Minimize

Welcome!

Jordan Roy-Byrne – Despite This Precious Metals Pullback The Medium-Term Setup Is Still Quite Bullish

Shad Marquitz
November 24, 2021

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to share his technical outlook on gold and the gold miners, and despite the recent pullback in precious metals,  and risk of more short-term weakness, he views the medium-term setup as still quite bullish.  We start with discussing the recent failed breakout in Gold last week into the strong corrective move down this week. Jordan was disappointed not to see the $1900 reached, and for the move to have retraced back down to the $1780s, but sees $1750 as strong weekly support, and $1700 as strong monthly support.

 

We then pivoted over to how Fed hiking cycles often can be headwinds to the general stock indexes, but are generally tailwinds and quite bullish for gold and the gold mining stocks.   With the projected plan for the Fed to start hiking in the middle of next year, then this has Jordan bullish for the PM sector once that starts in 2022. 

 

Lastly Jordan  outlined that the cup and handle chart pattern, that has been filling out over the last decade, is now 17 months into the downward pullback that creates the handle, and that after a few more months of completion, it could be a very big impetus to send Gold and the gold miners much higher for several years.  He reiterated that this is why he feels that the real bull market in precious metals hasn’t even really started yet. 

.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site and keep up to date on his technical analysis on the metals.

Discussion
26 Comments
    Nov 24, 2021 24:58 PM

    Gold Drops $100 And Russia Prepares To Invade Ukraine
    .
    CeoTechnician (aka Goldfinger) – 11/23/2021
    .
    https://youtu.be/1feE21JO0wA

    Reply
      Nov 24, 2021 24:18 PM

      Russia isn’t going to invade Ukraine unless provoked by the west.

      Reply
        Nov 25, 2021 25:51 AM

        Yeah, that bit of Goldfinger’s video was speculation based on recent news regarding Russian and Ukraine tensions heating up, as was the postulation that the reason behind Gold moving higher by $150 (before correcting by $100 this week), was all about the Fed and the potential of Brainard being installed as the new Fed chair. He wasn’t alone in attributing that sell off to the Fed news, but very few felt Gold was moving up in November because of Brainard – it was all about the tapering decision and higher inflation.
        .
        Clearly Gold was already in an upwards move in October (when it bottomed at $1721) before it even got to November… and then in early November the Fed announced that tapering had begun (which was key news and actually did matter to the markets), and then what turbo-charged things was that really hot CPI inflation reading of 6.2% that hit the wires a few days later surprising the markets to the upside. After that the market went into a frenzy about inflation for 2 weeks straight. THAT is why Gold went up $150, and Brainard was simply a side narrative.
        .
        Also it is unlikely that Jerome Powell keeping his job (when the betting pools had him at 65% to 70% odds of staying in anyway) was the only reason for the drop by $100. This is the exact same Pumpin’ Powell we’ve had the last 3 1/2 years, where gold was able to make a 50 year all time high in 2020, so there was no change of the guard there, and it was a bit of a nothing burger.
        .
        Like Dave Erfle mentioned yesterday, it had much more to do with options expiration being this week, and getting those $1800 options to expire worthless, and the triggering of sell stops under the recent support levels. The Fed story was just a convenient cover story that coincided with larger financial traders pushing the pricing down in the early morning at inopportune times to be unloading it, and that is why the metal fell over $30 in 2 minutes to open up this week… that was hardly due to Powell keeping his job.
        .
        However, I posted the video to share an update on Goldfinger’s technical outlook, because he is a sharp guy and I appreciate getting his thoughts on the charts, and his thoughts in general. I thought the section of the video covering the chart of gold priced in the Euro was particularly interesting.

        Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:00 PM

    Dan Oliver – $10k Gold, Credit Bubble Pops, Dollar Decline, Empires Fall
    .
    Wall Street Silver – November 22, 2021
    .
    “Dan Oliver joins us to explain economic history. This is not a new scenario. Many societies have been down this path before. Looking at the examples of history will help you understand the coming events.”
    .
    https://youtu.be/XyLNZipttEk

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:03 PM

    U.S. Economy Headed for Disaster with More Powell, Warns Bubba Horwitz

    Stansberry Research – Nov 24, 2021
    .
    “Energy is up 100% at the pump, that I can tell you for a fact,” says market expert Todd “Bubba” Horwitz, the founder of Bubba Trading. The rising concerns of inflation, Horwitz tells our Daniela Cambone, are not eased by the reappointment of Chairmen Powell because he will be, “forced to hike rates.”

    On the global scale, he argues that, “China and India are not going to stop burning coal,” until they find a cheaper energy source. The U.S. remains under pressure because of tragic political errors made, giving total control to OPEC, Horwitz argues. “The economy is in trouble, the country [U.S.] is in trouble, and that’s where we stand as it sits today,” he concludes.
    .
    https://youtu.be/iD7I9symGJs

    Reply
      Nov 25, 2021 25:37 AM

      Danielle DiMartino Booth – Powell’s renomination is ‘historic’, stars aligned for market disruption
      .
      Kitco News – Nov 22, 2021
      .
      “Biden’s reappointment of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair signals a transition away from more “radical” monetary movements, said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence.”
      .
      https://youtu.be/BEuSRbAtm1Y

      Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:05 PM

    Ted Oakley – 50% stock market crash ‘wouldn’t surprise me’; This is the biggest risk today
    .
    Kitco News – Nov 22, 2021
    .
    “The biggest risk facing investors right now is the unsustainable stock market valuations that will eventually mean revert, said Ted Oakley, founder and partner of Oxbow Advisors. ”
    .

