Most everything is up today… how long can it go for?
Richard ‘Doc’ Postma weighs in on the move in gold and the US markets. Should we be getting excited about a new bull run?
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Good thoughts today Doc, Al, Cory. I’ll be interested to see how the day closes in Oil, Gold, the Dollar/Euro/Yen, bonds and the major stock indexes.
What has my attentions today is how much Platinum and in particular Palladium are up on a percentage basis. Wow.
Told ya………………couple of weeks ago..it looked good….lol
before the next year is out, I bet the ratios reverse………..jmho
Do you mean the normal Gold to Platinum ratios?
It is odd what a discount Platinum is to Gold at present if that is what you mean.
Yes, I should have stated that…….
Yes, in 2016 I also expect Platinum to retake Gold in price.
We now have two members of the CCF ….crazy contrarian fund.
I just averaged down in my Platinum Group Metals position. Beyond the points that the share-price is oversold, and that Platinum and Palladium are snapping back; it is also a synchronicity that they just released this Pre-Feasibility process update earlier today. Maybe I’m a fool, but I still think this company has a great deal of potential for fundamental reasons. (the chart however is pretty ugly)
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Platinum Group Metals Ltd.: Waterberg Project Update Additional Thick and Shallow Intercepts Resource Update in Progress Pre-feasibility Engineering Continues
12/04/2015 – VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA and JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA
– (Marketwired) — 12/04/15 — Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (TSX: PTM)(NYSE MKT: PLG)
Volume today in PLG is 3 times the 10 day normal average. Interesting.
The only thing that concerns me is that they’ve had to disclose several times to the SEC that there hasn’t been any material reason for their share sliding as bad as they have. They even highlighted it at the bottom of today’s press release.
In the past, when these kinds of developments played out, quality companies with a beaten down share-price have had to roll back the shares in a reversed split. This is the downside risk, but the upside looks much more enticing.
I think South Africa says it all……..corruption number one rule………jmho
Yes, I think that the difficulty that S. African miners, the government, and the unions have had is like a cancer in the mining area down there.
However like we discussed in the past Frank, I am interested to see how Sibayne Gold shakes things up, as it is now the 3rd biggest PGM producer in S. Africa after their acquisition of Anglo Platinum’s Rustenburg mines, and their takeover offer for Aquarius Platinum. I like that the Sibanye Gold CEO Neal Froneman gave the government and unions a reality check and wrote and open letter to them to get real, or the whole industry there is going down the toilet. Since many thousands have lost their jobs in the depressed pricing environment, maybe a more balanced offer can be reached between the companies, their staff, the government, and the unions.
What I like about Platinum Group Metals, is that they have one of the last pieces of real estate left along one trend that has not been mined, where all the older companies are very very deep now. The have the decline built, they are well funded with $110 million, and have JV partners developing the mining plan.
In addition, they have hit a bonanza-grade discovery in a newly developing PGM trend (they own 100% of that one), and this gives them 2 amazing assets that will likely make it into production in the next 2 years.
Lastly, to deal with the mining costs and labor challenges, they are going to be using a fair amount of shallow robotic mining, and this may prove to be a game-changer. Multiple shallow pits versus the deep pits, robots can work 24/7 and don’t get tired, die, or go on strike.
I have a nice position in place now, and feel the high risk may be worth the candle and speed-bumps along the way. We’ll see how it goes……. I may be the first customer of the Precious Metals Depends. 🙂
Depend on it……………OOTB
great comments ………..
Cory, how dare you disagree with mr. manilpulation (aka Savage)!! 😉
Sorry but I don’t follow your criticism of why analysts take an interest in what OPEC does, Doc. That part of your interview made no sense to me because there is no question that what OPEC does moves price as we have seen on more than a few occasions lately. That includes today. Words move markets. More than supply and demand fundamentals. Maybe you think it is a coincidence that the dollar and oil move inverse one another lately and that the Fed’s words have no bearing on dollar strength nor do oil production cuts have an impact on dollar strength. To my mind you are underestimating the real forces that move these markets.
Bird; being the technician I am, a lot of what is constantly on business news along with varying analyst opinions is just noise to me. Especially the predictions of actions to be taken by the Fed, OPEC, and other groups which I feel more often immobilizes investors and hurts them then help them. All I do is look at technicals and then often fundamentals to see if they validate what I’m seeing with charts. I believe technicals are far superior to retroactive price movements and analyst opinions when it comes to predicting future price movement. I understand that what OPEC and others do will ultimately move prices but I’ve rarely have seen them impact the message and signs thrown our way by the technicals. Now, if I was a pure fundamentalist then I would be at the mercy of those who look in their magic balls to delineate the future which is more often then not based on past old data. As far as pronouncements by OPEC and other agencies, they may impact future price movement but in the short-medium term will hardly ever counteract what technicals are opining for that time frame. Take Mr. Gartman for instance. He made another reversal in a long number of reversals today about the movement of commodities. He said something about the bottom in commodities. Well, I’ll go with the technicals and say that he’ll have to make another reversal in his opinion in about 4 weeks time.
OK, now I understand what you meant a lot better. I agree with you too. Today crude was at an inflection point though where it would have moved up had OPEC come with better news. Instead the market took it sub 40 which was a disappointment for me. But yes, in general I ignore virtually all news and most fundamental analysis because technicals are superior for the most part. It is primarily policy level stuff I pay attention too.
By the way, Bird; it’s great to have you back and involved in the threads. I always value your outlook on the markets since you often give cogent reasons behind your views. There are others as well that are really good thinkers on this site that challenge me to re-look at the technicals that I follow to make sure I’m not missing something.
