Don’t Panic, Conditions Are Still Positive for Gold and Silver
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This was from a listener sent to my personal e-amil and I wanted his permission before I posted it.
I guess the big question is, “Will this rectify the problem in Europe?” I don’t think so.
Big Al
I like Hemal’s prediction of banker bonuses because of their brilliance in taking newly invented money, gifted to their banks, and held in some country at a higher interest rate. Boy, wish I could be a real fart-smeller like them Euro guys (hey Tex, how’s that for a little Texan “grand daddy” expression!).
See out market trends response for yesterday – traderrog
Anytime there is a big move to the downside, I have to ask myself,
Has there been any fundamental changes in real debt reduction efforts, true
austerity steps, and major policy directional change?
In this case no change in fundamentals. No need to panic. Great buying
opportunity. Green light!
David,
My thoughts exactly, very non-emotional, logical and right on the frickin money! – or should I SAY – gold and silver.
All the best,
Marc
I kind of like fiat currency to be defined as frickin money!
Big Al
HI David,
My thoughts exactly, my friend!
Big Al
Next week the gold stocks will finally go up. I promise. For all of you down 50% from where you bought last summer I’m sure eventually gold stocks will rise before management dilutes the shareholders to pay their 6 figure salaries. Next week I promise gold stocks will stop underperforming the DOW, I’m sure of it, next week.
HI Dave,
Tell me why you are so absolutely sure of this.
Thanks,
Big Al
Al, since September, sarcastic Dave has been coming here to whine about his misfortune about once a month. He refuses to take responsibility for his investment actions.
Hi Matthew,
I agree with you completely regarding Dave. He reminds me of a kid who sits in a sandbox all by himself, because he “does not play well with others”. Right next to him is another sandbox with 5-6 kids, boys and girls, all playing together, helping each other make sand mounds, roads for their Tonkas, tunnels, stations, towns, and “mines”. They are having a blast. The lone ‘knucklehead’ next door, is throwing sand up in the air, scowling, muttering under his breath, and just is in a real “snit” as he watches the other kids having fun. Pretty soon he can’t stand it any longer so he comes over to their sandbox, with hands on hips, and begins to talk down the towns, mounds, roads, mines, stations, and all the other things the kids have built together. Their sandbox is to small, the sand isn’t right, they don’t know how to build things properly, and on and on he goes, brow-beating and berating the efforts of the ‘doers’. That unhappy child is Dave. Dave, go back to your sandbox, OR you can change your attitude and get in our sandbox and join the team!! What do you say, big boy?
(Copied from yesterday’s Market Trends)
Roger
This Wednesday morning, while I was watching Ben B. on BNN while the price of gold and silver flew all over the place, I explained to my children what was happening.
The credit facility should shoot the price of precious metals up but manipulators were working the prices down to pretend that confidence is abound for the intellectuals. This happens in real time to deflate the esteem of precious metal investors, like me, to make us feel even more like backwater hillbillys shootin’ stuff off our porches with Ron Paul and the ghost of Andrew Jackson.
Dan
You forgot to add Big Al to that illustrious list!
Big Al
Thanks for your support! Laughing out load about that.
Dan
Hello Al, Rog and everyone! Yes, I’m still checkin’ in here, but I’ve been too busy to write anything. As always, I totally appreciate your site and all the great information and comments found here. So I will contribute one more that no one in talking about: MANIPULATION! Could it be, that the slam this morning had a little help from those who don’t like silver prices climbing? I’ve read some very convincing articles on this, the most important coming from The Morgan Report, Dec. issue 2011– “Summary of Bix Weir’s Speech at the 2011 Silver Summit Is There Silver Price Manipulation?”. According to this report, its all been admitted and explained (gives names and details), and not only that, but it was told how and when it would happen next, and it did… just like they described! The point was that there IS proven manipulation of the silver market! So what about this morning??? Seems a bit too powerful and fast to be “just a end month correction” –no disrespect to you at all, Rog! It just seems like that may not be the whole story… especially suspect for those who watched it on the charts!
Take care and best to you all!
Lynn H. (female) HA !!!
HI Lynn H,
I can’t disagree with you!
Big Al
No panicking, but grabbing profits when they come along; how ’bout SVL?
Woooooooooooooo!!!
Question for Trader Rog;
What kind of stock market sell-off should we anticipate in regards to the Presidential Election?
Thanks for your time and the daily Market Report.
Hi Superdobbs,
I will ask him to comment on this.
My personal opinion is that I don’t think there will be a major sell-off.
The political environment makes absolutely no sense to me at all.
Listen to my interview on the Weekend Show with Jeff Deist.
Best,
Big Al
Crybaby Dave aside, today’s action so far has been all bark and no bite. At this moment, two-thirds of yesterday’s gains are gone from my holdings – BIG DEAL! On top of that, guess what, by falling less than gold, the miners are actually UP today in REAL terms.