    0:00 – Market risk
    9:25 – Monetary policy
    10:36 – Credit risk
    11:36 – Inflation risk
    14:30 – Investment implications
    15:49 – Stock market correction
    17:04 – Bear market preparation
    24:00 – Rich Kids, Broke Kids
    27:00 – Inheritance planning
    .
    https://youtu.be/ksemuSInLnM

    Reply
      Nov 24, 2021 24:14 PM

      Peter Schiff’s Game Plan for Investing During Inflation – Part 2
      .

      The Jay Martin Show – Nov 20, 2021
      .
      “In Part 2 of this interview with Peter Schiff, Jay gets Peter’s game-plan for building wealth during an inflationary period (beyond just gold), his thoughts on real estate markets, why the economy has not crashed, and how crypto millionaires have taken over Peter’s neighborhood.”
      .
      https://youtu.be/tYCu6XGJiMs

      Reply
        Nov 24, 2021 24:18 PM

        Mary Anne & Pamela Aden (The Aden Sisters) Stagflation Is Here: Silver and Gold Are Ready To Run
        .
        The Jay Martin Show – Nov 21, 2021
        .
        “Jay is joined by Pamela and Mary Anne Aden; industry legends and authors of the Aden Forecast. The Aden sisters are expecting slowing growth and continued inflation in 2022: the perfect setup for silver, gold, and mining stocks. The conversation touches on stagflation, stock picking, real estate, and the ideal portfolio breakdown.”
        .
        https://youtu.be/7CwhRFGBpcM

        Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:08 PM

    Lyn Alden – The Unwinding of the Long Term Debt Cycle
    .
    Blockworks
    .
    “Today’s show is with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Lyn will be sharing why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker U.S. Dollar. Alden also shares her views on surging energy costs, China’s stock market woes, and the flurry of new Bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently. ”
    .
    Timestamps:

    00:00・Introduction
    00:49・Lyn’s macro outlook
    04:00・Lyn’s outlook on Bitcoin
    05:24・Lyn’s outlook on gold
    07:20・The first U.S Bitcoin ETF
    09:35・Lyn’s thoughts on the energy crisis
    15:15・Lyn’s commodity outlook
    18:35・The end game for the U.S Dollar
    27:50・Net international investment position of the U.S
    31:39・Dollar denominated debt vs foreign exchange reserves
    35:15・China’s dollar denominated debt
    36:30・Lyn’s outlook for the Chinese stock market
    39:24・Lyn’s outlook for emerging market’s
    42:47・The Long Term Debt Cycle
    50:27・What is the end game?
    .
    https://youtu.be/Jx5ZJc1R95g

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:11 PM

    Rick Rule says he’s buying Gold and Silver Mining Stocks
    .
    I Love Prosperity w/ Jake Ducey – Nov 20, 2021
    .
    https://youtu.be/xV1ANHZwbZg

    Reply
    Nov 24, 2021 24:34 PM

    I think Jordan is right on with his bullish medium term outlook and I also agree that the bull market hasn’t really even started yet despite gold bottoming 6 years ago.
    I like that first gold chart of his as it “raises the bar” on us bulls and lends further explanation for current pullback. Here’s a version of it that includes more recent action:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42249002697&a=1069889622

    Reply
      Nov 24, 2021 24:42 PM

      The 25 and 100 MAs are often more useful than the widely followed 50 and 200 MAs and they crossed bullishly two weeks ago…
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p24784615064&a=1069889622

      Reply
        Nov 25, 2021 25:19 AM

        One takeaway in looking at that chart is the symmetry from the bullish move higher in Gold from the March double bottom to the rally up to the peak in June at $1920; and how similar that looks to the W-shaped double-bottom pattern from August to end of September (if you remove the washout wick down to $1676 that one morning in August), and how it rallied higher from October into mid November.
        .
        In both cases, there was a W-shaped double bottom, followed by a strong rally higher over a few months, then sold off very hard in just a matter of days. It also echoes the big move higher in 2020 over many months that also sold off very hard in a short amount of time.
        .
        It’s like the old adage says…. “The markets take the staircase up and the elevator down.”
        .
        In gold’s case, every time it has a nice move higher, when that elevator down starts, it is a particularly rapid descent. This is because the big selling shows up in the pre-market, at a time that is not conducive to receiving the best price for liquidating a position, and this drives the market down through technical sell-stops. It does make one wonder why the big selling waits until the early thinly traded pre-market hours to sell? We see this in other markets too, but it is particularly pronounced in Gold more so than other assets, and is a bit suspect, but is what it is….