Trying to be on my best behavior Doc. Maybe I will last a few weeks this time around!
Hello there. Thanks for the interview. Sorry for posting the same thing several times but I would like to have the answere.
There is a thing that I don’t understand. I would be thankfull if someone would explain it to me. In the US and/ or Canada do You have to cover Your short positions after some time? Is it not possible to just ride it out for years?
Here in Germany I just buy open end short options. I can also buy them for some American stocks. I try to pick the tops and that is it. Right now there are a lot of stocks hugging their long term moving averages and are topping out right there. Well, at least here in Europe.
On a side note: The options have a 2 multiple lever, sometimes 3 times leverage. I use 2 or 3 times leverage because with those girations in the markets they would just eat Your capital fast…if You choose a higher multiple and the market turns against You. For example I bought an option just for some hundred $ on NETFLIX 0,5 $ within the alltime high. There is a good chance this will work out. NETFLIX is almost up to its high today again for all those who haven’t gotten in. Just don’t risk too much money. I also picked the recent top in Bank of America and TESLA. Just with small money.
Do You think it is a bad idea?
Thanks for the advice.
Keep it up!!!
Nic’
You can keep it on your sheets forever (a short) and if it goes out of business, it gets marked to 0. The only thing you have to worry about with a short is the borrow – if something starts moving a lot, you might get your borrow called in.
That is strange. I just buy such an option and basically don’t care much about it.
As I wrote, here the options I buy are open ended.
Thanks chartman!!!
Wasn’t it just yesterday that Doc said not to look for a year end rally in the metals or the markets? That is some quick revision.
Well, Greg; would you please re-listen to my personal interview on gold yesterday—you’ll hear that I said that you should expect a “pop” in the gold market in the very near future. Then if you would kindly listen to the market wrap you’ll hear that I said you could probably expect a move back up in the markets today but that you shouldn’t expect a significant “santa claus” rally this year. The path of least resistance at the close yesterday was down unless technicals changed. After the vix move down today it appears we’ll continue to move sideways with the possibility of a small move either way but currently we’re in a trading range. We may move up toward the end of the year but it won’t be a significant move. As said ad infinitum, January will be the month to tell you what will happen to the general markets next year.
Oh, I might add there was no “some quick revision” in my gold outlook—-in fact I would say today qualifies for a “near term pop” in gold and it falls into my move within the next 1 and 1/2 week.The vix move for the conventional markets was if the vix took out the BB on the upside which it didn’t do today. If fell back which is positive for the rest of the month for the conventional markets in that we’ll in all likelihood not see a significant downturn the rest of this month.
Weekly Wrap with Craig Hemke of TF Metals Report and Eric Sprott.
Listen to Eric Sprott share his views on Friday’s U.S. unemployment report, the upcoming FOMC meeting and the Bullion Bank maneuvering on the Comex.
Thanks for posting the link Markedtofuture.
No problem…here is a podcast he made public today.
TFMR Podcast – Thursday, December 3
Wow! An absolutely historic day in the bond and currency markets leads to an equity selloff. However, the precious metals and miners were actually UP a little. Is this a good sign before another BLSBS Friday?
Just for fun and to celebrate today’s price surge, this podcast is now public for all to listen.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/7311/tfmr-podcast-thursday-december-3
great post
Sprott and Turd….make a great combo…..Turd is spot on…….jmho
when is eric sprott accurate
hi doc,
Always good nice to see you sharing your thoughts and posting on the daily. Have not been here for awile but are you of the same views that a true and real bottom in gold is yet to happen? I believe as before that gold has a date with a lower price that is sub 1000. I’m not convinced that a true bottom in the miners has happened but then again I have been off at times. Within the miners I follow, some have not retraced to the technical bottoms or levels I would have liked. I’m seeing weekly gaps in some miners and that never sits well with me although some might argue that we can have a sustained run for quite some time before filling them in. Have you seen any interesting action with insider buying at all with the miners? I’m getting ready to get back in to the groove of things but don’t feel the need to rush. More like warming up as I can see gold/miners putting a final low later in 2016.
Companies I continue to like are iamgold and Primero mining but I believe the latter still needs to come down as does Teck resources and many others. I believe you are along some of the same thoughts. I guess time will tell.
All the best
Hi Glenfidish….. what are you into these days ya scallywag 🙂
Hope all is well.
P.S. – This is Shad.
Glenfidish is back. Cool. Good to hear from you, man.
Glen; good to hear from you. I believe your thoughts are right on. I’ve been waiting for some of these miners to correct further—some have but some haven’t. I’ve purchased this past week for the first time in a long time—added to my long termers and picking up a couple more for probably a short term trade. The odds are that we recover a few weeks and then that we find lower lows next year. The miners have a long way to go at their bottoms but I feel yet that the PMs bottom next year along with oil and the commodities. I’ll tell you about a stock I’m getting ready to take a position in. The baltic dry index in getting absolutely crushed. I’m looking at NMM which gives out a nice dividend. It was just cut for the 3rd quarter by a little over 50% and the CEO says the current dividend should hold for the next 5 years in the current dire environment. The stock on the cut has moved from 9 down to 3. I believe it’ll bottom below 2. I’m taking a position then for a long term hold. I figure that it’ll take them longer to cut the dividend again—-it’s interesting that if bought below 2, you’re looking at a yield of over 40%—of course that may not last but if things worsen, you have plenty of time to exit the stock. By the way this isn’t investment advice. Once again, I believe we have more work yet to do in the PMs and commodities and once 2016 closes its’ books, I believe we’ll see better days ahead.
hey Doc,
What’s the full name for NMM?
cheers…
thanks for your views doc. enjoy hearing your prescient comments