Al's Insights – Mon 16 Apr, 2012

Today’s Daily Editorial – What Big Al and Marc think.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show


Featuring:
Al Korelin

Comments:
  1. On April 16, 2012 at 4:38 pm,
    Karen says:

    Hi Marc,
    Great interview. I could not agree more. Our debt is 15 trillion and we have QE to infinity. We are in for some really rough times.

    • On August 26, 2012 at 9:44 pm,
      Azer says:

      Mike Miller Posted on As someone who works in clnihtog retail I can safely say it’s rare to even find cool comic related shirts at all. Let’s hope the trend catches and you can get you phoenix shirt and maybe I can get my hands on a Blue Lantern shirt

  2. On April 16, 2012 at 5:06 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Great interview Marc. A “mathematical certainty” is right, and the big money doesn’t want anyone to figure that out. Violent volatility will sure make some question their own certainty about anything.

    • On April 16, 2012 at 9:14 pm,
      Marc says:

      Bingorama…Matthew…right on…as usual
      Marc

  3. On April 16, 2012 at 6:25 pm,
    Jerry O^OTB says:

    TA….is not that hard to understand…….
    TA….TERRIFIC AUDIANCE…,everYone is TA….

  4. On April 16, 2012 at 6:31 pm,
    Clay says:

    Marc: Excellent and well put. Al, Thank you for your programs and work, I agree with both of you.

    When a person goes to the grocery store and looks at the oranges and apples, they consider the quality, price and which ones the want to buy. They do not compare or consider the technical stacking of the oranges and apples in the decision to buy or not. They consider fundamentals.

    Chart reading was renamed “technical” to sound more legitimate, is based on psychology and is subject to interpretation. If were to injure myself in a fall with a terrible pain in my leg, I would not accept a psychologist interpretation to do surgery or not, I would request a physician to decide what to do based on fundamentals.

    • On April 16, 2012 at 7:49 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Okay Karen, Clay, Matthew and In the Box,

      Who is next?

      Big All

    • On April 17, 2012 at 7:27 am,
      Marc says:

      Clay,
      I have read your comment here – multiple times now. And I must say, an excellent analogy!
      All the best,
      Marc
      When are you getting on the show! :)

  5. On April 16, 2012 at 6:42 pm,
    Sandrina Jirov says:

    Hi … I made a drawing of it below .. The earlier triangle (purple) was talked about not just by me in December when it was formed and I think that’s why I was so interested in the new one (green). The red arrow marks the break out of the first one. I think these charts can be helpful, just not sure how helpful.. ha ha

    http://i43.tinypic.com/dc623n.jpg

    • On April 16, 2012 at 6:53 pm,
      Peter says:

      Hey, isn’t that also known as the “pennant formation.” If the stars line up right, it will resolve to the upside.

      • On April 16, 2012 at 7:06 pm,
        Sandrina Jirov says:

        It’s considered a symmetrical triangle .. Two trend lines converging, ie, support and resistance are converging so price will eventually have to break past one of them. A pennant is a more short-term pattern. It’s a smaller triangle covering usually 3 weeks. But they both represent decreasing volatility and converging trends.

        • On April 16, 2012 at 7:24 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I prefer the two falling wedge scenarios. Gold has broken out of the main one, and in retesting it has formed another, smaller one (which Hubbartt did not annotate):
          http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt040612/gold_fractals.gif

          The falling wedge is bullish because the lows do not descend at the same rate as the highs, signifying accumulation. A rising wedge is bearish because the highs do not rise at the same rate as the lows, signifying distribution.

          • On April 16, 2012 at 7:52 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Matthew,

            Man, you are so much further ahead in this area than I am!

            Big Al

          • On April 16, 2012 at 8:05 pm,
            Mark Alan says:

            That’s because Big Al only wants to play with his android instead of leaning T.A. LOL!!!

          • On April 17, 2012 at 6:17 am,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            Al,, you to can master the TAcharts, by the following…

            think in terms of a… WINE bottle,…

            first, “falling wedge”….is bullish…because the low quanity of alcohol can not rise to new highs, unless you accumulate a new bottle, thereby signifying accummulation , making you happy or full of bull.
            a “rising wedge”, makes you bearish, because your new high of intoxciaty ,did not rise due to your distribution to others, there by making you a” grumpy old bear”…

        • On April 16, 2012 at 7:31 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Sandrina,
          My explanation of a wedge was not directed at you. You obviously know this stuff.

          • On April 16, 2012 at 7:38 pm,
            Sandrina Jirov says:

            No problem… it’s an interesting chart, I appreciate you showing me it.

