Weekend Show – Is The Summer Rally Over For US Markets, Gold, Gold Stocks and Cryptos?
On this Weekend’s Show we feature Rick Bensignor and his outlook for a wide range of markets as well as Josef Schachter to highlight his energy investment conference in Calgary on October 22nd.
The last month has been mostly good for all sectors but it all might be ending soon as we move toward the end of summer.
Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email. We love hearing your thoughts on markets, what companies you like, and if there are any guests you would like to see on our show. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Rick Bensignor, Founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies kicks off the show by sharing his outlook for US markets, the US Dollar, interest rates, gold and gold stocks, oil, copper and cryptocurrencies. This is an extended segment (over 40 minutes) but there is a lot of good trading strategies no matter what sector you are investing in. Click here to learn more about Rick’s investment products.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Josef Schachter, Founder of the Schachter Energy Report joins us to highlight his conference on October 22nd in Calgary. Josef is bringing together investors and over 30 oil and gas companies for a full day. I attended this conference pre-pandemic and it was extremely valuable for all energy investors. Josef is also offering you a chance to win 2 free tickets by simply emailing the info below.
- Email – email@example.com
- Subject Line – KE Report Draw
- Include your first and last name.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Inflection Resources – Eastern Australia Gold Explorer Following Up On The Duck Creek Target
- Dolly Varden Silver – Recent High-Grade Drill Hits Near Torbit, Ongoing Drilling at Wolf and Homestake
- Snowline Gold – Introduction To This New Yukon Gold Explorer With 2 Discoveries Made Since Listing Last Year
- Libero Copper & Gold – Drilling At Big Red In The Golden Triangle, Updates From Esperanza In Argentina and Macoa In Colombia
- Calibre Mining – H1 2022 Operations Report And Successful Self-Funded 170,000 Meter Exploration Program On 15 Drill Rigs In Nevada and Nicaragua
- Novo Resources – Exploration Overview Now That Drilling Has Started At Purdy’s North and A Capital Update
- Aurion Resources – Exploration Update At The Helmi JV with B2Gold And At The 100% Owned Risti Project
- Impact Silver – A Broad Review Of Operations, Development, And Exploration Work At All Projects
‘Another Classic Upward Commodity Wave’
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (08/20/2022)
The Dangerous Assumption Embedded In Today’s P/E Ratios
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – August 17, 2022
“Many investors like to use price-to-earnings ratios as a short-hand valuation tool for both individual equities and the broad stock market. Most of the time this can be useful but there are also times when it can be very misleading. Typically, those times are at the top or the bottom of the earnings cycle.”
“When earnings are unduly depressed due to recession or are over-inflated due to opposite economic circumstances, the denominator in the ratio is no longer representative of sustainable earnings potential. As a result the metric itself appears dramatically elevated at the bottom of the cycle or somewhat depressed at the top of the cycle, sending a false signal regarding value…”
Real Yields Are About to Dump, Gold Rallies
David Brady – Sprott Money – Aug 18, 2022
“Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are the inverse of real yields. When TIPS rise, real yields fall, and vice-versa. Gold has an inverse correlation to real yields, such that when real yields rise, Gold falls, and vice-versa. This means that TIPS and Gold are highly correlated. When TIPS rise, so does Gold, and they fall together too. I believe TIPS, represented here by the “TIP” ETF, are about to shoot higher and Gold will follow suit. Real yields will dump.”
“The RSI and the MACD are at extreme lows now that are consistent with the beginning of prior rallies in TIPS, i.e., far lower real yields, which typically translates into far higher prices for Gold.”
The problem with using the TIPS as a data point, is that the Fed has been influencing and massaging those numbers for years, buying from 15%-25% of the TIPS, and creating an artificial market.
It is far easier and more accurate to just look at the 10 year yield (2.976%) and subtract it from the headline CPI number (8.5%) to get the real “inflation adjusted” rate of negative – 5.524%.
However, David is correct in the correlation between Gold and the TIPS markets, as that is the data that the HFT algos are keyed off of. So for better or worse, the real rates, seen through that lens of TIPS, is a prime mover in PMs trading as well.
Ex, you should ask David why he is blocking everyone who disagrees with him on Twitter. He’s kinda notorious for that. He even blocks ppl who gives the person who disagreed with him a like. Matter of fact he is considered a laughing stock.
He is intelligent and knows his stuff but the guy is struck by megalomania.
I don’t know about the Twitter blocks (as I’m not on Twitter) but I’ve been following David for a while at Sprott Money and over at Steve Penny’s site (as he is a featured analyst there) and I find him to be fairly accurate and very sharp using his FIPEST model. (the F is for Fundamental analysis, the I is Intermarket Analysis, the P stands for Positioning, the E is for Elliot Wave, the S is for Sentiment, and the T is for Technical Analysis).
