A trading strategy for when fear and panic hits the metals stocks

March 6, 2020

Dave Erfle kicks off today by sharing his recent trading strategy for gold and silver stocks when we saw that rush to cash at the end of last week. With the gold price significantly higher but stocks still lagging there are a couple fundamentals that Dave thinks you should be paying attention to.

Click here to visit Dave’s site and learn more about his newsletter.

    Mar 06, 2020 06:03 AM

    You boys are up awfully early…

      Mar 06, 2020 06:52 AM

      You Snooze You Looze. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz! DT

        Mar 06, 2020 06:15 AM

        Hey, I’m an insomniac…so I never snooze or looze….

          Mar 06, 2020 06:00 AM

          EBO…………did you see this
          JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recovering after emergency heart surgery

          Mar 06, 2020 06:00 AM

          EBO…………did you see this
          JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recovering after emergency heart surgery
          NEW YORK (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon is recovering from emergency heart surgery done on Thursday morning, with two deputies taking over as he recuperates, the largest U.S. bank said.

            Mar 06, 2020 06:03 AM

            Silver hoard to much for a weak heart…………… 🙂
            THE Pressure is on………………

            Mar 06, 2020 06:05 AM

            He also battled throat cancer after a diagnosis in 2014 that sidelined him for several months………….
            HE is not going to be able to tell where the hoard is hidden…..

            Mar 06, 2020 06:27 AM

            I posted on it yesterday. Said I you can be guaranteed he will get the best treatment money can buy…just like Lord Blanfeind and his cancer…these guys will live forever…banksters never die…they don’t even fade away…they just suck your blood until you die.

            Mar 06, 2020 06:27 AM

            Did not know about the throat cancer, though.

            Mar 06, 2020 06:28 AM

            Did not know about the throat cancer, though.

            Mar 06, 2020 06:29 AM

            Dang…energy getting annihilated…low energy day…and I already thought there were too many low energy days…

            Mar 06, 2020 06:36 AM

            I question the heart part.

            Mar 06, 2020 06:41 AM

            Arab Oil……getting sheikhed…………..

    Mar 06, 2020 06:02 AM
    Gregg Mannorino

      Mar 06, 2020 06:03 AM

      Margin call…….check for a good buy on silver…… 🙂

        Mar 06, 2020 06:05 AM

        Phyz gold………going up…….said that last week………
        Silver is still controlled……by JPM.

          Mar 06, 2020 06:26 AM

          Jerry, the western governments are starting to realize that some sort of gold standard will return. I think they are increasing their purchases of gold bullion in anticipation of this and are accumulating quietly. DT

            Mar 06, 2020 06:57 AM

            DT…….I think you are spot on………..

        Mar 06, 2020 06:17 AM

        Chen Lin said that a big hedge fund is going under and we would find out next week. He was looking at trader’s charts and the surge in Palladium last week he believes was caused by short covering of palladium. Hedge Funds are honeycombed with each other, Hedge Fund “A” owns part of Hedge Fund “B” and Hedge Fund “D” owns “C” and “A”. They are so intertwined that each one is dependent on the other and their holdings are so vast that they don’t know what they have. When one falls many others start to break apart, and so goes the waterfall. DT

        Mar 06, 2020 06:53 AM

        The silver to gold ratio is 97 to 1, the highest it has ever been.

      Mar 06, 2020 06:13 AM

      Gregg has been spot on concerning bond yields……..for over a year……

        Mar 06, 2020 06:41 AM

        David inflation is what will be the ultimate driver for gold miners next bull mkt breakout.
        With all the lowering of rates, QE type infusion, looking out in future we’re will we start to see inflation start to show itself. 2 years???

          Mar 06, 2020 06:48 AM

          David????????me not him………lol

      Mar 06, 2020 06:51 AM

      Was not the Great Crash of 1929 blamed on lack of money injected into the system?

      The stock market is too high by historic measurs and, if enough people panic, will go below what it is actually worth.

      Such is life. But as oil goes down a lot, mining becomes more profitable.

      Anyone know of PDAC podcasts?

    Mar 06, 2020 06:09 AM
      Mar 06, 2020 06:03 PM

      Low energy day. 🙂 But wait until all those shale plays go bust.

