Hey guys. Not sure if you can post this for me, or if we can discuss this in our next interview, but I saw the posts about Stockman and those at Zerohedge regarding how bad the “debt crisis” is and that it is hard to be bullish this market. Unfortunately, this type of thinking has kept people from enjoying the profits of one of the best bull market price action we have seen in decades.
Ultimately, one must understand the difference between “imminent” and “eventual.” Are we going to have a sovereign debt crisis? ABSOLUTELY. Is it going to happen tomorrow?? ABSOLUTELY NOT. Will we get early warning signs before it happens? ABSOLUTELY. Will the stock market drop by 1000 points overnight and gold go up by $1000 overnight? ABSOLUTELY NOT!!! This type of fear mongering has been pushed by too many analysts out there, and it has done such a huge disservice to the investing public at large.
Personally, I was appropriately bearish back in 2011, but when the market started to show signs that it had no interest in anything more than a correction, I had to turn bullish, and began looking for new all-time market highs. When I turned bearish at the end of 2013, the market again showed me that it was going to continue in a much longer term bullish move. I then became bullish in the mid 1800 region and have not looked back since. Of course, I am going to be looking for a 20-30% correction to begin over the next 12 months . . . I am not blind to the potential. But, until the market shows signs that this larger degree rally is completing, I am not willing to grab my ankles and assume a fetal position.
People need to get out of thinking that the market is going to collapse any day now. They need to apply a level headed approach to the market, and not take any uber-bull or uber-bear perspective seriously. Like everything else in life, there is no black and white . . .. it is all grey. They need to learn how to survive in the grey matter within the investing world, or else they lose a lot of opportunity.
Avi Gilburt, Esq.