Jordan Roy-Byrne – Fundamental Macroeconomics Will Drive The Gold Market More So Than Technical Trading

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us look at the key technical and fundamental data points he’s following for gold and the gold mining stocks.  We start off with a technical discussion around the widely discussed $1675 support level in gold, and why Jordan feels it is significant, but not nearly as much as the break we already saw in the upward slowing trendline coming out of the lows during the spring of 2021 up through the lows in May of this year, that now has a downside projection of just over $1600.  We also discussed the concept a few different technicians have submitted that we may have seen a double-top pattern in gold with the two highs above $2000 in August of 2020 and then again in March of 2022.  Jordan feels that this double top was indicative of most market participants posturing that the Fed will keep hiking for longer and that the recession will be more mild, but he feels the Jerome Powell pivot will likely be coming sooner than many expect and that we will not see a “soft landing” and the recession will be longer and deeper than many are prepare for.


It is for these reasons that Jordan points out that charting technicals are context, but they are not a catalyst, and rather the actual drivers of the gold price will not be a particular pattern or support level coming into play, but much more so the macro policies of the monetary and fiscal policies playing out, and the health and readings of the economy.   We do go on to get his technical outlook for the gold mining stocks, and some support levels in GDX and GDXJ, and he feels they are so oversold they could have a relief rally, but ultimately the gold miners need better margins and that will come by seeing a higher gold price in response to the Fed policy pivot.  We wrap up with him dispelling the notion that a pivot back to cutting would simply be good for all markets, as it will be in the context of a worsening recession and so while their may be an initial bounce in general equities, longer term the precious metals will diverge much higher in real terms versus the stock markets or the rest of the commodities.



Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily gold.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:56 PM

    And WHOOOOSH!!!
    Down goes the price of gold!!
    Rising input costs? Check.
    Currency headwinds? Check.
    Declining price? Check.
    The only thing left for mining stocks to do is to go down.
    You could have sold Monday and Tuesday, but you didn’t, did you?
    Well get ready for lower prices because they are a comin’!
    Wait until the earnings reports start coming out.

    I know things look bleak, but there is one thing you can do to help.

    SELL NOW!!!!

      Jul 20, 2022 20:59 PM

      If not for Joe ‘the tell’
      who would ring the bell?

        Jul 20, 2022 20:08 PM

        Good point BDC. Yeah, someone rung his bell alright. 🙂

          Jul 20, 2022 20:22 PM

          Funny, my portfolio, 99% junior miners, was up today

            Jul 21, 2022 21:49 PM

            Yes, I was essentially flat on the day for Wednesday, but earlier in the day my portfolio was up.

            It is interesting to note that, once again (for the 4th time in the last 2 weeks), Joe calls for “Sell, Sell, Sell” and all 4 mining ETFs have been up and in the green all day. He may be the best contrarian indicator out there. Haha! 🙂

        Jul 20, 2022 20:11 PM

        Dollar Index : Summer 2022 : Hunting the Gap : Downside first?

          Jul 20, 2022 20:12 PM

          Dollar rule too, shall pass.

            Jul 20, 2022 20:36 PM

            After such a big run higher in the US Dollar, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it come down and tag that 50% retracement you outlined down in the 105.30 area, before maybe seeing one more blow off top.

            Jul 20, 2022 20:45 PM

            That is a logical confluence area,
            but if it holds at 38.2%,
            more to come.

      Jul 20, 2022 20:07 PM

      Well that’s rather presumptive of you Joe.

      Actually I did trim back 5 positions yesterday in the strength, after we’ve seen a rally in many of the mid-tier PMs and other resource stocks off their lows the last 2 weeks, while you’ve been yelling sell, sell, sell {in ALL CAPS almost every day}.

      Again, people could make a small fortune day-trading against the daily calls you make if they were nimble traders.

      After not selling the last 2 weeks to cower in cash, but conversely putting some cash to work, I’ve seen a nice run in some of the stocks purchased, so I decided yesterday to harvest a few gains to build up more dry powder, just in case we see more weakness heading into Fed rate hikes in 1 week.

      Today was essentially flat on the day in my portfolio (with essentially no change -0.007%) , and more of mixed bag with a number of Silver/base metals plays up quite nicely, along with the Uranium stocks, but with the gold stocks more down overall as a group.

      If we see more weakness tomorrow, then I may add a little more to some of the more beaten down names for a better cost basis, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a bit more weakness as we head into the FOMC meeting and rate hike next Wednesday, that can be capitalized on with more buying and putting that cash to work.

        Jul 20, 2022 20:01 PM

        I’m a little concerned about gold and wonder if silver/energy metals might be better….and stay closer to home in the tier one jurisdictions.

          Jul 20, 2022 20:24 PM

          Yeah, the Silver stocks are more destroyed here in valuations (which is normal during corrective moves) and the silvers tend to be peppier than Gold stocks on the way back up. I think those watching from the sidelines are going to be surprised how quickly they can surge, and will be stuck chasing…. once again.

      Jul 21, 2022 21:27 AM

      Looks like the selling is about done and a bottom is in place. Too bad Joe will be left behind.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:33 PM

    all his words are described in one weekly gold chart…

    a volume confirmed ABC down w 1:1 target of 1588 or 1.272 of 1508….

      Jul 20, 2022 20:20 PM

      I didn’t get the impression Jordan sees gold going down Below $1600 (his target is slighty above $1600 actually, but he just rounded it off to $1600 for listeners).

      Larry, the targets you described at $1588 an $1508 are further below what he’s expecting, but thank you for sharing your work with us here at the KE Report, as it is appreciated.

      As mentioned a number of times, I personally don’t want to see $1675 get broken, because it would denote a new “lower low” in the intermediate term, and break the pattern of “higher lows” we’ve seen since Dec 2015…which is bearish and creates even more chart damage, and confirns we’ve been in a new cyclical bear market since August of 2020. The saving grace so far has been we’ve not seen a substantial lower low put in during the cyclical bull market the last 6 years.

      The bad news is that we already saw the lessor “higher lows” of $1780 and $1721 break to the downside, so another failure seems likely, and it’s alreadypretty much confirmed we’ve been in a bear market the last 2 years. Gold is already back down just under $1700 (again), so it’s pretty darn close right now to retesting $1673-$1675 again. We could see that test next week prior to the Fed’s July rate hike. The caveat being if the basis points hiked surprise the markets. That could provide one last place for gold to hold support at $1673 on a closing basis, so we’ll see next week.

      If that support zone gets tested again for a 4th time, then it will likely break lower, and so first support would be the 200 week MA down around $1650 first, then the low $1600’s like Jordan & Doc have both outlined, and after those then your $1588 and $1508 levels (which personally I’d be very surprised to see hit, snd that would be bear market

      Jul 20, 2022 20:12 PM

      That’s a big obvious legitimate target which is why it probably won’t be reached. The wash out will happen as soon as last year’s low is taken out but the buying that will be triggered will likely cause a bullish severely truncated C.
      On the daily chart I see a 5 wave decline since March that could easily be completed tomorrow.
      With gold now at 1692, a small 1.4% drop would take it to a new low below last year’s low 16 months ago and would also put it at a decent fork support.

      I won’t be surprised if gold finishes tomorrow higher after taking a dip lower.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:46 PM

    Thanks Joe. I took some losses this week and one was selling NG Energy to take a 57% loss. I think it went up 45% today. I wonder what price it will be at in 30 days when I can buy it back. 🤭

      Jul 20, 2022 20:31 PM

      Lakedweller2 – That is a bummer on your trade out of NG Energy for what read as if it was for a tax loss.

      It’s the only Nat Gas stock I still hold at present, and was thrilled to see GASX up 49% today. It will likely give up some of those gains tomorrow though, and that may give you a window back in it.

        Jul 20, 2022 20:01 PM

        I was thinking about buying back in early also. It’s hard to guess when to take losses when the the take down appears irrational.

        Jul 20, 2022 20:36 PM

        Definitely going down to tomorrow as it was a 50,000 market order in last minute that pushed up so high.

          Jul 20, 2022 20:15 PM

          I just pulled up NG on the OTC Markets and it only shows 1000 shares in the last few seconds to paint a more than 10 cent pop. 50,000 sounds more like it but why would anyone want to pay that much more at the close with that many shares. Something fishy in Denmark.
          Set up an opening short?