        • On April 16, 2012 at 7:52 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks again Sandrina,

          Best,

          Big Al

          • On May 5, 2012 at 10:33 pm,
            Angela says:

            Krishna Sir,Namaskar. This is Narayan Singh Gurung from London. Thank you very very much for your detailed iiomroatnfn about Ghandruk. May we hope to hear from you the same in the days to come as well. Finally please extend my and my family’s regards to Dharma Shila madam and children.Bye for now.

        • On August 27, 2012 at 12:19 am,
          Fariz says:

          Would love to know if you may be coming to Georgia for a book singing? I would love to meet you. Snow Angels was an amazing book, I am currently reading Last Night At The Lobster and I am planning on buying Songs for the Missing today.

      • On August 26, 2012 at 11:23 pm,
        Robert says:

        You didn’t post your specs. How much RAM, how many CPUs (and what speed), and how much meomry? Please also post the meomry consumption (RSS/VSZ) of each server.Also, it would have been useful to rate for each module the quality of documentation (Twisted’s, for example, exists but is abysmal), whether it supports generic TCP connections easily, and whether it supports SSL and peer certificate authentication.

    • On April 16, 2012 at 7:51 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thank you for providing this Sandrina,

      I am sorry, I am just an old guy who is trying to make the Champions Golf Tour and I just don’t understand.

      Please keep your comments coming.

      Best to you,

      Big Al

      • On April 16, 2012 at 8:50 pm,
        Sandrina Jirov says:

        Thx .. please don’t apologize! Good luck with the tour (I don’t know much about golf , ha ha)

        • On April 17, 2012 at 6:19 am,
          Jerry O^OTB says:

          don’t worry Sandrina….neither does BIG AL….

  6. On April 16, 2012 at 6:51 pm,
    Peter says:

    AMEN and AMEN!

  7. On April 16, 2012 at 7:00 pm,
    Jed Davis says:

    This chart says it all because it stands the test of time, economics, politics, natural disasters and geopolitical events — Gold chart 2000=2012:
    http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

    • On April 16, 2012 at 7:54 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I got an error message on two tries Jed,

      Please check this out.

      Best,

      Big Al

  8. On April 16, 2012 at 7:23 pm,
    Mark Alan says:

    Great interview Marc

    First of, Technical Analysis I find very helpful, ESPECIALLY IN ESTABLISHING A LONG TERM TREND. Fundamental analysis is the smart way to go IF YOU ARE A BUY AND HOLD kind of guy. With that being said, all stocks go through cycles – up and down-up and down -thus I like to use technical analysis to get an idea of when to take profits. The one thing I have learned about non-dividend paying stocks is that you really want to move into and out of them during the general market cycles. That’s where I find technicals EXTREMELY helpful. But hey! As long as you invest your money the way it makes you feel more comfortable, then by all means keep it up. That’s the best way to handle one’s money.
    Again, great interview and great words of wisdom!

    • On April 16, 2012 at 7:43 pm,
      Sandrina Jirov says:

      The most helpful of all is the double top … when I see a double top I run, not walk, for the exit. It’s also very logical … a stock rallies to price X, dips, and tries again to rally and can’t get past X … stands to reason investors will become discouraged and sell ..

      • On April 16, 2012 at 7:56 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Now Sandrina, that does make sense to me!

        Thanks,

        Big Al

    • On April 16, 2012 at 7:48 pm,
      Marc says:

      Mark A.,
      Thank you. I STRONGLY agree with your opening comments!

    • On April 16, 2012 at 7:55 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Yep Mark A,

      Marc is a very astute individual and certainly a valuable member of our family!

      Big Al

  9. On April 16, 2012 at 7:32 pm,
    Peter says:

    I would like to observe something.

    People tend to come down either on one side or the other on the subject of TA. They either tend to love it or dismiss it. Personally, I have an aversion to details. I deal in principles and concepts. Hence, TA isn’t for me. I see the fundamentally bullish case for gold and that’s what I run with.

    But what do chartists REALLY do? What is it the charts really reflect ABOVE ALL?
    Are the charts not simply a picture of the market’s psychology? Is the reason charting frequently DOES work not simply that human nature and emotions are to some extent predictable? When chartist make a prediction based on their charts, what they are unwittingly doing is putting the market on the couch. But since the study of human psychology is an art more than a science, so is TA. This is why sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t and is also the reason I don’t bother learning the ins and outs of TA (then there is lazyness). The return on that investment would not be reliable and high enough – in my humble opinion.

    The Fundamentalists:
    People like most of us here. We see the bullish long term case for gold and that’s all we tend to see (exaggerating a bit). We often get burned when the charts turn against us. We can’t believe that our beloved commodity (gold, in our case) could be on the verge of a major pullback when the fundamentals are so powerful. Rather, we are convinced that no such pullback could be in the offing because of the fundamentals we clearly (and rightfully) see.