At stockcharts dot com, take a look at $xau:sgol to see how Orwellian things are.
Also, I have to disagree that this had anything to do with profit taking. This was political selling (Sinclair’s MOPE). Economic selling is far more discreet. Additionally, Bernanke was testifying today. I can’t count the number of times gold and silver have been hit while Ben is speaking. Maybe they made it a little special this time because of Ron Paul.
http://www.silverseek.com/article/ron-paul-assaults-ben-bernanke-parallel-currencies-video
Whatever the reason for today’s action, we’re better off for it, overall, as the overbought status of everything was already limiting further upside. Dumb money has been flushed once again, though there may be a few floaters who will wait for a bounce to get out.
Matthew
Go Ron Paul, make Ben sweat fiat currency. The Fed has two tricks: subterfuge and debt creation.
Dan
HI Dan,
Debt creation is not a trick it is a tragedy!
Big Al
HI Matthew,
Yes, the dumb money is getting flushed out!
Big Al
Otis is currently up 12.2% without news.
Probably because of the last couple of press releases.
Big Al
Could be, but I also think that someone decided to step-up and buy once they saw that even a day like today has failed to shake shares into buyer’s laps.
Hi, a fellow hocesmhooler visiting from the hop! well, yeah, homeschooling is kind of a limited subject, but you are right, it is really our one big hobby/job so we think about it a lot and write about it a lot. I do think though, that when we share what we do, crafts/lessons/read alouds and resources we use, that even non-homeschool moms might find something useful/fun they can do afterschool or on a weekend, so I figure it is all good and we can all learn from each other. it’s nice to meet you, I love the name of your blog, very sweet.
Corvus was also up today, and has been all month on much higher volume.
Today is the First Notice Day for Silver, gold, copper and the other white metals,
looks like someone did not have the metal for delivery?
Very possible, Greg.
Big Al
Short term gyrations and manipulations mask the underlying big things. There are many reasons for this but put aside those things and look at the big picture over a longer period, say 5 year increments.
Take Argentina for example, something Doug Casey knows considerable about. Currently Argentina has a socialist President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchne. She has recently been enacting and passing laws and restrictions which prevent capital from exiting the country. This week she hinted about forcing major changes in the nations largest oil company YPF. Talk about nationalizing the company goes right along with socialist views of outsiders taking advantage of the Argentine people. The US has its own Socialist President Mr. Obama, who like Chavez in Venezuela and now Christina in Argentina has also enacted capital controls to prevent wealth from leaving the US.
When a country ends up with a growing poor class of people it is natural for Socialism to occur hand in hand. Capital controls installed by Socialism only causes a decline in productivity, jobs and revenue both private and public. If a country tells outsiders it is fine to bring your money to our country but you can’t take it out, who in the world will make investments in that country. This is the situation both Argentina and now the US are now in. But it is not just reduction of inflowing capital that hurts, it is also inside capital that is hoarded and put into safe keeping like Gold, Silver, Gems, Art work and expensive collectables.
From my perspective it is not necessarily just the price of something in Dollars that suggests the direction of a countries economy, but more importantly the amount of free capital moving in specific directions. So long as the US government continues down the path of attempting to centrally control capital, the weaker and weaker the country will become. Should the people of the US accept this direction, it will eventually become like North Korea or Iran. Is it Ironic or is it coincidence that two of the Federal Governments most problematic antagonists happen to be Iran and North Korea? It is not a coincidence but it is Ironic and very sad.
All I can hope for is that at least 33% of the American people will not let the current trajectory of the US continue, if not for themselves then for the other 2/3 who are penny rich but pound poor both financially and intelligently.
Morning Clay,
I thought your comments regarding socialism were particularly interesting.
Regarding getting money out of Argentina on the part of the miners, that is (at this point) not a big deal. The direction however could turn into a big deal.
Best,
Big Al
Al, Capital controls normally start first for citizens and corporations inside a country. Productivity and growth almost always decline unless the actions are reversed through removal of government leadership. If such people stay in power, and after witnessing further decline they usually extend the control to foreign investments instead of admitting failure of their policy. Argentina is an increasing risk just like Italy, Greece and many other nations. The same things will happen here in the US beginning this summer should it appear Obama will be re-elected.
I don’t want this to happen, but right now things look bad and getting worse. Hope I am wrong, truly I do.
I think the risk for the miners (possibly) is that the fear of nationalization of one industry can affect another, even whether it actually occurs or not. Cristina’s rush to follow the path of Venezuela or Zimbawbwe and nationalize oil both hints of financial desperation, as well as a complete lack of understanding of the economic consequences to a nation’s future in doing so. Argentinians are apparently so proud of their ability to withstand hyperinflation that Kirchne seems to think she can impose whatever policy she wants and have the country flourish. I’m sure out in Cafayate, things are different.
just a brief comment about WB’s ridiculous comments about gold–always the same “arguments”—his favorite one involves the mention that all the gold in the world would form a giant useless cube. very good WB. So would all the copper, credit cards, big screen tvs, or any other physical item on this planet. The point is that gold, like anything else, is only useful if it is *not* lumped together in a giant useless cube, but rather hoarded as a *wealth reserve* throughout the world.
