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Jordan Roy-Byrne – Thoughts On The US Dollar, Inflation, Gold, GDX, and GDXJ

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review the recent weakness in the US dollar, the bump higher in gold, the hotter inflation readings and how all of that could be short-lived heading into the next few months leading up to the Fed rate hiking cycle.

 

We start of discussing whether the US Dollar rolling over recently may be due to anticipation of the Fed tightening, or if it is more a reflection of a rebound in the Euro.  With the Consumer Price Index inflation reading coming in even higher at 7% today on Wednesday, we ask Jordan if this is behind the recent move higher in precious metals.  Jordan is less inclined to see the recent action in response to inflation since most commodities are not breaking out to new highs, but he does also outline the action he seen in gold versus foreign currencies, paired with the small pullback in general equities.

 

We wrap up discussing shorter-term support and resistance levels that Jordan is watching in gold, the GDX, and the GDXJ

Click here to visit Jordan’s site.

Discussion
37 Comments
    Jan 12, 2022 12:01 PM

    Video: Gold’s Performance During The Coming Rate Hikes
    .
    January 10, 2022 – Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA
    .
    https://thedailygold.com/video-golds-performance-during-the-coming-rate-hikes/

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:08 AM

    Here’s another big acquisition in the Silver space….
    .
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________
    .
    SSR Mining to sell Mexican project to Endeavour Silver for up to $127M
    .
    Jan. 13, 2022
    .
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3787787-ssr-mining-to-sell-mexican-project-to-endeavour-silver-for-up-to-127m

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:13 AM

    The Real Reason That ARKK Continues To Sink
    .
    Bill Gunderson – Seeking Alpha – Jan. 11, 2022
    .

    – The swift move upward in interest rates will continue to put pressure on long-duration plays in the equity and fixed-income markets.

    – Long-duration names in the ARK family of ETFs will continue to suffer in a rising rate environment.

    – The game plan for 2022 must include fairly priced companies with near-term visible earnings.
    .
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479097-the-real-reason-that-arkk-continues-to-sink

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:14 AM

    If we get a breakout upside target in the 4 hour in gold $1858-$1860

    Following 4 hour should get us to $1868-$1878

    Let’s see if we can nails this!

    Best of luck to all

    Reply
      Jan 13, 2022 13:11 AM

      Gold futures at $1814 this morning, so a nice $50 pop from here would be nice indeed.
      .
      https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold

      Jordan had mentioned the $1860 target again in the interview again as resistance on the weekly charts, but before we can start thinking about that, Gold really needs to close above that $1836 resistance first, something it has been unable to do in the late December rally or so far in January.

      For the last few months it has just been $1800 Gold ping-pong on either side of that level, just channeling sideways, so eventually something has to give in this tug-o-war between bulls and bears.

      Reply
        Jan 13, 2022 13:26 PM

        In this “tug of war” something will give. The monthly chart’s BBs are tightening and signalling that. The CPI disappointed the bulls today coming in much less then expected. The first quarter of this year should see us breaking out of this range.

        Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:17 AM

    Where Fundamentals Meet Technicals: The Dollar And Emerging Markets
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    Lyn Alden Schwartzer – Seeking Alpha – Jan. 13, 2022
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    – The dollar index just triggered a potentially bearish signal. It’s not guaranteed but it’s worth watching.

    – Emerging markets are gaining some momentum compared to the S&P 500.

    – Energy pipelines still look attractive at the current time.
    .
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479443-where-fundamentals-meet-technicals-dollar-emerging-markets

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:41 AM
    Jan 13, 2022 13:30 AM

    back in BOIL 10:29 AM..lmao

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:06 AM

    (BNCH) (BNCHF) Benchmark Drills 95.55 Metres of 3.89 g/t Gold Equivalent from Surface at the AGB Zone
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    12 Jan 2022
    .
    https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/benchmark-drills-9555-metres-of-389-gt-gold-equivalent

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:19 AM

    Inflation Vs. the World!
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    By Sean Brodrick on January 13, 2022
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    “Did that 7% Consumer Price Index (CPI) number that came out Wednesday morning shock you?”

