Jordan Roy-Byrne  –  Precious Metals Won’t Break Out Until We See General US Equities Enter A Bear Market

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review the historical evidence that suggests we won’t see precious metals break out into a new secular bull market, until we see general US equities enter a secular bear market.  He concedes that we could see a meltup rally in everything were gold gets to $2300 or $2400 in tandem with more highs in US equity markets, but it would be short-lived if we don’t see a broad market correction that sends more funds into gold, silver, and the PM stocks.  Jordan sees a good analog to our current situation being the move from the mid to late 1960’s, and then into the stagflation of the 1970s. 


We also discuss why he is most heavily positioned in the growth-oriented gold producers to capture the move first, as compared to the developers or explorers where, aside from riding up some lucky bonanza drill holes, an investor needs to precisely time when the breakout in PMs will occur for the rising tide to lift all boats.




Click here to visit The Daily Gold website and keep up to date on Jordan’s technical outlook.

    Jan 25, 2024 25:54 AM

    NatGas bottom confirmed.
    Correction expected.

      Jan 25, 2024 25:53 AM

      The Great Convergence: North American Natural Gas and the Looming Shift in Global Energy Economics

      01/19/2024 – Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates

      “North American natural gas is the cheapest energy molecule on the planet by as much as 75%. Over the next twelve months, we believe this discount could close entirely, boosting US gas prices as much as four-fold. As we go to print, Henry Hub gas costs $3.00 per mcf while European and Asian gas is $14 and $16.50 respectively. One barrel of oil contains between six and eight mmbtu, so dividing oil by the midpoint of seven generates its energy-equivalent price of $10 per mcf.”

      “Today’s discount is nothing new; North American gas has traded 60-80% below world prices for nearly a decade with good reason. The shale gas revolution tilted the North American natural gas market in structural surplus. Since 2005, the US gas supply doubled from 54 to 104 bcf/d. Conventional production fell by 56% from 50 to 22 bcf/d, while shale production ramped to over 80 bcf/d – or 80% of total supply. The United States would have faced an acute gas shortage without the shales as conventional natural gas production had declined steeply. Instead, surging shale gas production produced a prolonged (and huge) disconnect to world prices. However, our models tell us that the shales are likely plateauing and the discount to world prices will narrow quickly and most likely disappear.”

        Jan 25, 2024 25:01 AM

        Maybe not, I read an article recently where they claimed that they have just discovered a new drilling technique that will release a lot more gas condensate from old wells particularly in Canada, I wish I had saved the article but if I come across it again, I will post a link. DT

          Jan 25, 2024 25:56 AM

          Makes sense. Production is certainly advancing, whatever the source. I recently read where many new ocean vessels are being powered by NatGas. Will future production meet increasing demand for this relatively clean energy? BDC

            Jan 25, 2024 25:31 AM

            Good nuanced discussion on Nat Gat guys. We had a good chat with Josef Schachter yesterday that is going on the weekend show, and he believes in the short-term, that an increase in oil production will lead to more supply in natural gas, but that once the 4 LNG terminals go in (2 in Canada, and 2 in the US) that the domestic demand will increase quite a great deal, to be able to ship to Asia, India, Europe, and South America.

            He mentioned some companies like Tourmaline that have messaged that as a result of all the demand to ship liquid natural gas to other nations, that even the domestic pricing may jump up to $4-$7 in the next 2-3 years, and as high as $9-$10 by the end of the decade. Who knows how it will all play out, but it is interesting right?

          Jan 25, 2024 25:48 PM

          Its hard to say how much natural gas Europe will need Germany is de-industrializing fast and their manufacturers are moving many of their plants overseas, I expect America will receive the Lion’s share. As Germany goes so does Europe, Germany is the powerhouse. When they finally receive liquified natural gas the cost will be so prohibitive that it will send what industry is left reeling. Industry relies on cheap energy to compete. A Russian pipeline already ships Nat Gas to The Chinese and the rest of the countries you mentioned are not going to be competitive using liquified Nat Gas. DT

            Jan 25, 2024 25:31 PM

            Yeah, good points DT. Germany has been the poster child on exactly how to completely do everything wrong with regards to energy policies, and where their virtue signaling and “going woke caused them to go broke.” Not only did it lack on rationale and common sense, but as you say, it has now crippled their manufacturing and business sectors with skyrocketing power costs. As a result many businesses have been leaving Germany to move productive capacity to other countries that have a grip on how important maintaining lower energy costs are.

            Having said that, much of Europe is still paying $15-$20 nat gas, so for companies to sell it to the LNG terminals for $2.50-$3.50, then the freezing, storing, shipping moves it up to around $7-$8…. that leaves a pretty fat margin to sell it to Europe for double that. It’s the same thing with what Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, India, etc.. are paying for natty gas. There is a big spread, which will create demand to export out of Canada and the US, and eventually will raise domestic North American prices for Nat Gas. I don’t think Josef Schachter’s targets of $4-$7 natural gas in 2-3 years are far off at all. People picking up the gassers at valuations that have pulled back substantially should have an absolute gas in a few years.

            Jan 25, 2024 25:35 PM

            You would have to be just plain dumb if you didn’t think America didn’t want German industry. By destroying Germany’s access to cheap Russian natural gas where are the plants going to go. DT

      Jan 26, 2024 26:38 AM

      Deep bottom retest.
      Holding. So far.

    Jan 25, 2024 25:55 AM

    Very good discussion.

    Jan 25, 2024 25:32 AM

    Status of Gold’s Bullish Cup & Handle Pattern

    By Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA • The Daily Gold – January 17, 2024

    Jan 26, 2024 26:42 AM

    10 minutes from Open to go negative. What’s new.