Jordan Roy-Byrne – A Technical Outlook For Gold, Silver and GDXJ
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold joins us to share his outlook on the gold, silver and GDXJ charts. We discuss the recent bounce over the past month and if it has done anything to change the generally bearish outlook. This also ties into a question asking if the PMs are in a bear market or simply a bull market correction. Also when it comes to catalysts that could shift overall direction there could be a couple before summer is over.
What ??? Did Jordan say Silver could fall to $14. Was JOE right all this time sell on any rally metals bottom not in?????
Yes, Jordan did mention, in his technical outlook that if $18 Silver were to fail to hold as support that the next support doesn’t come in until $14-$15 on the monthly charts, from his perspective.
Paul you’ve been vocally bashing Jordan for the last 2 years, many times we bring him on the show, so why in the world would You start listening to him now…? Oh… because it feeds your bearish bias…. He is wrong if he’s bullish, but you take him seriously if he is bearish. How convenient… 😉
No, that doesn’t make Joe correct in the slightest with his repetitive “sell, sell, sell, and run to cash” calls that provide no fundamental or technical rationale, and never discusses when he’ll be bullish or putting that cash to work buying when things are low. He NEVER said anything about selling the rallies, and is just a broken record. In fact, Joe has missed a half dozen trade setups for rallies in the PMs and often serves as a good contrarian signal where we see a short-term low with his repetitive bluster.
You guys act like there weren’t all these opportunities to buy low and then sell high, which we always see each year, and like everyone bought the top, took no other action, and then sat in the stocks watching them go lower. That is not real world nor what most investors did.
As for the potential of a $14 Silver handle, let’s not put the cart before the horse here.
(A) $18 did just hold as support, in fact, where Silver then rallied to over $20. To assume it is just going to get sliced through there imminently is a big leap of faith. Sure, it’s possible, but it’s at $19.80 currently so not really close to happening at this point.
(B) The next overhead resistance is at $21.41 and ultimately above $22 (prior support is now resistance). If Silver clears that level on a closing basis (preferably on the weekly chart) then it could just as easily break out to the upside as break down through $18 to the downside. If someone is taking a balanced approach then they should review both upside resistance as well as downside support, and not assume either is a given… both are potential outcomes.
(C) $18 is near production cost for the silver miners, so anything at $17, $16, $15, $14 will start shutting down production output from miners, and the cure for low prices would be low prices in that scenario. What would be the fundamental catalyst to drive Silver down to $14?
(D) There are other support levels between $18 and $14, and so to act like it would be a sure bet to head down that low is a stretch and not taking into account other support levels, where silver could bottom and bounce from.
(E) Jordan has also mentioned in multiple interviews that he sees the measured upside move in Gold up to $2500-$3000 in the next 2 years, so does that mean Joe is flat out wrong? No, because no technician is a prophet and they are simply sharing their targets, and more importantly it hasn’t happened yet.
(F) Even if Gold and Silver continue to pull back down, it will be time to be deploying cash into that weakness, not selling PMs near their lows and going to cash at this late stage.
Another hiccup opportunity.
To get 0ut or buy the dregs.
Joe sure causes a lot of defensive consternation.
Found guilty with no trial.
No. Joe provides no value and no logical fundamental or technical rationale with is repetitive trolling posts, and he has repeatedly taken joy in the pain of others losing money in the PM sector in some sick demented way. Sorry, most (including me) ignored his rubbish for a dozen or so posts until he wouldn’t stop the repetitive messaging with no logical thesis. No trial needed, the guys a garbage poster, and I’d question anyone defending his nonsense.
Sorry Ex but I’ve heard much worse from others here. In particular those which the site holds in esteem.
Fact is Joe has been right with his warnings past year and more that market gold sector direction was down. Lucky guess?? Most likely.
Those with pitchforks and similar age old technicals claiming the opposite did worse.
If only you knew what to do with a pitchfork or any chart. What an ignorant little turd of a humanoid you are.