    “You can prepare now — and maybe reap a whirlwind of gains — or you can ignore the problem and end up crying in your (expensive) beer.”

    “What about developing countries? In 2020, inflation in developing countries around the world averaged about 5.07%. Last year, it jumped to 5.53%.”

    “And since inflation in the U.S. really shifted into higher gear at the end of last year, it’s not a stretch to say the same thing is probably happening in other countries as well.”

    “Costs of processed goods for intermediate demand — which reflect prices earlier in the production pipeline — soared 26.5% year over year in November. That’s the largest increase since 1974.”

    .
    https://weissratings.com/en/wealth-wave/inflation-vs-the-world

    Reply
      Jan 13, 2022 13:33 AM

      Remember all those people that were so vocal about inflation never getting even above 2% even as recently as 1 year ago, because they’d only known low inflation for the last decade or so?

      Those near-sighted individuals had clear recency bias and seemed oblivious to the fact that all the government fiscal spending, paired with Fed printing like drunken sailors, would eventually lead to Inflation in prices once it worked it’s way through the system…. (and no… this inflation is not just due to supply chain issues as it is and has been showing up in services, rents, events, and domestic areas not part of those supply bottlenecks).

      Then remember in the summer when inflation got up in the 4-5% after we’d been hearing since March that inflation was just “transitory”? There were so many Fed apologists and lame stream financial medial bobble-heads that backed them up that things would be fine in a few months…. just a few base effects and supply chain issues… and they claimed that inflationists were over-reacting… yeah….no…. Wrongo in the Congo.

      Then remember when we got that surprise hot reading of 6.2% CPI in October, and so many marched out and said that was clearly the top and just an anomaly, and things were definitely going to start trending down? (how about no….)

      Not only was the CPI at 6.2% very high (way above the 2% many thought would never be achieved, and 3 times more than the Fed’s 2% target), but we saw it followed up by a 6.8% CPI reading in November, and now a 7% CPI reading from December. Anybody noticing a trend in all of 2021 in regards to inflation?

      So was it transitory? No, it clearly wasn’t, and anyone with a clue could see it wasn’t going to be and the Fed was just jawboning the markets into submission once again. They had good reason to try and placate the markets too, because if inflation was going to stay at 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, then why in the hell would anyone want to hold a 10 year US treasury earning someone 1.3%-1.8% yields? (here is a clue… only an idiot would make that trade, as it would be guaranteed to be eroded by inflation and thus it would be earning negative real rates).

      The Fed has wanted to stop buying so many bonds for a while (and recall that they were buying $120 Billion per month until just recently, and are still buying billions each month). They wanted an orderly exit out of bonds, because now they are finally tapering. They definitely didn’t want the rest of the bond junkies exiting before them in a panic sale due to sticky inflation concerns… so they told people to ignore the inflation and it wouldn’t stick around. Sadly, many still take these central banksters at their word, and they’ll pay the price for listening to their jawboning on where the markets were trending.

      Reply
        Jan 13, 2022 13:09 AM

        Here’s some perverse logic. It’s transitory for the rich….. their assets are growing at a faster rate than inflation…..it’s just the average Joe who’s wages aren’t keeping pace that it’s not transitory

        Reply
          Jan 13, 2022 13:32 PM

          Now if only the masses would wake up to the fact that inflation is do to central banking and government via centralized control of a fraudulent monetary system and NOT capitalism/the free market. The theft of trillions of dollars through inflation (counterfeiting) is 100% a problem of collectivism, i.e., the Left.

          Reply
            Jan 13, 2022 13:20 PM

            Nonsense as usual Mathew. Here’s where the money goes. $768 BILLION to the pentagon and more than $300 billion to our 17 national security agencies–over 70% of this years budget.

