Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report, joins us to recap the bounce in precious metals that was accelerated after the FOMC press conference and GDP numbers were released, and to look ahead to the dynamics within the jobs report data due out tomorrow. We review that the bounce in silver, gold, and many mining stocks were due to short-covering, and that the COT positioning was at very contrarian levels, ripe for a reversal, prior to the news popping things higher.
Next, Craig breaks down how the birth/death adjustment for businesses figures into the 20 year average of jobs created on a given month, but how arbitrary the modeling can be, and when taken in tandem with job surveys, still isn’t necessarily reflective of the true health of the labor markets. With so many other metrics showing cracks under the surface with weekly jobless claims, unemployment claims, and small and large companies either freezing new hiring or firing workers, he feels the jobs numbers estimates will be inflated into a more positive spin, as a way of deflecting the recession concerns.
We wrap up with getting Craigs thoughts on why it is important for short to medium-term investors to still pay attention to these data points and central bank monetary policies, even if they are fatigued from so much focus on the Fed.