John Rubino – How Are Supply Chains Evolving And Affecting How Commodities Trade?
John Rubino, Founder and Editor of The Dollar Collapse website, joins us to discuss the recent pullback in the commodities on more market optimism on a resolution to war between Ukraine and Russia, but how the evolving supply chains may be changing longer term for raw materials, energy, and food.
We discuss how global trade for many commodities is very unsettled at present, and these conditions are likely to persist even if there is a reduction in the Ukraine situation, long after the fact, as new alliances are forges and old supply chains are disrupted. We also look at how record high inflation is unlikely to come down far enough to where the Fed’s monetary policies and rate hikes have much of an effect on normalizing interest rates and taming inflation. All of these factors may be adding up to the realization of many nations of the important role mining plays in extracting raw materials and may put the mining industry in cue for more government and individual support to establish new sources of domestic supply.
London Metal Exchange Needs to Bring In Circuit Breakers, Commodities Bourse Ex-Director Says
Xu Wei – March 10, 2022
“The London Metal Exchange should introduce a trading cap to prevent the wild swings in prices that have recently led to the commodities bourse suspending all nickel trading, the Shanghai Securities Journal reported today, citing a former director at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.”
“Unlike the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the London Metal Exchange’s trading rules are more geared towards spot trading, and there is no Limit Move, said Jim Huang, ex-director of strategic planning at the Chicago bourse.”
“The Limit Move caps the maximum daily fluctuation in a commodity futures contract and is an important risk management tool in futures and securities trading, Huang said. When there is a sudden surge or fall in prices, it slows down the impact, giving investors time to process information and implement risk control strategies.”
It is interesting that the only time there is bellyaching about putting in circuit breakers on commodities is when they surge too high to the upside for conventional futures traders and their shorts get squeezed. Sure nickel went rocketing up because a Silver producer had an extreme short-side bet, and was forced to cover by buying contracts of physical nickel to hedge those shorts, (which the exchange didn’t have for delivery).
However, today when Palladium was crashing by 13%-14% there didn’t seem to be much outrage about the dramatic moves in that commodity or in protecting investors.
(FPX) (FPOCF) FPX Nickel Announces Results of Baptiste Infill Drilling Program Supporting the PEA Resource Model
March 14, 2022
Plains drought to curb U.S. wheat harvest, adding to global supply worries
Karl Plume – Reuters – March 14, 2022
“A worsening drought in the southern U.S. Plains is threatening the region’s winter wheat crop just as the Ukraine crisis dents global supplies.”
“Some farmers in southwestern Kansas, the top U.S. wheat producing state, have not received much measurable rain or snow since October. Winter wheat is planted in autumn, lays dormant in winter and begins sending up green shoots in spring.”
India Considers Buying Discounted Russian Oil, Commodities, Officials Say
By Aftab Ahmed and Manoj Kumar – (03/14/2022)
“India is considering taking up a Russian offer to buy its crude oil and other commodities at discounted prices with payment via a rupee-rouble transaction,” two Indian officials said, amid tough Western sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
India, which imports 80% of its oil needs, usually buys about 2% to 3% of its supplies from Russia. But with oil prices up 40% so far this year, the government is looking at increasing this if it can help reduce its rising energy bill.
“Russia is offering oil and other commodities at a heavy discount. We will be happy to take that. We have some issues like tanker, insurance cover and oil blends to be resolved. Once we have that we will take the discount offer,” one of the Indian government officials said.
Wall St Week Ahead-Investors jump into commodities while keeping eye on recession risk
David Randall Reuters – March 13, 2022
“Investors are rushing to recalibrate their portfolios for a potentially extended period of elevated commodity prices, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparks eye-popping moves in raw materials that threaten to exacerbate inflation and hurt growth.”
“Wild moves have been the norm in commodities over the last few weeks, as the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia helped lift oil prices to 14-year highs and natural gas prices near records. Prices for wheat and copper stand near all-time highs, while a doubling of the price of nickel earlier this week forced the London Metals Exchange to halt trading in the metal.
With the U.S. economy already feeling the stress of a broad, post-COVID-19 boost in demand and a quick resolution to the West’s standoff with Russia in doubt, some investors are betting high commodity prices are likely to remain for the foreseeable future.”
