Last weekend, I noted how bears in metals were quite scarce of late. Rather, everyone was quite certain that the bottom in metals has been struck and the bull market was back. Well, almost everyone!
Now, it seems at least some are beginning to question whether we have truly hit bottom. I still believe that the bottom has not yet been struck, but I am still net long since early November. Yet, I am looking for a set up at which I can develop a fully hedged positon for my long position (at this time, I am 50% hedged). And, that set up will either be after a 5th wave higher in this c-wave, or a full 5 wave structure to the downside, followed by a corrective 3 waves up.
As of Friday, the metals have left us in what can be considered the start of wave v of the c-wave higher. Well, truthfully, it is hard to consider silver in that same count, since its drop this past week was quite a bit more exaggerated than GDX or GLD, which has left a question mark in my mind as to what silver is actually doing. So, I am going to reserve judgment on silver until I see more action in the upcoming week, and will send out a Market Update to subscribers at Elliottwavetrader.net when I have more information. But, silver may have already topped and now developing a 1-2, i-ii scenario to the downside.
But, I want to continually reiterate that I am not convinced the bottom has been struck in metals, and still think we will see lower lows later this year. To remind you of my targets, I am still looking for a minimum target of 105 in GLD, with an ideal target of 95-100, with the potential to see an overreaction low at 75. But, a 5 wave drop into that region is going to be a STRONG buy. In fact, it may be the best buying opportunity you may see from this time forth for the next 50 years. In silver, my next target lower is 12.75. And, in GDX, I am looking for the low teens.
I also want to warn those bullish on metals that any upcoming upside move will likely end quite soon. In fact, should we see a new high in a 5th wave into the targets I have highlighted in GDX and GLD, I will finally have a reason to short this market since we struck the bottom in November. That could very well mark the top from which we finally see our lower lows I still expect.
GDX chart
GLD Daily chart
Silver Daily chart
