John Rubino, [Substack https://rubino.substack.com/ ], joins us for another wide-ranging discussion around the geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic catalysts that are leading to volatility in oil, the energy sector, uranium, gold, silver, and the related resource stocks.
We start off reviewing the volatility and recent extreme surge higher in oil prices due to the continued conflict and uncertainty around the war in the Middle East.
- News of the ceasefire may send oil prices lower in the near-term, but John points out it is unlikely we’ll see oil prices go all the way back down to where they were several months ago. There has been too much infrastructure damaged through all the bombing campaigns from both sides of the conflict for a snapback supply response.
- Oil company margins, will remain elevated even if oil pulls back down into the low $90s or $80s or even $70s.
- Headline driven dramatic pullbacks in oil company prices could be a good entry point for medium-term accumulation; especially if it is a dividend-paying stock.
When reviewing what parts of the energy sector show the most promise or opportunity, John points out that really the whole suite of energy inputs from solar to uranium to coal and natural gas are all needed.
- He points out that parts of Europe is now realizing the folly of shutting down some nuclear power plants or being overly reliant on renewables or Russian natural gas, and so they are turning back to restarting coal plants in desperation.
- Conversely, he highlights that China has had the ideal approach of starting up as many different forms of power plants as possible to feed the trend of increasing energy demands.
- He also points to how increased copper demand to feed growth projections around electric vehicles, A.I. data centers, and connecting to demands on the energy grid will keep the red metal well bid for years to come.
Turning to the extreme volatility in both directions in the precious metals thus far in 2026 – John sees opportunities for placing low-ball bids in quality gold and silver stocks that have corrected by 30%-50% off their January and February highs.
- When asked how to avoid the danger of “catching the falling knife” if these PM stocks just keep correcting, he lays out the positive and negatives of using stop-loss orders. He also points to using option strategies to make profits on the way down to eventually buying a stock one already wants to accumulate at a lower pre-determined strike price.
- We note again that PM stocks are not fully factoring in the higher metals prices seen in Q1 into their current valuations, which is giving investors and edge to accumulate existing positions or initiate new positions in stocks that had previously run away to the upside into the current weakness.
- John points out that their growing piles of cash on the balance sheets of highly profitable gold and silver producers will be used for paying dividends, buying back their shares, or merger & acquisitions deals.
When pressed on if the bull market in precious metals was over, he pointed out that conditions that created the big run in gold and silver prices are still present and have not fundamentally changed; and have actually strengthened.
- John brings up the ongoing concerns about the growing sovereign debt crisis in nations all over the world, and the desire by governments and central banks to cut interest rates and throw money at slowdowns to run the economy hot and to try and grow their way out of the economic challenges they face.
- Those fiscal and monetary policies will be even more inflationary, leading to a debt spiral, and how affect global currencies and interest rates; which should remain longer-term bullish factors for the precious metals.
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