John Rubino – Interest Rates, Bonds, Inflation, and Precious Metals
John Rubino, Founder of the Dollar Collapse website, joins us to discuss the market trends for 2022 in interest rates, bonds, inflation, and precious metals. We start with a look the recent move up on long-term interest rates, and how the Fed tapering of accommodative may be affecting the bond markets. Next we get into the trends in inflation, where prices have continued rising the last few months, and at one point disinflation will set in. John feels inflation will be more persistent especially around wage inflation, and outlines how this will pressure companies and the prices that they pass on to consumers. We wrap up with macro thoughts on what may drive gold and the gold stocks higher this year, and how it may intersect with a major market crash and the Fed rate hikes.
The day of the oil based economy is over according to the basic equation: oil is now priced at $75, oil over $75 a barrel weakens economies, oil under $75 a barrel crushes oil companies. DT
I don’t know we’re to start in regards to the pessimistic point of view with gold and silver and the miners. I can’t recall another time as Bearish as this one, almost every chat forum YouTube video and pundant is so convinced that gold is going lower I mean how much more of a contrarian point of view can you have? Even in this forum Bearish is the name of the game!
So I went back to look at history and reference points and to my delight two people stood out Matthew and ex! It struck me that I had very significant points for a long-term move in the lows Matthew annex were within one month to two months of hitting those lows and they have been at the forefront including myself that we have a significant low here and now. Sometimes it’s very difficult to change your approach or to see what you have in front of you now doc cannot be discounted but there was a moment in the past that he mentioned the same and he did miss the boat are we here again? It just seems to Bearish imo.
I will leave you with this post from ex.
Excelsior
Jan 02, 2022 02:52 AM
It’s revealing that all those predictions are bearish to flat for 2022, and none of them have Gold breaking above $1900 this year, much less taking out the all time high of $2089. I believe we’ll see both those resistance levels taken out by Autumn 2022, or I wouldn’t be so heavily invested in the PM miners, but we’ll see how it goes…
I agree with you ex and agree with Matthew that this tide or wave lower has to and needs to turn because none of this makes sense!
I’m never one to hope because I do my homework and work extremely hard at it as many of you… so yes the feeling is the market and mms can cat walk this down but what is there left to squeeze? The percentages and Money calls for the upswing and I’m 100% in.
As ex said I believe 2022 will bring better prosperity for this carnage. I also believe the cycle in gold will hit its peak im 2028-2032 with ups and downs in the miners but at some point the miners will have there long awaited revenge.
I have lost money, made money, borrowed money and still I’m here standing with a portfolio I back up! Heavily invested but smarter then ever.
If 2022 brings misery then si be it k have been through it all. And if it brings riches then hard work will have paid off. I’m not going anywhere mr printer 🙂
Glen
Thanks Glen. Yes, overall, but later in Autumn (Sept/Oct) I expect we’ll see higher prices in the PM sector. For the short term, I’m invested to see a bump coming out of December tax loss selling into the #Q1Run of Jan/Feb, but this will be a place for me to lighten up on some positions. If Doc Postma & Jordan R.B. are correct, we do see a further sell-down, before the actual rate hikes begin, or linked to a broad-based pullback across all sectors, in the Spring, then that’s where my remaining dry powder will be loaded and shot. Then once the rate hiking is upon the markets (May/June and beyond) then I’d anticipate the PMs to start marching higher and by Sept/Oct to really be gathering strength.
.
It seems very reasonable that Gold could break $1900 on that Fall run, and even eclipse the all time high of $2089 by year end. Even if Gold doesn’t break on through to the other side, 2022 should still be a more constructive year than 2021 was in the gold & silver mining stocks, so looking forward to a turbulent, yet overall good year in the PMs. Cheers!
Chen Lin – 2022’s Gold Price Rally Will Mirror 2018 to 2020’s Massive Breakout
.
Kitco News – Jan 3, 2022
.
“The divergence of monetary policies between China and the U.S. has historically correlated with a bottom in the gold price, said Chen Lin, president of Lin Asset Management.”
.
https://youtu.be/OFdVicdk8Xw
Felix Zulauf’s Big Calls For 2022 And Beyond
.
Blockworks – (12/21/21)
.
On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022 breathe new life in stocks and commodities. Zulauf shares his longer-term analysis on gold and currencies, and tells Jack Farley why he thinks that bond yields are in the process of bottoming.
.
00:00 Introduction
00:28 Felix Zulauf’s Macro Outlook
07:00 Commodities
08:55 Gold & Bitcoin
15:22 China
21:51 Economic Outlook
24:26 Stock Market Outlook
32:38 End Game for Central Banks
.
https://youtu.be/Ffth8bSweIs
Very good stuff! More, dealing with economics, finance, and philosophy.
.
