Weekend Show – Replay Of Dana Lyons and Dan Steffens Interviews – Bear Market Playbook and Energy Outlook
Shad and I were tied up at the New Orleans Investment Conference for the majority of the week so we are replaying a couple of the segments posted earlier in the week.
We will be back at it to kick of the week next week. We hope you all have a great weekend.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor of The Lyons Share website joins us to share his big picture and longer term playbook for this bear market. When we have Dana on we usually dive into his short term trading strategy for a wide range of markets. Since we are in a prolonged bear market we decide to take a step for the investors that want to limit losses but not have to watch the markets everyday.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Dan Steffens, President of The Energy Prospectus Group joins us to provide an update on the investing landscape for the energy sector. We focus on the oil and natural gas sectors by first discussing the OPEC+ meeting and the 2 million barrel per day cuts. We then move to the US which continues to withdraw oil from its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). This all ties into his price forecasts for oil.
- Dan is also offering a special discount to all of you wanting to subscribe to his service! All you have to do is send an email to Sabrina at firstname.lastname@example.org and they can ask for the promo code to get $100 off the first year.
Going much down more, it won’t end until December, maybe even January.
Interest rates up + high oil prices = lower gold.
It’s simple math.
This won’t end until you start seeing MANY junior gold/silver miners go bankrupt.
They’ll be carved up by the big players and choice properties gobbled up for pennies.
But don’t worry about the executives running these companies and the newsletter writers that help promote them, they’ll be fine.
NEM and AEM will likely cut their dividends soon, they’ll need to save money so they can buy some of these properties in the impending fire sales.
Right, consolidation, bankruptcy is fine.
Probably further than you can possibly believe. I’ve cut my exposure to just the dividend paying stocks and will expand it when there is some clear turn around. I just cant see a bottom at the moment.
Nigel………….. how is your “gin” doing in the red , white, and blue…………… (hope this is directed to the right person)
Hi Jerry, not me re the gin, not allowed spirits anymore unfortunately, well not apart from birthdays, Christmas and a few days in-between!
Thanks for the reply……. Nigel………
a few years ago, we had Nigel Farage communicating on the Ker…..
therefore the mistake……..
$1615 in September might have been the bottom
Or maybe we see $1550
Gold, Silver and HUI should all have seen the bottom until end of October
Thomas – Thanks for sharing that piece from Don D. It was a nice summary of different market sectors, PM prices and projections, and the global macroeconomic backdrop. He offered how he sees things developing moving forward, and it seemed well-reasoned.
Usd has an attempt to now make a run for $1.18 and we are deeply oversold on that merit.. when she tops it will drop for a minimum of two/3 months. Sentiment can’t be any worse then it is now. Possibly historical for the miners. Cot was looking great in fact very good for the commercial king side. It’s just the wait game.
Like the saying goes markets can stay bearish longer then many can stay liquid.
If, you are close to retirement age ……….. is one thing……. Then if , you are close to 80,…. is another thing… 🙂
Ditto on the retirement Jerry!
Have a great weekend 😀💪
Glen………. You also, have a GREAT ONE………….. 🙂
Eventually………………. It will bottom…………. always does……..
good article at zerohedge on gold and Russian conflict….
The Elites (Shad and Cory) are partying it up at The New Orleans Investment Conference, which is over today. That must be one big party followed by one big hangover! LOL! I know, you guys only had time for work! I see that Jim Grant is one of many keynote speakers. It would be great if you could line him up for an interview, I can just imagine his sense of humor as he discusses the condition of the financial world today. DT
Hi DT. Just getting ready to check out of my room. We worked the conference, networked, saw many friends of the show, made some new friends, talked to a ton of companies, partied it up, and I even found time to head across the street to the casino and hit 6 jackpots on the slots which paid for the trip many times over. My favorite presentation was George Gammon’s. Good times!
Sounds like plenty of fun and thanks for sharing! Anytime you get to the casino, “My favourite roulette” it’s a positive. The mind needs to go forward and having fun when it matters is an must amigo!
