I am now doing a morning and afternoon post regarding the metals markets. What do you all think?
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Many thank Leroy.
Today’s am commentary will be up shortly.
Big Al
Good idea.
I look forward to both.
Many thanks, Austin
Big Al
the more informed we all are the better.
Hi BH,
Yep, we are all in this together. We need to learn from each other because we all have our strengths.
Best,
Big Al
I think this is a great idea, and very much appreciated along with all else you do with your show.
Thanks Al!
All I ask, James, is that you keep your comments coming.
We all learn from each other.
Big Al
Hello AL. Two things happened over the weekend, which i believe is positive for gold. 1 The QATARI wealth fund plan’s to spend $10bn on gold mines. They are very savy people, & perhaps they see what the future holds for fiat paper. 2 The article in the FINANCIAL TIMES , was very bullish for gold. As far as silver is concerned anything thats good for gold is even better for silver, i still believe it will outperform gold. What do you think ?.
Hi Mr. Irish and James B,
I am going to use this as part of my Afternoon Gold Report
Thanks for the help,
Big Al
Yes AL , The writing is on the wall , in HUGE letters, people see it. THEY JUST DONT GET IT.
Thanks BIG Al,
I agree with other comments that this is a great idea. We all appreciate your efforts and this one is worthwhile.
Thank U so much. Big Al 2x a day is a blessing. You are a breath of frsh air against the gold doomsdyers of the day: Moriarity of 321gold and Pupu Saxena.
Pupu is interesting. Late August he made a video saying that the metals will rise strongly over time then in mid september he says here comes a crash and still at Sept 30, he wrote – as did Moriarity – that the metals will slide to much cheaper levels.
These two are concrete examples why the public has a low opinion of financial pundits. They hide their cards close to their chests, speak in a language that only they and the insiders know and seem open to taking advantage of peoples’ fears.
Peter the Politician Schiff is another example. During this 3 week stomach turning session of goldsilver, he was AWOL on direction.
Just before the metals plunged, he was on KWN sounding as if the world will not see the weekend.
Re: Moriarity and Saxena, Maund is now writing that silver has never appeared to be more bullish.
good job James B-I fully agree on moriarity, not as much on pupu
btw-whose is sinclair’s “master kenny”???
James B,
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions.
I would guess that anytime gold and silver fall, even if it is during an uptrend, they will claim to be correct.
Hell, none of us are always correct. You, I and anyone with an IQ above 70 knows that.
We have to look at all opinions and then personally determine what we think the direction will be.
Best,
Big Al
Hi James B from Canada,
Just curious, why the comment on Peter Schiff? He has a radio show, newletter and blog. I don’t follow it all but from what I have read, he presents some good information. The way I look at it, everyone has an opinion but since there are no free markets it is hard for anyone to be accurate. I listen to as much as possible and form my own opinion.
Hi Karen,
You took the words right out of my mouth.
Big Al
I listened to Peter for three weeks and read his site. His guests all have a common thread to say why the economic structure of the US and the West is a disaster. Yes we know it is, but where is the advice re: investing and why did you and your guess avoid the topic of stuck or falling metals prices for three weeks? We go to his site to thear his show for advice and not tell us things we already know.
Hi James B,
I understand your point but I don’t think anyone counld predict. Anyway, what he puts on the web is free.
Wasn’t Clive Maund saying silver was going to 20 a week ago?
Hi silverbug(Dave)
Did he say $20? I don’t read his stuff and perhaps I should.
Big Al
Hi Big Al,
You have a great mind, we are coming out of the eye of the storm.
I am glad I found your sight some time ago.
We are all going to get rich or shall I say richer.
HI Paul S
When I refer to the “eye of the storm” I am talking about a combination of the economic environment and the political environment.
I don’t believe that we are coming out of the eye of that storm yet.
Best,
Big Al
Hi Al,
Since the “eye” refers to the relative calm within the storm, I have to agree with Paul S. While I don’t believe we’re going to have quite the liquidity problems of ’08, it seems pretty obvious that we’re already experiencing more “storm” and less “eye of the storm.” The vix is up, default insurance is rising, and other indicators seem to lend support to this view.