Gold and silver are divine metals; perfect creations that agnostic people don’t and can’t understand. That is why this is a polarizing subject.
They have no language barriers either.
Dan
HI again Dan,
Absolutely correct, no language barriers.
I was attending a presentation at church a few weeks back and at that presentation gold was referred to as an “eternally lasting commodity”.
Best,
Big Al
Thanks for the comment skii,
My sentiments exactly!
Big Al
I bet Buffet is buying gold discreetly, using the privacy provided by a foundation.
Your comment, skii, is an excellent example of lateral thinking.
Mr. Buffet is someone I can, generally, admire. But as he notes in his yearly letter to stockholders, he’s often wrong. And frankly, because of his past successes, his errors usually amount to little in the eyes of his followers because of if BRKA goes up more or less every year, that’s all that matters to them.
I care about supply and demand.
Do more people want gold in Asia and the Middle East than there is supply? Check.
Is demand increasing in other regions in the world? Check.
Is supply decreasing? Check.
Are other commodities rising in price? Check.
Are world currencies unstable, dropping in price relative to commodities? Check.
I don’t care if Buffet thinks gold makes no dividend, or if it actually costs money to have armed guards stand around it. He obviously has done fabulously with equities during the last 60 years, but doing the very best right about the time the US dollar peaked in value, and overlapping the time where the US economy pulled-away from the rest of the world, post WWII. Had he started in 1930 instead of 1950, he might have a different view on gold.
No one here (and Dave might want to read this) considers a 100% gold portfolio for the next 100 years. But when debt goes hyperbolic, nations find it hard to borrow, and currencies rapidly decline, it’s pretty obvious where to invest.
Dan, I dont have a god or goddess unless it be all of them. No offence intended to anyone. (I cant say jesus is the only one, I insult all others,if I say many I insult christians, I cant win for loseing) My point is Gold is money and this non god person knows it, I mean we have had 5000 years to catch on.
Anyway I think this hit is from “da boyz” again, actually Mr. Butler was hinting a couple days ago this might happen.
Im keeping my position,nothing has changed just another good buying opportunity.
I was wondering, maybe the shares go parabolic when there is no physical left to be had. The power of the “dark side” is unreal. I think people should buy physical silver and never sell, well maybe when gold hits 30k. I just happen to think the way to beat the bad guys is to take the physical off the market.
Thanks for your comments benb,
Big Al
Benb-
There will be a SELL TIME at some point…BUT the bigger question is what do you do with the profits?! Real Estate, my friend, real estate…farmland, and investment- income producing stuff.
All the best,
Marc
I agree Marc,
Listen to my discussion with Ray Navis re: real estate on the upcoming Weekend Edition.
Best,
Big Al
benb
I absolutely appreciate your comment. I didn’t mean to get religious, I just want to point out that the beauty and usefullness and convient properties and rarity make them nothing short of perfect yardsticks of the moneychangers going wild.
Yes to physical off the market.
Dan
I just thought of somthing. Now< I agree with Rogers thinking about "end of month" etc. My thinking would be "da boyz" know that stuff and use it to their advantage.
Actually they know where every stop is every share held and by whom etc etc.
What I was wondering, why do they need to short, why cant they just sell their longs?
They know what stops trigger etc, what do you think Al, maybe the cot doesnt mean what it once did, with the cftc poking around and all.
Oh, and I am diversified with shares too gold/silver/oil. Still havnt convinced myself I should own them but I do and intend on keeping them.
HI benb,
I am not sure why they need to short. Does not make common sense.
I will pass this question along to Roger.
Best,
Al
Hi Roger, you said it was going to £38 in a flash yesterday. Correction you said was 9th or 10th for a correction.
Very disapponted with this a I almost sold my holding of 600kg of silver lunchtime UK as silver was looking flat for the day and I had recovereded my losses from April & septembers takedown.
Today wasnt a correction it was a take down. You said the cartel had slapped $108, 000,000 on silver shorts. Why didnt we see the writing on the wall. This has cost me around $48,000 today so I am suitably gutted!
HI Martin,
I believe that Roger said $38 and not 38 pounds.
Please always remember, nothing that we say can be construed as investment advice.
Best,
Big Al
typo Al
Did anyone steal silver from you, today?
As a wholesaler, doesn’t one always buy as one sells?
For all others, heed this advice:
http://www.dev1.panoscope.co.uk/images/CALM_STACKING.jpg
reply to impeachmall:
I work for a wholesalers, my investments are nothing to do with them
Martin,
You’re a smart guy and you’ve had a lot of great posts. I have to ask though…what is your timeframe or investment strategy?? Does it match what Rog’s Trader Tracks is doing? Analysis, no matter how good, will always have variables that no one can foresee. I know you know this, but with a suitable time frame, the effect of those errors can be very different.
