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James is right. Futures and options expire next week, not this week, as I wrongly mentioned elsewhere. My mistake.
Ohhh! Way to go Matthew! Geeez! You’re slacking! And I just made my trade determinations off what you said earlier this week!
LOL!!! Just kidding!
To me it looks like a real bottom and I got in on some call options for a couple of the producers yesterday at GREAT PRICES and I am up nearly 64% on one of them!
Take care Matthew and stay in there!
I guess I am slacking. Maybe “slipping” is a better word! The scary thing is that I don’t even know how I read the calendar wrong. Beer-induced blurred vision, maybe?
Great timing on those options! I guess you’re a crazy bull like me!
Crazy bull, no…maybe. But I just know a bargain when I see one! Put in a stink bid just before market open yesterday and they got filled about ten cents below my price, from there, they just kept moving up and today they are UP BIG! Wooo Hoo! Raising my stop to lock in some profits. Buying some physical if these trades turn out nice!
Nearly the whole sector is a bargain at this point! That’s what makes a bull a crazy bull!
Mark Alan, and Matthew,
You guys are gutsy and I like your ability to gauge, evaluate, and then make the move to go in. When it works, it’s a beautiful thing to be a part of and watch. Good for you.
You would have absolutely no problem if the blurred vision was “wine induced”. Take it from an old pro!
I don’t know, Al. The last wine tasting I attended turned into a wine DRINKING! The next day, I wished I had stuck to beer!
Well, the deal on drinking beer and wine is this: if you throw down a couple of bottles of cheap red wine, you never sober up and you can forget the blurred anything.
Congratulations Mark A.
We are across the lake from you right now and, I have to say, what a beautiful morning in Seattle!
to error is human….to forgive is devine….
A very true statement, Mr In!
can yoiuplease explain to me how these options work. I have to withdraw some funds from my PM to invest in my home and so I would like to invest in options. If you are going to invest or have a suggestion with of course an explanation send me an e-mail.
I notifying you however you have to take me by the hand
Thank you Joe. email@example.com
Good Morning Matthew,
What a beautiful morning here in Seattle!
James also called today’s little “rally”!
Pretty smart guy!
Absolutly no talk of the U.S. debt situation. There are way too many aftermarket unknowns ,such as Iran , Europe , U.S. economy and everyones favorite the coming inflation party. The emotional basket case of the market is reflected in the gold price.
You got that right “Other big Al”
No talk in this particular conversation, but it certainly is foremost in my mind!
I checked with a large volume dealer yesterday. He’s having difficulty getting AG and to a lesser extent, AU
We heard plenty of those claims last year, I’ll just call it the Lansing tune. At this time, there is no “lack of physical” gold or silver, period. It’s just that the dealer you consulted obviously didn’t front-order when prices were high. So now, there’s a delay in transport, and if you intend to demonstrate, as Sprott did, that ordering extraordinary amounts of a product causes delays, a delay in production. So what? You could probably do the same with Osmium bars or Rhenium bars.
PS to the above: Very few sellers but client buyers are ordering for future delivery a week or two out.
Pretty interesting developments, Dai Uy.
Dollar cost average, wash, wash, rinse, repeat…dollar cost average, wash, rinse, repeat………………
Ive always liked Mr.Turks idea of saving in metal instead of currency.
This is the method I recommend to people interested enough to wonder about gold/silver.
Most people seem to know they should be saving a little bit throughout there lives,
when i explain the advantages of saving money instead of currency alot of times they end up understanding the advantage.
Al, did you ever get a chance to contact Bill Still?
I am sorry, I believe I completely forgot. Please resend the information.
Not Bill Still again! G. Edward Griffin is spot-on in his analysis of his stance.
I read the first paragraph,and yes I agree with it. The issue with a fiat currency is it requires a government with integrity,therefore not possible at this time in my opinion
But Mr. Still knows a great deal and I believe his observations would be most interesting,informative and provide excellent discussion material for this well informed group.
He is also running for president as a libertarian,who knows what insights he can add.
