Comments on Cannabis, Oil, Natural Gas, and Gold

September 12, 2018

Sean Brodrick, Natural Resource Analysts at Weiss Group joins me today to discuss his outlook for the cannabis, oil, natural gas and gold sectors. In some (cannabis and energy) he sees opportunity but warns of some dates where he is planning on selling. In terms of metals he is still seeing some support being held.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

    Sep 12, 2018 12:18 AM

    I’ll play cannabis with big tobacco stocks like BTI and IMBBY. They are cheap with big dividends, and when cannabis becomes legal they, and MO and PM, will be very tough to beat. Much safer than pure cannabis companies.

    Sep 12, 2018 12:01 AM

    The low that gold is putting in now looks more important that its 2015 low (the same is not true of the gold miners).

      Sep 12, 2018 12:37 PM

      A single weekly close above the 600 week moving average (currently 1231) will be a very good sign.

    Sep 12, 2018 12:04 AM

    long ACBFF

    Sep 12, 2018 12:09 AM
    Sep 12, 2018 12:32 AM

    GLD gapped down today but has already filled that gap. Now it can fall again without that open-gap baggage…

      Sep 12, 2018 12:33 AM

      Correction: GLD:SLV not GLD.

    Sep 12, 2018 12:02 PM

    Thanks Matthew. Seniors are really flying today. One day doesn’t make a trend but it’s nice to see a lot of tall white candles today.

      Sep 12, 2018 12:17 PM

      Yes, it’s very early but our odds look very good when we look at the whole picture. By the time we are almost certain that the low is in place, the miners will have risen substantially.

      The last really good fall rally happened in 2011 and the sector is now perfectly setup for another one.

        Sep 12, 2018 12:15 PM

        There was a nice rally last September in 2017 as well.

        from 2001-2011 almost every August into the month of September except 2006 and 2008 were nice rallies:

          Sep 12, 2018 12:49 PM

          Ex, the 2017 rally you’re speaking of ended the first week of September. It was not “really good” and did not happen in the fall. The kind I was referring to seem to only happen during a bull market. Look at the following chart to see what I mean (my memory was off, btw; it was 2010, not 2011 that I was thinking of). Note that GDXJ rose 80% that summer/fall and the action was good through December:

            Sep 12, 2018 12:56 PM

            Yes, well that 2010 & 2011 time period was obviously the peak of the Bull market from the last cycle so it was “really good”.

            My point was that I still made “good” money in 2017 trading the seasonal trend out of the late summer by positioning in July & August and riding up select PM stocks into the bullish month of September, and it’s looking like we’ll see the same pattern play out this year, only since Gold didn’t bottom until mid-August, the rally should extend for most of September.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:10 AM

            2017’s move from $1204 to $1362 seemed “really good” to me:


            Sep 13, 2018 13:03 AM

            Ex, what does that have to do with the price of tea in China? I really don’t understand the purpose of countering my original post with facts that don’t apply to it.
            I was speaking of the miners, not gold, and specifically of a “really good fall rally.” I was precise about what I was saying for a reason. Summer rallies, seasonally strong months, and gold have nothing to do with my point or focus.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:16 AM

            I was speaking about a seasonal rally out the late summer into September in year after year. September is a transition month from Summer to Fall, and most people don’t discuss a seasonal pattern in the fall for the PMs, so I initially thought that you were referring the to rally that happens into the month of September.

            I was simply pointing out that the rally in Gold (which pricing underpins the economics of the gold miners and also drags Silver along with it on upturns) was very significant last summer and into the month of September, showing last year still had a bullish backdrop, and that a tradable rally was there.

            I never gave a crap about it really being in the fall, and wasn’t trying to counter your trend, and it being in the fall has nothing to do with my point or focus either.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:38 AM

            On September 12, 2018 at 1:15 pm,
            Excelsior says:
            There was a nice rally last September in 2017 as well.
            That looks like countering to me.
            You “never gave a crap” because you don’t get it.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:23 AM

            I replied that there was a nice rally last year from low at the end of the Summer Doldrums and into the month of September, just like most bullish cycle years of the past, because I thought you were talking about the seasonal rally.

            I now realize you are comparing the setup now to a more extended rally into the fall more similar to how 2010 was, but that isn’t a normal pattern, and is you making an analog to the set up then and the set up now.

            I do get it amigo, and hope you are correct (but that wasn’t what I was talking about, so we were on 2 different pages…. which is OK)

          Sep 12, 2018 12:57 PM

          Now take a look at the fall rallies of 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009. We’ve had nothing like them since 2010…

            Sep 12, 2018 12:30 PM

            Let’s hope for a 2010 repeat!

            Sep 12, 2018 12:53 PM

            Yes, I agree that the rally from Aug to Sept was stronger from 2001-2011 during the last bull cycle (with the exception of 2006 and 2008 during the financial crisis). September is typically one of the most bullish months for PMs, and data based on 40 years of charts bears that out.


            My post was merely pointing out that in 2017, and it is looking like 2018, we did see the typical seasonal a low at the end of summer (late July to mid-August) where Gold and the miners rallied hard into the month of September. That is a positive in that is shows a bullish market backdrop (albeit very muted).

            Sep 12, 2018 12:37 PM

            I have to disagree. The current setup is nothing like last year’s and September 7th marked the end of that move so the miners finished down over 6% (XAU) for the month.


            Sep 12, 2018 12:48 PM
            Sep 12, 2018 12:49 PM

            Oops, ignore the reposted chart above.

            Sep 12, 2018 12:56 PM

            The current setup is infinitely better looking than any fall setup of the last several years. Those who experienced the last bull market should remember how good the autumn can be.


            Sep 12, 2018 12:08 PM

            I disagree with those who think that the “epic” buying opportunity will be next year.


            Sep 13, 2018 13:54 AM

            Matthew, the point I was making was that in bullish cycles for the metals like 2001-2011 is that after the Summer Doldrums, typically in late July or sometimes in early to mid-August, that the metals rallied up into the month of September. It is a very easy trade most bullish years, and we didn’t see it in the bearish cycle of 2012-2015, or the outlier year of 2016, wich broke down most seasonal patterns by rallying past the Q1Run, through the PDAC curse, and through the Summer Doldrums, but then crapped out in August when it got over extended and fell from August for the balance of the year to work off the overbought conditions.

            Alll the other years though, if you look at the link I posted above 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007,2009, 2010, and 2011 had a rally that started at the end of summer and rallied from either July/mid-Aug into the month of September was clear as day seasonality.

            We saw the exact same thing last year in 2017 where Gold put in a bottom at $1204 in July and rallied up to $1362 in Gold. That more that qualifies as a really good rally and it doesn’t matter how the month of September closes or it finally peaked out inn the first 1/3 of September. The season trend played out regardless and that was my point. That rally is out of July is very clear on the chart from last year.


            This year, in 2018, the low came a bit later in the summer in mid-August, but it is a very reliable pattern to rally from late Summer into September.

            I never said anything about a fall rally and that was never my point. The easy seasonal trade almost bull year since 2001 (with the exception of 2006, and the outside year of 2016) has been to buy in late summer and ride it up into September.

            A fall rally is not nearly as consistent as the seasonal rally from July/Aug into Sept, and didn’t happen each year, but t in those years where it happens like 2010 it is merely an extension of that rally, so it obviously climbs even higher in a continuation of that move.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:05 AM

            Here is a more zoomed chart for Gold in on 2017 showing this same seasonal trend:


        Sep 13, 2018 13:56 AM

        Here are a few years during the last bull cycle where the #Gold #Seasonality rally from August into the month of September played out.

        2001 –

          Sep 13, 2018 13:56 AM
          Sep 13, 2018 13:57 AM
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          Sep 13, 2018 13:59 AM
          Sep 13, 2018 13:59 AM
          Sep 13, 2018 13:05 AM

          2018 – So far Gold bottomed at $1167.10, and did bounce, but the bounce has been muted after such a rough Summer Doldrums and strong dollar period the last few months. It is displaying the same kind of pattern though, and I believe there still some legs to this rally. If it goes into the Fall as well then great, as it will be a continuation. Fine by me.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:18 AM

            Of course it will be fine by you — it will be the most bullish action we’ve seen in 8 years!
            And no, neither the miners nor gold are displaying the same kind of pattern as last year.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:29 AM

            Yes that would be fine by me if we had the most bullish action seen in 8 years. Bring it.

            As for your claim that “neither the miners nor gold are displaying the same kind of pattern as last year.” I disagreed and showed how last year at the end of Summer Doldrums, Gold (and in sympathy, the miners) rallied into the month of September, like they had in most of the other bullish cycle years of 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, and 2011. It is a clear seasonal pattern when the PMs are in a bullish cycle.

            We saw it last year in 2017 when gold had a pretty good rally from $1204 to $1362:


            and we’ll see it again this year in 2018 off the low in August of $1167

            It is a very easy pattern to trade without any complex chart gymnastics required, just like buying during tax loss selling in Dec and selling in February has been the last 5 years in a row. Nothing complicated about the point or the trade.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:39 AM

            This last February Goldfinger posed the question:

            @Goldfinger – “Is it really that simple? Buy $gold miners in December and make big returns within 1-2 months?”


            (my short answer back to him was: YES)


            I see the exact same ease of the trade out of the Summer Doldrums in July to mid-Aug (depending on the year and severity of the pullback), and then ride the trade up in the metals & miners into the rally into September (at the very end of Summer or sometimes into the fall).

            That was my only point. It happens most years and it is easy to trade.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:41 AM

            Ex, what’s complicated is what you don’t get about where the sector is technically at, now versus then.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:47 AM

            It appears to be making a large double bottom “W” shaped formation from the 2015 low to present. I’m sure it will eventually rally much higher and Gold will take out the 2016 high of $1377.50 and more money will come in from institutional funds and retail money on the sidelines at that time and it will go much higher.

            If that comes this fall or stalls until next year, I’m cool with it either way.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:48 AM

            For the record: I hope you are correct and we see a monster rally that extends from this September and goes into the fall into Oct/Nov. I would be all smiles.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:05 AM

            Well get ready for disfiguring smile lines then. Like I said very recently, the current low for gold is more important than the one that happened at 1045.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:13 AM


            Hearing you this interested in the setup is encouraging Matthew.

            Ever Upward!

    Sep 12, 2018 12:18 PM

    SILJ:SLV probable double bottom:

    Sep 12, 2018 12:25 PM

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    Sep 12, 2018 12:39 PM
    Sep 12, 2018 12:18 PM

    Matthew, what’s up with USAS? It is my only mining stock that went down today, on low volume, so I bought some before the close@2.15

    Sep 12, 2018 12:03 PM

    Bonzo, I think you got a good price even if it doesn’t turn up with the purer silver plays.

      Sep 12, 2018 12:04 PM

      It will obviously help a lot if zinc starts a new trend higher.

      Sep 12, 2018 12:09 PM
        Sep 12, 2018 12:32 PM

        Great chart, Matthew! Even if ZN does not go up imagine what USAS will earn with silver at $50 or $100 and after their silver production has grown to 4 million oz/year.

          Sep 13, 2018 13:26 AM

          Right now USAS is saving the majority of their Silver stopes for higher prices, and so while they are producing a fair bit of Silver, a large piece of their revenues are coming from both Zinc and Lead production. Both Zinc/Lead have had much higher prices in 2017 through present, than they did for many years prior, so that was the right call from management to make hay while the sun was shining on the base metals, and save most of their precious metals for when the pricing makes more sense.

    Sep 12, 2018 12:12 PM

    Nice little gain for gold overnight (Aus time). Not so much for silver…mmmm!

    Sep 12, 2018 12:19 PM

    I agree Matthew. I said earlier in the week that I believe gold will retest its August lows. However the last 2 days may indicate Im wrong. If gold holds here or even gains at the close on Friday then maybe August lows are safe for the time being. Interesting to see whether silver plays catchup at all if this were to eventuate

      Sep 13, 2018 13:30 AM

      Gold typically moves first and Silver does play catch up, but then ends up overshooting Gold to the upside and outperforming. That would be par for the course if Gold holds it’s gains off the August low and then starts moving higher, for Silver to eventually get the memo and shoot higher.

        Sep 13, 2018 13:31 AM

        Most of the silver stocks moved up nicely yesterday in anticipation of a move like that even though Silver pricing was “meh”.

          Sep 13, 2018 13:51 AM

          Ticker – Silver Producers Company Name – % Chg on day (09/12/18)

          SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +11.11%
          HL Hecla Mining Company +8.89%
          EXN.TO Excellon Resources Inc. +6.80%
          AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +6.25%
          IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. +5.26%
          CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +5.01%
          FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +4.52%
          SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +3.88%
          EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +3.70%
          SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +3.45%
          TAHO Tahoe Resources Inc. +3.30%
          PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +2.70%
          GPL Great Panther Silver Limited +1.89%
          FRES.L Fresnillo PLC +0.32%

            Sep 13, 2018 13:54 AM

            Ticker – Silver Developers & Explorers Company Name % Chg on day (09/12/18)

            AUU.V Aura Silver Resources Inc. +25.00%
            CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. +22.22%
            SMI.AX Santana Minerals Limited +16.67%
            BTT.V Bitterroot Resources Ltd. +15.00%
            SNG.V Silver Range Resources Ltd. +11.54%
            SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +11.11%
            IVR.AX Investigator Resources Limited +9.09%
            VML.V Viscount Mining Corp. +8.70%
            SIL.V SilverCrest Metals Inc. +5.67%
            NUAG.V New Pacific Metals Corp. +3.85%
            MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +3.73%
            DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +1.96%
            DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +1.33%
            AUMN Golden Minerals Company +1.19%
            AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +0.70%

            Sep 13, 2018 13:52 AM

            Excelsior, it’s been a while since I visited Korelin. Do you still think there is hope for Mexus?? I hear they are at least negotiation with potential partner.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:09 AM

            Hi Ulf.

            Yes, Mexus is in negotiations with a new JV partner, as they had to divorce themselves from MarMar after they failed to keep their end of the bargain in getting the deposits into production in 2017. The good news is that the leach pads are done, and they have 2 different Merrill Crowe processing mills in place at 2 different deposits, so all the pieces are there, and they just need to find the right operators.

            Also they have been working without having official resource estimates because they tested repeatedly and new the gold/silver were there and it was economic to mine it with open pit heap leach methods. Still they are going to be doing some updated exploration work and are heading towards developing a publishable resource estimate over the next year or so.

            It is still very high risk, but also can be very high reward. I have a reasonable position in it now because I’m betting that will all the equipment in place they get 1 of the 3 deposits into production in the next 12 months, and then work on the 2nd the year after.

            It was still the largest percentage gainer that I had in 2016 (or ever)

            It’s still 857% higher than the 2016 lows which were $.0014. I started buying at $.0035, and trimmed on the way up to $.20, so I’m a fan and had a zero cost basis, but then added some more at $.014 which that part is slightly underwater at this point.

            It wouldn’t be my top pick, but is more of a speculative punt. Cheers!

    Sep 13, 2018 13:24 AM

    Hi Ex. My comments about silver were based around the observation that its recent moves have been quite muted to the upside and accelerated to the downside. Even in day to day trading it should be performing more favourably when it has a positive day I would’ve thought. Perhaps this is a sign of the beat up process the PMs have been exposed to. With silver being a smaller market than gold, I suppose its more suceptible to the claws of the bear…

      Sep 13, 2018 13:14 AM

      Hi Ozibatla. Yes, I think you summed up Silver well there at the end:

      “Perhaps this is a sign of the beat up process the PMs have been exposed to. With silver being a smaller market than gold, I suppose its more susceptible to the claws of the bear…”

      Silver usually overperforms Gold to the downside and the upside, so it is no surprise it got beat up more during the pullback / consolidation and that any rallies have been more muted. This is why I generally track Gold over Silver in consolidations and down markets, as it is far more likely that Gold will bounce first and turn upwards and drag Silver’s sorry butt along with it. However, once Silver gets going then it tends to get supercharged and shoot past Gold to the upside and move at a higher percentage basis outperforming the yellow metal during very bullish runs (like we saw in 2016 or for small periods during extended rallies the last few years).

    Sep 13, 2018 13:52 AM

    Thanks for your views, Excelsior. Always a pleasure. What a mess it has been, but you never know, the right partner could be very, very rewarding.

      Sep 13, 2018 13:00 AM

      Yes, agreed on both points – It’s been a hot mess the last year, but a new partner that get’s them into production can cause it to blast higher in a very short time-span.

      Fun times!

        Sep 13, 2018 13:56 AM

        Fun times?? I am a nervous wreck, lol. But it can’t really get any worse, so any positive development will have a big impact. Fingers crossed!

          Sep 13, 2018 13:13 AM

          Oh. Well, good luck then.

          For me I don’t have a large enough position in Mexus to be a nervous wreck, and most of my position was at a $0 cost basis except for what I added at $.014, so the current price at $.0122, seems like a great place for a rally to build from once they announce some exploration updates or find a JV partner, which would be an explosive move higher, and that seems like fun to me. 😉

            Sep 13, 2018 13:15 AM

            Here’s to fun times !!

            Sep 13, 2018 13:18 AM

            So let me clarify the fun will be if it rocket launches higher on news flow, but we are getting closer to that event, so that’s why these seem like fun times. (lol).

            I guess the pullback and waiting hasn’t been much fun though, but this too shall pass.

            Sep 13, 2018 13:18 AM

            Yes – Here’s to fun times!!