I don’t have nearly as much on the line as you, but in my opinion and in my own analysis, holding silver for the next few years (subject to adjustment according to technicals and fundamentals) should go much higher as debt piles on all over the world. If that were your time frame, today’s drop/risk is not nearly as significant as the future possibility of reward. Not saying what you should do, but I really believe that, and have for about 1 decade now, and think it can go another decade if debt keeps spiraling out of control.
Hi John W. Robertson.
Yes I do understand that, but its very annoying that these banks and cartels arer allowed to short the market or even NAKED SHORT the market and then organise a take down. Nobody will convince me that that was a normal correction yesterday. In my opinion all shorting of PM’s should be banned.
Isnt naked shorting supposed to be banned…….. it still happens. Its always when New York opens we get the trouble. The feds are probablybehind this its all to coincidental with the large shorts and then Bernanke’s speech yesterday.
It stinks.
We are no further forward than we were last year with silver. I only deal with physical silver via our bullionvault account, see website. All these takedowns destroy faith in holding these metals, this is what the USA goverment want, so you support the dollar.
Its taken a whole year to recover the damage since April 2010, yesterday will knock confidence again, this could be followed with a margin call and then we are back to $29. Contrary to Rogers opinion I dont see this going straight back up to $38.
Best wishes to all oof you from the foggy UK (08:10hrs)
As regards your comment Marc, the game will never be up, at least not in my lifetime
Another Typo Al
April 2011 I meant
Short selling should be banned, they have started doing this with the banks in the EU
Martin,
You have a lot of guts doing what you did. The only way to handle it is dollar cost average in with the physical and have a “short term paper account”. For my taste, every other option will just make me what to throw up. The silver market, as you know, is still INCREDIBLY small – but is a KEG OF TNT< DYNAMITE AND NITRO GLYCERIN ready to explode once the game is up.
Marc
I agree Martin,
That is why I never, ever engage in short selling.
Big Al
Cool Al,
That must be why so many small investors like you Al.
Dan
Marc, that is my plan exactly. One needs to have the physical to minimize risk. The game has to be up at some point and I don’t want to be standing with SLV and USLV in my hands. It’s sad to know that these take-downs have and are hurting good people. The worst part is that I’d imagine there are many folks close to retirement that are “forced” to assume more leverage/risk in order to make up losses from the past 4 years. Can’t feel good about the JPM pro’s taking the novice’s dollars. In the meantime, it may be a great buy-in opp if this turns into a margin call bath.
Big Al and Rog, many thanks for the info and you guys keep up the good work…
Brad
Great comment in paragraph one Brad.
Thank you for your comments in paragraph two.
Big Al
Brad,
I could not have said it any better!…my friend.
All the best,
Marc
I am getting tired of these repetitive comments by Roger and other Goldbugs. Gold stocks haven’t gone anywhere since end 2007 early 2008. Example Barrick Gold..today around $47 Feb 2008 around $54. It’s just one example of Many. You guys continue to say ..Oh it’s a correction the stocks are going to go up…next week next month next quarter….ETC ETC ETC. Stop Dreaming..the gold stocks haven’t gone anywhere in FOUR YEARS.
Don’t listen to the programs if you don’t want to hear them. Do your own DD and research. How peculiar that you picked Barrick, do you happen to recall the last time that company and stock were favorably analyzed at KER?
I’ve said it here before, for the past several years the senior producers have been stuck in a range consolidating the gains of 2001-2008. Those gains were well over 1000%, so this period of sideways action has been good/necessary even if unenjoyable. We hold miners in an attempt to outperform gold, since gold is money. Paperbugs don’t understand how positive today’s action was. Hidden by the paper price carnage is the fact that the seniors (HUI and XAU) gapped up today in terms of gold, closing above their 50 day moving average for the first time THIS YEAR. It’s still early, but this and many other indicators suggests that the consolidation is over or ending. The miners are about to blow away gold’s gains again. Yes, I know, FINALLY.
For the record, carefully chosen juniors can ALWAYS provide huge gains. The last 4-5 years you mentioned weren’t at all bad for many, many of my juniors, to put mildly.
Thank you Ron Paul for bringing this up as a topic of discussion. Surely, this is the last thing Bernak wants to discuss in an open forum.
You won’t see Newt Romtorum bring up this topic.
Don’t make fun of Newt. He says he’s going to lower the price of gas to $2.50/gallon. I know it’s true. I read it in a newspaper.
As for the Price of Gold? well Kind of strange how it takes MONTHS to go up a few percentage points and only MINUTES to lose all those gains.
Yup just a correction..in another few MONTHS it MAY get somewhere, and the GOLD BUGS will continue to say BUY THOSE STOCKS…there going to go…any day wait for it…only another five or ten or twenty more years.