“Investors have sent $10.5 billion into commodities-focused ETFs and mutual funds since the start of the year, including a $2.8 billion gain in the week that ended March 2 that was the largest one-week positive inflow since July 2020, according to ICI data.”
(KRR) (KRRGF) Karora Delivers Record Revenue of $264 Million and Cash Flow Provided by Operating Activities of $106 Million in 2021
14 Mar 2022
Paul Andre Huet, Chairman & CEO, commented: “During 2021 we produced a record 112,814 ounces of gold placing us in the upper end our guidance range of 105,000 -115,000 ounces. AISC1 costs for 2021 were very strong at US$1,012 per ounce sold, despite numerous headwinds, placing us at the lower end of our guidance range of US$985 -US$1,085 for 2021. The fact that we were able to achieve guidance for production and costs is an accomplishment our team is very proud of given all the uncertainties due to Covid-19 pressures that impacted labour availability and caused numerous supply chain issues that are certainly well known. Over the last two years, we have demonstrated an ability to overcome many challenges and I am confident we will continue to do so with whatever 2022 brings.”
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/karora-delivers-record-revenue-of-264-million-and?96bcebaa47e6
Gold Producer Finding Its Groove
Soar Financial – March 9, 2022
“On this episode of #SFLive, we speak with Superior Gold CEO Chris Jordaan about how the Gold Producer is Finding Its Groove.”
Gregory Mannarino: Central banks to hyperinflate the debt bubble as we enter a commodity supercycle
Small Caps – March 9, 2022
“Greg believes central banks will continue to expand the debt bubble, explains why hoarding physical assets like silver, gold and Bitcoin will protect investors, how gold and the Dow Jones will meet parity at one point, where opportunities are in the market, why physical silver is his favourite investment, that the market is headed higher but a major collapse is coming at a particular time and what the tell tale signs will be and how we are moving from one engineered crisis to the next. With the next crisis set to be an energy crisis and food shortages.”
In addition to nibbling on some silver, gold, and copper producers today into the weakness, I also added more to a handful of my uranium stocks as many were down double-digits by this afternoon.
Uranium Energy, UEC was down as much as 19% today & closed-17%…, I prob added too much. 🙂
Their earnings report tomorrow is confirmed,
“Following Earnings result, share price were UP 13 times out of last 21 Qtrs
So, Historical price reaction suggests 61% probability for share price to go UP following ER!”
https://stocksearning.com/stocks/UEC/earnings-date
Yeah Aghead, UEC was one of the uranium stocks I added to as well today, into the large selloff, but I just added another smaller tranche. If the U stocks keep selling off I’m interested to add a bit more, as I’m working on getting my overall weighting to the sector up just a bit higher. Ever upwards!
Uranium Market Minute – Episode 92: A Nice Cup of Volatili-Tea
Justin Huhn – Uranium Insider – Mar 14, 2022
Hey guess who’s back? Yes Glen the one and only 🙂
Ex thanks for your contributions but give it a pause between post so others can jive in 😬lol
Thanks for all your post by the way!
For all you who follow Glen, for many years. Many of you are on your knees hoping and praying gold collapses lol but let me tell you something, that Matt has it down pact and this Glen is sealing the deal. This is nothing more then a “ Nothing burger” as someone stated. This correction must be bought. Secondly many of you are selling these very short term corrections and if your not an expert your going to be taken to the can.
$1920 was talked about from all gurus nothing special what’s special is who knows what’s coming before the pundints! Correct? Yes because as Glen has Been on fire 🔥 with Matthew and I have been the only one to say we are going much higher to a top I to November not one person has said that thank you… no subscribers her and I know my guru Matthew sees the same..
We will have small corrections but like Matthew said don’t be Surprised if a multi month correction comes with a big top will come in November
So enjoy the ride and what you are seeing currently in the gold hourly and daily chart is nothing more than A bottoming process we are going to test the all-time highs and breakthrough it.
Glen the one who delivers real news!
Sorry wanted to add that Matthew did not say we would have a November high that was me. October/November big high. Meant to say Matthew sees further upside or he can state what he thinks.
My verse has been said long ago we are going higher feb/march/April may top possibly and forward till October November high.
Many of you fools should pay me for this info instead of insulting me.
Glen
I agree with yous but prefer the midcap FSM, especially with low cost open pit Seguela coming in 2023.
absolutely brilliant Glen, glad you provided these insights.