I could see blocking trolls and hecklers on Twitter, as I and many others do that over on Ceo.ca. Life’s too short to repeatedly have to deal with stupid people. Disagreeing repectfully and professionally is fine, but some people just want to pee in the punchbowl.
Anyway, I don’t think David is a laughing stock in the circles I hang out in, but you are always going to have detractors if you do anything meaningful. There are detractors out there against a great many of the guests we bring on our show, but if we believe they have an interesting viewpoint and insights to share, then we don’t care what a few of their hecklers think.
Is there any punch left?
Only the Hunch Punch. Haha!
Energize Your Stock Portfolio
Eric Parnell, CFA – Seeking Alpha – Aug. 20, 2022
“In what has been an otherwise difficult year for stock investors, one sector has stolen the upside spotlight. After years of languishing in the performance cellar during much of the 2010s, the energy sector surged to the top of the total returns table in 2021. And its upside performance has been even more differentiated and pronounced thus far in 2022. Despite this recently strong performance, the outlook for the energy sector remains appealing for the rest of 2022 and into 2023.”
“Overall, the energy sector has posted a +46% return thus far in 2022, which stands in stark contrast to the overall market as measured by the S&P 500 Index that is still down by more than -10% even after its summertime surge. Making this sector performance all the more notable is the fact that only two other sectors are even in positive territory for 2022, which are safe haven utilities at just over +10% and also defensive consumer staples that are barely across the zero line.”
Diego Parrilla – European & Global Economies Are Dangerously Fragile
Wealthion – (08/19/2022)
Doomberg – Germany & Western Europe are Doomed
Wealthwise – August 18, 2022
“Doomberg discusses energy constraints and high prices in Europe and Germany, set to get worse and lead to a deep recession/depression in his opinion. He talks about the need to increase energy supplies and undo the constraints of the ESG movement.”
Another epic show…Off to a few real world errands…lmao
Thanks Larry. Good luck with the errands.
Rick Bensignor is always a treat!
+1 Agreed BDC. Rick is a gem and we appreciate getting his thoughts and him investing his time with us here in the KE Report.
The CRB has been topping vs Silver since May and the last few days accomplished nothing to make me doubt that.
If CRB:Silver manages to make a new high soon, it will likely be a bull trap.
As mentioned yesterday, the stock market is now a sell. If it gets some help this week because of Powell speaking in Jackson Hole, it will be a stronger sell.
Stocks are likely to fall hard versus the gold/silver miners after Labor Day if not sooner.
Well, Rick pretty much laid it out. Hope you were all paying attention.
The dollar is king and will reign supreme.
Gold on shaky ground and has virtually no tailwinds to speak of.
Mining stocks on the verge of getting crushed.
Like I said yesterday, you’re going to see many of these stocks trading at what they were going for in late 2018.
Do yourself a favor and SELL NOW!!!!
Ok. I’ll sell everything.
All normal Joe, the payoffs for PMs is always in the future.
They are obviously tradable for a profit tho.
D Morgan says in his interview on kitco, in 10 years no better investment than silver.
Always in the future.
Of course it’s always in the future. Tomorrow’s the future. No one cares about the payoffs of the past.
Silver is going to beat stocks and commodities over the next 1 to 2 years whether it makes a new low soon or not.
yup, all in the future.
lets hope stocks are barn burners and silver goes to da moon. 😉
You’re the only one talking about barn burners and the moon. 🤪
Not true, its already begun.
“It’s likely going to be very messy price action until the latter half of 2023, when I expect silver to finally begin its trip to $100 or more.” Greenspansconscience
It will be the same thing as it was the last time silver hit $50.
One day, silver will increase significantly, time will tell if it rises equal to less than or more than food for example.
Everything is going “to da moon” 😉
Well, except for what goes down of course.
OH BOY…’Be lucky if we make it till the end of the year.’…per Bill…
This is very interesting, of all the Materials critical for transition to a low carbon economy, by technology type, something that no one is talking about, STEEL is the most important material and it far outweighs the copper needs which are second on this list from A Head Of The Herd. DT CHEERS!
Do you remember the days when USS or United States Steel and General Electric were the boss stocks of The NYSE, and the sort of stocks that a cautious but knowledgeable investor would select with an eye to the long future. With all of the infrastructure build out required all over The World, what now seems like old technology will be the backbone once again of the future. America will be forced to go back to the future. DT
Smokestacks, or else!
From reading and listening to many of the informed opinions as presented on this site and others, it is unclear where things are headed in the near term. The charts appear to indicate “risk” but the interventions seem to promote retail involvement in the markets with the narrative that The Fed “will act in our best interests” to the extent possible. However, it also appears that the The Fed will have to pivot on interest rates and flood the banking with more current and future debt which can only delay failure and not prevent it.
The difficulty is that Politicians and Central Banking fabricated the false economy and are incapable of fixing it … but are also incapable of admitting it as the situation shows incompetence and criminal corruption. Therefore, the situation must remain counter intuitive until it isn’t. Any attempt to point blame at retail is a “false narrative” and should be disregarded. Those charged with leading us away from failure, are the very ones that created the situation. The overall problem is that they created the problem which they refuse to acknowledge. Therefore they cannot fix the problem without destroying themselves. We can be sacrificed but they will never address truth.
Hi Lake, It’s my opinion that Bob Moriarty explains better than anyone else what is happening in The World today, not only at home but abroad. I’m sure Putin listens to Bob because he seems to be taking direction from him. Listen to this latest interview but don’t click on the one with the pictures of Bob and the interviewer but rather click on the radio broadcast below. DT
DT, Bob Moriarty is a straight shooter who don’t give a damn fekk about snowflakes and unicorn children. It’s refreshing to listen to him.
That leftist commie bastard Inkacolanews always have a mental meltdown when BM writes or says something new. The only thing IKN points to is that BM is a Jew hater and a raging anti semitic, you know that old drivel that is a suppression technique, always used by butthurt leftists in order to shut ppl up who dare speak up and call the cabal out.
That crazy commie bastard is a nasty and evil sombitch, rotten to the core.
Leftists/collectivists run on evil and ignorance. Yes I know that’s redundant. They serve the worst people, ideas, agendas on the planet and don’t realize it. This is where we were (maybe still are?) heading because of their weaponized ignorance and cowardice:
Here’s an interesting statistic: Transparency International (quoted in wiki) says Russia is considered more corrupt in Eastern Europe than Ukraine. So I guess whoever wins should be given The Most Corrupt Award … then prosecuted for war crimes. Sounds fair.
Lake, the real danger on the horizon is what your government has taught you, that Bolshevism has been spreading in The United States since 1917. It’s called The Big Red Scare, and you my friend have been fooled. Your nation has gone on thinking for over a century with the mind of people who have been continually at war. When is America not at war. Your nation has learned how to strike down the thing they have been taught to hate. Not to argue or hesitate but to strike. You Lake have drunk The Kool Aid provided by your government and with all your rhetoric about the evils in your society you my friend have been sucked in by the propaganda machine. Hey fellows there is Putin, another Bolshevik! DT
I have an unfair advantage of education and actually working in the system that has been established under the Constitution. As a result I know bullshit from truth. Truth is very threatening to those easily corrupted by false rhetoric and soft ethics. But thanks for your comments.
Lake, You are not the only person on this sight who is educated so that in itself is BS, it’s too bad your education is wasted because the point of an education is to be able to think critically. DT
The experience/education which you wish to discredit indicates that those that resort to personal insult, name calling and bullying basically are coming from an unsupportable position or lack of personal confidence in their position. If that is true, it is not worthy of response or consideration. Issues are relevant and should always be supported by fact. Facts should be discussed and the adversary always respected and go free from personal attack as it is not relevant to arriving at the truth of a question. Bob Moriarty is a fine gentleman and an outstanding pilot. His facts are not without challenge.
When somebody say’s, “I have an unfair advantage of education”, you are being a snob. Just because you have an education you shouldn’t think you have an advantage. That is pure BS. LOL! DT😏
If some one has a degree in nuclear physics and was working in area requiring knowledge of nuclear physics, I would think that is a good thing. Doctors going to Med School wood be advantageous. Knowledge is a positive. There are many brilliant people on this site and I am not one of them.
But conversations often diverge to areas where I do have a factual basis for my opinions that most other’s don’t. If that deviates from someone’s impressions or beliefs than I would expect the courtesy of of at least not being discredited, called names or personally insulted because you personally find my knowledge conflicting with your beliefs. Argue the facts that support your beliefs and they may actually be compatible in some way with mine. Personal attacks may lead to miscommunication, otherwise. But, if you attack me personally, then I in-turn, will blow-off any unsupported beliefs you are asserting, thereby ending any hope for communication. One example: BM says everyone knows Ukraine is corrupt with the implication they are at fault for something. But it appears Russia is more corrupt and has documented more war crimes. Do you just accept that Ukraine is evil, or does one seek more facts to determine there may be two sides to this war and neither position justifies death to non-combatants. Why War in the first place, and why use corruption as a basis for validation. There can be many positions about how one feels about War but if someone believes it is a grand and wonderful thing, then at least they should accept that position will be challenged … but not by personal attack. Isn’t that one of the fallacies of War. (I don’t think BM is a fan of War. He lived too much of one.)
One of the sayings that a Criminal Lawyer learns from Day 1 is that “If the Facts are with you , try the facts. If the Law is with you, try the Law. If you have neither, try the Victim”. Resorting to Trying the Victim, is a last ditch effort to distort the facts and fool the Jury. It normally fails and discredits the attorney resorting to deceptive practices.
Again, when somebody say’s, “Doctors going to Med School would be advantageous. Knowledge is a positive.” Just because you are a Doctor doesn’t mean you can think for yourself. Where were all The Doctors when The Covid jab was being promoted as a cure. We all know the RNA vaccine wasn’t properly vetted, and has dangerous side effects. Really? I am not going to waste anymore of my time on responding. DT
Suit yourself. If my car has a problem, I am going to listen to a mechanic before taking it to a Doctor. I see your point. But, you want to argue about me instead of the issue or issues. It is common on blogs but I just think there is too much knowledge on this board to tarnish anyone with personal attack. Too nany good and sharp people. Sorry …
Ditto Lake………… you are spot on with the tarnish comment………..
Dollar Index : Summer 2022 : CROSSROADS : Not Sinking Down [for now]
Tweaked per ‘Millennial High’ (78.6%) : True ‘Crossroads’
Chapman Wave analysis suggests one more peak (‘F’).
Such final moves are often blowout rockets.
Just now the checked Rick Ackerman site. His target for the Dollar is 110.27 based upon a shorter time frame. Surprisingly, the 78.6% two decade target is 110.25 (see above).
Just now the checked the Rick Ackerman website. His target for the Dollar is 110.27 based upon a shorter time frame. Surprisingly, the 78.6% two decade target is 110.25 (see above). https://www.rickackerman.com/2022/08/dxy-nybot-dollar-index-last108-08/
This article says it all, for me at least…..The FED cannot conduct a Volker like tightening extravaganza….He had 30% debt to GDP…We have no real GDP except in selling medical non-care and insurance for that….and a supposed 125% debt to GDP…….The interest obligation will just crush government and bankrupt the nation in terms of capital deficiencies/liquidity………The article is expressing a belief that the Pivot must and will occur sooner…..GLTA….not funny times are these…
Good points Larry. Brien Lundin and Craig Hemke made similar points earlier this week about the difference between the macro backdrop that Powell has versus what Volcker had in the 70’s and early 80’s.
Tom Luongo on Tom Woods Show
Terry – Thanks for posting that interesting interview with Tom & Tom.
I decided to go over to Tom Luongo’s site after that and just did an interview with our buddy Craig that is also worth a listen.
Craig Hemke and the Case for the 100% Real Gold Market – Podcast Episode #116
Tom Luongo – August 11, 2022
Thanks! Interesting comments on Black Rock, and more.
NatGas Higher. PMs Lower.
Possible NatGas turn began pre-market.
Silver’s 100, 200 and 600 WMAs will converge with each other sometime in 2023, likely sometime between the spring and summer.
Before that convergence, I personally believe silver will be more or less range bound between its declining 100 WMA and flat 400 WMA, with short term overshoots possible.
It’s likely going to be very messy price action until the latter half of 2023, when I expect silver to finally begin its trip to $100 or more. Between now and then I think any buy around the 400 WMA, like now, is a good one. You just have to be patient. That being said, I am not so sure about the mining stocks, as they could possible make lower lows even if silver does not. They could also do the opposite too.
uup…looks like it will give it up…3 gaps up reversal pattern…testing high w much less RSI strength…but volume looks ok to plentiful…we will know if a reversal is in store by late wednsday…
Larry, spot DXY is not showing appreciable gaps (back to Thursday).
agree….i am projecting …lmao…but i treat uup as the cash index…thus not fully manipulated after hours…glta
however, technicals show uup closer to top than not…and gdx closer to bottom than top…imho
I think this statement is largely economic…https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/crazyland-2/
NEM is putting in its tradable swing low now…imho…it is a magnet for courage in the sector….if the uup can crack, as it should…bingo bucko……glta
Quinton Hennigh said some nice thigs about Brixton in his Crescat interview Friday. He called it a major discovery and concentrated in copper. I know there are some Brixton fans in the crowd. I added a few more Snowline as Dr Hennigh was real positive on it and went out on a limb for some estimates. Caution on both as they are early stage projects. Other positive comments were directed at Lion one and I-80. He mentioned 15 projects in all, so lots of info discussed. Forgot to add: I own all those I mentioned.
Dollar Index : Summer 2022 : Paper Flight : How High The Moon?