Darrell Fletcher, Managing Director of Commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, joins us to unpack key insights from LME Week, the ripple effects of backwardation across metals, and how he’s positioning clients amid a “healthy” precious-metals correction and a mixed energy tape.
Key Discussion Points
- LME Week sentiment: Big crowds and a notably upbeat tone for base metals; consensus poll favored copper #1, aluminum #2, tin #3 for upside potential.
- Backwardation watch: Recent spikes in silver and zinc (cash > 3-month) point to near-term physical tightness; copper’s curve flattening with hints of front-end firmness.
- Precious metals reset: Gold down ~8% from highs and silver off ~10% in a sharp but “healthy” bull-market shakeout; year-to-date gains remain substantial.
- Base metals leadership: Copper acting as bellwether; aluminum and zinc following; tin up ~23% YTD – underinvestment and broad asset inflation cited as tailwinds.
- Energy check-in: Crude bounced on Russian sanctions headlines but remains range-to-lower on surplus outlook; U.S. natgas swings driven by front-month positioning and weather.
- Data gap risk: Four weeks without COT reports adds uncertainty to quant/models – potentially tempers risk-taking in WTI and Henry Hub.
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