      Mar 06, 2020 06:04 AM

      That would be one of those fuzzy math questions…….for the dead heads at msn…like really dumb….

        Mar 06, 2020 06:05 AM

        Funny , that most of the sheeple can not do simple math……..

    Mar 06, 2020 06:40 AM

    This pullback is not surprising or bearish. Last night I said: I’d guess that today’s lack of leverage has to do with anticipation of a pullback after moving up every day this week so far and running into resistance:

      Mar 06, 2020 06:15 AM

      Yep the pullback is not surprising… Especially when someone dumps $700 million in futures on market right before job numbers release. Insider trading???

        Mar 06, 2020 06:20 AM

        The resistance being hit on the chart above made a pullback highly likely in the miners regardless of gold futures action but the gold dump might add to the downside in the miners. If so, it’s nothing but a buying opp in my opinion.

    Mar 06, 2020 06:27 AM

    Gold is looking toppy, at least in the short term, while silver has not confirmed its moves for months now and general sentiment is very bullish with virtually everyone expecting that gold “has to” go up if coronavirus news gets worse or if stocks drop. Neither is true.
    A hair from going short here…makes sense for a good retrenchment to purge the bullishness..

      Mar 06, 2020 06:47 AM

      Bullishness was purged last week when miners got hammered and gold plunged $100. How many here were buying at the lows last Friday or any day after? Not many is my guess.

      The virus is meaningless to gold, we have the Fed gone wild because of exponential debt growth and that’s what really drives gold. This is the best setup for gold in any living person’s lifetime if not ever.
      Today, GDX vs Dow got right back to its pre-crash resistance so today’s action makes sense from that standpoint as well as the resistance I pointed out last night.

        Mar 06, 2020 06:09 AM

        Agreed Matthew, and I was definitely buying last Thursday and Friday and mentioned on here which companies I picked up, and also had a nice JNUG trade heading into this week.

        There may be more weakness for a bit longer, but buying the miners last week was good value in so many names. My only regret was not having more cash available.

          Mar 06, 2020 06:13 AM

          One of the questions Brent asks Gwen, Jay, John, and his German pal, is what companies they were buying last Friday during the sell-off.

          All of them picked up shares in what they felt were the more quality companies that had sold down.

          However I agree with your point Matthew, that most tepid and fickle resource investors were likely doing more selling last week instead of buying into the weakness.

          As you stated on here a while back, most retail investors like to “Cry Low and Buy High,” versus “Buy Low and Sell High.”

          The pros were buying though.


          Brent Cook asks “So, What’s Really Going On?” in a Panel Discussion at Metals Investor Forum

          #MIF – February 28 – March 1, 2020 in Toronto #VIDEO

            Mar 06, 2020 06:26 AM

            As I said last week and since, the buying/selling in GDX and GDXJ especially, and the companies for the most part that comprise them, had almost nothing to do with the Pied Pipers or their followers. This was all directional/”hot” money from OTHER investors and institutions that piled in…then quickly exited on margin calls and fear.

            Mar 06, 2020 06:45 AM

            Agreed Mr T. They were the momentum funds and hedgies that were in for hot money, and then back out again on the market rout last week. It created an interesting opportunity to bottom fish last Friday, just like today’s action seems to have mirrored the sell off in the miners (even though Gold is hanging up there fairly well).

            Mar 06, 2020 06:47 AM

            Ditto on the gold………EX……..

            Mar 06, 2020 06:48 AM

            It should be noted though, that the selling the end of last week and even today was definitely not limited to just the GDX or GDXJ (which are larger traders and funds), but it was across the board in almost all the Gold & Silver stocks, and with much higher volumes than normal, so it was fear and liquidation from MOST investors, not just the directional traders.

        Mar 06, 2020 06:05 AM

        I think loss off confidence in Gov and system drive gold more so.
        Seasonality is passing. Oct to now is a massive move I doubt a flash $100 will purge the bullishness enough. The next bit will confirm.

          Mar 06, 2020 06:11 AM

          Interesting that shares in HUI have same performance level / ratio to gold for going 6 years back.