Curious to know how many attended and the overall bullishness to Bearishness sentiment. Any of these conferences and investment outings seem to mark the bottom well major bottoms of the miners from cycles.
I know you have posted on many of occasions The miners that you hold and the miners that you like.
I was thinking out loud to revise the top 20 maybe 10 and 10 gold miners and silver miners that are very liquid have cash on hand and very low debt that if you Matthew and many others in here can give a list it would greatly be appreciated I’ve got a bit of extra cash and I would really like to put that money to work.
I’m very aggressive so I’m not really looking for the dividend or large cap of the worlds.
Hey there Glenfidish. Yes, it was nice to mix in a bit of entertainment along with the information overload. Yes, I played a little roulette.
As for the sentiment at the show, it wasn’t bullish, but more neutral, with muted short-term bearishness through year-end, including tax loss selling, and then more optimistic for the Q1 run in 2023.
As for a list of companies that is tough because everyone has different criteria, and there are good companies folks may like that I don’t own.
I’m about to takeoff in the airplane and fly for 7 hours…. and then rest when I get back home, but I’ll post a list of my top holdings tomorrow.
High speed train from Guangzhou to Beijing which is about half the distance NO to Seattle, takes about the same time. Very comfortable, 120USD one way.
In full transparency, as of Sunday night 10/16/2022, here are my top holdings in order of their portfolio weighting. Keep in mind I’m a very active trader and adding to or reducing down positions all the time so this list is constantly in flux and companies move up and down this batting order all the time.
This portfolio looks entirely different than it did just 18 months ago. Since the end of the 2021 through the summer of 2022 I greatly reduced down the number of stocks in my portfolio (cutting close to 40 stocks out of it to get a bit more defensive in the Precious Metals with more producers and royalty companies, reducing down or selling out of most of my Base Metals companies (in Copper, Nickel, Platinum/Palladium, Zinc/Lead, and Specialty Metals), selling out of all my Lithium companies, and keeping my Uranium stocks to 7 (down from 10-12). I still like the companies/projects/teams of a lot of those companies I shed, and many I hope to buy back into at one point, or if they correct further.
I am most heavily weighted to the growth oriented Gold & Silver mid-tier and smaller producers and royalty companies, then developers, and a few explorers (I blew out the vast majority of my explorers over the last year or two). Obviously the explorers are the ones with the most potential to outperform, and the producers and royalty companies will, in general, not have the same explosive potential but are a bit more defensive in nature. There are exceptions with producers that move with the torque of junior drill plays, and the sector is so smashed down now, that most can still be multi-baggers from current valuation levels.
I should also state that there are about another 100-150 companies that I like and either used to own over the last few years, or have considered owning, and many of those may actually be better for people with more speculative palates. This is just where I have my money allocated at present after a wild last few years.
Calibre Mining Corp
Impact Silver Corp
Energy Fuels Inc
Karora Resources Inc
Silvercorp Metals Inc
Coeur Mining Inc
Santacruz Silver Mining
Sandstorm Gold Ltd
Jaguar Mining Inc
Vizsla Silver Corp
I-80 Gold Corp
Minera Alamos Inc
Metalla Royalty & Streaming
Mako Mining Corp
Silvercrest Metals Inc
Silver Tiger Metals Inc
Lion One Metals Ltd
Hecla Mining Com
Gatos Silver Inc
Dollly Varden Silver Corp
Uranium Energy Corp
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc
Discovery Silver Corp
Superior Gold Inc (I’m probably going to take this as a tax loss, then buy back after 30 days)
Denison Mines Corp
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Encore Energy Corp
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd
Americas Gold & Silver Corp
Atico Mining Corp
Amex Exploration Inc
Uranium Royalty Corp
Nexgen Energy Ltd
Orezone Gold Corp
Skeena Resources Company
Guanajuato Silver Comp
Steppe Gold Ltd
Thor Explorations Comp
Liberty Gold Corp
Integra Resources Corp
Sylvania Platinum Ltd
Endeavour Silver Corp
Summa Silver Corp
Scottie Resources Corp
Pure Gold Mining Inc
Blackrock Silver Corp
Wallbridge Mining Comp
Montage Gold Corp
Elevation Gold Mining Corp
Again, it is odd for me to review this list and see just 51 company positions, when just 18 months ago I had 92 company positions. There are many names that have been staples in my portfolio for years that I’m not currently positioned in, but as the bull market starts to unfold, I’ll likely reduce down my more concentrated positions in producers and royalty companies and starting going back further down the risk profile into more explorers, and then 1-2 years off likely rotate back into more base metals and battery metals stocks. Also, I’m keen to get back into a number of the oil & nat gas stocks I was in at different points but currently don’t have those positions on either.