Regarding your morning show, I think the timing is good given that there will be an increasing awareness that there is NOWHERE left to be other than gold/silver. Even Jim Rogers’ ag plays don’t hold a candle to gold and silver, fundamentally. The rest of the resource space is not the pure-play that gold/silver are, when we’re confronted with global currency debasement in response to massive debt at all levels along with collapsing economies.
Okay Matthew, Big Al stands corrected. (Remember I said how we all learn from each other!)
I think personally that this could possibly evolve into more trouble that we say in 08.
Yeh, the morning segment will be fun to do and it will definitely keep me on my toes.
Thanks for the comments,
Big Al
Thanks for clearing my comment up.
Hi Al,
I beieve we should wait and be patient. Even though Dow is down and gold is slightly up. Gold Stocks are down. There are three commentaors from KWN that forcasted this
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/30_Weldon_-_Here_is_Where_We_are_Headed_After_the_Recent_Smash.htmlhttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/10/2_Martin_Armstrong.html
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/9/24_Ben_Davies.html
Wait until Greece collapses and see what happens There should be a flood of money to boost up the markets
Today I did not buy anything though it was tempting
I will wait for gold to hit $1550, silver $26-28
Did not David Morgan also state that it could go lower
Hi Joe,
I stated on the show last week, that I was currently sitting on the sidelines. I still plan to do that but my time frame may be shorter than the commentators that you referenced above.
Today was more than a very interesting day in the markets.
Best,
Big Al
Clive Maund was wrong its not $20.
David Morgan said IT MIGHT that doesnt mean it will. We need buyers to support the recovery. Asia supported the recovery last night along with the UK today. Its the opening of the US stockmarket that trashes the price almost every day.
Look at the Kitco chart today.
Give us a break!
SLV bears have a sell day and the price drops, then the bulls have the next day to try and support. This appears to alternate all the time. One step forward and then three back.
I cant see what the bears are doing with this low volume apart from damaging the market for the future.
Very serious technical damage has been inflicted in the Gold chart and even more so with the silver.
It will take a long time to recover to $40, you can forget the $50 until 2013.
ETF’s do not help silver prices and they cause volatility, you need to buy physical to create a shortage, thats the only way to the highs again.
I dont believe the ETF’s hold your money in the value of silver, its impossible
You couldnt get it when it was $48. They like low prices they dont need to hold much, or any at all!
THEY HAVE ALREADY FLEECED YOU OF YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY
Hi Martin (UK)
As you are aware, I don’t invest in ETF’s.
Please explain to me how very serious damage has been inflicted on the gold and silver charts.
Regarding Mr. Maund, as I said in an earlier response we are all entitled to our opinions. What we all need to do is listen to them all and decide what we personally believe.
Best,
Big Al
I think you nailed it. The bears are trying to “damage the market for the future.” Uneconomic selling has been a feature of this bull market for years. While the technical damage is undeniable, I don’t think we’ll have to wait as long as you say to recover $40 and $50, respectively. Although the action in past corrections in silver are more supportive of your scenario than mine, I believe the days of 18 month corrections are behind us. With investment demand increasing exponentially, one of the ways the bullion banks are able to maintain their influence on the price is to allow the price to rise, but on their terms. They allow the little retail investors to take the price as high as they can by exhausting their resources, then they end up with an easy point for a takedown since pros don’t chase prices higher. What would’ve been an ordinary correction is now a violent smack down. While outright control is virtually impossible, excessive influence seems nearly permanent. The clueless little guy can get hurt no matter the price. If people would buy weakness, they would be much happier. But I digress. Anyway, silver is still trading way below it’s 1980 high, and has powerful fundamentals driving it. I can’t think of any other asset with that combination. Copper is still 130% above it’s 1980 high, even after the current 30% decline. If silver had performed the same, it would be $115. In a free market, fundamental realities paint the technical picture. In this market, at least over the short term, the monopolistic power of a select few have that privilege.
greater words ,,were never spoken…..well, maybe they have been.
Matthew…..great post..You take off ,,where HEMMINGWAY left off.
always enjoy your writings…
respectfully,
Jerry
Thanks Jerry, but I’m not worthy!