Reo,
Lets see how much gas, food, energy, gas, food, energy, gas, food, energy COSTS in 5, 10 or 20 years and then lets stack up my portfolio with your in terms of PURCHASING POWER and DEBASEMENT protection – then we will talk….and I will feed you after the meeting we have – because you CAN’T feed yourself.
All the best,
Marc
Reo, this and your last comments are good, but what is your investment strategy? Or are you trading?
Gold and silver have been unbelievable investments over the last 10 years on the long term, and even over the last 2 years in the shorter term. Even in that shorter same time, a person buying and holding the best mining producers or best mining explorers would be up significantly, and if they used some more trading techniques to take profits, have some very good returns.
A lot of people like myself keep crowing about gold/silver because of the abysmal nature of the European and North American economies, which makes it inevitable that gold must rise in price just to keep pace with money’s decline. Whether we believe in Efficient Market Theory or not, the people who make the stuff too, eventually have to make more money if their product sells for higher prices. There are good reasons why that takes more time to occur in this world of high-frequency trading and MSN sound bytes:
* Large gold mines fell-off in the late 1990’s. It takes years to explore and put a new mine in production. The latter part of that process is still only just occurring. Without something to sell, most companies remain speculative to most investors, whose knowledge of mining stocks tends to extend to the memories of Bre-X. Many companies see appreciation of their stock prices in stages, after pre-feasibility, then pre-production, and then after production starts and first profits are announced. At what point do you want to get in? If your answer is ‘when the stock is cheapest’, that could be years in advance!
* Metals’ current prices still seem temporary by most analysts, and therefore, investing in the companies who mine them is risky. What do you think about metals’ prices? What is the real reason, in your mind, that they have they gone up for over a decade? Have those reasons changed at all? If not, what will metal prices be in the future?
* Try having an intelligent conversation with the average person about the stock market, period. Now, try talking about the mining industry. Not to sound too Churchillian, but we are still closer to the beginning to the run-up in metal prices, than the end. It might be a presumption, but most people here are investing with a longer time frame. In fact, those long-term investments often pay-off much sooner, but still, the expectation is usually for a longer time frame.
* I’m not a fan of conspiracy theories, but GATA and certain others have demonstrated to me quite clearly that there are some powerful interests involved by leasing gold at, literally and figuratively, give-away rates. When this happens, it ploughs the price of metals down. It’s an effective and recurring technique. Expect it. But to look at the opposite of your comment, after it takes minutes to lose all those gains, what do you suppose will now happen once again over the next few months? ; ^ )
John W.
Highly constructive and intelligent response…I guess I lost my patience a little and gave Reo a smart-ass, non-productive answer. My apologies to Reo and thanks for setting things straight with a nice-schooled approach.
All the best,
Marc
Reo,your right,Martin Roger is a technical guy. I have read bull markets can blow techs out of the water. Now, about pm stocks going nowhere, i disagree,i have hit triples 5 and 10 baggers and more doubles than I can count.
BUT, I believe a person must understand that this is a crooked rigged game.
If it was a poker game the dealer knows every single card dealt.
What is going on is the “bad guys” are doing everything they can to STOP you from buying pm and their stocks. On the other hand many people KNOW whats going on and those people buy when these take downs occur. Its actually a really interesting fight, much better than american idol if you ask me.
Anyway, Roger is very good at what he does and is telling you the truth as he sees it. Al is a good man too That my friends is all that can be asked in my opinion.
Bob Moriarity once said, have all physical, get everything else in order and THEN shares. wise advice which I for one followed. The amount I have in shares makes no diferance to me if I lose, much rather win,in the game because im a gambler and I am certain that eventually its thru the roof and i want some and hope Im in the game when it happens.
I believe the only way to beat the “bad guys” is to take the physical silver off the market. Once that happens look out.Until then its sell if you think its gonna be a take down and add more once they took it down or remove cash whatever.
Anyway good luck guys, Ive been informing myself for years now and still know nutin.
Just 2 cents worth. Al and Roger are doing what they can for you. But humans are not 100% correct 100% of the time. Forgive is divine?
Keep it up Mr. Roger and Mr. Al. and thanks for everything.
Benb, thiis takedown information is what we needed yesterday or today before it happened, there has to be illegal collusion somewhere. It will NEVER end as they rip us off everytime
Martin,
I asked Bill Murphy (GATA) is there anyway for us peons (well, some of us are peons!) to check a leading indicator like lease-rates, to somehow foreshadow these brick-through-the-window takedowns. Alas, no. These manipulations can be decided on in 1 hour’s time. Matthew made a good point, though.
