What repo market actions mean for the dollar and further central banks actions

September 24, 2019

Chris Temple joins me for some further comments on the repo market actions from last week and how other markets could be impacted. The biggest questions revolves around the US dollar and if it might finally start rolling over. However we also heard from incoming ECB head Lagarde and outgoing ECB President Draghi about the path of that central banks monetary policy.

Click here to visit Chris’s site and keep up to date on his thoughts on the markets.

    Sep 24, 2019 24:04 AM

    As of June 30, 2019 the four largest banks on Wall Street (Incidentally which are allowed to own Federally insured commercial banks as well as stock, bond and derivative gambling casinos known as investment banks) held more than $5.45 trillion in deposits. ( JPMorgan Chase holds $1.6 trillion; Bank of America has $1.44 trillion; Wells Fargo has $1.35 trillion; and Citibank is home to just over $1 trillion.)
    $53 billion is the amount that was borrowed from the Fed during the first day of the intervention, Tuesday, September 17, from the $75 billion offered out by the Fed. Now the Fed is offering $30 billion in additional two-week loans.
    One wonders how can four banks with $5.45 trillion in deposits not be able to cough up $53 billion in overnight loans.
    Is it that trust between banks is now failing ?
    Is it that many banks are carrying huge losses not marked to market ?
    Or is it that the banks are forcing cheap money out of the Fed. i.e. us ?

      Sep 24, 2019 24:54 PM

      The Fed, of course, is paying interest on Banks excess reserves left on deposit with the Fed.
      I wonder, since the interest rate on this is not greatly dissimilar from normal repo rates how much this is causing the repo problem.

      Sep 24, 2019 24:13 PM

      Either I am not as knowledgeable as I thought, or many “News” and “expert” commentators seem to be total idiots. In listening to financial reports, many “experts” add (say) $50 billion borrowed overnight on one day, to $55 Billion borrowed overnight on the next day, to $53 Billion on the following day and claim the the banks had a shortfall of $158 Billion, when, in fact the peak shortfall was only $55 Billion and the shortfall lasted 3 days.
      It makes no sense to me to add up all the daily amounts, unless the loans were extended beyond overnight.

    Sep 24, 2019 24:09 PM

    Hallo Chris ! What’s your opinion about Sarepta Therapeutics ? Tanks !

      Sep 24, 2019 24:59 PM

      Advised selling the remainder of Sarepta back in the $150/share area, thankfully! Watching for a spot to recommend getting back in.

    Sep 24, 2019 24:42 PM

    It has to be bullish that no one here is talking about the move that’s brewing in the miners.
    You’d think the sector was still in a bear market based on the KER comment section.

    New MACD buy signal for GDM:

      Sep 24, 2019 24:04 PM

      indeedy sire!!!

    Sep 24, 2019 24:46 PM

    Silver is ready to extend its gains versus gold but today was a gap-filling day for SLV:GLD:

    Sep 24, 2019 24:48 PM

    It looks like this week is going to be a good one for gold as well:

    Sep 24, 2019 24:53 PM

    Axu down 12% today,
    Nice buying opportunity😀

      Sep 24, 2019 24:16 PM

      So apparently some of the reason was a sell from a Stansberry newsletter writer on Alexco to take profits, and they rotated from AXU over into NUAG New Pacific Minerals.

      New Pacific Minerals (NUAG) surged up over 100% earlier today from $3.09 to over $6.60 at one point. Gadzooks!!

      A poster over at named @RealityCheck put up this link earlier from Stansberry that refrences a John Doody recommendation as well.

        Sep 24, 2019 24:20 PM

        Here was another interesting post on today about the connection between the newsletter advice to subscribers to cash in on Alexco and buy New Pacific:

        @tzeb _ A NLW, “Gold Stock Analyst”, Porter Stansberry, apparently decided to swap $AXU for $NUAG. The latter has a very tight share structure so I would suggest may be a wee bit overbought at the moment. The impact seems a little over the top and probably best to let the dust settle. I love how this bozo announces when he is going to announce his pick and then has this kind of impact when he does. On top of his rather expensive subscription he gets to make a boatload from his impact as well. You have gotta admire that kind of ability to make money for yourself. All of this is of course just rumor: I am not a subscriber… ”

          Sep 24, 2019 24:23 PM

          It is interesting to note that SVM Silvercorp owns 29% of NUAG, but only responded a little bit. While I’m not sure if the close in NUAG gaining 45.6% today up to $4.50 will stick or is just irrational exhuberance, if it can hang onto some of the gains, then Silvercorp should get a boost.

            Sep 24, 2019 24:27 PM

            One more good comment on about the run-up today in NUAG shareprice from the Gold Stock Analyst pump:

            @kerfuffle – “Almost the same thing happened with the same newsletter with SBB in August. My guess is that the stock price will come back down a bit over the next few days and then level off. It is very good for long term holders but I can’t believe people are so naive that they buy illiquid junior PM stocks without limit orders. The smart(er) money is laughing all the way to the bank.”


            Sep 24, 2019 24:31 PM

            (NUAG) New Pacific Responds to Market Activity

            by @nasdaq on 24 Sep 2019

            “New Pacific Metals Corp. wishes to confirm that it is not aware of any material undisclosed information relating to the Company that would account for the trading activity occurring today in its common shares. The Company is aware of a recent publication from GSA-Silver adding New Pacific to its model portfolio. GSA-Silver is independent of the Company and its analysis reflects the author’s opinions. ”


        Sep 24, 2019 24:25 PM
      Sep 24, 2019 24:33 PM

      Blue – to your original point, yes, this may a good place to add some AXU during the newsletter bifurcation of sellers of AXU / buyers of NUAG.

      I may be on the bid in the morning. 🙂

        Sep 25, 2019 25:07 AM

        I knew it was something strange about Axu plunging. If Axu drops another couple % in the morning, Its a gift in my mind. 👌

    Sep 24, 2019 24:12 PM

    RICO………..covered again…..days later……Keiser and the Turd…….

      Sep 24, 2019 24:28 PM

      Some additional info., by Turd, ….”regulators and the revolving door”……of corruption.
      PRIOR HISTORY….(with same characters)…..CFTC…… Years before,, , head enforcement official, David Mister,….investigating manipulation…finds no cause, closed the investigation, then says not guilty .., next day Mister leaves, and becomes self employed attorney, and now is attorney for the JPM’s indicted Micheal Nohac….

    Sep 24, 2019 24:24 PM

    AM I WRONG ?
    Is not overnight lending, simply overnight lending, which is repaid the next day.

    So that if the Fed creates $75 Billion for overnight lending one day and the overnight lending the next day is $75 Billion.

      Sep 24, 2019 24:34 PM

      Repo…….has some collateral attached from the borrower bank to the lender bank…
      problem comes with the attached or pledged collateral……
      According to a cartoon I saw two days ago……..

        Sep 24, 2019 24:41 PM
          Sep 24, 2019 24:10 PM

          A little bit out of date, but almost correct.
          (Collateral values drop as interest rates rise, which is not true at this time.)

            Sep 24, 2019 24:24 PM

            Of course it is out of date………who ever thought we were going to zero……

            Sep 24, 2019 24:26 PM

            Problem…….is no one wants to get caught SHORT in the deal……every banks knows there is a problem…with all the collateral…..
            Coming to the END GAME…..and every player knows it……..

            Sep 24, 2019 24:29 PM

            Do not worry………..The Fed has their backs…….(maybe … 🙂

        Sep 24, 2019 24:58 PM

        Sure. In order to borrow money,banks have to put up collateral as a guarantee they will pay the loan back the next day. This is usually bonds out of their investment portfolio or mortgage-backed securities.
        They hand back the loan + interest and get back the collateral.
        (Often the collateral is not actually marked to market exactly.)

    Sep 24, 2019 24:29 PM

    i.e. a 10% rate is actually 0.02739726 % overnight interest rate.

    Sep 24, 2019 24:33 PM

    Rick Ackerman’s current reading of the gold sector is spot on in my book:

    Sep 25, 2019 25:31 AM

    (EXN) Excellon Options Silver City Project From (GMX) Globex

    by @newswire on 24 Sep 2019

    Sep 25, 2019 25:34 AM

    Kootenay Drills Multiple High-Grade Silver Intercepts
    Highlights Include 699 gpt Silver over 2.1 Meters and 755 gpt Silver over 1.75 Meters