Remember this great quote?:
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
Ernest Hemingway
Hi Matthew
Thanks for your input, we will have to wait and see. Would you agree that a greek defult would boost gold & silver prices. The impending default should be boosting prices but its not.
The dollar is too strong. I personally dont regard the 1980 price of $50 as a high. It was false and created by the hunts brothers and lasted hours, it was not a true representation of the price.
I think we could do with that scenario now so we can get our money back.
Dear Al, regarding your reply I know you wouldnt touch ETF,s, David Morgan is a stout believer of physical also.
Hi Martin,
I would agree that a greek default would boost gold and silver prices. I disagree that it hasn’t. The biggest money has access to not only better information, but better information before the rest of us. The $470 rise in just six weeks this summer was due precisely to concerns over default. To a great extent, the gains of the entire bull market have been generally due to the same concerns. It’s worth pondering that gold has resumed it’s outperformance versus nearly everything but the dollar. Both the dollar and gold were due for a reversal, but in opposite directions. While the dollar might to continue to outperform other currencies, I don’t believe it will outperform gold for long. When it comes to risk, there is no comparison. The dollar price of gold is not always a good reflection of the real value of gold. Sometimes the value of gold is falling even though the $ price is rising; other times, the value is rising even though the $ price is falling. And, of course, sometimes everything is as it should be, and the value rises with the rising price.
Regarding the 1980 high for silver, your stance is common, but I strongly disagree for a few reasons. The least of which would be the gold silver ratio returning briefly to it’s natural and constitutional average of about 15-16:1. I realize that this average carries more psychological weight than statistical, but then, so does short term price action in the market. Next, is silver’s performance versus gold. For the entire bull market, gold went up 24 times while silver went up 37 times. This is very consistent with their modern historical relationship. We still see a similar outperformance today. Then we have the silver/oil ratio. In May of 1933, one silver dollar was worth 4 barrels of oil. Since a silver dollar is .72 oz, a silver dollar at the 1980 high was worth just over 1 barrel. While this is probably a reflection of just how bad the 1930’s were, silver in 1980 still only achieved one-third the oil value. Finally, the focus on the Hunt brothers is probably exactly what those in charge wanted. Just as we constantly see in headlines today, the intent is to misdirect the public from the real reason for anything. This is especially true for financial/monetary matters. For example, bread is up only due to drought; oil is up due tensions in the middle east. Outside of some financial publications, we never see a headline pointing to currency debasement. “The dollar falls 66% versus bread and oil!” So the high-profile of the Hunts provided good cover for bad policies. “There’s nothing to see here folks! Move along!” Besides, could they really have been so naive? Who takes on the “house” on their own turf. They would have avoided leverage and taken delivery. We should also not forget that nothing was stopping the rest of the market from fading everything the hunts did. The collective wealth of countless pros could have easily stemmed whatever the Hunts attempted. They didn’t, I believe, for fundamental reasons. There are over 100 times as many billionaires in the world today, any demand from them will have a very real impact.
Having said all that, all spike highs or lows are short in duration. This is why I compare silver’s highs with the highs of other assets. You don’t want to compare highs with some average. That would be apple and oranges.
In sum, I would conclude that if the silver price was false, so too was the gold price.
As you said, we will see. I just don’t think the market will continue to ignore the counter-party risk in the dollar. Especially with trust and transparency already so lacking. Not to mention the well established track record of terrible mismanagement.
I will listen, but am wary of two things:
1. I would not wish you to burn out and disappear altogether.
2. I worry that two efforts per day might dilute content. I guess what I think is that I would appreciate your efforts as long as there is something worth hearing about, but just listing price movements gets out of date quickly and is better obtained in real time direct from stockbroker/kitco.
I thank you for all your efforts.
Hi cfs2000(David)
I will keep it as interesting as possible and definitely just discuss price movements.
Burn out? Maybe, but honestly I have never had more fun!
Best,
Big Al
great idea Al-the writing IS on the wall
At some point the hedgies have to lament over selling their gold to cover loses as nothing else except s&p shorts are up, and I dont see them buying t bills!
Love the twice a days
please ask rog if he sees oil below 75
Hi Edward Murphy,
On today’s Daily Editorial with Roger and Rick, Rick indicated that he predicts oil to be in the $60’s sooner rather than later.