Today, the US Fed’s Beige Book came out, giving Bernanke a chance to exercise his gums. As he noted, adversity and metals’ prices and Bernanke giving a speech do seem somewhat correlated. I wish I had the time to research that more in-depth (maybe a graph of gold vs Beige Book announcements would be a start, if anyone wants to do it…I’m trying to prepare an insurance claim right now…haven’t mentioned it yet, but I had a great deal of my coin collection stolen…heads up, everyone…photograph, inventory w/serial numbers, and then store that info in the cloud somewhere.)
Benb, John W. R., and Matthew, and others,
Love to read you guys’ response and your technical analysis. As I’ve said numerous times before, I feel like I’m back in the classroom and getting to learn from all of you and Big Al and Rog, AND it’s all FREE! I couln’t agree more with “Do your own Due Diligence”, because at the end of the day, you have to be confident of your buy/sell, and ultimately you have noone to blame but yourself. I’m very, very, careful and still make mistakes and bad decisions, BUT, I’m learning and getting better as I go. Thanks much to all of you.
Reo
From time to time we hear from some pretty frustrated folks on this blog. I suppose they listen in and read the blog here for MONTHS and then as soon as the markets drop they log in to add to the commentary within MINUTES.
I am no Goldbug. I began investing in PMs only as late as late 2009, half Bullion and half stocks. In general I am in the Green on my PM investments, even on a day like today, to the tune of 20-25%. This is only part of my investment strategy, but it has performed best over the timeframe. I too have felt frustrated, and my reaction has been to further educate myself on the art of trading some of the stocks, as I would have much handsomer profits had I been a bit more savvy and sold some along the way.
This site is part of my self-education. I appreciate it very much.
There will be better days and darker days than this along the way. There will be days you think you are a genius, and others when you think someone’s got it in for you. Last week, Jim Sinclair predicted that we were going to see daily volatility in the several hundreds, and it’s right on cue. (yes, that’s ‘daily’ volatility)
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/2/24_Jim_Sinclair.html
It’s called volatility and precious metals is a rough bull to ride. Oil and grains were pretty steady today; that says something. With the CNBC chorus signing funeral hymns for precious metals, you gotta know the end is nowhere is sight. When they start singing praises to PMs, that’s when I’ll get nervous.
At 3:11 Rog says “…these banks are puckered-up…” He did say pucker, and not something else, possibly more appropriate?
Radical but healthy, chart wise it’s not a problem, just retracing
Hi Martin, you bet its illegal, and guess what, nobody is going to do anything about it. Ask mf global customers. Thats because the cftc is in jp morgans pocket.The way to end it is to remove the physical silver from the market. Best guesser I have found as to when its gonna happen is Ted Butler, subscribing to his work might help, but to be honust, if your into silver the ride is just getting started. Hold on, have faith, buy more. imho
Trader Rog –
I usually look forward to your technical take on the pm’s. However, today had nothing to do with an ABC correction. Nor did it involve wave 3 or wave 4. This was a premeditated and orchestrated takedown by the government and its highly compensated delegate, JP Morgan.
The enabling media would like us to believe that the market was disappointed that Bernanke’s testimony was not going to address intentions of QE3 and for that reason,with the precision and force of a skilled military strike, the financial markets decided all at once to unload on commodities but especially on gold and silver. When it comes to detecting a problem with fiat currency (like the US dollar), the canary in the coal mine is gold and to a lesser extent silver. With the canary getting a sensory overload on the dollar multiplying itself like rabbits, the government needed to sidetrack the canary.
going down fast. Your right of course about the nonsense given by Roger, and Roger don’t take this offensively, just once admit you don’t know.
But lets put aside everything on the short term and look forward two years from now. What does our “Future Self” tell us when looking back two years to today? Our future selves won’t even remember Feb 29, 2012 and if it does we will be telling ourselves “how stupid was I”? James Grant a smart man from the Bronx has said many times, “The US will go forward to a Gold Standard, this is not a promise, nor is it a threat, it is going to happen”. Two years from now we will witness this taking place, it is going to happen.
Hard to believe any politician alive would want a gold standard. Same goes for wall street.
Hi Barry.
I agree its never going to happen. All problems have occured since it was abolished, countries should only print money for the gold & silver assets they hold. How many bankrupt countries have we had since, and how many are yet to come!
Hi Big Al,
I agree with most writers. Nothing to worry about.
I remember the Aden sisters saying buy gold before it goes above $1200. Last chance. They were right.
Bought gold 12/08/2010 @ $1394.
Bought gold 06/13/2011 @ $1520.
Bought gold 12/16/2011 @ $1738.
This what I did , every six months the base of gold rises about $200.00
This physical gold, vaulted.
Best to all.
Paul,
Not sure how you choose your entry points, but those look like good buying times to me. Good work.
Hi Al, Roger – guys this happen today on news `North Korea agrees to nuclear moratorium` some 13 hours ago, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-17208755 by US State Dept. with this happening and its at the end of the month investor`s probably sold their positions to get some profit for some end of the expenses. Face it people invest like they do in other issues, precious metals has out performed better than the other stock market, haven`t they. And many investor`s do buy for a short position anyway, hoping to make a killing-so tp speak.
sorry typo error …to get some profit for some end of the *month expenses.