    That being said, I don’t believe that this is what has been happening lately. The interventions are just too prevalent. Both, fundamentals and TA are clearly not working at this time. The pot’s been stirred so hard, so much water has been poured on the fire that it’s difficult to get a bearing on the situation because of all the smoke and steam.

    The Chartists:
    When they get burned, it is because they get caught with their pants down when fundamentals reassert themselves and GET BACK IN THE DRIVER SEAT. They are like fundamentalists in reverse. In their world actual REAL WORLD demand has fairly little to do with the price of a commodity. I learned that when I revolved around the oil sector. These people tend to be mesmerized by their charts. To them prices are not the result of a complex dance of many variables – variables that are always changing, dropping out of the picture temporarily, then suddenly returning, gaining or losing power, aligning themselves in unexpected ways. These variables interact with and influence each other and reduce TA to little more than a crap shoot about 50% of the time. If only we knew which 50% was the right 50%.

    I find TA worth paying attention to that’s why I listen to TR.

    That’s my two bits on it.

    • On April 16, 2012 at 7:59 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Right Peter, it is worth listening to.

      I agree, I just am very comfortable with fundamentals.

      Best,

      Big Al

  10. On April 16, 2012 at 7:33 pm,
    benb says:

    good interview, good advice.

    • On April 16, 2012 at 7:45 pm,
      Marc says:

      Hey all,
      Thanks for the encouraging words. I am just not a TA person. My words were a little strong about saying “forget about it”. To reiterate, and in fear of being redundant, I ONLY meant that in the long-term macro sense of the situation we are in. I will continue to learn everything you good folks have to offer. And your set of skills regarding all this stuff amazes me constantly and I am all ears and open to any constructive criticism that can be absorbed here. I will continue to say ” I KNOW what I DONT KNOW!” Thanks again and God Bless all of you kind people out there! :)
      Marc

      • On April 16, 2012 at 8:00 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Hi Marc,

        Thank you very much for your great contribution today!

        God bless,

        Big Al

        • On April 16, 2012 at 8:04 pm,
          Marc says:

          Big Al,
          You are quite welcome, my friend…the best to you, Kathy and the entire family!

      • On April 16, 2012 at 8:03 pm,
        Mark Alan says:

        Hey Marc

        I don’t think anyone here had hurt feelings of any kind. We all understand that people have “different strokes” Tha’ts what makes this forum so great! We can all come here to learn a thing or two…and hopefully without disdain or harsh criticism LOL!!! Keep learning Marc and STAY FROSTY!

        • On April 16, 2012 at 8:05 pm,
          Marc says:

          Thanks buddy!! :)

  11. On April 16, 2012 at 11:02 pm,
    castanheiro says:

    To all you fine people,
    I love listening to the dialogue. You all are part of the great, on-going education here at the Korelin Institute.
    For those that have not seen this 1 hour and 50 minute video by Bill Still on the hidden messages in the Wizard of Oz, here it is:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qIhDdST27g&feature=related

    • On April 17, 2012 at 5:23 am,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      c..hero…I have listened to both the money masters, and oz….there are some good point in the 3 hr. version in the money masters….take the time time and and listen
      to the long version….i think it will serve you well , in the long run…just my opinion,

      • On April 17, 2012 at 4:19 pm,
        castanheiro says:

        Thank you JerryO^OTB,
        Amen. I couldn’t agree more. I watched the “Money Masters” about a year ago. It is IMHO an excellent overview of monetary history. I would highly recommend it to anyone who hasn’t seen it yet.
        Thanks my friend

  12. On April 16, 2012 at 11:06 pm,
    Mike says:

    Americans are living under the rule of the most corrupt government in the world. If most individuals really knew what the U.S. government and big business has done and still is doing, right now, to undermine the basic human rights of peoples everywhere, they’d be shocked.
    http://www.thenation.com/blog/165077/koch-brothers-alec-and-savage-assault-democracy

    If you haven’t read Noam Chomsky’s book “Failed States: The Abuse of Power and Assault on Democracy,” then you should read it right away. It will open your eyes to what the U.S. government, regardless of which administration you want to look at, is really up to.
    http://www.amazon.com/Failed-States-Abuse-Assault-Democracy/dp/0805079122

    And. none of you have any power to change things, because that ability is well out of the control of any of you.

  13. On April 17, 2012 at 1:10 am,
    Irishtony says:

    Go to King World News………Charts by JOHN WILLIAMS……..I have to agree with everything he says.

  14. On April 17, 2012 at 2:58 am,
    MissiveDuTexas says:

    Marc and Al.

    I just listened to the discussion. I agree with Marc, as long as the long trend is maintained, we all know where PM will go.