            Jul 20, 2022 20:52 PM

            It was on the venture exchange. It would be very fishy if news was released in the morning

            Jul 20, 2022 20:11 PM

            I guess the Venture popped about + .136 on or so on 50,000, while the OTC was +.105 or so on 1000. I guess the 1,000 was a housekeeping trade of sorts on the OTC. Strange stuff as both stand out like a sore thumb

            Jul 20, 2022 20:29 PM

            Hey guys, well, if the volume was that low, then it was likely just a “fat finger trade” where someone accidentally placed a market order and the high ask was tagged. It will likely get reversed back down tomorrow then.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:16 PM

    Ex might be making money these days but I’m treading water, not up or down for the last 3 months. DT

      Jul 20, 2022 20:27 PM

      DT, to be clear my overall account value is definitely down on the year, but I made some money on the recent trades I made adding two weeks ago in resource stocks (when hardly anybody wanted to add to positions) and then trimming 5 of them back a little yesterday.

      Then there are paper gains on the most of the other 2 dozen positions that I bought around the same time that I’m holding for the longer term. Those advances could just as easily get erased in the next week or so, but I’m willing to hold through any short-term weakness in them for the bigger prize when the sector turns back up this Fall. I don’t feel adding to them the last 2-3 weeks was overpaying or buying while things were pricey or overbought, so in due time I expect large returns in those.

      I also needed a way to raise more funds, and for me doing short duration swing-trades is the best method for generating more dry powder. As a result I’m back to 3% funds available again, and down to 97% deployed.(down from 99.3% deployed just 2 weeks ago).

        Jul 21, 2022 21:32 AM

        Hi Ex, thanks for the update on your trading, I’m thinking this fall maybe the time to be out, right now I am fully invested and hoping for a bit of a revival in the next six weeks, but I am being very vigilante. Cheers, as you say! DT

          Jul 21, 2022 21:47 AM

          Yes, sounds good on that revival in the next 6 weeks DT. Bring it on!! Haha!

    Jul 20, 2022 20:33 PM

    Mid day today, I was pondering at what price point to average down in GASX. POP! Back to break even

    Jul 21, 2022 21:22 AM

    Just watched Michelle Makori interview Jim Rogers on Kitco. How did she get that job?

      Jul 21, 2022 21:33 AM

      Unlike KER interviews, there is seldom any meat on the bone with hers.

    Jul 21, 2022 21:52 AM

    Looks like news, insider trading and a hit on a well in Sinu-9. I can only hope the algos smash it down like it is a miner.
    NG Energy

      Jul 21, 2022 21:20 AM

      Watched it drift down for a long time, made up every excuse not to buy. Then when I could have bought it for a better price than most everybody, didn’t.
      Broke even on it.

    Jul 21, 2022 21:55 AM
    ECB went heavy on rates: .50
    (.25 expectation).
    $ down.

      Jul 21, 2022 21:45 AM

      Snap back. ECB rate hike may not be enough.

      Jul 21, 2022 21:51 AM

      That’s interesting that the ECB went more hawkish than expected… just like Canada did. We’ll see if that is what the Fed does too at next week’s meeting.

        Jul 21, 2022 21:42 PM

        Yes, all eyes on the Fed now. Those increases caused today’s Dollar pull back, but it bounced after retesting the 38.2% level. This and the gap area at 108 may act as a short term trading range.

    Jul 21, 2022 21:42 AM

    Got back NG Energy 12,000 @ .68. I guess with my wash sale I will have an adjusted basis. OK …. better than paying .85 or something.

      Jul 21, 2022 21:08 AM

      Well the initial sell off happened as anticipated. Actually surprised it’s back in mid .90’s again already….. I’m talking in Canadian.

        Jul 21, 2022 21:56 AM

        So far, so good. I have made back most of my tax deduction and with the wash, still have that previous loss mixed into the basis. However, if things go well, the previous loss may become moot. Thanks for your projection that opening would go negative.

        Jul 21, 2022 21:57 AM

        Forget everything I said. Typical walk back. Account the same as every other day. Somewhere close to even.

    Jul 21, 2022 21:47 AM

    My target for HL is $2.47, Barrick $12, SSRM $11, AEM $33
    Back up the truck moment if you ask me.
    Candy man is stuck in traffic and won’t be ringing your doorbell anytime soon.

      Jul 21, 2022 21:48 PM

      CJ you might get Fortuna for $2.47 but not Hecla.