          Mar 06, 2020 06:42 AM

          That loss of confidence stuff that Armstrong spews is meant to confuse. Gold very clearly reflects expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet even though it sometimes lags or even leads it. If confidence was the culprit, gold would return to the official price when things are going great but that obviously never comes close to happening.
          The Fed’s debasing of the currency does cause some to lose confidence but gold still reflects the amount of debasement rather than some random amount of lost confidence. If confidence were truly lost, it would be due to Fed printing and gold would not have a dollar price because the dollar would be worth zero.

        Mar 06, 2020 06:17 AM

        Ditto Matthew………onThe virus is meaningless to gold,

          Mar 06, 2020 06:36 AM

          Weekly gold looks good to me……….

          Mar 06, 2020 06:44 AM

          That’s what I said ” that gold “has to” go up if coronavirus news gets worse or if stocks drop. Neither is true” The week before we shorted the mini meltdown. The media thinks the virus caused it…thats dead wrong. The DOW was off the charts over priced.

            Mar 06, 2020 06:50 AM

            Interesting enough 4300 trade days my REIT has blow Gold away while throwing off a 5+% DIV

            Mar 06, 2020 06:51 AM

            Bill, who are you talking to……….?

          Mar 06, 2020 06:45 AM

          Speaking of the virus being meaningless to gold…so are fundamentals!

            Mar 06, 2020 06:08 PM

            Only in the short term, David.

        Mar 06, 2020 06:07 PM

        Last week was a good opportunity, but so is today.

        There are still shares selling for well under a dollar whose highs last spike($1800) were $10 or more.
        ith for example hit $15 and sells now for 60 cents?

        I have no idea of course, but the doldrums this year could still be the best buying opportunity of the year.

          Mar 06, 2020 06:37 PM

          This is not going to be normal……..that went out the window………
          Gann Report was very revealing ………..

    Mar 06, 2020 06:28 AM

    MUST WATCH YouTube Bix Weir – Clif High 3/04/20 on COVID 19

    Mar 06, 2020 06:45 AM

    Gold going for a higher high………to end the week……

    Mar 06, 2020 06:47 AM

    Partially on balance sheet…i think multi factor on gold price.
    CAD price is flying compaired to USA gold….inflation is why…we have compleye insane idiots running Canada.

    Mar 06, 2020 06:27 PM

    Just remember, most of those so-called expert were in grade school during our last market down turn.

      Mar 06, 2020 06:28 PM

      Most will not survive…….if , rates for housing go back to normal… 5-7%

        Mar 06, 2020 06:07 PM

        Couldnt the mortgage be extended a few years?

          Mar 06, 2020 06:11 PM

          Anything is possible …………real estate is going to be tricky going forward……
          I guess that is why Sam Zell said he is moving to gold………that was a few years ago.
          Nothing is real in the real estate market………flipper, go flipped…..price are not looking good in higher end………and anything cheap is selling…….Median price is $345,000, which most people young, can not afford…..

            Mar 06, 2020 06:16 PM

            go to got………price to prices…….my fingers are slower than my mind…….lol

            Mar 06, 2020 06:31 PM

            If, people are required to work from home….because of the virus…..a new tax deduction is now available and possible for all employees.. that work from home and are required to have an office……this will create a problem for the tax collector….less revenue for the IRS……

            Mar 06, 2020 06:35 PM

            The IRS…… less likely now,because of the VIRUS,….to go door to door to quiz people on their late or miss figured taxes…….everything snow balls……in this messy Virus

    Mar 06, 2020 06:48 PM

    At this rate, oil stocks are going to ZERO. Total insanity! I would even say, compared to gold miners, these stocks are looking better in terms of speculative play. I just don’t know what will take to turn this sector though.

      Mar 06, 2020 06:05 PM

      That’s an understatement…some very good companies down another 10 -15% today. Insane. A lot of money will be made on the bounce at some point.

    Mar 06, 2020 06:00 PM

    Gold going up at close. I still have 5 figure losses in miners. Thanks algos.

    Mar 06, 2020 06:07 PM

    Looks like a great close for gold…….Monday should be interesting……

    Mar 06, 2020 06:15 PM

    Cory, what are your thoughts on the acquisition of Balmoral by Wallbridge, they say it is about expanding the land package but they acquired it all at a price way above market, with the consent of eric Sprott…….should we smell a fish here you think ?