I’ll likely be adding both EMX Royalty Corp and Avino Silver and Gold Mines early this week… possibly even on Monday.
As an update to the post above — I did end up selling off Superior Gold today for a tax loss, and opening up new positions in Defiance Silver, EMX Royalty, and Avino Silver & Gold.
Thanks for posting your stocks. One good deed deserves another (or at least amusing entertainment). Here is my “weighted order” and like you, can’t guarantee they will be there tomorrow:
Nine Mile Metals
Hi there Lakedweller 2, and thanks for sharing your weighted portfolio, and I’ll be digging through some of the ones I don’t currently hold, but am familiar with most of them on a basic level, and have owned a few of them in the past (some even quite recently).
> It looks like we overlap in our holdings on these stocks: I-80 Gold, Stillwater Critical, Vizsla Silver, Lion One, Dolly Varden, Calibre, Summa Silver, Santacruz (a good looking group of companies indeed).
I need to give you a non-silver roll of quarters before you go to another conference. I won’t need to talk about Junior Miners or The Fed again.
Haha! I told Cory I’m doing much better in the casino than in the junior mining casino this week.
If wealthy, at least a quarter of my portfolio would now comprise top quality (extremely low bankruptcy risk) PM and related commodity securities. Why? The unknown!
A breathtaking non-linear break in Dollar value could occur at any time. Whether immediately apparent in measures like the Dollar Index is questionable. These things can be gerrymandered to obscure reality, but such truth cannot be blocked for long.
Possible driver? The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party next week. Major policy changes may be forthcoming.
Nine paragraphs of Marc Chandler’s October 15th report are devoted to it:
“China will be center stage. The long-anticipated 20th National Congress will be held. President Xi’s break from Deng Xiaoping’s political and economic reforms will be advanced as he lays the groundwork for a third five-year term. Those reforms included term limits and the rotation from princelings (whose fathers were part of the 1949 revolution) and the Communist Youth League (an avenue for less connected but ambitious people). …”
A new Mao – a new revolution?
Western speculation believes that the event could signify a triumph for Xi as he will most likely remain at the helm of the party for a third term. Should that happen, it would go against the tradition which has formed in Chinese politics over the last 30 years. Up to now, the reins of power in the country were handed over to a new generation of leaders at the end of the second term. Thus, such a move would herald a new era in the history of modern China.
Starting from 2018, it has become increasingly clear that Xi is going to defy this tradition. That year, amendments were made to the Chinese Constitution lifting the two-term limit on the presidency.
“For the world at large, the important thing is not whether Xi Jinping is going to stay for another term. Most of the world’s countries don’t really care who is in charge in China. What is important is the kind of policies China is going to pursue in the future, and how stable the country is going to be,” [Aleksandr Lomanov, Russian Academy of Sciences] explained.
In better times he would have been dumped, since he has proven to be dumb as dogs–t in so many areas. There just wasn’t anybody better around and this is not the time for a leadership change.
Opening: 20th Congress (Xi begins at 08:00)
Another possible driver: Russia-Turkey Alliance
NOPEC Bill Would Mean The End Of Aramco And OPEC As We Know Them
* OPEC+ decision to cut output by 2 million bpd has sparked angers in the White House.