Governments are made up of people. People are by nature sinful and therefore self-centered, thus when they have the power they will always do what benefits them. So, fiat currency systems will never work. That’s why a currency or money system must be always either the metals themselves or at the very least directly tied to hard money. People will always act like people. They will let you down and fail you at some point. This is why our founders established 3 branches of government, with the idea that they could keep each other in check. But, alas, even with a brilliant system, evil people have figured out how to circumvent those safeguards. So again, the system, no matter how brilliantly conceived and hatched, is no better than the people who run it.
I understand, thing is it was a fiat system that made the U.S. as strong as it got. (greenback) Worked until presedent Wilson alowed the federal reserve.
Anyway im not saying a fiat system would work now,but they have many times i think until it is corrupted,thing is a gold system can be too.might even be easier to corrupt gold backed currency. I dont have the anwsers to the question but they are interesting questions.
HI again benb,
It is all about what is called “freewill”.
Too bad folks don’t always use it properly.
I don’t really disagree with anything you said, however, let me throw this out and see what your thoughts are. If my memory is correct, our currency/money was tied to the price of gold until 1933, and then to a lesser degree up until 1971, when Nixon completely unhinged the dollar from gold. I have heard experts say that when he did that, it unleased the money printers to go to printing with virtually no restraint. I think inflation really started to accelerate after that. Not sure if my history is entirely correct or not(not a historian), so would look forward to your and others input. Best
You are absolutely right; and boy was inflation unleashed after Nixon. Gold has been the best protector of purchasing power since. As I mentioned here recently, the Dow is up about 14 fold since 1971, while gold is up over 40 fold -and without all the risks!
I promise, benb. Mr.Still will definitely get a call from Big Al.
Hope you get an interview. Just thinking,he has insights about banks that most of us wont have, Knowing their intentions and where they are in their plans could be profitable for some people on this site. Heck, ya never know.
good luck Al.
Thank you for the confimation. Wow, that is quite a comparison showing gold the superior hedge by far.
Off to SAM (Seattle Art Museum) for an exhibition. Be back with all you great folks late afternoon.
Enjoy Gauguin!…..hopefully it won’t be as crowded as last year’s Picasso exhibit.
Al is going for the wine trays.
Okay Mr. O’Neil,
They did not have a single wine tray there.
Boy, was I disappointed!
Bummer! It would have been 1 cut above wine -in-a-box anyway.
It was an amazing exhibit!
What about the ultimate contrarian play of going long on U.S. bonds? Come on, who’s with me? Just kidding.
Matt, you might not want to kid. We had a brief spike up in rates but they’re moving back into the range they came from. Bill Gross, the “bond king,” last year really messed up on his move out of bonds but interestingly, he increased his portfolio in treasuries by 8% this year. If the conventional stock markets turn down like I think they may this spring, people will flee back into bonds again. Just a thought. We should know soon on whether bonds will rally again.
Do you remember the classic Little Rascals where the evil son-in-law is putinng Gramma in the County Poor Farm only to find while rifling her mail that she had 20 Gold Bonds with The Imperial Steel Company, then by circumstance the the 100K bonds (100K in 1931 money) wind up balast on Chubby’s home made kite….then the fun begins. A classic entertaing look at The First Great Depression with maybe a lesson….if any bonds….. maybe the look should be to Coporate instead of Government Debentures. Take a look and bring back chilhood memories……why not!, to wit:
ECONOMICS LESSON FROM THE LITTLE RASCALS:
At the 20:06 point in the film Grama goes to find a cop as he leans on a Gasoline sign……
1931 gasoline 9.90 cents. Less than 1 mercury dime a gallon.
Okay, less than one mercury dime. Let’s translate a gallon of gas today into silver. Kind of tells an interesting story doesn’t it!
Hi Al, In regards to the Gold Market I would like to quote Will Rogers, The Great American Humorist, ” You can be on the right track but if you just sit there you will be run over.” I also want to say that you have great people skills and that is something that most aren’t born with but struggle to develop if and when they see the need.