Ben B Question: Why not just sell the longs? Becasuse they want to hold them and use selling puts or cutting-reducing positions that can be used as finer, manipulation tools for better and faster trading-in both directions during the same trading day. Some of these really exotic trades would boggle your mind. I’ve been doing this stuff for 20 years and some techie continues to amaze with sophisticated strategies that would make a rocket scientist blush. From my experience this kind of trading will ruin you. Keep your trades simple. That is our trading theory and what we are teaching in the class, ..first time ever next month in Tempe Az just before the Wealth Conference where we are also speaking. Call Linda Gorman at 800-494-4149 or 480-820-5877 for an experince you won’t forget. NEXT: Addressing statements on trading volatility: Yes, today’s action wsa just not end of the month close outs. WE HAVE REPEATEDLY SAID AS THE PRICES GO HIGHER IN METALS THE TRADING, RANGES GO WIDER IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. THE NEXT REALLY BIG ONE IS A PULLBACK FROM GOLD $2450 TO $1923. OBSERVERS WILL SCREAM FIX FIX. ITS NOT. ITS TECHNICAL TRADING ADJUSTMENTS BASED UPON MATH AND OTHER NORMAL TRADING FACTORS. YOU ARE GOING TO SEE GOLD TRADING DAYS OF $150-300 DOLLARS PER DAY AND MORE. I AM CURIOUS IF THE TRADING PLATFORM CONTROLLERS WILL INSTALL DAY LIMITS= UP-LIMIT DOWN-LIMIT… SILVER USED TO HAVE A $1.50 DAILY LIMIT. NOW ITS MUCH WIDER WITH NO LIMITS. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH NO CRUMMY INTERFERENCE BY MANIPULATION ALTHOUGH WE’LL GET SOME OF THAT TOO, LIKE BUYING 10,000 S&P’s later sunday evening or on a Monday morning to prevent a DOWN MONDAY IN STOCKS. TINY TIM USED TO RUN THAT SCAM FROM HIS JOB IN THE NYC FEDERAL RESERVE AND HE WAS GOOD AT IT. NOW OTHERS DO THAT DIRTY WORK. – TRADERROG
Roger.
We you aware this takedown and shakeout was likely yesterday. Did you get caught with it?
I listen to your comment about the $108,000, 000 shorts. Did you advise your paid suscribers to sell yesterday? If this is the case I would like to sign up. I’m sure it wont cost $48,000 a day which is what it cost me yesterday. I only buy and sell physical silver bullion on our vault account in real time.
regards
Martin (UK)
If you want to email a reply to me rather than blog here its
buyer@uk-wholesale.net
ROGER
Are we to expect margin calls now to further exasperate the situation to the downside.
If you mean margin hikes, I say no. They’ll come when gold/silver are ending a big, long move higher. They will both be very over bought. Most won’t see it coming, just like last year.
However, at some point, the banksters will align themselves and their media with the trend and such shenanigans will cease. Note that they never raise margin requirements on treasuries no matter how extended they get. When they’re finally trying to bring in as many clueless bag-holders as possible, it would be counter-productive to continue to scare them out. And why would they want to once the miners get expensive (or at least less undervalued)? During the bull market in the general equities of 1982-2000, the last big shakeout was in 1987. Despite the market recovering to new highs within 2 years, most people didn’t get back in until they couldn’t take it anymore a decade later, if at all. The Dow then reached it’s highest real price ever at over 44 oz of gold. Before the crash of ’29, it never even achieved 20 oz. Blowing the biggest possible bubble is an art. 2008 was our 1987.
Thanks Roger. Definatly alot I dont know about trading. Wish I could go to your class but there is no way for me. Jim Sinclair is saying the same thing you are about trading ranges, I think the guys at gata/T Butler might have a point concerning manipulation
and I find it helps to blame manipulators when I loose. ‘;-)
Thanks for everything MR.Rog
Yep benb,
It is also more convenient to blame someone else, but I have a feeling that you do not do that!
Big Al
I’ve been following the Gold Silver Story since 2003…and my Father played the mining stocks in the late 70’s early 80’s run up. These guys have been saying for years how the gold Juniors are going to SKYROCKET..like back in the early 80’s…fall 1980 to be exact is when the peaked… AFTER gold peaked at 850 in January. Problem is the Market use to be SOMEWHAT more real. I bought shares when I was 16 years old and they sent them to you in the mail. Now it’s just one BULLSHIT manipulated casino…they naked short sell as many shares as they need and as much paper silver/gold as they want to get the desired result.