Thanks for sharing your outlook Glenfidish, and I thought you just posted here a few days ago talking with Doc, so it must have been a short hiatus.
BTW – I’ll post exactly what I feel like posting, and personally put up my posts around the same time of day in the spirit of sharing info and news that may help investors and reinforce some of the points discussed with John in the interview above. Anyone can post whenever they want and my contributions are not preventing anyone else from posting at that time or anytime or “jiving in ” so I don’t follow your comment there.
Regardless, glad to hear you feel this corrective move in the PMs is just going to be a nothing burger. I’m looking forward to using some of the dry powder raised over the last month to scoop up any deals we see.
I might have it wrong Ex but Glenn did have an lol at the end of that sentence about you posting so much. 🤷♂️
Wolfster he’s mentioned it several times before in the past, and is simply bringing it up yet again, because he’s stated in the past he doesn’t like to come on and see a bunch of posts from me. He also regularly likes to directly name me in his posts and then proceeds to tell me what I should do and how I should post, so the lol is of little consequence… I’ve never understood how me posting a sequence of posts is stopping anyone else from posting (because it isn’t and they could literally post at the exact same time if they desired to do so).
My posts aren’t preventing anyone else from posting, and if he doesn’t want to read them, he can scan on by them. Not everyone is here just to hear about gold prices. I take time to research and post as a means of sharing interesting ideas, news, or editorials with the community, and because I feel there is value in them. Quite often those posts do spark interesting discussions on here and off of here. There are a number of people that email me that don’t post on the blog that will often note something that was posted on the blog, so it isn’t meant to be an eyesore, but is meant to be sharing ideas. Pretty simple.
Well if it’s a trend that’s certainly different. I don’t follow close enough to know……and I have the ability to skip and scan. 😏
Glen, since Third Person Bonzo has legitimate claim to that person can i suggest you add the definite article when referring to yourself?
‘The Glen’ would nicely set off your yeoman charting commentary.
Cheers!
Copper looks like it needs a significant rest.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p83162726722&a=1125517569
COPX is a strong sell versus GDX in my opinion.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX%3AGDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p05667521120&a=1125602160
As always Matthew,appreciate the charts even if they break my heart…lol
That’s a bummer with Dr Copper, as it seemed encouraging that it made a new all-time high just over $5 only last week.
I guess many commodities did get very overbought and have been correcting since the middle of last week though, so it would make sense for it to take a bit of a rest with the rest of the sector.
And away goes my junior portfolio profits, down the drain….
Walk down in paper contracts during day with a couple of large dumps around 8:00 CST probably Commercial Shorts. Orchestrated. They seem to be saying their paper system is broken. Doesn’t mean it is over, just blatant.
Yeah I hear ya guys… today was rough and it was the biggest down day I’ve seen in my portfolio in a long time… down about 6.5%. I’ve not seen a daily move down in my portfolio that steep since the pandemic flash crash in March of 2020.
However, I did add small tranches to a number of positions today that I had trimmed at higher prices over the last month into the weakness in silver, gold, copper, and in particular uranium stocks.
We had mentioned last week that we may see a corrective move to digest and consolidate the big move higher in the metals and energy space, and here it is…
futures dump showing an interesting open for metals. As unlikely as it seems, any media mention of combat relief will see an air pocket.
Wow. I hadn’t checked the futures prices since the early afternoon.
Gold is back down to $1932, after tagging $1927 just a little while ago.
Silver is back down to $24.98
Palladium is back down to $2405
Oil is back down to $97.34
It will be interesting to see where things end up closing the month and quarter here in March.
The Schiff fork on this chart that I made in November perfectly provided the recent high for gold…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p39442879390&a=1070254262
Look out below, Hong Kong getting pounded Tuesday afternoon. For example Zijin Mining(2899:HK), CGN Mining(1164:HK) both down more than 10% so far.
Yep, it’s looking like tomorrow in the North American markets are going to be another brutal day in the resource sector. As mentioned above, today was uncharacteristically rough in my portfolio, and most of the commodities took a big hit, so not looking forward to seeing another big red today for Tuesday, but I’ve got some dry powder to use opportunistically.
Tomorrow’s likely to start out bad but the gold/silver miners could easily open at their lows for the day and climb from there.