Many thanks, Shawn. I should also really thank God!
Al, interesting markets today. What was interesting was the disparity in moves between the conventional markets (DOW, S&P,etc.) and the gold market. Both increased but gold % wise increased more. If I’m correct that the conventional markets are beginning to break lower, then the precious metals should follow but if they’re decoupling, the move down for the precious metals should not be as great. Everyone on CNBC business channel are hyping higher prices in the conventional markets. Did you notice the breakdown of palladium prices yesterday. Also, copper looks like it’s ready to go. I’m betting oil goes in the next 3 weeks. Theoretically, this should be good for companies bottom lines, but I believe the breakdown in commodities is a signal that the global economy is weakening. Hardly anyone is mentioning this. Just a thought.
I’m betting gold and the conventional markets will move up together for the next week or three. Then, when the conventional markets roll over, the miners (HUI/XAU) might fall 5-8% or so before reversing and heading higher. That will finally set the stage for the breakout we’ve been waiting for.
Whatever happens, superb values exist in the miners right now. GDXJ has already retraced it’s entire move that began in the summer of 2010. That’s in dollars. In terms of gold, it is much lower. In fact, measured in gold, GDXJ has just precisely retested the lows reached in December. I believe we have what will be a double bottom. It is also much lower in terms of cash flow.
All the current fear is bullish and irrational. All the risk has been wrung out.
Matt, check out the gold miners bullish percent index. Based on that gold miners have further to fall.
It is actually very oversold. In July/August of 2010, just before a big rally in the entire sector that saw First Majestic fly from $3 to $25 in a matter of months, it was 45. Today it’s 24. With the proximity, time wise, to the low of 10 in December, this looks like a bullish retest. The miners took out their lows price wise, but not sentiment wise. We’re at or near a bottom in my opinion.
I have to agree with Matthew on this one, sorry Richard. I do think there is a decoupling going on between the metals and the markets, but I honestly think it will be to the upside for the metals. The markets still show signs of life in that they want to move up. I don’t know…I just can’t shake this feeling that they will push the S&P to 1455 and the DOW to 13,600 and then start yelling; “Everything is great guys! Step back in!” THEN we will have all hell break lose, but it shouldn’t be massive like in 2008…controlled is more like it, with a few days of hair pulling.
To me the miners look strong for at least the next two months…just my opinion.
You have a good point regarding commodities!
Couple of things…
1. We all know the markets are “rigged” so why does everyone get freaked out everytime they come in and smash the metals?…If you look at a long term chart for gold and silver…this is nothing more than an ordinary correction on the charts…even though it may have been precipitated by the manipulators…THE PRICE is the “bottom line”…doesn’t matter who or what drives it…bottom line still remains…the price is the price…and on the charts…this looks like normal trading that occurs from time to time…perhaps Roger can explain this in better terms than I can.
I got tuned into the “metals story” in 2005…gold was around $430 and silver was about $7.80 at the time…look where they both are today…everyone is always waiting for “the moon shot” to happen…it may not work out that way…it may take time fighting the headwinds of the manipulators…going back and forth as it progresses upwards…yes the fundamentals haven’t changed…so why are we all reacting to what we know is how these things now trade?…until events and circumstances get the manipulators out of the way…the normal market forces can’t take over in these markets (or all the others for that matter)…so how about we all “relax” and thank the good Lord that we have this opportunity and take these dips as “buying opportunities” when they present themselves as we all know that we should…this is the way the game works…life is tough sometimes…GET A HELMET!!!
2. I was listening to a radio show over the internet Bob Chapman was on and said that apparently some U.S. senator or congressman (what’s the difference anymore besides Ron and Rand Paul?)…is trying to introduce legislation into law to reintroduce the DRAFT in the States.