Looks like Matthew escapes the condemnation Joe receives. Quite the standard Ex
I wouldn’t escape condemnation for long if I made a habit of marking lows like Joe does with his asinine hysterics. Here’s what he posted on the day everything bottomed last month (July 14th):
“PMs aren’t going to bottom for MONTHS.
IT’S OVER FOR PMS!!!!
Your losses will only mount for the rest of the year if you stay in these PM stocks.
If you haven’t sold yet, SELL NOW!!!!
How much more pain can you take?
Even oil is done. It’s toast, today’s rally from it’s daily low shows a clear pattern going back for weeks. It’s spikes low on a day, recovers, goes up a bit for a few days and the BAM!!! Down it goes again.
Oil will bottom at 75, give a take a few bucks.
CASH IS YOUR ONLY FRIEND HERE!!!!
CASH!!!!!!!
—End—
You and Doc are no better. The March and September lows of last year were worth buying and the low of late January this year was better yet neither of you had any clue whatsoever. Now we have an objectively better setup and you two still don’t get it. Yes, it could fail but it is amateurish to assume that it will. That’s how you get smoked like Doc did in 2016 and at every important low since. If you think his record is a good one you should stay completely out of this sector for your own good.
Jonsyl, Matthew regularly shares his charts here for all to see, with a logical thesis, points out which indicators, trendlines, moving averages, pivot points, divergences, etc…. may be of note, he uses logic to unpack his position. Often times he points out potential turns in given sector or stock or ratio chart. There is actually value to other investors in that.
Matthew also doesn’t tell people what to do with their investments, and has never told other people what they should do with their money or trading to my memory. In stark contrast, Joe is literally screaming at people on the site repeatedly advising them directly for over a year to sell, because they are going to need cash to pay their bills. No reasoning, no fundamental macro analysis, no quantitative analysis, no inter-market analysis, no technical analysis. Just sell because Joe says so… (huh?). Lakedweller2 along with myself have asked him repeatedly “Why?” What is the specific reasoning and where does he get his amazing insights, and he never replies back.
Most people would not come on here and start telling other investors what to do like they know best… but Joe sure does. Then many times he takes joy in others losing money in the PM sector, and that is what a troll does. Repetitive messaging, gas-lighting, meglomania complex.
>> How can you not see the vast difference between what they both post?
Matthew typically contributes more than most on this site, and Joe is just trolling with zero rationale behind his proclamations of certain doom and offers no value to investors here.
______________________________________
Now as for the name calling and bickering on the blog, I’m not a fan personally, but Jonsyl you do continually throw the first punch each time, and regularly take swipes at Matthew. Here’s a tip – if you’d quit going after him so regularly in your posts, then I’m sure he would never have posted many of the responses you receive back. You are your own worst enemy in that regard. What should I do, delete your swipes at him and his retaliations back to you? How about you guys work it out instead?
Look, this is intended to be forum of ideas, focused mainly on sharing investing insights and most of the time Matthew does do that almost every day.
Jonsyl, when do you actually offer us any investing ideas or insights? As far as I remember, you don’t really offer any investing ideas, and mostly come here to complain or be negative. You do bless us with regularly coming on to complain about your “dregs,” or keep complaining that there is a conspiracy with your posts disappearing (when the last 4 times it was your fault it went to moderation for putting 2 links in the same post, which we’ve discussed over and over after you accuse me doing something to your posts). You then call any sector or pundit interviews others including me share on the blog, with good points in them for investors to consider… just more “Kitco” cheerleading posts, or you go on to poke fun at the drill results our exploration company sponsors put out (that fund the functioning of this website I might ad). Where is there any value to anyone else here in any of that? Then you keep going after Matthew and are surprised when he responds back in a nasty way.
I’m hoping cooler heads will prevail here and you both quit going after one another, but I’ll leave it to you both to figure out how to be civil.