The Great Reset: We Are Facing A Complete Social Evolution – Felix Zulauf
.
The Jay Martin Show – Dec 26 2021
.
Legendary asset manager and billionaire Felix Zulauf, President & CEO of Zulauf Consulting, shares detailed short-term and long-term stock market predictions, and his thoughts on the loss of freedom we’re beginning to see, and the complete social evolution that will take place over the next decade.
.
0:00 Jay’s Intro
8:16 Felix’s Background
11:05 The Era of Easy Money
16:11 10 Year Correction & Loss of Freedoms
21:58 US States Autonomy & Socialist Europe
28:46 The Great Reset and the End of National Sovereignty
38:42 How to Invest for the Next 10 Years
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lnC-My0wFU
Thanks for posting that BDC. I hadn’t seen this one with Felix and Jay. Much appreciated!
Sure thing. Zulauf is kind of a perma-bear, but there is much in what he says.
Yeah, for sure, and I like getting a range of opinions both bearish and bullish from these macro guys. It was pretty revealing that he thought the big bond run was starting in the early 80s, but now believes the bond bubble has officially popped, bookended by both his books. Makes sense that bonds are going to be a dismal asset class to be in moving forward after a 4 decade bubble.
Doc is right – gold and miners aren’t going anywhere quick. 2022 will be just like 2021, there’s already new crop of meme stocks gaining traction. XBI, coal, oil, casino stocks looking good. Some biotech stocks have massive massive potential going in to 2022.
In the Chen Lin interview up above he gets into the potential in the Biotech stocks for 2022, and mentioned 2 companies he liked.
His comments on Platinum group got me thinking about PGE and that Stillwater area.
Yeah, I’m expecting PGE to have a solid year, and they are still awaiting releasing more drill results from their 2021 exploration program, and all of those are going to be then factored into the 2022 resource update.
Ex,
I would wait on TCDA to come down to $6. My other biotech name, HRTX has started moving. I’ve been accumulating position since November.
Good thoughts CaliJoe, and price target you’re watching on TCDA, and for sharing HRTX with us. I’m not very up to speed on Biotech, but intrigued by Chen’s overall point about the sector setup for 2022.
FWIW: For some reasons my Schwab account showed Copper Lake at + 19.6% and Honey Badger at + 24.2%. Theralase hit .30 cents today no matter how much MMs don’t like it and Group Ten got over .30 cents. Very strange World we live in.
Up today…stay tuned possibly
It will be interesting to see where the Canadian listed stocks open up on Tuesday since markets were closed on Monday. Most of the dual-listed gold & silver stocks with US tickers on the main exchanges were up mildly on Monday, but it would be nice to see some follow through tomorrow in concert with the rest of the Canadian listed stocks.
.
The Uranium stocks were on a tear today though, so that was pretty nice. A few nice performers in my portfolio were (UEC) Uranium Energy Corp up 13.43%, (URG) Ur-Energy up 12.29%, (UUUU) Energy Fuels up 11.27%, (NXE) NexGen Energy up 9.15%, (DNN) Denison Mines up 6.56%.
The Fed cares about the Banks. ..their owners. The corner they are in was the objective and not an error in judgement.
Consider Infrastructure as an “appropriate use” of tax payer dollars whereas long term bailout of the Banks and lack of an audit of The Fed may not be appropriate.
The dogs tail is tired of carrying the load.
“Banks” include international banks and corporations as determined in a limited audit of The Fed in the past. As long as there is no current audit, then infrastructure spending inhibits under- the-table transfer of wealth. But, that is what the public supports. You really have to question why corruption is preferred by the public.
MXSG finally had a good day. Traded 76 million shares. So, somebody believes something…..
GDXJ is at fork support; let’s see if it holds…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p78123658410&a=1081065591
Gold is sitting on a lot of moving average support between 1805 and 1797…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p40659238442
John Rubino – “We Need To Be Preparing For Something Dramatic”
.
Liberty and Finance – Jan 1st, 2022
.
“We need to be preparing for something dramatic,” says financial author John Rubino. People are losing confidence in public institutions across the board, and it is just a matter of time until they lose confidence in the currency. 2022 could be setting the stage for a Dollar collapse. “It’s been a good thing to focus on safe haven assets for a while,” he says, “but now it’s crucial.”
.
1:06 Preparedness
6:39 Year-end wrap
11:53 Fed policy
19:33 Rush out of Dollars
21:06 Loss of confidence
33:10 Censorship
39:19 Dollar collapse
.
https://youtu.be/-xmnfNfFdrU
Sold 1/2 position DOLLF @.60, 50% gain since Oct.
Good trading Marty…. I trimmed back part of my Dolly Varden recently as well, but left about 2/3 of the position in place.
Happy New Year!
Dollar Week : Range Bound
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/01/dollar-week.html