    Mar 06, 2020 06:17 PM

    COPY CAT…………….he must be watching us here
    WOW! The “Bond King” Jeff Gundlach says gold is going a lot higher, doesn’t that mean bonds…and ALL other paper is going “a lot” lower? Do you understand? We assure you, if there is a “seizure” anywhere in credit, there will be a seizure everywhere. Please remember these words!

    “Gold Is Going A Lot Higher” – DoubleLine’s Gundlach Warns Of “Seizure In The Corporate Bond Market”

      Mar 06, 2020 06:18 PM

      Like Duh…………

    Mar 06, 2020 06:06 PM

    (TMR) TMAC Resources down 43.3% on this news today.

    Looking fugly, but I wonder if their share prices giving up almost half it’s value in just 1 day, after already plunging lower for the last year is really warranted?

    Some feel TMAC will get scooped up by a larger company, and some think it will go into credit protection, but they do have a nice asset and resources, and got the mine into production, so somebody with a clue will eventually pick this up for a song and dance and get things back on track.

    Like so many new producers they just didn’t get things running smoothly, but if they can’t do well with Gold in the $1500’s and $1600’s then they need a new operations team to run their mine and mill. Sprott coming in to give them a lifeline financing is quite reminiscent of what they did for Primero when it was a distressed producer.


    TMAC Announces Credit Agreement Amendment and Provides Update on Operations

    by @businesswire on 6 Mar 2020

      Mar 06, 2020 06:10 PM

      “The strategic process was initiated to explore, review and evaluate a broad range of potential alternatives focused on maximizing shareholder value, including a potential sale or merger of the Company, joint venture of the Hope Bay mine, introduction of a new significant strategic shareholder or various long-term financing alternatives. Through the strategic process, the Company is seeking to support ongoing operational improvement, funding for near-term investment and long-term expansion at Hope Bay.”


      I’m going with another producer with a clue coming and taking this hot mess over. It could be an interested TakeOver play now that it was smashed down and is waiving the white flag…

      I may jump into this whipped dog next week once I mull things over a bit more with the idea that they are on life support and will likely get nabbed by one of the big boys.

        Mar 06, 2020 06:17 PM

        One poster over at had this to say, but I have not verified this statement:

        @BMW – “Shandong gold recently did a site visit. If you all don’t know who that is, I suggest you take a look at their story…”

        @BMW – “feel free to call IR and they will tell you the same”

          Mar 06, 2020 06:29 PM

          $TMR TMAC Resources – 5 year #Chart (not a pretty picture)

            Mar 06, 2020 06:07 PM

            Could this be a bottom-fishing opportunity as a #TakeOver play, or is it down for the count?

            Mar 06, 2020 06:54 PM

            A nice response back from @Magee over at where I posed a similar question:

            @Magee – “@Excelsior, $TMR has a producing mill, 3,588,000 P&P ounces, 4,809,000 M&I ounces, almost 8.6mm total gold ounces. Plus, their last drill results going deeper than before at their high-grade Boston mineral resource “demonstrate the potential to add significantly to the high-grade Boston Mineral Resource base at depth.” Safe jurisdiction.”

            “I just can’t believe it wouldn’t have value to a bigger producer. With $111MC surely it has to be worth more even with their current problems?”


          Mar 06, 2020 06:38 PM

          When one looks at the 5 year chart weekly chart of silver you will see two significant rallies (beginning of 2016 and middle of last year). Otherwise its alot of sideways movement. The $20-$21 range seems to be the same hard resistance that gold was experiencing around the $1360-$1380 area. It took gold 7-8 attempts to finally pierce and hold above this price range. Once this happened however, golds gains over the last 9 months have been impressive (more impressive than I anticipated). Perhaps silver needs another couple of attempts at the aforementioned price region before it gets going in earnest. Furthermore, maybe we need to accept that in retrospect whilst gold entered a fresh bull after the Dec 2015 low, silvers bear was not done yet. Hence it is behind in price development.

          Hopefully this coronavirus issue doesnt cause a long lasting issue throughout the world. If it were to begin to drift out of the spotlight in the future, people will then refocus on other issues within the global economy. This refocus will be targeted on low interest rates, increasing debt, over inflated sectors, bubble pops, slowing economic growth, etc etc. It is amongst this backdrop that I believe silver may play catchup, along with the PM miners. Fundamentally, this scenario bodes well for PMs. Perhaps better than the current fear driven sentiment that is causing margin calls, volatility, and pure safe haven investing on a short term basis.

            Mar 06, 2020 06:51 PM

            Good thoughts on the resistance levels in Silver, and how the 2016 high at $21.23 is a level, that once cleared, should ignite the Silver price higher, similar to when Gold cleared $1377.50 (it’s 2016 peak) last year and then has kept on trucking ever since then.

            I wouldn’t go as far as saying the bear market in Silver continued, as it did not make any further new lows below it’s late December 2015 Major Low at $13.62,and did take off like Gold in the first 8 months of 2016.

            However, Silver did make a large double-bottom retest of $13.86 in late 2018, so maybe this has all been a huge “W-shaped” double-bottom basing pattern, that will allow Silver to springboard higher moving forward. If so, then once Silver clears the $18.60-$18.70 resistance zone, and moves at $21.23 again, it could make it back up to the $23 area again in short order on the right side of the W.

            Here’s a 6 year Silver Chart showing all the price points of the peaks and troughs.


    Mar 06, 2020 06:09 PM

    Yes the W bottom is a good point and ties in with my observatoon of sideways movement. To suggest silver continued its bear was perhaps drawing a long bow but its muted moves throughout certainly would not leave one with confidence in labelling it a new bull either.

    If and when $21 clears, I expect $23 to be hit quickly. Its here I would anticipate some consolidation before silver makes a run at $26, which is an important number as it denotes strong support during the previous silver bull market. Here should act as some reasonable resistance. Of course, all this is just speculation. There are so many variables out there that act as a spanner in the works.

      Mar 07, 2020 07:52 AM

      Yeah, I guess a long & wide sideways consolidation channel is the best way to look at Silver the last few years. It wasn’t really a bear market, as it never dipped below the 2015 major low of $13.62, but likewise couldn’t get back above the 2016 high of $21.23. It has bounced back and forth in that range ever since in 2017, 2018, 2019, and so far in 2020. I’m liking taking a step back and seeing it all as a big W-shaped bottoming sideways base building exercise, as it would imply much higher prices in the longer term.

      The first step is for Silver to clear $18.60-$18.70 resistance, then $21.23, and then it will get up and settle in the $23’s for a bit. After that the higher $20’s and $30’s come back into focus. Cheers!

        Mar 07, 2020 07:52 AM

        Silver has yet to exceed its high of last September, and today closed at its worst level since December 23, which is a very bearish non-confirmation.

        Mar 07, 2020 07:57 AM

        I agree ………clear out $21……..and it is off to the races……..I think I mentioned this several weeks ago……In my segment boots on the ground… ” reporting at the local bullion dealer said, “his clients are wait for a pop past $21-22”
        The dealer handles a lot of high net worth clients….and been around the block a long time.
        Just info. not investment advice…… 🙂

          Mar 07, 2020 07:58 AM

          Message was for EX AND OZ……

            Mar 07, 2020 07:59 AM

            wait….to waiting…..and waiting and waiting………

            Mar 07, 2020 07:51 PM

            Cheers Jerry, thats interesting.

        Mar 07, 2020 07:15 AM

        Nobody give a sh3t what I think but waaaay to dangerous of a market for dicking around…lots of cash I think….

    Mar 07, 2020 07:29 AM

    Thanks OOTB
    We are short junior mining stocks as a group.
    Gold is still looking toppy in the short term, lately trading mostly sideways if stocks dropped but falling fast when equities rallied, and that’s despite the surprise rate cuts earlier in the week with more major cuts expected. That’s also despite virtually everyone piling into gold and the U.S. dollar cascading.
    I think there will be a time when we’ll make astronomical profits on gold, silver, and related stocks.. It may not be soon however, and as history’s shown us when the world is ultra-bullish we’re usually best off on the short side. This may also be one of those times.
    Meanwhile, DGP posted its highest weekly close in almost 7 years.

      Mar 07, 2020 07:48 AM

      Bill……..just remember , we are all trying to make money,.I THINK…..and hopefully, give out some sound , thought out comments and advice……and for sure, we do not all agree on all the investment types…..JMO…….thanks for participating…….