            Like percentages have been spent annually since 1945.

            Depreciating dollars destroy the life savings of working people. All brought to America courtesy of the RIGHT. There is no left in this country… only center right Democrats and right of right Republicans.

            You know this but prefer to be a sheep captive to the delusion of omnipresent commies everywhere.

            Jan 13, 2022 13:34 PM

            The nonsense is all yours. ACTIONS determine Left and Right NOT parties. I’d tell you to do your homework but we both know that it’s to late for you. Stick to your brainwashing like countless millions of others.

            Jan 13, 2022 13:49 PM

            looks like blaze has been asleep……. when the Pentagon is missing over $90 TRILLION….
            go back to Rumsfeld….. admitted at 911 , there was $2.3 Trillion missing………..

            Skidmore and Fitts covered it extensively……

            Jan 13, 2022 13:59 PM

            The Chinese government calls it shared prosperity.

            Jan 13, 2022 13:00 PM

            All collectivism, no matter its form (democracy, socialism, fascism, communism) is “left” and dominates politics around the world because of two attributes that its proponents all share: ignorance and arrogance. That’s a scary and synergistic combo.
            U.S. politics has become a sewer because of over a century of growing collectivism. It is that simple and the leftist neocons have made sure that the Republican party would not get in the way by stuffing it full of their stooges.
            All leftists are unprincipled and hold inconsistent beliefs. That confusion is probably the reason that they are the ones who cause website after website to censor or otherwise control political discussion. It happened here and I’ve seen it on sites that are accessible only with an expensive subscription. Site reforms are always due to complaining leftists though there are usually a few smarter ones who don’t need/demand such protection from reality.
            G. Edward Griffin does a good job explaining collectivism and individualism:
            https://youtu.be/xqmBesHL_Es?t=15

            To fully understand how destructive collectivism is might take a deeper look as provided by scholars like Mises, Hayek or Hoppe.

            Jan 13, 2022 13:22 PM

            Matthew,

            This is the word we live in! People are just delusional and have so much trust in government. Let’s take for example Doug Casey wth is he doing in my land of birth? He is living Jerry the best freedom at least in farmland and I know exactly we’re he is because I have over 100 acres of land fully bought.

            However I will say this my land was was bought with simple consideration that freedoms could be a choice but Uruguay has taken a strong stance against liberties and Doug may have to flee. We are dealing with governments around the world that are following western socialist society mentality. I purchased a land as an option and I’m having secondary opinions. This is why it’s good to have multiple options. We’re Doug is no one will bother him.

            In regards to blaze it’s a mentality that we are fighting right now and the supercycle which will give what time needs this moment.

            I posted earlier an optimistic view in regards to gold and projections obviously I want to be very early at times I remain the same I don’t believe we are headed lower and as you would say Matthew the wall of worry is perfectly intact.

            Jerry nice to see that you’re around and kicking my good friend!

            Glen

            Jan 13, 2022 13:54 PM

            Humanoids like blaze are impervious to inconvenient truths but it’s still worth pointing out that centralized control of money/credit/banking is prescribed by Marx himself in his communist manifesto and is precisely what “progressive” (regressive) Woodrow Wilson ushered in with the Federal Reserve Act. Absolutely nothing has been more destructive to peace, prosperity, individual freedoms AND decency than the takeover of our lives by the central bank that keeps the Left in power and IS leftist in nature.

            Jan 14, 2022 14:49 AM

            Thanks Glen…………….. the govt and the devils , one of the same, are out to screw everyone………
            the accomplishment of the fake fed only keeps the shit going, …. people are so stupid……..

    Jan 13, 2022 13:02 AM

    Whole Check Food and Amazon……… have screwed up organic food from here on out……….
    More players on coming on the block… small independents…… people concerned for their health, and
    not going to eat fake meat produced via Bezo……

    Reply
      Jan 13, 2022 13:38 AM

      A veggie garden, compost pile and couple of chickens running around the backyard would help.

      Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:34 PM

    performance of gold equities vs commodity continues abysmall in price and interest (volume).
    And with all the positive fundamentals, weak US dollar, inflation blah blah and other happy talk.
    Nice to watch the grass grow doc. There will be plenty of time, when a turn happens. Perhaps multiple terms.

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:52 PM

    In short……………….IMO…………the gold market sniffed out the present inflationary situation……….in effect front running future expectation of inflation……when the hyper-infusion of new money hit the system in spring 0f 2020 (which was technically the inflation event)……………….we are only seeing the effect of that stimulus move through the system now……………….next run in gold will be when gold sniffs out easing in the future………………………..just the reality of forward looking psychology ……….just my 2 cents for what it’s worth !

    Reply
      Jan 13, 2022 13:17 PM

      Good point LarryC…………….

      Reply
      Jan 13, 2022 13:05 PM

      Agreed LarryC about gold sniffing out the inflation early in 2020 when the money creation from nothing was occuring, and it did front-run the eventual outcome we are seeing today in the higher CPI and PPI readings.

      Reply
      Jan 13, 2022 13:11 PM

      I agree but include the caveat that the 2020 inflation is not fully reflected by the gold price and neither is the inflation that came before it. We’ve got a long way to go even if there’s nothing like the 2020 shenanigans coming anytime soon.

      Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:21 PM

    There is more at work than what meets the eye when we take a bird’s eye look…………..central banks around the world knew that they were in a jam for about 20 years, not being able to generate inflation, with the “too much debt deflationary gorilla” in charge………………A plandemic which we were warned about for years now, shows up in the nick of time, justifying a complete economic shutdown, with a nice cliche of “Build Back Better. What a perfect backdrop to justify endless emergency cash, to sustain consumption, while artificially creating shortages of good and services……………..presto a magical formula for sustained inflation of the GDP relative to the huge debt burden…………….this will take a decade or two to get the Debt to GDP ratios back to where the system can safely function………….yes, I believe we were just getting too close for the big default to occur which was the only other option………..history will be the judge of this “Economic Miracle” Fairy Tale ……………..I prefer this one as it has the friendlier potential outcome……………….just like after the WW2 …………the “economic miracle” of that time!

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:51 PM

    The handwringing over a perfectly normal down day is funny. The HUI stalled precisely at resistance but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes right through it as soon as tomorrow after dipping further in the first couple of hours.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p82908881154&a=982826709

    Btw, today’s CPI is meaningless to the bullish case for gold this year.

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:58 PM

    This is the first down day in 5 sessions for GDX, GDXJ SIL and SILJ and it was also the lowest volume day in 5 sessions.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p21893692384&a=1092627729

    Reply
    Jan 13, 2022 13:30 PM

    I echo Matthew,

    Regardless of my post earlier and optimism which is what Glenn does on live action or in real terms and puts himself out there like not too many, I remain firm at the bottom Azan and these dips should be bought. The central bank, MMS and hedge funds can try to trick everyone but it is clear to me like Matthew and Graddy have stated The quarterly is the most important chart and these nonsense day-to-day hour to hour moves mean absolutely nothing. If anything it reinforces that at some point as some moment we are going to have an explosive move upward and I don’t doubt that one’s. I did not bad dock because he’s a scholar and a senior and I respect him. He asked me to give him a price by March or April in regards to gold and quite frankly I can’t its a set Up question. What I know is we are headed higher and I’ve stated this if I’m not the first one of the first on this blog go and read that the QE and Powells verse was already priced in the price of gold. I believe we move higher into March or April with US dollar going down and when we do get the first Street hike they’ll be the correction gold will have from a higher high. Which means I remain hundred percent focussed at the miners are going to explode up at some point.

    Reply

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