    Jul 21, 2022 21:46 AM

    The Housing Market Enters Into Recession — Here’s What To Expect Next

    Lance Lambert – Wed, July 20, 2022

    “The housing cycle—which began its upward climb in 2011—has officially turned over. Simply put: We’ve moved into a housing recession.”

    “On Tuesday, we learned that homebuilders broke ground on 982,000 single-family homes in June. That’s down 19% since February, and down 16% from the same month in 2021. While it’s hardly a “blow out,” it’s clear builders are cutting back. Historically speaking, that’s exactly what happens when a housing cycle turns over: As existing home inventory—which builders compete against—begins to spike, homebuilders start to cut back.”

    “Peak euphoria is behind us. We are giving back some of the euphoria [home] pricing that was rolling over every housing market,” says Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

    “Existing home inventory will continue to rise, and homebuilding will continue to slow. At least that’s the view at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which does consulting work for both builders and investors. As it does, the ongoing housing recession (i.e. a contracting housing market) could push home prices lower in bubbly regional housing markets.”

      Jul 21, 2022 21:12 AM

      Hi Ex, Canada is in DEEP DOO-DOO! Front Loading: Canada’s Mortgage Rates Hit Housing Market Amid Monster Rate Hikes. This is just the beginning, we haven’t had a correction since the end of 1989 and the beginning of 1990, which lasted eight years. This one will be a Whopper! Much Bigger! Many mortgages here for $500,000, $600,000,$700,000,$800,000,$900,000,$1,000,000, and to infinity. The construction industry is going to see hard times like they have never been through before. Soon it will be time to sell apples and plant trees. DT 😜

        Jul 21, 2022 21:27 PM

        Good points DT. Apparently Canada and the US learned nothing from the housing boom from 2001-2007, and the unbridled speculation and naive assumption that housing prices can only go up that eventually led to the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis.

        History doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes.

    Jul 21, 2022 21:08 AM

    Perfect double bottom for the HUI (not yet technically confirmed):

    Jul 21, 2022 21:51 AM

    AAPL is up 20% since bottoming at fork support 5 weeks ago and looks like it can continue higher…

    Jul 21, 2022 21:26 AM

    Like commodities in general, sugar will be in correction mode for awhile…

    Jul 21, 2022 21:44 AM

    Thanks to someone on another site we know that James Bianco gets it. Similar to what I’ve stated repeatedly for months, Bianco Research said the following this morning:
    “With the upper end of the fed funds rate currently at 1.75% and CPI at 8.60%, the real funds rate stands at -6.85%. Throughout any hiking campaign of the past five decades, the Fed has never stopped hiking before the funds rate was above CPI. If the market expects the fed funds rate to peak between 3.50% and 3.75%, that means inflation would have to move below that level before the Fed gets what has historically been a sign to stop hiking. Even then, the real funds rate has typically been a bit above zero before a rate hike campaign ends.” They may say they are expecting 3.75% Fed funds, but the markets are not really anticipating it. Saying one thing and doing another has been so ingrained because of the greatest financial bubble that it makes all these sentiment surveys suspect.”

      Jul 21, 2022 21:10 PM

      I will have to agree with Mr Bianco as my sentiment is suspect.

    Jul 21, 2022 21:22 PM

    I might think this was a joke if I haven’t been following this company which is now my largest holding. If you go in big don’t worry about the price as much as does this company have a mine on it’s hands. Have a look at these goods, the drill (now 3) has been churning out huge intercepts time after time, hit after hit. If you like Silver and tin with base metal credits you need to read this news release, or any of them, they are all barn burners.

    Eloro’s latest intercept,188.64 g AG eq/t over 348.6 meters. DT

      Jul 21, 2022 21:47 PM

      My third largest position (eloro), but I need more after this release.

    Jul 21, 2022 21:24 PM

    I might think this was a joke if I haven’t been following this company which is now my largest holding. If you go in big don’t worry about the price as much as does this company have a mine on it’s hands. Have a look at these goods, the drill (now 3) has been churning out huge intercepts time after time, hit after hit. If you like Silver and tin with base metal credits you need to read this news release, or any of them, they are all barn burners.

    Eloro’s latest intercept,188.64 g AG eq/t over 349.08 meters. DT

    Jul 21, 2022 21:34 PM

    Odd day IMO. Gold having a pretty good day and stocks barely positive. Gary says: