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Welcome!

Weekend Show – Rick Bensignor, Dana Lyons and Mike Larson – Generalist Outlooks For Markets, Metals, Energy and Currencies

Cory
January 21, 2023

Welcome to The Weekend Edition of The KE Report! This Weekend’s Show we feature a group of generalist fund mangers and newsletter writers. This gives us a balanced view on the markets.

 

Everything (outside of the US Dollar) has been going up for the last 3+ months. The markets showed some weakness mid-week but investors are maintaining a bullish outlook. We breakdown what this means for short and long term investors.

 

Please keep in touch with Shad and I through email! I will be at a number of the conferences in Vancouver over the next two weeks. If you are in Vancouver and want to meet up please emails me! If you cannot attend the conferences but would like me to talk to any companies you like please let me know and I’ll be sure to swing by their booth. Our email addresses are Shad@kereport.com and Fleck@kereport.com

 

 

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week

 

 

 


Rick Bensignor
Dana Lyons
Mike Larson
Discussion
69 Comments
    BDC
    Jan 21, 2023 21:15 AM

    KER ‘Hat Trick’ — Thank you!

    Reply
      BDC
      Jan 21, 2023 21:59 AM

      KOLD: https://postimg.cc/XpR33bTc
      NatGas Short. 2023 Double.

      Reply
      Jan 21, 2023 21:36 AM

      +3. The Hat-trick.

      Thanks to all the KE Report guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Rick, Dana, and Mike.

      Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast and radio show, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, sharing insights with our community.

      Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:39 AM

    What a lineup! Can’t wait to listen

    Reply
      Jan 21, 2023 21:37 AM

      Some good macro thoughts from Rick, Dana, and Mike for sure! Thanks for listening to the show Ryan.

      Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:59 AM

    It’s gunning for that gap fill. Lots of upside for silver stocks, daily not even showing overbought yet.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p91398532542&a=1334667121&r=1674316608336&cmd=print

    Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:07 AM

    Healthcare is another sector in slow recovery mode after double bottom last yr.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBI&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p67155622057&a=1334672445&r=1674317138020&cmd=print

    Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:24 AM

    Great show! Thanks KER!

    Reply
      Jan 21, 2023 21:38 AM

      Much appreciated Charles.

      We are blessed to have such great lineup of sharp guys sharing their insights with us hear with the KER crew.

      Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:01 AM

    The price of molybdenum has increased dramatically this year in 2023, this month alone the metal is up 58.06% which is quite an increase. The opening of China’s economy has spurred the price of molybdenum as it is used as an alloy in stainless steel, cast iron and super alloys. Chile and Peru are the 3rd and 4th exporters of the metal so problems concerning their loss of production could be an influencing factor. All in all, molybdenum might become a metal on investors radar. DT

    Reply
      Jan 21, 2023 21:43 AM

      DT – Good point on the rise in many critical minerals, like molybdenum. I hadn’t really noticed that until Doc Jones mentioned that earlier in the week during his interview on the theme of critical minerals.

      People are so conditioned and accustomed to commodities prices being historically low versus everything else. When they wake up to the reality of how much raw materials are going to keep escalating in price to keep up with inflationary price pressures and just more a return to the mean, then they’ll have missed the opportunity to position when “buying low” was a thing. 🙂

      Reply
        Jan 21, 2023 21:46 PM

        Hi Ex, quite a few precious metal companies have had a nice re-rating higher since the beginning of this new year. I have been working on my DD and it takes me from company to company and so on. I always check out their share prices and I have noticed a lot have been trending higher than I thought. I know my portfolio is going up, but I didn’t think that a lot of companies in the resource sector were showing “NICE” increases. I only like to use the word nice when I see a pretty brunette or a stock gain. LOL! DT

        Reply
          Jan 21, 2023 21:25 PM

          “Nice” post DT! 😉

          Yeah, agreed, there have already been some very nice re-ratings starting in a number of precious metals and even base metals stocks since Q4 of last year, (most of them off lows marked in September).

