In this KE Report daily editorial, Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and Editor of the Marc to Market blog joins to dive into the surprising U.S. jobs data and what it means for Fed policy, the U.S. dollar, and global markets.
- Jobs Report Surprise:
The June nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, defying expectations of a weaker print. While headline numbers were stronger, falling labor force participation and softer hourly earnings point to a gradually slowing labor market. - Fed Rate Cut Outlook:
The data pushed back market confidence in a July rate cut and weakened expectations for a September move. Marc still sees a September cut as most likely – especially with slowing economic growth and tariff policy uncertainty on the horizon. - Tariffs, Tax Cuts & the Deficit:
We discuss the looming July 9th tariff deadline, the new tax bill’s impact on deficits, and the long-term consequences of structurally high U.S. spending. Marc flags growing concerns over who will fund future U.S. debt and how markets may eventually react. - Dollar Under Pressure:
The dollar’s downtrend may continue as the Fed lags behind other central banks in easing. With most global central banks front-loading rate cuts, U.S. divergence could weigh on the greenback. - Trickle-Down Tensions:
Can Reagan-era tax cut logic still hold in today’s economy? Marc challenges the trickle-down narrative, pointing to rising inequality and persistent fiscal imbalances.