* Bipartisan senators are once again floating the idea of a NOPEC bill.
* Anti-trust legislation of the U.S. and U.K. can point to Aramco as being collusive in price-fixing through adjusting output to manage oil prices.
Two good interviews on http://www.kingworldnews.com
concerning the “real economy”:
Worth a listen to both after you have listened to the K Report.
Remember Dr. Strangelove; or, How I stopped worrying and Love the Bomb. (Columbia, 1963) This science fiction film is one of the classics of all time and was made almost sixty years ago. The film tells the story of how easily Armageddon could come about. Black comedy at it’s finest, or is it?
In Dr. Strangelove, The Russian Premier, Pistoff, tells President Muffley that Russia has recently installed a Doomsday Machine, which will automatically set off all the atom bombs in the world if The Soviet Union is attacked. The bomb is dropped, Slim Pickens riding it down all the way, ordered by the rogue General Jack D. Ripper! Mankind comes to an inglorious end. DT
Dr. Strangelove is with Uncle Joe…
Ha! Ha! Good one Eddy. LOL! DT
That’s from the great William over at Zero Hedge.
Wargames from 1983 is my favorite
Agreed. Winner: None.
FREAKY FRIDAY FOLLOW UP…………………
Credit Suisse bankers are great at winning a coin flips…Heads I Win – Tails You LOSE!
That’s exactly what they have done with $200B+ in derivative bets that are imploding as we speak. The US Federal Reserve just sent the Swiss National Bank $6.2B to cover Credit Suisse derivative losses.
These derivative bankers already got their bonuses and now the US TAXPAYER is on the hook for their losses Soon they will come, hat in hand, for the whole $200B and with a long line of systemic derivative banks right behind them…THIS IS INSANE!!
These criminals should go on trial…and face a life sentence of hard labor or much worse. Of course, they will just continue to rob us again…over and over.
The Federal Reserve has to send them money, the whole financial system is intertwined, if Credit Suisse goes down The US will start seeing banking failures. DT
One of the reasons not to have a CENTRAL BANK…………..
Each country should be on it’s own…….
Fake money printing……. putting everyone in BONDAGE for a few.
No Kidding, the politicians that are elected should serve their constituents, similarly a country’s best interests should be served first over international considerations. Globalism is such a dumb idea because it only serves the few who are at the top. DT
DT, I haven’t made a list of all the benefits I’ve had from globalism but I’m sure it would be long.
Okay Terry, I’ll bite, give us just your top ten benefits from Globalism. DT
Fruit….mangoes, papayas, kiwi…
As a kid growing up in 1950’s we had oranges and apples. Now I wouldn’t eat either of those.
I probably mis-addressed a post:
So… two good interviews on
Alasdair Macleod and Michael Oliver Oct 14th interviews.
New article by Matthew Piepenburg also on King News.
Silver could make a new low but I doubt it will go much below 16.75 if it does. Once it takes back the 600 week MA (which stopped its rise 2 weeks ago) it will make quick work of the falling 100 week MA (“quick” is of course relative to the weekly chart).
Quick work of the 100 WMA? I seriously doubt it. I give it about a 1% chance that it gets through the 100 WMA on the first try without dropping back below it within a few weeks.
Until the 100 WMA is extremely close to the 200 WMA or actually below it, silver isn’t going anywhere.
Your 1% guess is way off and there’s no good reason to assume that the 100 must go near the 200.
Thanks a bunch for the full disclosure regarding your personal holdings. It’s been noted. I will spend this next week checking out which of those has lowest debt and cash on hand.. then begin to look at there growth profile for the next 2/3 years 🙂
10-4 good buddy. I’d love to hear back on which companies you think look most attractive.
Thanks for the question to Ex and Ex, Thanks for posting your list. I put mine up after yours. I would ask you to trade but then you would have to break my tongue.
Haha! Good one Lakedweller2 and thanks for sharing your weighted portfolio up above as well.
I responded back with regards to our overlapping positions. May they be prosperous trades!
Good Stuff !!………………..Dana’s perspective on where this BEAR market is going, based on experience is very insightful, as it also correlates with others who have thoroughly analyzed the bears of the past !
David Rosenberg recently outlined his “BEAR” trajectory, based on when he feels the FED will pause…………..end of Q2 2023 or Q3…………is his take. Back in 2008, the FED also paused after a few years of tightening to about 5.5 %……………..the market however bottomed in late 2009. The Paul Volcker market bottomed in August of 1982…………….while the FED paused a year earlier……………….seems there is always a lag as the BEAR’S momentum takes a while to dissipate even on pausing
When Volcker took over in 1979…………….CPI was 5.9 and headline inflation was 9%……………….history never completely repeats………….but in this case it kind of rhymes a lot with history !
The Bear seems to just be sharpening it’s claws !!!!
Should history repeat itself then Black Monday might occur on Tuesday
Pre-construction condo flippers in Toronto are saying they have never seen this market so soft. The buyers aren’t showing up, that makes The Flippers Big Time Bagholders. This is just the beginning, the real estate market is now in a downward correction that won’t bottom out for 8 or 9 years.
The next Bagholders will be mortgage holders owing hundreds of thousands and millions on over inflated real estate. Now you are on the hook because you can’t declare bankruptcy and walk away from mortgage debt. The Pendulum is swinging to the downside, and it will be as hard to stop as it was on the upswing. This will be a crash for the books! DT
Tiff Macklem The Governor of The Bank of Canada say’s “He’s not backing down on raising interest rates, this is not the time to be flexible on rates.” Time will tell, Canada always follows The US lead, but this time they started raising rates before The Federal Reserve. DT
Thomas Sowell vs the Dope:
Fed Defending Dollar No Matter What Crashes — Catherine Austin Fits
China’s Semiconductor Industry ‘Decapitated Overnight’: What ‘Annihilation Looks Like’
Thanks for the update. Just mentioned by Bloomberg. Awaiting Joel’s commentary!
Wow! That is a crazy development between the US and China with regards to Semi-Conductors.
We’ll have Joel on from Benzinga on Tuesday and will ask him to opine on this development, and check with other generalists to see if they have any thoughts on what this may mean for this sector.
Ditto………. New wake up call…….. 🙂
Biden poking the panda.
Yep. This may in turn cause Xi Jinping to escalate the Panda’s plans with regards to Taiwan, as it represents something like 85% of semi-conductor manufacturing in Asia. This move could escalate the Chinese retaking over Taiwan and their manufacturing, and that was clear in the recent speech Xi gave.
This will likely backfire for the USA in much the same way that NATO provoking Putin to invade Ukraine by trying to get them into NATO, and then putting on sanctions and kicking them out of the SWIFT banking system, has only boomeranged back to hurt the West far more than Russia, and escalated the desire to form a new SDR currency with other nations, sick of the US abusing it’s Dollar world reserve currency status.
On Taiwan, Xi Jinping warns against international ‘interference.’
Damien Cave and Amy Chang Chien – 10/16/2022
The US is headed towards isolation. The tide of events are turning away from America. Human nature the world over is seeing America for what it is, one war after another. The citizens of the world are fed up, they want peace and prosperity, not division and rancor.
America is playing a lone hand. They no longer negotiate they only dictate. If you don’t understand the meaning of trust and human contact, you are already defeated. DT
Yes, unfortunately the US foreign policy has been whacked out for decades now, and it all plays into the globalist neocons prerogatives; but just remember that most Americans have zero interest in these policies or conflicts. Just like most Russians and most Chinese have zero interest in their aggressions, crimes against humanity, and global sabre rattlings.
The vast majority of people in all nations just love their families and local communities, and want a reasonable to good quality of life of opportunity and without all the conflict. It’s important to keep one’s ire focused on the ding dong politicians, and not the actual people in any country being bamboozled by their supposed representative “leaders.”