Thanks Ex. Your assessment is correct. Jony can’t post without taking a shot because needs attention when a single down day scares him. He acts as if the July low has been already been taken out because his emotions make him unfit for this game.
In July as Joe said sell, I bought, with good results.
Yep, it was a good contrarian signal in early July, and I was buying the first 2 weeks and saw double-digit gains in most of the positions acquired over the next few weeks. I did fade some of them on the rally to raise more funds, and if we see more weakness the end of this week or beginning of next, then I may start deploying some of those funds to add back some more as positions pull back down.
Stillwater Critical showing a sign of life…
Yep, (PGE) Stillwater Critical Minerals up over 11% today. Nice!
I was checking Theralase on ceo.ca today and saw a Korelin article posted. I thought TLT was getting some coverage but alas it was only that ceo.ca picked up TLT Bond ETF as TLT Theralase. Well anyway….
Yes, I noticed that after I posted the Steve Penny post that the TLT for the 20+ year Bond ETF had the same ticker as Theralase, which it picked up as over at ceo.ca. Oh well, I think most investors following the bond space know that TLT is the primary ticker of note and will figure out when they look at Steve’s charts what he was getting at technically.
Silver/SLV pulled back where one should have expected it to. Such significant resistance often holds on the bulls’ first attempt because it is such an obvious place for bears and even bullish traders to sell. Those who don’t like attempting to identify lows as they’re happening can wait for a weekly close above last week’s high to buy.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03135689728&a=1230908007
Trends: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
Dollar Strength Plagues PMs
NatGas Topping Too
Oil The Tell?
Naked short ban in effect?
So far, Doc has been proven more right than wrong. Since 2015, it’s always been NEXT year
No one performed worse during the massive rise of 2016 and he has never called a low no matter how important or how obvious even well after the fact.
Matthew, your insecurity is showing again—-your problem is that whenever someone makes a positive comment about my very prescient calls you just have to try to find a time in the past where I said something that was not completely correct—if we did that with you it would fill volumes. You’re also upset that you miss completely important longterm tops and bottoms on a consistent basis—it’s fine you post charts, etc. for folks. I’m sure they appreciate it. I’m a long term investor, not a trader so I could care less whether I missed a short term bottom here and there (Sept./March of last year; January of this year). When you get the long term trend correct, that’s when you make the big money as an investor—short term investors often don’t make money because they get whipsawed—ex may be an exception. If you didn’t go after others like the guru you aren’t people would leave you alone —your skin is very thin.
Oh; I might also say; you have no sense of humor—-Joe is just a troll that comes on this board to stir the pot because he knows he can get under the skin of certain folks, especially those that were crowing how they were 100% invested at the top of the market in August 2020 since the market was going higher (when it was pretty obvious we were topping). That’s probably why some are so sensitive since they missed it entirely and are still nursing and licking their wounds of losses. When Joe comes on I just chuckle since I and other astute bloggers know exactly what he is doing.
You’re delusional and a liar, Doc. The facts speak for themselves. You have never called an important low and I haven’t missed one. The fact that you even shorted the miners in February 2016 shows you have no clue at all. The cat was out of the bag and you STILL missed it and missed it COMPLETELY.
At least Matthew stick his neck out and lays out what he think will come. Your “we’ll just have to wait and see” every other minute is a bit tiresome and gives you a free-card of being right always, no matter what happens.
I’ve been following this site for years and this is your only call (being mostly in cash) you got it right. For that you deserve recognition. But for the other 99 times out of 100 you got it wrong. I think by now most people now see through your “we’ll just have to wait and see” mantra, so please don’t pat yourself on the back to much.
Right on Battaglia. Doc’s dishonesty is the real issue. Even many who praise him are more competent than he is whether they realize it or not. He goes silent when the market doesn’t cooperate and then doubles down stubbornly at the first sign that his view might be right after all. The recent down days down are a good example.