Best,
Big Al
A divergence is obvious, the market is down, metals are sideways to up. Given any manipulation, this shoud be a turn. Good idea Al on the post.
Thanks Big Al Martin.
Best,
Big Al
yes Al and I AGREE you are the most calming person to listen to in this P M space.
Thank you in advance for all the morning broadcasts
Hi Ms precious metals trader,
Thanks for the kind words. As you are aware, emotions should have no role in investment decisions.
Best,
Big Al
Big Al,
Don”t forget to breathe! Are you sure you are not going overboard – take care of yourself! By the way, if the Euro fails and everybody floods back to the US dollar and that will be temporarily detrimental to PM’s until everybody realizes that the dollar is
dying too. – like Hunter at USA watchdog says – where else do you go?! When in doubt follow the Chinese they know what’s going on in the world of fiscal responsibility – for the most part – I see that my “family relatives” in Swiss land caved in – what’s next – it certainly isnt going to be gold and silver!
Hi Marc,
I put a lot of credence in what the Chinese do.
Best,
Big Al
Just a thought…”Silver Bulls vs. Silver Bears”….
A silver Bull says:
Silver is in short supply and will go up many hundreds of percent. Investor demand hasn’t even begun to show it’s true strength! Industrial applications for silver are in constant demand!
A silver Bear says:
The world economic markets are falling apart…silver demand will drop like a stone because it is an “industrial metal” for the most part…this whole market is “speculator driven and now they’re leaving!”…”it’s all over!”
It is these two different viewpoints that you constantly read and hear over the Net and in the media…and ultimately “both will be right”.
Someday, the metals bull will finally top out and a “true” bear market will begin…are we there now?…I am a Bull so I say “NO!”…but one thing that you will always find…
During a big climb up the bulls say: “Na..na…na,na…na…I told you so!” and during a big drop or smack down the bears say the exact same thing!
Both sides stick their tounges out at each other in the media all the time!
…oops!…that last line should have been “tongues”
Yep Bruce in Ottawa,
Ain’t that the truth!
Big Al
I for one like my updates as current as pssible. Morning and afternoon is just fine with me. Al and Rog, your efforts are much appreciated. Thanks
AL:
It is beginning to look more and more like a deflationary depression is on its way (IMO). This is all beginning to make sense to me — the bankers have tanked the States (as well as Europe) and NOW they need to tank Canada. What better way than to tank commodities (our bread and butter). Then, and only then, can they bring in their North American Union / currency (as was planned in 2005).
Also — this seems to be a repeat during the 30’s (everything dumped — bankers and their buddies bought everything up for pennies on the dollar — and oh yeah, they nationalized gold). My spidey senses are tingling!!!
I might point out that things in Europe are in a bit of a hold at the moment.
I believe when the new italian head of the ECB takes office (A week hence), printing will start up in Europe, legality or illegality of same notwithstanding, and that will be both inflationary and gold-positive.
Also, gold buying in India and China goes on, apparantly unabated by price.
Not ingredients for deflationary depression, unless the USA completely detaches from the rest of the world.
CFS2000:
Thanks for the response — my concern is this: the exact scenario during the 30’s was that the elites crashed all commodities … stocks crashed as a result … and then they moved in and bought up these companies for pennies on the dollar (it was a planned crash – historical evidences attest to this fact). That said, if a game plan works fine once, do you not think that they will use the same model? I do!!! If in fact they are trying to usher in their North American Union (which it seems that they are), then commonsense dictates that they will have to bring the Canadian economy down with the ship so that they can step in and offer a North American economic “solution”. Since Canada’s economy is highly commodities driven, if the prices of commodities go through the roof (as you suggest), then there will be no Canadian collapse and thus, no need of a “solution”. I say “watch out!!!”
Yup Mr. Bentnail,
Very interesting times. Probably better off in Alberta in the long run!
Best,
Big Al
The best investor/speculator is the one who is the most informed having said that I hope we will still get Roger’s comments on market trends as often as possible, he has a valuable insight into the machinations of what is going on. Thanks!
I enjoy your once a day coverage of the metals but twice a day will keep me that much more informed. Appreciate what information you give out.Thanks Al