Worst Market In A Century
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (10/15/2022)
This is worthwhile:
Defiance, DEF, getting clobbered today on good volume. On sale or rolling over?
Yeah, I don’t see any news out from Defiance today to account for the – 15% selloff, but that is one I don’t currently own, (but have in the past) that I’m strongly considering getting back in. Now with the further smash down it is looking that much more attractive.
I may just take the hit for tax loss purposes on Superior Gold (who also was royally thrashed recently on their news of firing their mining contractor, adjusting annual guidance, and doing a capital raise to bridge the area until starting back up production again), and use the proceeds to buy some Defiance down here. Then after the 30 day wash sale I intend to get back into SGI as I still believe they’ll start getting their ship turned around in 2023, but they’ve lost investor confidence in the near-term and have had a series of challenges in 2022 as a current ugly duckling stock.
I rotated some $ and almost doubled my position in DEF.
I just picked up a new position in Defiance up this morning. I was in it the last few years, and even earlier this year, but had jettisoned it for tax loss purposes earlier in the year. Now I just jettisoned Superior Gold and rotated much of that and some other dry powder into Defiance, EMX Royalty, and Avino Silver & Gold this morning.
……. and now we have the developments of FREAKY FRIDAY………
China chips……. and citizenship…………. never know what the heck a long weekend holds… lol
and Wooden Ships … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q3j-i7GLr0
lol……… rock on………. 🙂
Added Tectonic Metals this morning.
Glenfidish – if you see this I did go back and post my current portfolio holdings in order of their weighting up above late yesterday.
I just seen it! Your a true gentlemen :).. Thanks a bunch and hope many other viewers noticed it as well. There are plenty of heavy weights there.
Momentum bottomed in July:
Credit Suisse pays $495M tied to mortgage-backed securities
By: Michelle Chapman – AP Business Writer – October 17, 2022
“Credit Suisse has agreed to pay $495 million as part of a settlement with the U.S. over a years long dispute tied to mortgage-backed securities, an investment vehicle that played a central role in the 2008 financial crisis.”
The Uber Bull Case For Gold
Goldfinger – Oct 17, 2022 #VIDEO
“While everyone is pretty negative on everything right now, I make my best attempt to lay out a very bullish scenario for gold that could play out over the next 12-18 months.” – Goldfinger
(MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos releases strong Cerro de Oro PEA
Caesar’s Report – October 12, 2022
Shocked I say, shocked.
Opened up positive. Capped, And…slowly creeping toward even. Some up …some down.
Yep, mixed bag today, but my portfolio has been up 3%-4% most of the day. Still an hour before the close, so anything can happen, but it looks to a be a Green Day.
Green Day – Good Riddance (Time Of Your Life)
I think another aspect that is helping the cause today is that most of the Uranium stocks are up nicely.
Trend Strength: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
Critical NatGas Support Level Broken.
Strong PM Turn, But Must Hold.
Michael Boutros (Gold 39:00) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRwNBreU6io
liz Truss is out and Boris Johnson is back again : i liked him he is a character . The sudden fall in the B pound which also caused the spike in brit interest rates made intervention by liz ness. but also led her to drop her partys tax cut ideas for now. So be it . everyone worold wide sufffers from Putin induced inflation . PUTIN AND TRUMP CO CREATED THIS MESS to some degree. I just donated to mark hammels idea dronearmy for ukraine 500 dollars . i am also donating 40 per month to world central kitchen feeding hungry people in ukraine . Trump now seems to turn against Ukraine as do some ignorant REPUBS . I hate war , but we must destroy PUTINISM AND ALL HIS ALLIES . PRAY FOR PEACE RSH
Everything in red in the PM stocks
ELVT is now valued $11.5 million, half of the financing they have done in March
AR is now below $300 million, after the $445 million financing (credit + equity)
It’s already the worst sell off I have seen. How far will it still go?