Economic Data – Does the Fed or Markets Care?
After last week’s disappointing payrolls number and the constant barrage of economic data we see every week it does seem to impact the markets. Also our “data dependent” Fed seems bored with all the numbers and likes to look at the equity markets. Chris Temple and I discuss the continued weak data and ask if anyone is watching this data anymore. We also look ahead to a busy news week in terms of Comey, the ECB, and the British election.
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It’s a quandary.… for sure.
I’m betting it will break down, like Jordan R-B, although a lot of people are reading it as if we’ve already seen the last pullback and we’re heading into the $1300s within the next 14 days. Hmmm…
One more shakeout this summer I think.
Still, if it does go up my PF will too I guess. Gonna keep powder dry for July though.
Whether the miners are bottoming now, ahead of the Fed meeting next week, or later, at a much lower level, I still don’t see much reason to doubt the bullish structure of the bigger picture or my long-held view that we will see great gains this year.
Usually the positive one, Matthew; you’re good for my soul. I still think the majority are looking for another down trend and it shows in the miners. From my past experience and having been disappointed more times than satisfied, they’re likely right. However, although not totally loaded, I’m certainly betting that the majority is wrong this time.
I am extremely heavily exposed and have added quite a bit to one position today.
Matthew…care to place a friendly wager on your longer term view of great gains this year?
Making good on such a bet is not worth the hassle but you can rub it in if I’m wrong.
could use bitcoin, very easy I hear.
majority wrong? naaaa
Is that another indication people cant rule themselves too well?
Some things plain ol just refuse to change.
I only on occasion get timing right, this time I figure Jordan sounds logical.
Just about everyone agrees with Jordan right now. Along with the vast majority of his peers, he was also very bearish at the bear market lows of 18 months ago.
Matthew:
He was indeed wrong 18 months ago but I don’t think he’s wrong now. The majority would be caught off guard if gold corrected and the dollar went up. I think they will but I have been reloading my quiver lately. I just see the metals having one more decline.
Don’t worry about your feelings if Gator threatens to rub it in. He’s always wrong anyway so it’s a thin chance.
Robert, I’m sure you are right that most would be caught off-guard if gold were to correct, but, based on the big disconnect between gold and the gold miners lately, I think the miners just might catch a bid in that situation. Of course, that depends on the size of the pullback for gold.
Gold has performed well but it still seems to me that most are very fearful of the miners right now and have probably decided to “sell in may and go away.”
I am much surer about 2017 turning into a good year than I am about the short term moves right now.
GDX & GLD’s unusual divergence:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p46002850259&a=527896815
Oh, I agree with that.
It is a bullish development that GDX:GDXJ appears to have topped, or is topping, after having been very overbought…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p71243864687&a=527904195
Off topic– Bob M’s 321gold has a must-read in the top section that’s pretty disturbing; the ousters are now employing the world stage to get rid of Trump. And another article near the bottom on John Brennan’s machinations, that comment section has some interesting reading/viewing, also.
Gold isn’t showing much weakness but I still have to wonder if it will be pulling back very soon. If it doesn’t, and breaks out sooner rather than later, then the miners could move up very swiftly as they play catch-up…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=22&id=p68128860999&a=527851584