position..
testing
Wasn’t this move choreographed by the institutional buyers that went in on November 7? They were aware of the Swiss vote and used the last 3 weeks to accumulate and take advantage of all the shorts and liquidity going into yesterday’s vote. Thoughts?
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/11/golden-bottom-ii.html