This is part of the wild volatility that I recently said we should be ready for and I think it will swing the other way sooner than most expect (and definitely much sooner than certain bears expect) , especially our tiny caps since they have some technical catching-up to do.
The bull is simply making itself as hard as possible to ride for as many people as possible.
Gold’s high weekly close last May was 1905 so don’t be surprised if price takes a poke at it before bouncing significantly.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p05478168916&a=1059807425
Well, I’ll need to be on the hunt in the premarket and early hours then just in case the worst of the sell-off is more frontloaded to the early part of the day.
The miners did open at there lows and then headed higher. SILJ is over 6% off its low and HL is over 9% off its low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=11&id=p75665845321&a=968712905
Yeah you got that bang on Matthew and the stocks are actually mostly green on my screen that I follow so showing better strength than the actual metal prices
It’s also bullish that so few are as bullish the sector as they should be!
E.B. Tucker – Every Dollar Will Be Tracked; Why the Fed Doesn’t Want You Owning Gold
Stansberry Research – Mar 14, 2022
Right now, “a net zero carbon economy is emerging,” Tucker says to our Daniela Cambone, and the carbon credit market will exponentially take off as we near 2030. “Eventually carbon will be used as a tax on the individual,” he predicts, which will equate to paying a fee to offset your overall carbon footprint sum. “Not all carbon credits are the same,” Tucker asserts, saying blue carbon is the juicy tenderloin of the carbon market, and it’s really a unique time to focus on [this sector]. Fedcoin will be a, “closed loop blockchain that the Fed controls, and it will track and trace every dollar,” Tucker says, when differentiating cryptocurrencies as they are known today. The physical gold to back the trades in the gold futures market does not exist,” he warns, concluding that it makes absolutely no sense that the gold price is not much higher.
FOMC preview: The tightening begins this week
Brian Cheung · Yahoo Finance – Mon, March 14, 2022
“High inflation makes it a near certainty that the central bank will move to ‘tighten’ its policies of printing money, by raising the target federal funds rate (the benchmark for short-term interest rates) by 0.25%.”
“The uncertainty for Fed policy lies in how aggressive the central bank will move after the first interest rate increase. Concerns are building that the Fed may not be able to credibly bring inflation back down to its 2% level. Prices rose by 7.9% on a year-over-year basis in February, a 40-year high.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-2022-fomc-preview-federal-reserve-203526737.html
Gotta love silly headlines like this one:
Powell Admires Paul Volcker. He May Have to Act Like Him.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/14/business/economy/powell-fed-inflation-volcker.html
That’s just the sort of thing gold needs while it’s under pressure to scare even more dumb money out of long positions and/or into short ones.
Or it’s a warning to the wise. High volume Shooting Stars are usually retested,
and this may happen soon with Gold/GLD, which would fit Doc’s prognosis.
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/03/gld-gold-outlook.html
If there was any chance that it’s a warning to the wise, I wouldn’t have called it silly.
Doc shouldn’t be “practicing” technical analysis in my opinion.
Mathew, i’m sure that like myself and so many others Doc understands that yours and yours alone is the only smart money in the markets. You are so precious.
Cool. With that settled, perhaps you can now find it in you to educate yourself on more important matters. You’ve got plenty to ponder if there’s a shred of honesty behind your midwit wattage.
“It’s amazing how much panic one honest man can spread among a multitude of hypocrites.” — Thomas Sowell
Blazesb, you keep shooting yourself in the foot. You’re the Johnny Ringo in this gunfight.
Gold Has Done This Only Twice
Jordan Roy-Bryne CMT, MFT – March 14, 2022
“Gold has strong support at $1920 and $1900 and the top of the breakaway gap at $1908. A test of $1908 would mark an 8% decline from the peak.”
“I’m looking for a bullish consolidation to develop, as Gold has support at $1920 and very strong support around $1900. A triangle or a bull flag could form over the next few months.”
“Note that a bullish consolidation would set up the handle on Gold’s cup formation over the past 19 months. This smaller cup and handle formation is not confused with the larger, super bullish one, but it does project to an upside target of nearly $2500/oz.”
Jordan was on the money for today’s trading as Gold went down and tagged $1908 today and then rebounded up back above $1920 again. Now currently at $1927.
Dollar Index : Likely Pullback : 06:00 NY Time (Daily)
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/03/dollar-index.html
BDC – Do you think the Dollar is just going to pullback to that upper rail/trendline to test that support area before heading higher again, or do you think it may get back in that channel it was in for so long?
Matthew — The trend for the Dollar is higher, until it changes.
(?) I didn’t see Matthew ask you anything about the Dollar, but I had asked where you thought support was going to come in based on your comment of “Dollar Index : Likely Pullback” and the chart outlining that trendline that you had annotated.
The response back that the “trend for the Dollar is higher, until it changes” seems at odds with the comment about a “likely pullback,” but it’s possible you are talking about 2 different timeframes. For clarity, I wasn’t asking about the longer-term trend (which has been steadily grinding higher), but asking where you felt the shorter-term corrective move would find support in the likely pullback?
– Ex
LOL — My old eyes… of course it’s a reply to you.
Too much on the plate. Just bought BOIL.
Please change it to “Ex” if you can.
This pullback is short term.
(To hidden gap areas?)
Haha! Understood and no worries BDC. I just wanted to make sure I hadn’t missed something. 🙂
OK, so in the short-term a potential pullback to the hidden gap area. Initially I was thinking you were showing that trendline as a potential downside support target. Just curious to get your technical thoughts.
Well, getting ready to batten down the hatches for another day of commodity craziness, and a day of potentially rough seas and more selling pressure in the mining stocks.
As for buying BOIL – Good luck to you sir in the Nat Gas trade. I’ve got a relatively new position in NG Energy with Nat Gas exposure, so that’s the way I’m playing it for now.
Ex — The Dollar Index was MaxSat(7) high on March 7th. The earliest it can become MaxSat(7) low is this Friday, if at all. The lowest likely gap fill is at 96.21; however, such final supposed fill may really be a ‘sucker gap’. The hash Lime Line is the first gap target, and may even hold.
Thanks BDC. I appreciate you unpacking those further technical details and readings on the greenback.
Broke even on BOIL. JNUG was the “Play of the Day”. Missed…lol.
ides of march?? here we go. LOL
2Day meeting of Fed at Fed Headquarters in Disney World…reality left at gates.
Paper gold walk down started at 4:00AM CST. Did a participant on the KE site decide to short the paper market? Maybe it was someone like the New York Fed as they have access to a rainy day fund of a Sovereign State. Maybe not … but maybe.
Ominous Gold low (Bullion Vault): 1914
exactly bdc. Let’s see if 1914 morning low holds for today / tomorrow. Miners need to finally outperform the metals trek. Holding water for now.
Spx holding like sh t to a blanket for many days in spite of threat of combat escalation. Complicated with option expiry might just be worth a flyer before week’s end.
Saved!
Hycroft (former Allied Nevada) with $56 million financing
http://www.hycroftmining.com/wp-content/uploads/03-14-2022-Hycroft-Investment-by-Sprott-and-AMC.pdf
The stock was a 4 bagger in the last two weeks
It’s crazy that the meme-stock AMC (A movie theater chain) bought part of the financing for a Gold stock with Eric Sprott, with the stock moving in advance of the details being released today…. so somebody knew something in advance.
Some weeks ago I proposed three gold miners at bargain prices with $40 million MK
Hycroft HYMC – now $180 million ($70 million cash)
Excellon EXN – now $50 million ( nearly no cash left)
Elevation ELVT – now $30 million + $20 million financing planned
EXN will need a financing soon.
ELVT gets cheaper and cheaper
HYMC doesn’t look cheap anymore
decent dump with partial recovery in gold better for silver, yet finally lots of green with the miners. That outpace is what’s needed. Still sitting flat
This big Andrews fork marked the recent major low for GDX vs SPX. The ensuing move was 56% in three months…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3A%24SPX&p=W&yr=6&mn=7&dy=0&id=p28233509932&a=1125846507
Gold versus the corrupt CPI is going to break out of a giant 40+ year bullish cup and handle pattern.
I’m sure at least part of the following chart will be cut off (pre-1982, I think):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24%24CPI&p=Y&yr=75&mn=1&dy=0&id=t1083246241c&a=915844735&r=1647369622372&cmd=print
LME to Reopen Nickel Market March 16 After Xiang Short Squeeze
Jack Farchy 14 Mar 2022
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/lme-to-reopen-nickel-market-wednesday-after-tsingshan-bank-deal