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Brien Lundin – Looking Beyond The Current Ukraine War Premium In Gold To Other Macroeconomic Factors Still At Play And To The Mining Stocks

Shad Marquitz
February 17, 2022

Brien Lundin, Editor of the Gold Newsletter, joins us to share his thoughts on the recent move higher in the precious metals sector based on the war premium coming out of news from Ukraine, and the fleeting effects of geopolitical news to gold. We also balance the discussion by noting that the gold price movements are complex and also reflects all the different macroeconomic factors like the reduction of Fed tapering, upcoming rate hikes, higher inflation, and weak general equities markets.   One other observation made is that silver and the mining stocks have not really outperformed gold recently, so we review what the ideal scenario would be moving forward.

 

We then shift over to the action in the mining stocks and outline that there are some green shoots, but that many companies from producers all the way down to explorers have not participated in a substantial way yet, and it has not been a rising tide lifting all boats.  Next we get into how effects from inflation causing input costs to rise might be holding back some of the development stage projects and advanced exploration projects, as well as directly impacting the producers.   We wrap up with finding out what kinds of moves Brien is making in his portfolio, and that he sees some special situation stocks he’ll be recommending soon in The Gold Newsletter.

Click here to learn more about Brien’s Gold Newsletter.

Discussion
8 Comments
    Feb 17, 2022 17:35 PM

    We have another impulsive push coming and although Jordan and many others in here 👀are hoping the $1900 sends us down they will be proven wrong as glen has told you all $1910/$1920 and even higher comes first before possibly a retest of the breakout. We have broken out and the miners will as well..

    The more everyone is pessimistic the better they mark true bottoms.

    By the way anyone watching my biggest holding iamgold? Shites it has been outperforming practically everything out there since Terry posted the bias newsletter. Please do your own research and believe in yourself.

    Glen

      Feb 17, 2022 17:22 PM

      Glenfidish – thanks for sharing your outlook and the levels your are watching.

      Jordan’s main point with $1900 is that he’d like to see it hold on a monthly and quarterly basis to confirm a “breakout” based on his definition. His concern, voiced on yesterday’s editorial was that $1900 may reject price back down initially. We’ll know soon enough if that is the case. At least we have a fighting chance going into Friday of seeing a weekly close above $1900 and that would be a bullish development.

      >> P.S. – I agree with you that the line in the sand to watch in Gold for a sustained close above it is the $1920-$1921 level. $1920 was the peak from last year, and $1921 has a lot of technical memory at the prior all-time high from 2011, so that area of resistance once cleared will be a very bullish signal. I’ve mentioned those levels as key to clear for a while now and have just been waiting on the yellow metal to approach them again for the test of that resistance zone.

      After that the $1962-$1966 congestion zone of prior horizontal peaks and troughs is a key level of overhead resistance to signal an impulsive move higher, and then after that the all-time high from 2 years back at $2089 comes into focus as the last stop before breaking out to a new high.

        Feb 18, 2022 18:32 AM

        Sounds good Ex!

        By the way thank for the continued work behind the scenes. Wanted to ask you if you could do a podcast or show and bring whoever in and speak about rotational timing and investments. I think a day or so ago Dt, someone and else spoke about this and it has been mentioned many times by Matthew and yourself within your investments. Wolf and a few others have also talked about this. Now I will admit I’m mostly in gold and silver miners and recently last year got into copper. Some of the questions I would ask is what is a good inverse trade to when miners top that one could leverage into? Etc etc I think this would be an asset to know and have a bit more knowledge to. For example oil companies did very well since miners topped in august 2020. That would have been a great shift.

        Thanks for your take as well

        Thanks

          Feb 18, 2022 18:42 AM

          Hi Glenfidish. Good topic on the rotational trading within different sectors to capture different trends.

          Unfortunately we don’t have many guests on the show that do this within commodity sectors, as we find most of them to be the longer term “buy and hold” value investors that sit in positions for years (for better or worse). The ones in multiple commodities are really only in them for a case by case situation. The only commodities rotation trader we had regularly coming on the show was Chris Vermeulen, but unfortunately the heckling trolls here chased him off to where he doesn’t want to come back on the show due to regular insults he received. [bummer]

          We do have a few occasional guests on that rotate or rebalance within different commodity sectors in Matt Geiger and Rick Rule, and to some extent Mike Larson (who will have an interview up on Friday) and Jesse Felder (who will be on this weekend’s show).

          We do have generalist rotational and directional traders that we bring on every 2 weeks with TG Watkins and Dana Lyons (who will be on this weekend show as well), and to some degree our weekly guests Ed Moya and Joel Elconin also trade and rotate various sectors. Again, they all focus mostly on general equities like tech vs financials vs healthcare vs consumer staples vs consumer discretionary etc….. and not some much strictly within resource stocks like some of us here on the blog do.

          I’m a huge fan personally of rotational trading and really benefitted in going wide in commodities in 2020 and then trimming into strength in various sectors in 2021 in Copper, PGMs/Nickel, Lithium, Uranium, Cryptos, etc… Yes, one of the best sectors to have been in during 2021 was Oil/Nat Gas, and unfortunately I only had a few trades in NG Energy and I3 Energy, and a swing trade in the ETF XLE. Many traders really cleaned up shop in Oil and Gas, although I had a number of stocks up 300-500% in Lithium and Uranium and PGMs/Nickel, so I can’t really complain.

          At this point the Gold and Silver stocks look the most attractive to me personally, so I’ve greatly reduced my position sizing in other sectors to focus on the Precious Metals in 2022, but I did add more to my now 7 Uranium stocks and have taken that basket up to a 80% desired weighting in U-stocks for that portion of my portfolio (about 8% at present, with a target to get it up to 100% or 10% of my overall portfolio).

          Other traders on here that appear to do well with sector rotation trading are Matthew, DT, Wolfster, Lakedweller2, Thomas, Marty, Mike, and Charles just from my observation of their comments on here. Maybe they or anyone else utilizing this strategy can comment below on any other tips and tricks they use. Cheers!

            Feb 18, 2022 18:15 AM

            Ex, Trader Vic used to give great interviews about his trading. I’m talking about the 80’s and 90’s when he was a Barron’s staple.

            I bet he’d love to talk about his ‘process’ and how things have changed…or not. Interesting guy.

            Feb 18, 2022 18:18 PM

            I’ve mentioned that to Cory, and thought it was a good suggestion.

    Feb 17, 2022 17:13 PM

    (SAND)(SSL) Sandstorm Gold Sells Hod Maden Stake For $200M Project Gold Stream

    Feb. 17, 2022

    “Sandstorm Gold agrees to sell certain non-royalty and non-stream assets including its 30% stake in the Hod Maden project in Turkey to Royalty North Partners in exchange for a $200M gold stream on the project together with equity and debt consideration.”

    Sandstorm says the deal represents “the first step in repositioning itself as a pure-play precious metals streaming and royalty company, while still retaining long-term exposure to the robust economics and potential growth of Hod Maden.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3801770-sandstorm-gold-sells-hod-maden-stake-for-200m-project-gold-stream

    Feb 18, 2022 18:53 AM

    DITTO GLEN……………..
    Please do your own research and believe in yourself.