Craig Hemke – Geopolitics Driving Markets: Oil Price Volatility, Safe Haven Sentiment, a Precious Metals Summer Rally?
In this KE Report Daily Editorial, we’re joined by Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TFMetalsReport.com, for a timely and wide-ranging discussion on the intersection of geopolitics, precious metals, the US dollar, and mining equities.
We kick things off with the surprising market reaction to US missile strikes in Iran – including the sharp reversal in oil prices and the perception that escalation may be de-escalating. Craig explains why weekend geopolitical events often produce less market volatility by the time trading resumes, and how this specific event might mirror the short-lived Israel-Iran tensions from late 2024.
We then shift focus to the precious metals markets, where:
- The US Dollar Index hovering at 98 is acting as a pivotal level. A breakdown toward 96 could serve as a tailwind for both gold and silver, with gold already consolidating around $3,400.
- Craig sees signs of a summer rally for precious metals, especially if the dollar weakens further.
- Silver backwardation and contract rollovers are creating short-term volatility, particularly with July contracts nearing expiration.
- A strong monthly and quarterly close for silver could set the stage for a technical breakout.
On the mining equities side:
- Craig notes Newmont (NEM) is up ~50% YTD but still lagging more efficient operators.
- He expects a positive Q2 earnings season for miners, driven by significantly higher average gold and silver prices.
- However, not all equities will benefit equally. Craig emphasizes focusing on companies with low all-in sustaining costs, wide margins, and disciplined cost controls.
- He also sees last week’s weakness in GDX as potentially related to NYSE options expiration and short-term oil price fears—not a broader trend reversal.
We also preview Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony and the mixed signals from the FOMC dot plot, as well as the uncertainty created by potential tariff reinstatements under Trump.
Follow Craig’s work at TFMetalsReport.com
Looks like the ‘bank of silver’ was unlocked and open wide for the shorts to come in and pound it down three times in the last 8 hours… I guess they have to raise capital to invest in the big markets and ignore the small caps because it’s summer again!
Looks like summer correction in gold, silver and oil.
S&P and nasdaq is where all action would occur.
New high close for the Nasdaq 100 today but not an intraday new high. Interestingly, QQQ managed both a new high close as well as a new intraday high even though the Nasdaq itself failed to deliver any new high at all.
New highs by themselves will not fix the technical damage we’ve seen this year but most don’t know that so it is possible that stocks will spend more time above the previous highs than some bears expect. What the bulls should not hope for is the rate cut in July that Fed gov Bowman wants. Contrary to popular belief, that would not be a thing for stocks at all except, possibly, short term.
Precious Metals Sector Update – Where’s Waldo?
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (06-22-2025)
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/precious-metals-sector-update-wheres