I don’t think will ever get a real run up in the shares..the %500 and more like 1980. Yes I bought and sold a lot of physical and still have some. But these constant stories about Junior stocks taking off..well after nearly 10 years I don’t think it’s happening. I just sell every time I have some profit…I would do so even more and be better off if I wasn’t influenced by all these PIE IN THE SKY…ROCKET TO THE MOON..BLAST OFF STORIES…you guys have no idea IF or WHEN gold stocks will ever go somewhere ..enough with the…WHEN GOLD GETS HERE (500,850, 1000, 1200,1500….now the prediction is $2000) gold stocks are going to BLAST OFF SO FAST ETC ETC ETC….are you trying to sell subscriptions or something??
Reo, You have to understand manipulation. I have been in this market, like your dad since the 60’s. I remember the late 70’s, before the internet, calling NY for the spot prices, running from coin store to coin store buying gold and silver under spot because they would not get a price update until the newspaper came out the next day. Yes, I still own those coins today.
Reo
In one Calgary company name I can explain why these small companies are disrespected: Bre-ex. These companies must prove themselves one by one and not in aggregate. Plus everyone in the precious metals market should know that gold and silver are treated as ancient forms of money that are not needed until the end of days to buy food and pay taxes. This concept is probably treated as a joke in economic classes.
If Roger says that the juniors are going up and I buy and the juniors go down, it is %100 my fault. Its a tough market but there would be no reward without suffering first.
Dan
Hi Dan,
I respect you for taking complete responsibility for your own actions.
Remember neither Roger not I give investment advice. We cannot because we are not registered investment advisers.
Big Al
Morning Reo,
I don’t know about “blasting off” but I do know that most of the shares I have purchased since August are up!
Corvus Gold $0.54 then and $0.94 today
ITH $5.25 then and $5.03 today (all over the board and certainly an exception for me. (Down)
NZ $1.04 then and $3.45 now
PHS.U $14 then and $15.32 now
Otis Gold $0.25 then and $0.21 now (Yep down a bit)
Hope I am not leaving any out as I am doing this from memory.
Big Al
Reo,
You’re emotional. Good. That makes you human and not Vulcan. I and family have some past memories similar to yours, and what Bobby mentions too (ah, the days of facsimile and Betamax, and a 16 foot C-band satellite dish in every pot).
Release your emotions in a few comments. We all do it. But try to answer your own questions, say, this time next week. You’re impatient right now, and that’s a function of the headline-a-minute news-infested world we live in. That, in essence, is the problem 98% of all investors suffer today. Even if we know we should be patient or strategic in following an investment operation’s steps, we are swamped with more irrelevant news that seems relevant, and try to act on it.
By the way, no one here is saying you should buy 100% mining stocks, but buying some is a good idea. When value investing, or hedging — and that’s what investing in miners really is all about — the wait times can be long. Because that’s incongruent with today’s expectations of 20% returns every week, it seems like things are moving slowly. Remember when earning 10% PER YEAR seemed astronomic? There are people who trade these markets, and they can do well, but that’s trading, not hedging or value-investing.
John,
“Headline-a-minute news-infested world we live in.” Love that phrase. That’s why there’s a golf channel to watch when I get sick of those headlines and the “Merkel Effect” that sends our markets on a bender every time she comes up with something good or bad.
Seize the day and I am responsible for my own affairs. Sorry, didn’t look up the cool Latin phrases for those two axioms.
Dan
Why thank you Dan. And I absolutely love the golf channel. I know, I should get out more, but if I cannot get to Torrey Pines or Hawaii on my own, the next best thing is watching it!
Oh, and Carpe Diem is the first. Not sure what ‘personal responsibility’ is in Latin.
mia culpa?
Hi Dan,
I couldn’t agree with you and John W. R. more.
Thanks much.
Hi John,
A big Amen to your comments, outstanding as usual!.
Best
Hi Reo,
For what it’s worth, and I’m no expert, but I believe it was Jesse Livermore who said that he did not make his money from “buying”, but from “sitting”. Waiting is the hardest part of investing. We are impatient. We want the big runup now, or by at least tomorrow. I know, I’m in the same boat with you, but if you are convinced that this train is headed for the gorge, then gold and silver and the miners are your only sure bet. Hang in there and wait. You will be rewarded. They, the manipulators, are trying to demoralize all of us and throw us of this bull.
Sinclair says it all in his interview today:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/3/1_Jim_Sinclair.html
We are going to see volitality and a lot of it. If the heat of the kitchen is too hot, then you must get out.
Hi Al,
Thought I would welcome you into today with the news that ECB has given Eurobanks €520bn in 3 year 1% loans………this for a body that is not constitutionally allowed to meddle in soverign debt loans etc. I suspect that a number of these banks will park this money into italian bonds at 5%. The very clever bankers will thus deserve staggering bonuses in 2012 on their wonderful, insightful , knowledge that us mere mortals do not have!
My portfolio went up 40% in jan/feb after the first Ltro deal……hoping for more of the same after Ltro ii .
I am loving your show.
Hemal