    Now what if liquidity is squeezed out of the markets? What if all those who thought they could hold on for years suddenly need cash to settle deals and cover losses or margins? Gold and Silver would take a steep hit. That is what I mean when I say “they can pull the rug anytime they want”.

    And what if trade comes to a halt because of a liquidity squeeze, do you know how much inventory your local grocerie store has? Probably not more than three days if distribution channels slow down. Do you want to be one of those running to the store with all the other unprepared people once this realization sets in?

    There is a lot to think about here, friends. As Greenspan said “gold is the canary in the coal mine.”

    But don`t worry, Jim Sinclair says his intelligence reports say “QE to infinity”…

    The psychological profil of the sociopaths in control tells me the temptation to wreaking havoc with a liquidity squeeze is too enticing to ignore. So I think they`ll do it AT LEAST intermittently. This will have the added benefit of acclimating the people to shortages and be thankfullfor government intervention.

    • On April 17, 2012 at 6:55 am,
      Dan, calgary says:

      I am quite certain that this is why the TSX.V has been sinking lately. If the PTB drain money through margin calls the whole market falls due to motivated sellers. By proxy the PTB slam the junior gold and oil stocks and add insult to injury by being on the board of directors of large cap mining companies that do not buy up the juniors.

      I think the large-cap miners must have lied about their reserves so they don’t have to do take-overs when it appears they should. A few extra million ounces of reserve not released to the public can skew take-over demand.

      Dan

  15. On April 17, 2012 at 4:22 am,
    James says:

    From Bloomberg today – European Stocks Advance as Spanish Debt Demand Increases. Why on earth would demand for junk debt increase? Who is buying this debt? Do they remember the haircut Greece bondholders had to take? Deja vu all over again!

    • On April 17, 2012 at 6:26 am,
      Peter says:

      The ECB is more than likely doing stealth buying in the secondary markets. Then the news is “Spanish Debt Demand Increases.” NOT.

      This is all the more likely now that it’s come out that the previous Spanish gov’t has been cooking the numbers just as Greece had been. Lies, lies and more lies. Lies to infinity – and beyond!

  16. On April 17, 2012 at 4:32 am,
    MissiveDuTexas says:

    James – Because the politicians are doing what they`re told. When they don`t, JPM kicks the PM`s out and puts their better puppet in charge:

    Italy and Greece: Rule by the Bankers – “Technocratic governments” ruling on behalf of financial markets – by Michael Roberts
    http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=27637

    By the way, it would be nice to have guests from Europe on the show to see how fast things changed over the last year or two. I listen to several podcasts from all over the world. Greece, Ireland, Italy and now Spain have had their hope and standard of living drastically reduced. Pumping money in the system as well as fraudstarity measures have done nothing to change the curve. I guess once people have nothing left, the curve will flaten…

  17. On April 17, 2012 at 7:47 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    One more move down and I think the TSX.V will be done its’ correction. It will likely stop the bleeding around 1400 and then start a rebound. Could be any day now.

    Dan

  18. On April 17, 2012 at 12:23 pm,
    roger wiegand says:

    TA works for faster trading say under 90 days or for swing trading of a few days. The fundamentalilsts who are good at it are mostly old timers with very deep pockets who might go years without buying or selling anything. Its fine and it works. However, the markets are going faster and for those that trade at least twice a year or more you should look at TA as a tool. It takes some years to learn it well but the old chicago joke is this: Two traders argued over TA versus Fundamentals. The Fundamentalist says you cannot trade using TA. The TA trader said, come to my Mansion in Lake Forest and see my stable of exotic cars and i”ll prove how good TA is for trading – Traderrog

    • On April 17, 2012 at 12:53 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      You said it Trader Rog! But I still think it works great for long term as well, especially determining if a trend is changing or not.

      • On April 17, 2012 at 1:11 pm,
        Marc says:

        Mark A.
        I think raise an excellent point!

  19. On April 19, 2012 at 9:20 am,
    John W. Robertson says:

    Bit late to the party on this…nice hearing from you ‘directly’ Marc. Very good interview, and the Titanic story is one I had not heard.

    • On April 20, 2012 at 8:08 am,
      Marc says:

      Thanks John W.!
      All the best,
      Marc

    • On August 25, 2012 at 12:19 am,
      Alise says:

      I just saw the video/movie on quality blggiong & commenting and I am so impressed. I learned there is a lot more to blggiong. It’s not as easy as it appears to be. The 3rd grade class has done a wonderful job for modeling how quality comments should be written. Everyone should watch this video! I am going to post it on my facebook page.

  20. On May 8, 2012 at 5:43 pm,
    Masood says:

    143Thanks for some great information about links.. I have tried many times to some do flolow links.. but it takes a lot of time. Do you know anyone who can help out.. or where I can buy some assistance to get great links to my sites ?