        Reply
      Nov 24, 2021 24:57 PM

      Regarding the assertion that the bull market hasn’t really started yet, there are probably many ways to illustrate that but I like the fact that this will be the first run in the miners in over 10 years in which all the long term weekly EMAs will be in bullish order. The current situation is really more like 20 years ago (but better, in my estimation).
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=6&mn=7&dy=0&id=p93450831053

      Reply
        Nov 25, 2021 25:56 AM

        Good thoughts & charts Matthew. I like the thought from Jordan and from what you just shared that “real bull market in precious metals hasn’t even started yet.”
        .
        If a move from Gold where it doubled from $1045 to and all time high of $2089 and in silver from $12 to $30 was all just the appetizer, then the main course should be delicious. Also, if many mining stocks having runs from the 2016 lows to the 2020 highs of 3x – 10x, was just the precursor, then the real bull market should be stunning over the next couple years.

        Reply
    Nov 25, 2021 25:09 AM

    Near term bullish=what? It would be nice if Jordan expressed himself a bit more in that regard. Is he saying 3-12 days? 1-2 months?

    Then he goes on to say next year the miners will really take off. He does mention we will get better prices to buy the miners. If so that would imply in my view a break of the double bottom in gold and he never once mentioned that would happen.

    Is there anyone out there that still believes gold will not break that low that Matthew said would not be broken? And Matthew have you changed your views in that regard.

    I’m my view can there be another pull down with the miners to new lows? Possibly

    Doc, gary, Jordan all seem to think that. I tend to get un easy when everyone is on the same side. I’m not sure if we break that double bottom but I tell you there is plenty of liquidity right below it and it seems the market may take us there.

    At the same time I have plenty of respect for the names above. When looking at gold itself on a monthly it seems to me that descending wedge that Matthew Illustrated on his chart as well as Jordans first chart better hold if not it’s looking more and more like that double bottom is going to be broken

    Forgive me if I sound up and down. I still stand firm we are going higher and consolidating. Call it Oscillating for that moving average in gold on the monthly to start moving up a bit

    Reply
      Nov 25, 2021 25:58 AM

      Glen, which low are you referring to that I said would not be broken?

      Reply
        Nov 25, 2021 25:23 PM

        If my memory serves me correctly I believe you may have said march 2021 bottom is the low in gold and it would hold when I kept saying it would or could break. That’s why im asking.

        It’s not negative I just want to be clear if you said that or not. Im not going to find older post It’s to draining. Im curious if you think it will break or not with a straight answer.

        Reply
          Nov 25, 2021 25:54 PM

          Your memory is accurate and I still think that low will hold. It is possible that all the new lows in the miners are predicting a new low for gold but I don’t think so. I believe gold bottomed well ahead of the rest of the sector because it is by far the lowest risk item and has different drivers. In addition, the spike low in August (5 months later) was a good retest so I consider it to be thoroughly dealt with.
          It’s worth repeating that the March low happened quite precisely at the previous (2012) all-time high yearly close. That was no accident and is significant.

          Reply
            Nov 25, 2021 25:10 PM

            Agreed Matthew. That double-bottom from March at $1673 / $1677 was the low for the year, and then that August swoon down to $1676 was a solid retest of that level for the 3rd time. It would be ideal for that level to hold and to not even get tested again.

    Nov 25, 2021 25:15 PM

    I have to say that I am not as dismissive of the recent breakout action as Jordan is. It has definitely not been just like the previous bounces.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p77417365955&a=1070247621

    Reply
      Nov 25, 2021 25:17 PM

      The GLD version of that gold chart is worth looking at since GLD keeps the same hours as the stock market…
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p75492282057&a=1070251383

      Reply
      Nov 25, 2021 25:28 PM

      Even the short term will look good if any further downside is brief and the 11/3 low holds.

      Reply
      Nov 25, 2021 25:44 PM

      Matthew

      Thanks for your post it really sums up everything. It also shows your commitment to putting yourself out there with making these calls and I have nothing but the upmost respect for them. There’s many idiots on here that like to attack and call people out yet they don’t make any calls they don’t contribute in anyway that’s positive.

      If I reached out to you it’s the same as doc are very few which I respect despite sometimes having differences. I hope that we can put to rest someday the name calling I’m far Pass that.

      Keep sticking to what you do which is great your charts and your knowledge of the overall markets it’s been many many many years and I think I speak for myself and for many others I’m glad we have a group of people in here they try to help each other on a daily basis.

      Once again thank you Matthew for clarifying your position and it makes total sense on what you said in regards to gold and it’s drivers. The frustration as you said is the miners going lower a month or two ago hopefully we can consolidate here and begin to go higher.

      Reply
    Nov 25, 2021 25:30 PM

    I am not ready to write off 2021 yet. Just because they slam a bunch of bogus paper contracts in a computer controlled market during option expiration (theft time) when POTUS says he isn’t going to change the leadership in The Fed in order to stop corruption but let it continue…
    Says nothing about the price of physical metals or the fundamentals that indicate most all fiat currencies are toast. It just means intervention will continue and real metals price determination is stalled again. It could be as early as tomorrow that the dog may wag its own tail again, but only if the Banks profit from it.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *