Market Trends – Thu 12 Apr, 2012

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Roger Wiegand

  1. On April 12, 2012 at 11:46 am,
    Matthew says:

    Hi Roger,
    The HUI gapped up this morning while GDX did not. Any comments on the significance here? Do you think we will see the gap filled? Given the low volume and lack of excitement in the buying today, it seems we just might test support once more.

  2. On April 12, 2012 at 12:22 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    Noticed a lot of producers popped today, I didn’t see any gaps on the miners and gold did what I like to see it do – drift slowly lower the “London Fix” and then move up during most of the morning hours. I would like to have seen gold close ABOVE $1685 but that didn’t happen. We may see profit taking tonight and tomorrow but it is tuff to say. I would LOVE to see gold close above the 200 DMA tomorrow and that still might happen as the U.S. DOLLAR IS STARTING to turn down.

    With all the news coming out of Europe, Middle East, and the “slow awakening” of “Joe Six Pack” to the fact that all is NOT well, we may go higher. But caution needs to be used here because I am already seeing “joyous enthusiasm” from certain gold bugs. This could be a head fake since volume wasn’t exactly great.

    stay frosty

    • On April 12, 2012 at 12:35 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Most of my positions are up between 3 and 12%. Three are down about 1-2%.
      What’s your take on the HUI’s gap up this morning? It’s all of 1.44 points. Do you think it gets filled? Heck, maybe it’s an error that gets fixed after the close.

  3. On April 12, 2012 at 12:49 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    Well Marc,

    The easiest way to find out is to look into which stocks make up the HUI and which ones are the LARGEST weighted in the index. Then look at each one of those companies to see who has the gap. It might be just one, or could be several. If this is the case, then more than likely the gap will get filled but it will not effect ALL gold stocks. Then again, it just could be that all the gold stocks responded well and the calculation of the index caused a gap.

    • On April 12, 2012 at 12:53 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I totally agree that it will not affect most stocks, especially the juniors. But it is fun to trade the seniors as a group, in which case the gap might matter.

  4. On April 12, 2012 at 12:55 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    Yep! The safest way to trade sometimes. I had a REALLY NICE move on ANV today. I got REEEEEEAAALLLLYYYY lucky on that one too. I got in within a few cents of the bottom. Can’t do that very often.

    • On April 12, 2012 at 1:19 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The bigger gaps in the index today belonged to: GG – .17; EGO – .18; and GOLD – 1.17
      AEM and NGD came in at .03 and CDE at .04. The question is not only whether they get filled, but when. AZK took two months to fill a gap from Dec. while KAM.V took three months. Both went substantially higher before doing so.

      • On April 12, 2012 at 2:40 pm,
        Mark Alan says:

        Hey Matthew

        This makes sense. GOLD and GG had some bad news come from some of their South American and African areas but it is getting resolved. BUT LOOK AT THE GAPS TO THE DOWNSIDE!!!! WHOOOOOAAAAA NELLY! There is some serious space there to be filled. I think that you will probably trade lower tomorrow if gold just stagnates on Friday and then your gaps may be filled – either do from algo trading, or just people who think that it isn’t really a bottom.

        Whatever happens, your technicals and volume should tell you what is really going on.

        • On April 12, 2012 at 2:50 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Yup, and volume today was unimpressive in most of the juniors (sub $100M MCAP).

  5. On April 12, 2012 at 1:06 pm,
    Dan, calgary says:

    If your shares didn’t go up today I would be looking at a rebalance of your portfolio. I sold out to completely cash a week ago and am buying in a bit now. Have already sold some of my buys from earlier this week. Have fun(?) trading. Couldn’t resist playing some of the oversold conditions.


    • On April 12, 2012 at 1:14 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      Hey Dan

      Yep, got to watch the moves. I was also watching the silver stocks and most didn’t really move much, but I think that won’t happen UNTIL silver really breaks strongly over $35 and then can break and hold above $37. Be a lot of good trades when it does. Strange to say but cash is definitely “the prince” right now, as gold is the KING.

      • On April 12, 2012 at 1:45 pm,
        Dan, calgary says:

        Hi Mark,

        The Fed gave the impression of deflation for a couple of months to knock the stuffing out of the gold stocks and for the money to flow into the big markets. I think this will end badly as the financial elastic is at its’ maximum tension already. The question is; do they know that Dec 21, 2012 is the end and “we are all dead in the end anyways!” is true or are they playing off of the public’s fear of this event or do they just not give a hoot and are just greedy meanies or are they on the wrong path and lie to themselves because Rhodes and Carnagy (sic) got it all wrong.


        • On April 12, 2012 at 2:36 pm,
          Mark Alan says:

          hey Dan

          I completely agree. But I think that when the general market begins to tank the gold stocks will go with it, but I honestly feel they may not either 1) go down as far: or, 2) If they do go down as far, they will be the FIRST to rally and rally strong!

          God it’s good to be alive!

          • On April 12, 2012 at 2:57 pm,
            Dan, calgary says:

            I think Bob Hoye has it right. Gold stocks will go up and down with the big market but end up much higher in the end. Silver stocks will have trouble launching upwards until the economy proves it is strong, paper silver market crashes and physical rises and/or gold stocks drags them up; probably this year.

            We live in exciting times indeed.


  6. On April 12, 2012 at 1:25 pm,
    Dan, calgary says:

    I think this summer will be THE time to get in and stay in for a ride. I look for QE or the like in August to ramp up to the US election and a republican win. This website is a great source of ideas, information and concepts. Thanks Al, Rog and Mark and Matthew and others. Huge spring snowflakes coming down hard in Cowtown!


  7. On April 12, 2012 at 2:29 pm,
    Dai Uy says:

    Trader Rog:

    You mentioned that wheat has been hurt by the cold weather and prices are up. Would that be hard Sping wheat or soft white winter which we grow? Ours looks great in the field after a mild winter and excellent moisture during the past 4 weeks.

    Any other farmboys on this blog?

  8. On April 12, 2012 at 3:12 pm,
    benb says:

    Dai, Im not a farmer, but I was talking to a woman (calgary) that had some acres, the price was rising so I figured she had hit paydirt. Nope, she told me they were getting less for it. Go figure. I watched a show on tv where some canadian farmers were warning about monsanto, the farmers were saying 20-30 years because of the seeds monsanto is going to end up owning everything. The farmer was trying but hadnt found a way to stop them. Same show was saying it is Ethiopia that has the varieties of seed the world needs.

  9. On April 12, 2012 at 3:18 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    Yo Dai Uy!

    Fields looked pretty sick about four weeks ago and then KABOOM! The thunderstorms started coming in and dropping rain. A nice slow rain over several days – off and on throughout the four weeks – and even today. Wheat looks fantastic here! And we couldn’t have asked for a better way to have it! Cool temps, slow rainfall, ground saturating evenly. The wheat is getting close to heading out soon (about another three weeks) and the weather man says this could continue for the next three weeks, off-and-on. We have winter wheat here.

  10. On April 12, 2012 at 3:41 pm,
    Dai Uy says:


    I viewed the same program on TV about 4 months ago. IMO, Monsanto is the scum of the earth run by unconsciable bastards obtaining patents and royalties on wheat genetic modifications all over the world and Canadian and other courts have sided with them even when Monsanto seed blew on the farmers’ own land! Many farmers are being put out of business by Monsanto.

    The problem is going to need a Parliamentery or Congressional fix. Not quite a problem yet in my neck of the woods as our land grant University so far is doing the majority of genetic seed modification and has not yet ripped and burned…..yet.

  11. On April 12, 2012 at 3:47 pm,
    Dai Uy says:


    In what part of the country do you reside? Our place is in Eastern Washington(State) Pleased to hear that wheat in your area is doing well.

    • On April 12, 2012 at 4:34 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      Central U.S. Great Plains states.

  12. On April 13, 2012 at 6:50 am,
    Reo says:

    Sell in May and go away is next…get in Gold and Silver sometime in July for the Fall run up

  13. On April 13, 2012 at 8:35 am,
    roger wiegand says:

    Roger: when Bob Hoye talks take my advice listen well. I follow seven top analysts to check my personal work and Bob Hoye is near the top. Also you never see her work much but Louise Yamada is acknowledged to be the top technical trader in the world. Her letter is very costly being mostly bought by institutions. Louise was the World’s Champion Technical Trader winning that Championship 4 years running. For this week our recommendations on shares were starting to rise or finally quit selling. A bottom appears in but the current gold rally is rather mild. There might possibly be a third rally for the first half of 2012. It happened at least once before in the past few years. Today Friday is 4 wave down (mild) and the weekend and or monday is an up day. It might some nasty news from europe to move gold even faster. Lord knows they have an abundance of that. WATCH SPAIN FOR THE NEXT IMPLOSION – Traderrog

  14. On April 15, 2012 at 9:43 am,
    roger wiegand says:

    regarding the wheat thing. Our reports way USA winter wheat was hit hard with cold weather. Our stance is most grains are very low on reserves and prices will rise. Further, the demand is higher and China is way behind 2012-2013 needs. they are smart buyers and jump in when prices are lower to buy. I SEE AN EXCELLENT CHANCE OF GRAIN RATIONING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 MONTHS OR EVEN SOONER …NEXT, YOU WILL SEE HUGE INFLATION WITH $5.00+++ gasoline in the usa and food prices rising like a rocket- Traderrog