Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins me for a candid conversation around the impacts of geopolitics, macroeconomics, Fed policy, a technical outlook on gold and silver prices, and the ongoing disconnect in the valuation of the precious metals stocks, considering the record margins and revenues they experienced in Q1, which just wrapped up last week.
Key Discussion Points:
- Geopolitics can swamp the charts and macroeconomics in the short-term: The upcoming deadlines that the US has imposed on Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening, could either end in a deal or more bombing and fighting. Either scenario could see such a large market reaction. This makes it nearly impossible to forecast what may play out in the short-term.
- Central Bank policy response tools are limited: If inflation starts moving higher on the back of higher oil, fertilizer, chemical, and manufacturing inputs, then the Fed’s ability to cut rates will be more muted. However, if the global economy slows from a ‘demand shock’ then central banks will err on the side of running the economy hot, cutting rates, and easier monetary policy.
- Interest Rates and the US Dollar response need to be monitored closely: Craig points out from a larger macro perspective that market has it wrong regarding future rate hikes, citing the unsustainable cost of refinancing the growing sovereign debt levels if rates go to high. He’ll be watching both the short and long end of the interest rate curve, as well as the US dollar response.
- The Disconnect in Mining Equities: Much media speculation has been made about margin compression facing producers as energy costs rise, but that is painting all mining companies with the same broad brush, without any legitimate analysis for how much their margins may be affected.
- The PM prices in the first quarter were at record average quarterly prices, which will lead to records Q1 revenues and earnings, even as the stock corrections got overdone and oversold.
- We’d have to see a massive selloff in metals during Q2 to get the average prices and margins down under just Q4 of 2025, much less that of Q3 2025. This means that Q2 will likely outperform the current expectations based on where PM stocks are priced today.
Click here to visit Craig’s website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/
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