If you think the 99 vs. 1% is just getting started…wait until they try and get this passed…and if they do…look out…you guys better get ready down there ….and fast…they are setting up for something major as many of us already know…the laws being introduced in the last few months now target any U.S. citizen that the State deems to be a “belligerent” with no due process…bang…your gone as if you were a terrorist for protesting or speaking out…last week Obama signs into law that they can sieze all your property and push you into their service if they decide to declare a “state of National Emergency”…this could fall under many catagories…and now the introduction of the move to reinstate the DRAFT.
I would suggest everyone start getting the Boomers off their comfortable asses and into action…don’t leave this to the kids or anyone else to fight…this is everyone’s mess in every country…”Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country”
Peace to all….eh?
Yeh Bruce, peace to all?
Regarding your comments on precious metals, I simply have the philosophy to continue investing so that I am able to average.
Regarding some of the actions of the govt., I will say I am concerned. Maybe that is because I am an old fart!
Be careful with what Mr. Chapman has to say. We already have “Select Service” in this country. Mr. Chapman has some VERY questionable claims at times and often comes up with some great and wild “ideas”. A good trader and savvy with the markets but other than that….I would take what he says regarding anything else with a LARGE grain of salt.
You are right about SS and the implications are clear, but the draft was done away with in 1973. Since then, service has been voluntary, not mandatory.
I don’t closely follow Chapman, and have never been a subscriber, but, based on what I do know of him, I count him as one of the good guys.
When listening to him, one must keep in mind the words of Arthur Eddington:
“Not only is the universe stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine.”
Exactly Matthew! I know Mr. Chapman is on our side, but so is the “London Trader” from KWN. But, I am not saying he is a person of bad intention; what I am saying is he has a tendency to say more than what is REALLY there and expresses his “theories” into reality all too often. But he is very knowledgeable and very good at what he does. I find him entertaining and somewhat informative.
Point well taken.
I like it. great point!
Al…I want to talk to you …I tried to email you before under a different “handle”…no response…if I email you from my address you have now…will you respond?
Of course, send it to firstname.lastname@example.org
How do we get the word out regarding comment#2?
Maybe if everyone on this website who agrees would copy and past this statement to an email and send it to 20 people and ask them to do the same?
Any other suggestions?
I would suggest that regarding any information from Bob, you simply utilize his site.
Here is the link to where I found this…it is in the 2nd half of the show during the commercial break…go and click on WEDNESDAY’S show…that’s when they talk about the proposed draft legislation:
Go here and scroll down until you see “This Week’s Shows” about 3/4′s of the way down the page and click on WEDNESDAY.
I listened to this on Windows Media Player…at 34:13 they come back from the break…Chapman finishes his pitch for his newsletter and it starts about Iran not using the U.S.D as currency…this lasts a couple of minutes and then the statement comes about the DRAFT introduction @ 35:34 into the program…Chapman makes the statement about the DRAFT and they discuss it from there…I would suggest you listen to the whole second half of the show and the first half as well …Alfred Adask is the host and like Al and Roger…he is “no fool”…all of these men know their stuff and should be appreciated for their contributions to everyone…just remember folks…we get this information “for free”…”for now”…how long we are able to listen to shows like Al’s or anyone elses is now becoming highly “questionable”…or how long we get to post on any forum without the threat of “retribution”…
Here’s the link one more time:
…the other two items that I mentioned are all over the internet…just Google them and something should come up to link you to both pieces of what I was discussing…I’m scared…I truly admit it…and no…my tinfoil isn’t on just “a little too tight”… we all have to “stand up now”…or it is going to be too late for everyone…Canada is just one step behind the States…this is a “global” problem…they are losing power…people are waking up to what they have been up to…get dialed in…start surfing the web and You Tube…educate yourself…this is no longer the domain of the “whack jobs” …this is for real.
Is this the post you are referring to?
Again, read my post below or above wherever it comes up.
As I said I was not aware of the moderation situation and now I am.
Al…are you going to keep my last posting in “moderation” forever?…come on man…it’s decision time!
I had absolutely no idea that it was in moderation. I leave all this up to Sarah. I am going there right now! 8:28 a.m. on Saturday.