Brian Leni – Development Companies, A Playbook On How To Analyze These Stocks
Brian Leni, Founder and Editor of the Junior Stock Review website joins us to share his due diligence process on development companies. We discuss what Brian focuses on within the economic studies as well as what he looks for in the management team. We also balance out the exit strategy for both him, as the investor, and the company.
Brian is one of the best independent analysts we know for this stage of companies. He builds his own models and let’s the numbers guild his investments. Just because a company has advanced to the development stage does not mean that the asset will make money or even become an economic mine.
Click here to visit Brian’s site and follow along with his investments.
The 50 WMA went below both the 100 and 200 WMA in 2009 yet the 100 still didn’t cross below the 200.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&st=2004-03-21&en=2011-06-30&id=p68538974256
Yes, but notice that the 100 WMA did in fact essentially end up converging with the rising 200 WMA.
That is a possibility, but I don’t think silver price has dropped far enough for the same thing to happen. (It could yet.)
As I said I am not sure exactly how this is going to play out with respect to the 100 and 200 WMAs, but my point is, the odds of an imminent break out are extremely low this year or early next year, IMO.
It took silver 2 years off the October 2008 low to finally break above its March 2008 high.
Greenspanconscience – Those are some interesting observations regarding the 100 WMA and 200 WMA, and what is more probable to play out, prolonging the breakout. Thanks for sharing your technical outlook in Silver.
Hello green!
I’m trying to figure out if you are doc under a different alias or someone else we’ve had before. Very rare do I acknowledge posters or give them a thumbs up I have been listening to you here in there and you do make some great points so thanks for your input Glenn appreciates it.
Now from a charts or an investors point of view your outlook for silver breaking out of $28 next year in 2023 midpoint and being conservative is a common place to be with expert chartist at this point so nothing out of the ordinary with all due respect. Now with some of the things you are seeing in regards to silver blowing off or going higher I think you’re onto something.
I personally Glenn remain firm that we are going to have a green monthly candle in September and go straight to December or January and have a correction I believe Gold will not make a lower law and the miners already are going higher. I am putting my reputation on the line and I have no issues with that.
There is a camp in here that will remain cautious as always as to be super conservative. That’s is to be respected!!
The double weekly and monthly to me won’t be broken that’s just me. This is going to be a long term bottom 2/3 years lift off
Glen
By the way to the Brixton owners, last night I looked at the charts and said this is the highest level of manipulation I have seen and I’m so kissed off. It tuned like no tommirow because my charts are pointing at .21 first and then .28/.30 in quick sequence
My point is congrats Dan but I personally would not have sold but if your in the gain how can you not after all these two years of going down! Please recombined the resistance in patterns in your stocks.. Brixton will have a battle with .52/..56 next .30 will be broken on third test!
Glen
There’s no chance he’s Doc.
As I said in my original post, I think silver is a buy at or under its 400 WMA, as it is now.
For all I know, the final low for silver is in (I think there is at least a chance we could go marginally lower). But where I differ from Matthew (I believe) is I do not believe there is going to be a v shaped launch from here to new highs. We are either going to slosh around at these levels for a few months, or if we do see a massive V-rally imminently back to say, at or slightly above the 100 WMA, I think we will merely be the beginning of some sort of pennant consolidation over the next year.
I do think a V bottom is likely but it won’t be a dramatic move straight to 28+ this year.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p13745707001
I hope investors that are considering getting positioned into developers in the Gold, Silver, Base Metals, or Uranium space take a few minutes to listen to Brian Leni’s comments in this interview above.
Brian makes so many fantastic points on how he evaluates companies, and shares years of his experience in this sector. These are such valuable insights, that so many investors do not consider when looking at investing in mining companies with ounces in the ground defined in resource estimates and are working on economic studies on the pathway to moving a project towards production.
This was one of the better interviews that can really help resource investors fine-tune how to pick stocks that we’ve done in a while.
Brixton having interesting day…thanks Matthew.
+33.3% at the moment. It’s a good thing that such a day is happening on the biggest volume in over 7 weeks. Brixton has a bullish habit of backing up its best days with high volume.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p68697117503&a=1237842968
I like the quarterly picture:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=Q&yr=17&mn=0&dy=0&id=t8026158492c&a=1144040871&r=1662147166592&cmd=print
I like looking for chart analogs, and one I think is somewhat similar is AMD’s bottoming pattern between 2009 and 2016. Again, I like looking at longterm MAs, like the 100, 200, and 600 WMAs, and I think Brixton’s weekly chart from 2016 to present looks remarkably similar to AMD’s from 2009 to 2016.
Unlike AMD, I think Brixton won’t have to retest its 2016 low. (AMD formed a triangle with a flat base, whereas Brixton’s triangle’s base is rising.)
One other coincidental thing is that AMD based for almost exactly 7 years. It would be pretty crazy if Brixon launches in November 2022, which would basically be exactly 7 years since it bottomed in 2015.
I still believe silver’s 100 WMA will have to converge or cross below its 200 WMA at some point in the next 1-1.5 years. That could obviously be brought about in multiple ways but the stronger silver is, the longer the consolidation/convergence will take.
I’ll be wrong if silver manages to blow through the 100 WMA and stay above that MA before the convergence occurs, but that will be incredibly hard to call in real time given how volatile silver is and how it can overextend before crashing back down.
But the vast majority of charts across any sector support the notion that once the 50 WMA crosses below the 100 WMA, they will both eventually end up crossing below the 200 WMA thereafter before they are ever able to turn back up. I would estimate this occurs at least 98% of the time. Could silver flout that general pattern? Sure, but the odds are extremely long.
There are a few exceptions that you can point out. AAPL has managed to avoid a 100 and 200 WMA cross three times since 2000 and in none of those instance did the 100 WMA ever begin sloping downwards, which can’t be said of silver right now.
Whatever happens over the next year or so, I don’t think we are going to see silver break above $28 until mid 2023 at the earliest. I think a conservative estimate is that a durable breakout will more likely happen sometime in 2024. I expect the next 1 year is going to be extremely difficult/impossible to trade. If you believe in silver, just buy some when it’s at or below its 400 WMA like now, sit tight and don’t get too excited.
And yes, it could tack on $5 in short order, but the key will be overcoming the now downward sloping 100 WMA, which I don’t believe it will be able to do beyond 1 or 2 weekly closes before it reverses back down.
At some point in 2023 or 2024 though, silver is going to break out and start a run to $100 and hopefully beyond.