It is still my view that this pullback was/is an opportunity to buy and a clear one at that. It is not a failure or the beginning of a failure of the action since last month’s lows. I view this intermediate low as distinctly different and better than the others that followed the 2020 top for gold and 2021 top for silver. Very short term (tomorrow), it looks like the miners will outperform gold easily and maybe even rise while gold drops a bit further.
Unlike Doc, I don’t leave myself a way to pretend I am right even when I clearly am not.
This is what I mean, you just have us something concrete. Doc said in late December/January that he was seeing buying opp in the summer or even fall. The Bollinger Bands told him that. Well ain’t that nice? He gave himself 8-9 months to maneuver: if it goes up he was right, if not he would still be right. And then he pushed it even further than fall, maybe even till the end of -22.
People and guests should own their calls and admit they were wrong. Jordan, just like Doc, was wrong all the time, until this one “great” call, which he didn’t acknowledge at first but then went more bearish as PM/miners tanked. We used to use him as a Dennis Gartman. Chris Vermuelen is another. This Sprott-mentioned prodigy recommended on his paysite ppl to get out before the bull even started. How sweet.
Jonathan Mergott was another. Heck, there is a lot of ppl just like these.
I sure know Dennis Gartman and understand your mentioning him but wasn’t aware of those details about the other guys (and never heard of Jonathan Mergott). Good to know…
Btw, the fact that “you could care less” about missing intermediate lows like the one in January should be a big concern to your followers because each of them gave GDX rises of 30-45% and could have turned out to be more important than you expected just like so many lows that you got wrong including the major one of 2018 when gold was under 1200 and you kept looking for lowers lows and never did call the low even later. The same thing happened in the spring of 2019.
Only a shyster would attempt to diminish the importance of missing intermediate lows that kick off 12 week advances. A real expert would at least identify such lows for his followers even if he went on to explain why he thought lower lows were coming. You did not do anything close to that. In real time, you never have a clue when such lows are forming. Your comments around them make that perfectly clear.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53538085188&a=1193746312
I agree DOC…You are a genius pill seller…Before the internet before the smart public studied why medical is pure wealth transfer fraud…enjoy your money…trading is working out equally well….fraud clinging to the past life when you could con the public….Sage astute compliant stooge of the medical cartel….if no one else does… have total respect for your ability to deny reality on all levels….
Larry,
Let it go you have not been here long enough to put fuel to the fire. Be a better person and don’t make things worse between to bloggers who are well respected far more then you for years here.
Also Larry take political stuff to the orphan area. It has been expressed many times respectfully.
Cheers
not when DOC unleashes invalid attacks over here..glen
Here’s one of his “prescient” calls:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83366253270&a=1232894500
Where does one get the nerve to pretend as he does? I think I know…
“The first indication of stupidity is a complete lack of shame.” – Sigmund Freud
just kidding..lol
doc, forget it.
Any dissent here with the esteemed poster is bound to be met with some harsh blowback of being
an ignorant little turd of a humanoid. Then comes the long winded rationalizations of how that is understandable, deep explanation that posts like the above by the minority of a half dozen characterized as baiting the group think crowd, and on and on. Yet never heard Joe or anyone else come off the rails the same way.
As I just said before, Joe is right with the direction of gold sector equities for the past year or so, it’s been down in spite of the pop ups you described.
To break even, let alone make money by being near fully invested at 95% invested with the drawdowns the gold sector equities have taken, and then to recover by surgically reinvesting the remaining cash or by selling and rebuying better performing losers, is not what I see as a winning strategy. Each to his/her own however.
Never been a perpetual bear here regretting MY dregs and other crafted BS. responses EX.
Posted my minor position taken after actually exiting in clear view here. Simply waiting to see their recovery at least matches the gold performance going forward to either dump or add.
This site is great to learn what not to do, by the majority group think posters who keep preaching to the choir and who are forever talking the good old days and hanging in for the long haul as the big one is on its way
.
