Big Picture Look At What Is Driving Gold

September 4, 2019

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to take a look at the precious metals market and assess the other markets that need to be noted. We start with the USD and the recent relationship between the two. Next is the action in silver and platinum as they are playing catch up. Finally we look at the US markets and the potential of a breakout higher or breakdown and how each of these would impact the PMs.

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    Sep 04, 2019 04:57 PM

    September is one of the two best months for gold……….One of two worst months for the Dow. Guess I’ll bet opposite to Chris. The major risk to the equities IMO is just how fast and to what levels are foreign funds headed this way.

    Sep 04, 2019 04:13 PM

    The entire system is so out of wack, anything could happen……
    Nothing is normal, maybe never was……so , expect anything……..JMO

    Sep 04, 2019 04:37 PM

    GDX is up 50% since our contrary indicator, Bill, marked the low with his timely but misguided commentary. Funny stuff…

      Sep 04, 2019 04:23 PM

      And as the sector was bottoming:
      On May 23, 2019 at 1:20 pm,
      Matthew says:
      I think my IPT indicator is working and that the low for the sector is very close.

      Sep 04, 2019 04:34 PM

      This one’s funny because small “p” paul (not to be confused with the other Pauls) took a week to counter me (and was wrong).
      On May 23, 2019 at 2:23 pm,
      Matthew says: (re: GDX)
      I bet the worst case is around $19.

      On May 30, 2019 at 6:08 pm,
      paul says:
      You are probably wrong. Would not be the first nor the last.

      On June 1, 2019 at 3:17 pm,
      Matthew says:
      Nope, I am most likely right about that. You’ll see.

      Sep 04, 2019 04:04 PM

      I’d forgotten how fun May was. Spanky thought I should dump IPT at the low and small paul came along 2 weeks later with his own valuable contribution:

      On May 22, 2019 at 12:24 pm,
      spanky says:
      IPT.V is printing a second black candle in a row today. It’s giving you every opportunity to jettison it.

      On May 22, 2019 at 12:53 pm,
      Matthew says:
      Few IPT holders would like the result if I tried to jettison my shares in one day, I can assure you of that.

      On June 4, 2019 at 5:43 pm,
      paul says:
      Yeah, sure, dumb ass.

        Sep 05, 2019 05:37 AM

        I promised I wouldnt post again, but I wanted to provide some context. I stated IPT was a super strong buy based on the massive reversal candle it printed in late 2018 and in fact took a substantial position in it on that belief. The post I made in May was made out of frustration more than anything, and I never expressly said to sell it, nor will I. that being said, you stated that IPT was ready to break out vs AXU a month or so ago, and it has done anything but. In fact, it looks like AXU:IPT.V ratio has formed a massive multiyear inverse head and shoulders. AXU has absolutely crushed IPT for 4 years now, and that trend looks set to continue in the months and years ahead (in the short term it is way overbought vs IPT).

          Sep 05, 2019 05:54 AM

          Even with today’s reaming, AXU is still up on the week 2%, while IPT.V is down 4.4%. I would expect IPT to rally vs AXU now, maybe for a few months or more, but the LT trend is pretty damning for anyone who has touted IPT vs AXU or AG.

            Sep 05, 2019 05:02 AM

            The bull market started in 2016 just as I maintained since then and you couldn’t see it — and probably still don’t.
            AXU’s large resources gave it the upper hand early on in this silver move but IPT’s turn is coming soon.

            Sep 05, 2019 05:04 AM

            It still more than doubled since you said I should dump it and now might be forming a bullish inverse H&S continuation pattern:

            Sep 05, 2019 05:12 AM

            What are you talking about? I have never stated this wasn’t a bull market, just that we could base for far longer than anyone here could dream of and that a retest of the 2016 lows was a distinct possibility. I have been saying since late 2018 that the miners have finally started a trending bull run and should make consistently higher highs and higher lows. You on the other hand were incessantly pumping the absolute crap out of miners between 2016 and 2018, which I am positive caused many here to suffer massive drawdowns and realized losses.

            Sep 05, 2019 05:17 AM

            I never said you should dump it. In May, the chart action was ugly, that’s all I was saying. I had and still have a large position in IPT, despite it massively underperforming all of my other holdings on basically every time frame.

            When I sell my miners, or even trim positions, you will clearly know the day it happens. I won’t mention it weeks or even days after a clear top.

            Sep 05, 2019 05:36 AM

            “AXU’s large resources gave it the upper hand early on in this silver move but IPT’s turn is coming soon.”

            Define “turn” and “soon”. Even I admit it is extremely oversold vs AXU and should outperform AXU, perhaps for the next few months. But look at the scoreboard since 2015. It’s dramatic.

            AXU has even outperformed AG over the last few years, which says a lot. I’ll also add that during the last silver boom in 2010, AXU handily outperformed IPT. (although AG beat AXU). If IPT ends up crushing AXU and AG over the next few years, good on you, but there is no empirical evidence that it will do so.

            Sep 05, 2019 05:37 AM

            Ok, you didn’t say I “should” sell but you did say: “It’s giving you every opportunity to jettison it.” And that was at the lows before it doubled.

            You absolutely did doubt the bull at the very least and constantly said that we wouldn’t go up for many years. You even said silver was going to $7 (which would mean NO BULL). Anyone reading your words would have concluded that you did not believe it was a new bull.

            Sep 05, 2019 05:52 AM

            Well, based on projections out of chart formations, I may have said silver “could” get to $7, but I do not recall ever saying that it would in fact get there.

            Bottom line is I have owned my mining shares since the fall of 2015 and haven’t sold a single share yet and have no intention of doing so until certain personal financial goals are met and/or the $HUI matches or makes a new all time high. Clearly, if I thought this was a bear market I wouldn’t have held on during the misery of 2016-2018. Yes I incessantly moaned and whined during that period, but it was never enough for me to lose sight of the very long term picture.

            All that being said, absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

            Sep 05, 2019 05:09 AM

            Well good luck (no sarcasm).

    Sep 05, 2019 05:33 AM

    Thanks Cory for the Talk!
    Buckle up for a breakout in stocks it looks like and correction in metals!

      Sep 05, 2019 05:05 AM

      You nailed it Chris and were one of the few who were very bullish when it counted. 👍