          It has been encouraging to see a number of companies (and my trading account portfolio balance) clawing it’s way higher once again over the last few months.

          Personally, I was aggressively deploying the rest of my dry powder in July, then trimmed a bit of the rally gains in August, then redeployed those funds back into mostly PM stocks in September/October.

          So my strategy was to get positioned for 2023 earlier than I typically would, because of the thesis that most of the tax loss selling was occurring in the summer and early fall. I mentioned to a number of folks we bring on the show, both off-mic and on-mic, that I felt most of the tax loss selling was already over for the year far before the holidays, and that those expecting some big waterfall decline into year end were likely playing it wrong.

          As a result, I didn’t do as much trading in later Oct/Nov/Dec as typical, and actually sold some of the bigger gainers in early December to take the gains and wash them out against other losses for the year for tax neutralization purposes. (I did get repositioned in those stocks again in early January with some initial tranches, starting up a new cost basis in those, and will add more to them on any pullbacks from here).

          Bottom line: Since most of the lows in the mining stocks were in either July or September, my strategy and messaging on deploying my remaining cash and dry powder then, (when many were boasting about shoring up record amounts of cash during those periods) was the right assessment of the set up.

          November & December are the typical tax loss selling season, and as postulated, they were not dire sell offs where the miners were ground to a fine dust…. but instead a period of rip-roaring higher prices across the sector in most of the more widely followed quality mid-tiers, and juniors.

          Those that didn’t buy into the weakness from July through September, at the clearly comical valuations we were seeing in the PM mining stocks, months before traditional tax loss selling, missed a great opportunity for easy appreciations of double-digits or triple-digit gains in many stocks. Instead, what we saw posted on here, or heard from some of show guests, and what we saw on many other sector forums were retail investors that were cowering in cash instead of deploying their cash…. or worse, some of the more vocal contrarian indicators were selling to go to cash in (Sept/Oct). They chose very poorly.

          Just like always, most investors abhor buying low, and few have the discipline to sell high. Instead most investors like to buy high, and cry low. Some things never change…

          Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:26 AM

    Must listen (if it works):

    https://youtu.be/KuNm8Ij5V3k

    It works for me and the video talks about the massive fraud by Wall Street in the markets.

    Reply
      BDC
      Jan 21, 2023 21:40 PM

      Wes Christian brings up the Depository Trust Company. Yes, it is private. Nearly all security trading is registered there or its associated DTCC (Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation) whether or not on a regulated exchange.

      Thanks for the link! [Continuing to listen now.]

      Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:12 AM

    Second attempt at posting. It was here but it might disappear because of taking you to youtube.
    Must listen if it stays here and opens.

    https://youtu.be/KuNm8Ij5V3k

    All about criminals and your property.

    Reply
      Jan 21, 2023 21:47 AM

      I just checked in the back office moderation cue, and released that message Lakedweller2.

      It’s the same link, but since it got held up for a bit, the double post gives folks 2 opportunities to click on it.

      Cheers!

      Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:43 PM

    Silver has been very strong but it still wouldn’t surprise me if it soon takes a quick 4 or 5 percent dip to set a bear trap.
    SLV:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p82761076258&a=1230908007

    Reply
      Jan 21, 2023 21:08 PM

      Matthew, I’m also operating on that assumption or “hope” silver to correct here to purchase some more mid-tier silver stocks. I’m sure there are others like me in the same camp.

      Reply
        Jan 21, 2023 21:36 PM

        I sold quite a bit of Hecla yesterday but will buy back aggressively on weakness. There seems to be a good chance that any dip in silver/the sector will be sharp and short in duration. It would be a scary buy because it’s easy to see how silver could fall for days or even weeks from here. Non traders should hold what they have and buy more on weakness in my opinion. My selling is based on the short term which most should ignore.
        Silver has been up against resistance for the last 6 weeks. Compare that to the single spike in March:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p69619581039&a=638471406