Joe is a troll, gaslighting the site, and your support of his gibberish is quite revealing. Screaming “sell” with no actual reasoning is the same as screaming “buy” with no actual reasoning… a 50/50 chance of being correct on any sector at any time.
There is no group-think going on here as everyone has completely different outlooks, different strategies, different stocks they are invested in, and they are all at various places on the range of sentiment and engagement in the resource sector.
The fact that you need to keep insulting and dismissing the people that actually contribute meaningful ideas to this forum, is also revealing. What meaningful insights or ideas to assist other investors have you ever offered us Jonsyl?
How about out mid April, back in may and June lows with 25% position.
No adding with the last pop until some life with sector equities to at least keep up with underlying gold. NOT HAPPENING AS WITH PREVIOUS POP UPS.
Plenty of cash to benefit to add on with a Joe scenario or with sector equities to show life on upside with actual price performance.
There u go Ex.
Now u can repeat again the mantra of how dumb it was to miss this last pop up.
Thanks. Amazing insights.
GDX just finished a low volume super fast sell…assume checking for stops?…10 minute gdx…https://tos.mx/S69yETi
Larry, at about 10:30 the low should be 25.77 — there may be some stuff at 25.05 giving a false read.
The Dangerous Assumption Embedded In Today’s P/E Ratios
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – August 17, 2022
“Many investors like to use price-to-earnings ratios as a short-hand valuation tool for both individual equities and the broad stock market. Most of the time this can be useful but there are also times when it can be very misleading. Typically, those times are at the top or the bottom of the earnings cycle.”
“When earnings are unduly depressed due to recession or are over-inflated due to opposite economic circumstances, the denominator in the ratio is no longer representative of sustainable earnings potential. As a result the metric itself appears dramatically elevated at the bottom of the cycle or somewhat depressed at the top of the cycle, sending a false signal regarding value…”
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/08/17/the-dangerous-assumption-embedded-in-todays-p-e-ratios/
Understanding the Gold Cycle
Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA – The Daily Gold – August 13, 2022
“Falling and or negative real interest rates are the fundamental driver for Gold and are usually a byproduct of a weak stock market and economic recession.”
“However, today I want to focus on the larger cycle for Gold and at which points it performs and performs best. Secondly, perhaps more importantly, the Gold cycle has major implications for the gold miners. There have been three Gold cycles over the past few decades. Those were 2001 to 2007, 2008 to 2011, and 2018 to 2020.”
“The cycles revolve around bear markets in stocks and or recessions. Usually, but not always, Gold will begin to outperform risk assets (stocks, commodities, currencies) during the downturn. This typically precedes strong nominal performance and also strong outperformance from the gold miners. The turning point, in nominal terms, is around the time the Fed shifts policy and starts easing.”
/GC day has enough volume building to retest the gap below 7/26 candle…caution …TAS profile bottom is 1775..A close below that implies further down ahead…
The Dollar
yes sir BDC..dollar…big strong candles on day and week and month for that matter….the .618 above is slam dunk at 107.518…glta
This is for DOC eyes only….The technology really impressed you…good luck w that clueless reality…All the children destroyed by your vaccination kickback schedule….. right?….all a general doc has is the toxic anti-health pills and vaccines…that should destroy enough peeps to feed all the down-line specialists, right?…just doin my part, right?
not called the clot shot for no reason…ya know?…..sage…lmao
Here’s Doc’s chance to learn from a real expert who also happens to be honest:
https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/08/how-to-identify-a-person-killed-by-the-covid-vaccine-dr-ryan-cole-video-interview/
quite the rampage Matthew with all things Doc.
Not necessarily the best way to win someone over with your wisdom.
Funny. What on earth makes you think I have any interest in winning him over?
/GC 30 minute showing the next AB=CD down targets…Is this the last ABC down…Maybe…glta
https://tos.mx/UGQb6pv
Added – SILV – Silvercrest Metals @ $6.32, currently 21% cash.