That’s a good point Terry. We could see the Aussies like Evolution Mining nearby, make a run at Dolly Varden as well to sew up the Red Lake area. There is also the large stake that Anglogold Ashanti has in the nearby Pure Gold mine and land position as well. However, I think the most likely candidate could be Barrick, since they just took out strategic stakes in properties on both sides of Great Bear. This may be what forced Kinross to the table now to get in front of that potential future bid from Barrick.
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Regardless of who it may be, I’d be surprised to see a crown jewel asset like Great Bear get scooped up by Kinross without another suitor. However, it Kinross picks it up then great as it is the only Major I have a position in and I’d love to see Dixie under their umbrella for the longer game.

C29.00$…$22.50 or so US. Great Bear almost $18 now and hasn’t identified a resource.

This is going to be a key takeover in the gold mining space as one of the largest gold exploration projects (in theory) that as you stated, hasn’t even released their maiden resource estimate yet or any economic studies. We haven’t seen a big takeover an explorer that was still this early stage (despite their ~500 drill holes) since Kaminak. Most of the M&A we’ve seen has been with producers or advanced developers.
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History is definitely being made here, and there will be so many times in the future that you know we are all going to here companies or newsletter writers claim that “Company XYZ is going to be the next Great Bear….”
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We’ve actually had a really nice run of mergers and acquisitions lately from the Kirkland Lake/Agnico Eagle merger, the Calibre takeover of Fiore, the Golden Star Resources takeover by Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, the Newcrest takeover of Pretium, and just two days ago the announcement that Dolly Varden was acquiring the Homestake project from Fury Gold (see the other interview just posted about that).
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Personally, I’m going to be hanging on to my Great Bear shares for longer than I would in a typical takeover deal for 2 main reasons:

1) I just recently took out a stake in Kinross, because I believe it looks really beat down technically and compared to peers and simply for the number of mines, annual production, and ounces in the ground. They took a big hit since their production came down due to the fire at their mine, and the mitigation, loss of ounces, and such, but they are now ramping back up production. So if my Great Bear shares convert over to Kinross shares, then it just fortifies that position.

2) I still get this feeling we’re going to see a counter offer for a higher valuation takeover. Maybe from Barrick, maybe Evolution (or another of the Aussie producers), maybe Anglogold Ashanti, maybe one of the larger conglomerates like Rio or BHP etc… Regardless, it will be incredibly surprising if this bid by Kinross goes unchallenged.

There are some great comments rolling in over at the GBR room over at ceo.ca. Here are just a few:
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GBR Great Bear – “I have a feeling that a lot (if not all) the posters on this board are going to have a hard time sleeping tonight. Haha.”
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@Tdot – “Don’t f’ing sell tomorrow. Bidding war to commence.”
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@WallyWall – “There is way too much cash out there for GBR to go for “just” $1.8 billion Pre MRE in my opinion. Imagine how stupid these majors are going to feel like once GBR drops it’s MRE on the market in January and they let Kinross steal it. CT is just getting the buzz started early prior to Christmas IMHO.”
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@WallyWall – “CT is smart! By accepting a cheap bid it opens this right up to a bidding war. Just like in the housing market recently you under price your house in order to attract multiple offers. A pre MRE GBR is not going to go for $1.8 billion when it is expected to have in excess of 10 million ounces – this is way too soon and Kinross is just starting the process. I am very confident on this. GBR could easily get in to the $30s tomorrow.”
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@Gfinger – “I think this scenario is a gift to Barrick and Bristow. Exactly what they wanted. A low ball offer for GBR. now he can bid 40C and be a hero. get GBR for cheap and have his shareholders on board and never paying near what CT has always said GBR is worth. I guarantee you if Bristol wants GBR he will get it at a price less than what he expected to pay.”
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@cincocinco – “I think the last chapter has not yet been written. in some way this is a giant open invitation for barrick to come in and stomp on kinross. the break up fee, while expensive, is really only $1.50 per share. i think bristow drops a big meaty F-U offer on the table that either gets accepted by the board, or kinross trys to match and cant….and they walk away with $85M for their efforts. bristow gets the prize of gbr. if Kinross does match it, we as shareholders are happy and bristow again looks like a tough guy, smart guy saying hes not going to overbid for GBR and lets Kinross win the day with a full price choke on it buyout price. Either way, GBR shareholders win. I dont think bristow is going to do nothing. i think he comes in strong pretty soon….”
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@H.I.Mcdunnough – “It’s the smart move for CT to take a good offer, if no other offers come, well you got a decent offer. That’s now the worst case outcome. By unanimously accepting it, you signal to other bidders that if they want it, they better bring out the big guns. Best case upside is still as big as it was yesterday.”
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@Smallfish – “This is the best strategy IMO, not taking such a serious bid just makes the BOD look like punters. If there are other bidders this will flush them out, no one will give a hoot about an 85 million breakup fee. Hey no one is losing money here, its just a matter of how much more we might make with another bid…time will tell. I expect at least two other bids, Dixie is just too special.”
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@HRA-Coffin – “I think Kinross will have to come up with something pretty impressive to keep a larger company from topping them on $GBR”
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@DJS – “Assuming Kinross knew that ABX and perhaps others were looking very seriously at GBR, to me they are playing the role of Teck to Diamond Fields here (I know it’s not the same, but there are analogues). ”

