Jordan Roy-Byrne – Enduring The Short-Term Corrective Pain, For The Longer Term Precious Metals Gain
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us with his technical outlook on the recent corrective action in the precious metals sector, while still in the context of a longer-term secular bull market. On the daily and weekly charts, after a solid move higher in Q1, both gold and GDX failed to breakout above key resistance areas and got overbought, showing they needed to bullishly consolidate these recent moves before the next leg higher.
We look forward into how the precious metals markets will respond to future Fed policy, where the central bank eventually switches from hiking rates to reversing course and then cutting rates. Next we transition over into how longer-term both gold and the precious metals miners will resume their uptrends after a few months of consolidation, completing the handles on the 2 bullish cup & handle patterns. The discussion wraps up with Jordan making the point that eventually the general equities will capitulate and start correcting, and that this is impetus behind the precious metals sector diverging and making much higher highs.
Should have sold scuzzy couple of weeks ago when it was near the upper bolly. Now here sits scuzzy at the lower bolly and it’s getting me down.
Personally I trimmed back just a wee bit of SCZ scuzzy back on March 21st, but am mostly holding and have a position still well in the green, so no complaints here. Santacruz has done way the heck better than most other silver or gold juniors so far this year.
Price Quality: https://tinyurl.com/yc794bru
NatGas Top. Quick Correction?
Deflation Card?
Could have sold the whole scuzaree at .53, now here it sits at .43
Gotta know when to hold em,
Know when to fold em
Slowly purchasing consistently now—-what’s good is some stocks are correcting while others are topping out. I purchase those that have corrected while waiting for others to correct—that allows one to roll back and forth.
Good strategy Doc. Any specific stocks that you feel have corrected far enough down to be nibble-worthy?
The only 2 new positions I’ve added in the last week have been buying back into Integra and GR Silver, as they’ve been pretty well crushed at this point. 2 weeks ago I did buy back my Fury, Elevation Mining, and Wallbridge positions as well as they’d all been dragged behind the woodshed and beaten as well.
Anything else catching your eye that has priced in much of the downside at this point?
Ex, I’ve been waiting for Fury to pull back which it did today so I purchased some—it might not be over so I’ll purchase more as it moves lower. The stock chart I absolutely love technically is MUX. Every month that it touches the lower BB I purchase a nice number of shares—I believe we have a few more months where MUX will do this. I also like the way FSX is bottoming on the monthly. I’ve started to purchase. I bought a little ITR.V today to just put it on my watch list. I’m waiting here soon to purchase some EXN. https://schrts.co/pSHUaAVf
Ex, thanks for alerting me to elevation mining—do you like it and why? I bought a boatload of Mirasol awhile back—look at that chart—it’s really starting to move.
Good pickups Doc on FURY, MUX, ITR, and FSX. Yes, I’ve got positions in the first 3 of those, and looking to get back in FSX, but as mentioned when we chatted elected to go with Bryan’s other company ZAC instead.
As for ELVT, I just went on a long rant about it recently responding back to Terry calling it a “headscratcher” so I’ll just repost that here.
We are working on getting them on the show, but apparently they are rebranding their message to the market and will be coming out to update investors in the not so distant future. Personally, as prior shareholder of Northern Vertex, I was a bit puzzled at the acquisition of Eclipse for Hercules when they didn’t even have the funds to do much exploring on it last year, so what was the rush in acquiring it then? Why didn’t they just put their head down and charge on the Moss Mine, as apparently they’ve got a good land package with plenty of exploration.
It didn’t really seem like either prior companies group of shareholders really liked the merger, but it is what it is at this point, and is water under the bridge, so any remaining shareholders are in for the combined assets. Now the team running Elevation Gold is largely made up of the prior Eclipse team with some remaining Northern Vertex members, and the primary initiative is to explore and expand around the Moss mine, and rightly so, to extend the mine life and look for ways to get the revenue higher, to avoid needing more capital raises. At these higher metals prices, gold producers should be able to turn a profit. That should be primary, but I’m still curious to see if they are going to finally do any work to start exploring or developing Hercules, and am looking forward to seeing if ELVT can get things turned around with both operations and improved with investors sentiment towards their 2 projects.
Personally, I recently added just a bit more last week, as the market cap of this company is really quite silly as a gold producer, being valued below many grassroots explorers, and apparently getting zero value for Eclipse’s prior flagship project Hercules. I’m hoping it is not just throwing good money after bad at this point, but I’m willing to take a punt down at these levels that the management team and board can relaunch this company to the marketplace and gradually start building value once again.
ELVT valued more like a Russian stock, very low.
I’d submit ELVT is valued worse than Russian stocks. Ha! Yes, a silly valuation for a gold producer, and while it has not been well-received by the market, I added a position to play it for a turnaround story.
Gold is ~1925 spot. If it continues to hold anything is possible. (Fast?)
If it nears 1900 it will likely fall to JRB’s 1880, and maybe much lower.
Good point BDC, Gold is back down around that $1920-$1921 level of support… again…. but it’s held a number of times there in previous weeks both as an intraday support, and even at closing levels on the daily and weekly over the last month or two. As Jordan mentioned though, a breach of this level down to $1900 or even $1880 wouldn’t be surprising over the next few weeks, but I’m not expecting to see the yellow metal fall out of bed or anything.
Gold just dipped down to $1922.10 briefly and then has bounced back up to $1923.80 at the time of writing this.
CPM Group’s 2022 Gold Market Update
Apr 6, 2022
“The 2022 Gold Market Update gives a brief overview of what we saw in the gold market last year, and provides CPM Group’s Gold Outlook for 2022 and Beyond.”
Note the wicks around 1900 : https://postimg.cc/Zv6dFtDN
Oil closed below its 50 day MA for the first time in over 3 months and also took out important fork support…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51167516530&a=1126405008
$85 is probably coming soon…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p37210354772&a=941409869
Option time on UCO/SCO…
TSX Venture vs gold finally filled Friday’s big gap up…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85239974383&a=1111505506
I forgot all about the symbol CDNX for the TSX Venture Index, now I’ll have more info on it, thanks Matthew.
Here’s a monthly view with two Fibonacci fans and a fork that marked the February high…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=t4752297441c&a=574751412&r=1649312082251&cmd=print
The following fork is based on the 2008 low, the 2011 high and the 2016 low. It gave us the 2016 high, the 2020 crash low as well as the two highest highs of 2021. Its resistance is currently around 1,000…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&yr=13&mn=11&dy=11&id=p22721674894&a=1138317405&r=1649313093637&cmd=print
Here’s the standard link for stockcharts subscribers:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&yr=13&mn=11&dy=11&id=p22721674894&a=1138317405
Here’s a weekly look at CDNX vs Gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=9&dy=0&id=p78223013752&a=1111516519
Thanks again for the charts! Is Denison like trying to hold a balloon under water? Denison Mines, DML.
Assuming this strength holds up through the close today, DML looks fantastic…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DML.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=18&id=p84383497862&a=1138699210
Sorry, but I bought Westhaven today. It immediately entered my rotation. This is about the 4th time I bought into it. If they can extend this recent find, maybe this time it will move. It does increase the possibility of being attractive for purchase. We will see …
Athabasca Oil, ATH. Average shares sold per day around 5m, today, 31m on what looks like mediocre price day but it could be new support area IMHO. Trading at a p/e of 2.6x with 500m shares out.
The Fed Just Disengaged Its Volatility Suppression Machine
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (04/06/2022)
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/04/06/the-fed-just-disengaged-its-volatility-suppression-machine/