        Reply
        Jan 21, 2023 21:03 PM

        Bull markets are very good at leaving most people behind, both retail and pro. A bull market is much more than a simple uptrend. True bulls come with all the short to long term charts being in bullish alignment which is where a bull gets its power. Larger and longer term technical/fundamental considerations routinely override smaller and shorter term ones during a bull market which is why so many never see fit to buy and sellers of strength sell way too much way too early. The vast majority are best served by holding their positions for months following the start of a new bull market.
        The big percentage move so far has tricked a lot of people into thinking this move is older than it really is. The reality is that it is very early and the move so far has merely taken silver and friends up to the ground floor which is why I think there is far more nearby support than most realize.
        Markets can work off excesses by falling or chopping sideways long enough and silver has done the latter so far (at 6 weeks in a 6-7 percent range).
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90034469607&a=822853857

        Reply
      Jan 21, 2023 21:53 PM

      Hi CaliJoe. Yeah, this topic of disappointed First Majestic performance was trending on Steve Penny’s blog yesterday. Some people were being overly critical of the silver miners, by emphasizing the underperformance of (AG) and extrapolating it out like it was the experience of all silver miners, which is simply not the case.

      I had replied with a few brief posts and charts that illustrate why First Majestic has not been a good bellwether for the sector as of late.

      ______________________________________________________________________

      > I don’t personally own First Majestic, because I felt other silver stocks would fair better and have more torque.

      Here is a candleglance performance chart of the last 2 months showing First Majestic, and then 7 other silver producers I track closely (and have 6 of them in my portfolio). Note that AG is not representative of the group and has been a laggard.

      https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AG,SVM,GATO,ASM,PAAS,HL,CDE,EXK|B|null

      Reply
        Jan 21, 2023 21:53 PM

        Here’s a candleglance chart of (AG) First Majestic, versus the 2 main Silver Miners ETFs (SIL) and (SILJ). It’s pretty clear that AG has been the anomaly here, not the silver stocks overall, which have moved higher with metals prices as a general trend.

        https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AG,SIL,SILJ|B|null

        Reply
        Jan 21, 2023 21:04 PM

        Thanks Shad. I hold AG and not selling as rising tide lifts everything .. eventually. I’m watching lower trend line
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=M&yr=20&mn=3&dy=0&id=p32007362803&a=1334794472&r=1674338357062&cmd=print

        Reply
          Jan 21, 2023 21:32 PM

          Good call CaliJoe, and good point on it respecting that lower trend-line. Eventually, First Majestic will break out and play catch up to the rest of the space, and as a more liquid stock on the big board exchanges, when other investors see that, it may turn into a good momentum trade. Actually it has a more compelling set up now because it hasn’t moved as much as other stocks have in the last few months rally.

          I just figured they’d have a few challenges holding them back (still working out tax issues with Mexico, labor issues and local pushback in Mexico, a few operational challenges at Jerritt Canyon to work through, etc…) However, if they can get all their pistons firing together in 2023, they still could make a solid comeback and move much higher.

          The point I was trying to get across to the SilverChartist blog folks, when they were bemoaning the performance of First Majestic as their primary exposure to the silver stocks, was that it is always dangerous to extrapolate out the moves of just one company, to the whole sector. Clearly AG did not move like the rest of the sector over the last few months.

          It is also the danger in having an overly concentrated position in just 1 or 2 mining stocks. As most know, mining is a tough business, and there are all kinds of problems that can befall even well-run companies, so it is best to have a basket of stocks and build one’s own diversified ETF. (diversified by jurisdiction, stage of mining, and on best in class and also best of the worst for the optionality factor).

          There were a few different people commenting on that S.C. blog that they only had First Majestic for their exposure to silver producers, or AG and one other stock. That is a very risky position to take in one’s portfolio (more risky than many of them likely realize), because it leaves all performance to just 1 or 2 companies and management teams. Chit happens… and it sucks to see a nice sector move and then see the one stock or one of the only stocks one holds not participating (like what we just saw the last few months in AG).

          I’m always amazed, during turns off the bottom in the PM sector, that more investors are not loading up on a basket of the mid-tier and smaller producers, and larger developers, as they are going to be the sure movers in any new uptrend, able to monetize or show better economics on the improving metals prices. With a basket approach, people can still weight some heavier than others, or take a balance approach, and trim back the gains in the bigger winners to then deploy into the smaller juniors for the next phase of the bull market, as it develops.

          Not surprisingly, most of the biggest griping we’ve seen the last few months, are from folks positioned in very early stage PM explorers that haven’t really moved much, or worse that moved down, when the rest of the sector was ripping. Those companies don’t have proven ounces in the ground yet, so there is nothing worse than being in a silver or gold bull market move, and holding a company that doesn’t actually have any defined silver or gold yet.

          If people want to use one ticker to track the silver mining stocks, or just hold one position, then they’d be far better served just to use SILJ as their proxy. It’s a well-diversified basked of silver stocks and a much better representation of how the sector overall is performing.

          Reply
            Jan 22, 2023 22:25 AM

            Hi Ex, in regards to your post, you nailed it with how to build a diversified ETF. (diversified by jurisdiction, stage of mining, and on best in class, and also best of the worst for the optionality factor). That is a balanced portfolio. Well said, your mind is firing on all cylinders. DT

            Jan 22, 2023 22:19 AM

            Much appreciated DT.

            Yeah, the diversified #BuildYourOwnETF is agood way to go. Cheers!

    Jan 21, 2023 21:38 PM

    2023 Silver Price Predictions, Trends, & 5-Year Forecast

    Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com

    “Where is the silver price headed in 2023? And where is it headed over the next 5 years? I’ve compiled silver price predictions from numerous analysts, both inside and outside the precious metals industry. I’ll share those with you, then look at the three primary factors to predict its price, and finally my predictions for 2023 and the next five years…”

    https://goldsilver.com/blog/silver-price-forecast-predictions/

    Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:12 PM
    Jan 21, 2023 21:22 PM
    Jan 21, 2023 21:07 PM

    I won’t be surprised if the Golden Cross Gold Miners Index goes to 100 and stays there for months.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21GCIGDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86880927494&a=1308026809

    Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:30 PM

    Junior Gold Stocks are Poised to Outperform in 2023

    David Erfle – Friday January 20, 2023

    “With the rally in gold prices over the past two months having defied analyst expectations for continued weakness, precious metals remain under-owned and out of favor despite their strong relative and absolute performance into 2023.”

    “Since a monthly triple-bottom took place in November, I related in this space last week that the gold price continuing its climb has been mostly due to several eastern nations having recently begun to diversify their foreign reserves into physical bullion.”

    “After a significant 7-year bottom was reached late last year, the mining sector is experiencing an impulsive rally with multi-day to multi-week sideways price congestions. Since bottoming last fall, both GDX and GDXJ have had two such pullback/consolidations, between 5 to 8%, and are currently experiencing a third.”

    “The GDXJ closed above formerly strong resistance at $37 to begin 2023, which is a level that has become important support and 8% below the recent peak at $40.55. With the sector now overbought, this is a good time to accumulate long-term holdings in quality juniors on weakness. Many quality junior gold stocks have been popping higher one by one from 4 to 6-month basing patterns since late Q4.”

    https://mailchi.mp/72bdb03ece3e/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1601593

    Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:33 PM

    SLV hasn’t even tested KAMA support since November and those narrowed Bollinger bands are storing some energy…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43113483927&a=1334825759

    Reply
    BDC
    Jan 21, 2023 21:59 PM

    Rick Bensignor’s comment on subdued PM stock prices, considering Gold’s strength, reveals a problem for traders: there is no usable Gold 3x Long/Short duo.

    Pro Shares has UGL/GLL at 2x. These are unpopular because there is no real bang there (conservative GDX does nearly as well). Their thinking may be influenced by past experiences with similar 3x PM Mining ETFs. These were rightfully backed off to 2x.

    Unfortunately, the stability of commodities, relative to stocks, was not taken into account.

    Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:16 PM

    This MIGHT be of use to SOME on here…… Wallstsilver .. Rick Rule.

    https://youtu.be/Jcgo0wNvcNA

    Reply
      BDC
      Jan 21, 2023 21:20 PM

      Of all Heavy Metals, Lead is the most effective.

      Reply
      Jan 22, 2023 22:00 AM

      Hi IT, RR, is always worth a listen, I have a silver stock that just doubled last week. By the way do you have any old Roman silver coins, I will trade you two Newfoundland dimes for a Roman silver coin. LOL! DT

      Reply
    Jan 21, 2023 21:44 PM

    A while back, there was chatter here about CCOOF, Core Assets. Just took a starter position, since it’s going for cheap. Is this good price to accumulate?

    Reply
    Jan 22, 2023 22:32 AM

    Having gone through many PM Bull Markets (and the following may not be totally exaggerating), is that many happen in retrospect and many last just a few weeks. That could be why there is emphasis on being in early.

    Add to that the level of miners like royalties, majors, mid-tiers, Juniors, Juniors that are actually in ETFs or Index Funds and those wandering in the wilderness without managed money backing. The term “bull market” becomes a relative term. When markets are intervened in across-the-board, then the definition of terms become relative.
    I have positioned myself for a “good old bull market”. That term has been removed from the “Book of Investments” when Wall Street bought their first server. (food for thought)

    Reply
      Jan 22, 2023 22:37 PM

      Good points Lakedweller2 on noting the action in PM mining stocks held inside the ETFs and those outside of those funds that can move more sporadically (or sometimes not move on low volume). I like having a healthy blend of both types 1) the liquid stocks inside the ETFs, and the 2) lone ranger stocks with less managed money following them, that can move more independently of the daily herd.

      Reply
    Jan 22, 2023 22:56 PM

    For the first time in 17 years the XAU’s 40 month MA has crossed above its 200 month MA. Nothing to see here folks! Move along!
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=M&yr=19&mn=0&dy=0&id=t3595227949c&a=1335157963&r=1674431581086&cmd=print

    Reply
    Jan 22, 2023 22:13 PM

    Fabulous week of guests gents. Much appreciated..

    Nice timely interview with Brixton…. sounds like there will be no news flow from them til the spring or summer.

    Are we due for an interview with osisko metals next???

    Starting to get the same concern with nickel as I’ve had with PM’s. Too many agree so it’s no longer a contrarian play. Prefer the climb the wall of worry which at least the PM’s could do as many of the bulls are calling for a pullback

    Reply
      Jan 22, 2023 22:52 PM

      Gary mentioned Brixton still has a few holes from Metla to release, and some soil & geochem results.

      Reply
        Jan 23, 2023 23:55 AM

        Good to know……bad to know my listening skills are slowly deteriorating…… I blame Ker for it….too many great interviews to get through every week so I’m listening to them while trying to get something else done….

        Reply
          Jan 23, 2023 23:26 AM

          God Bless you Wolfster!

          Reply
          Jan 23, 2023 23:01 PM

          Your listening skills are deteriorating because you haven’t used them for a long time! LOL! DT

          Reply
          Jan 23, 2023 23:36 PM

          Nice Wolfster. We appreciate you listening to the show mate, and for all the good contributions over the years. There are a bunch of folks over at ceo.ca pretty excited to see a few of the Metla holes, so we’ll see how it goes when they get released to the market.

          Reply
    Jan 23, 2023 23:00 AM

    Took more profits magna.
    Added to Silver Tiger.

    Reply
      Jan 23, 2023 23:10 AM

      Also added a few Briston.

      Reply
        Jan 23, 2023 23:15 AM

        Brixton. Also added to Headwater and Defiance. That’s it …. fun over. Going to do something else.

        Reply
    Jan 23, 2023 23:10 AM

    Great article on……..”gold backed currencies”
    Conjob China….
    https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan23/petro-yuan1-23.html

    Reply

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