“No chance Kinross can outbid the big guys, so the best play for them is to gradually buy a bunch of GBR well below $20, sign the first deal with a sweet break fee, and then cash a couple of very nice cheques when one of the big boys buys it. And if for some inexplicable reason nobody else steps up, they still have an outside chance of stealing it at their first offer if enough retail decide to vote yes. Kinross cannot lose here — well played by them.”

GBR:
At this point, I am a hold and see and leaning toward KGC shares. My previous plan was to roll it into GBR Royalties, but Schwab still hasn’t got the basis right on the Spin-out shares correct and I feel this exchange is always at risk of being somehow a long term issue.
Many things can happen and Chris Taylor always said he didn’t want to sell before the resource known. The KGC offer is not that good to think it is final. But if it is, I think the share offer ends up a better tax deal and future appreciation possibility as Great Bear is recognized as one of the best in recent years to come along.

Unfortunately I personally missed out big time on great bear…never knew about it in the early days and then stubbornly never bought when I felt it got ahead of itself and then just left it on the watch list but never pulled the trigger as there was always something shinier catching my eye. Congrats to all who were wiser than I.

The obvious next question is where will Chris focus his attention too once the take out is over…..kodiak seems to be Claudia’s baby but some great bear money will find its way there….what the name of the next Chris Taylor company to advertise here on kereport is what’s really on everyone’s mind I’m sure

I would like to see the GBR price run up beyond the Kinross deal and then see what happens.

Good thoughts Lakedweller2 and agreed on watching for the counter offers to show up, but so far a wise initial strategy from Kinross, because if nothing else they’ll get the $85 million break fee, or best case scenario they get Great Bear.
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It was also a wise move from Chris Taylor and board of directors to accept it, as now the other big boys like Barrick or Evolution or Anglogold will need to pay up and this will expedite the process of flushing out any serious offers. Gotta love it.

Wolfster – Yeah, I agree that many folks, (myself included) will be curious to see what the next Chris Taylor project will be in the gold space. It will be very hard to top Great Bear though just due to the quality of the project. Assets like that are a rarity.
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Yes C.T. is still backing Klodike Copper, and I’ve had a seat at that table and may do what you mentioned and migrate a few of the funds from Great Bear over to Klodike once we get the final offer. However, after such a big win, I have a feeling Chris and his team are going to be presented with a number of opportunities in the gold space, and we’ll follow along with whatever comes next.

An additional thought , GBR up over $22 US this AM, and I have rotated all my long term profits out of GBR and bought back in over April and May of last year. So, if I took profits today my increased tax rate for short term gains, would offset about half or more of the gain. So, no matter how it goes, I should take the shares or wait for another deal as this one doesn’t do that much more than any other day in the neighborhood.

Upon further reflection this morning, I blew out my Kinross shares for a tax loss sale, as it sold off today on the news of buying Great Bear. My thoughts are it is best to whittle down the 2021 capital gains a bit more, and if the deal goes through I’ll end up with Kinross shares anyway. I rotated those funds between Coeur, Jaguar, Endeavour Silver, and put in a new starter position for Metalla Royalty (feels good to be back).