Greetings,
Just a few thoughts and comments on the AP story today on the draft of the nuclear deal between the US, Iran and the P5+1. Feel free to quote:
If the AP story is correct it shows several things. First of all, this is the clearest sign yet that the two sides are in the eleventh hour – and they are close to getting a historic agreement. If the numbers are correct, then clearly diplomacy has worked.
Both sides have agreed to major chnages to their policies. Iran has reduced its number of centrifuges with more than 2/3, from 20,000 to 6,000, while agreeing to unprecedented intrusive inspections. The US side has agreed to significant sanctions relief upfront, further showing that concessions only could be won by offering concessions in turn.
This provides both sides with strong arguments as they return to their capitols to sell the deal at home. The Iranians have secured important sanctions relief, while the Obama administration has secured a year-long breakout capability, major reduction in centrifuges plus an unparalleled inspections regime.
Achieving a stronger deal than this is simply not realistic. The pressure-only approach the Bush administration pursued – and that the critics of the Obama deal would like to return to – only produced a fast growing Iranian nuclear program. For the first time, thanks to persistent diplomacy, that program has now been paused and all paths to a bomb will be closed.
Trita Parsi, PhD