Al's Insights – Sun 6 May, 2012

Big Trouble in River City

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Al Korelin

  1. On May 6, 2012 at 1:58 pm,
    Lynn - (male) says:

    Hi Al,

    Yes the captain of the ship is supposed to steer us into safer waters or at least batten down the hatches when a storm is approaching. And if he isn’t doing that, there is usually mutany aboard.

    So that leaves us with few choices. We either through the captain out into the water witht he sharks, or we move our investments elsewhere where the captain is on a safer course.

    The conventional stock markets do not seem safe to me by any means. The feds have far too tight of a grip on them –> <– there are some nice charts explaining how the feds purchase stocks and sells them. They print the stinking dollars! Or should I say "sinking"?


    • On May 6, 2012 at 2:00 pm,
      Lynn - (male) says:

      By the way, Happy Birthday! to your daughter.


    • On May 6, 2012 at 2:07 pm,
      Big Al says:

      That is why I have not added at all to that portion of our portfolio and I stay active in the resource sector.

      By the way, I passed your message to Sarah. Many thanks. I guess I will have to root for Wisconsin next year! (And, that is okay!)

      Big Al

      • On May 6, 2012 at 2:28 pm,
        Lynn - (male) says:

        Hey root for us now! We are in the middle of a recall effort sprung by the democRAT public sector unions. An absolute wasteful expenditure simply because they lost power.

        We have a primary here on Tuesday and then the recall election on June 5th. GO Walker!


        • On May 7, 2012 at 2:41 pm,
          Big Al says:

          There is no such thing as a wasteful expenditure when you have an endless supply of money! (Satire!)

          Big Al

  2. On May 6, 2012 at 2:09 pm,
    shawn says:

    Beware of the past, if you look at the late 18th century the rise of Napoleon was brought about by the failure of their fiat currency which spawned The French Revolution and then the ascendancy of the corsican captain who was an artillery genius and knew how to deal with the rabble.

  3. On May 6, 2012 at 2:21 pm,
    BJ says:

    Implicit in your rant is that Romney can steer the ship of state of the rocks. Maybe so, since he has proven able to change directions faster than a wind sock in the eye of a tornado. (How soon we forget.)

    Do you really think it matters anymore who ‘represents’ us in DC. Let see what’s happened in the last 20 years as America marched off the cliff into the abyss of totalitarianism.

    The repeal of Glass-Steigell,
    the Patriot Act,
    an unbridled FED debauching our money to perpetuate the corrupt,
    foreign wars fought on false pretenses,
    a Supreme Court giving corporation that operate through privilege of licensing equal rights and a superior voice over we the people,
    plus other acts of our elected duopoly to steal from the people their rights, their money, and their future.

    You know what–it all costs money…

    Now come the Republicans, like skunks in the elevator crying out, “who done it”, carping about tax cuts. Well, all those tax cuts were there during the free fall of the last decade. The problem is, they never cut spending. And before you carp about raising the debt ceiling yet again, remember the Sen McConnell (R) as Senate Minority Leader cut a deal last summer so that it takes a super majority to DENY an increase in the debt ceiling. I love ya, Big Al, but thou doth protestith too much!

    • On May 6, 2012 at 3:14 pm,
      Vortex says:

      Oh………the show must go on!

      The theatrical speeches have been written and proof read, the sound-bites and fake political dialog has been honed to perfection, and the camera flashes and structured photo ops have been rehearsed to come off as an academy award political stunner equivalent to James Cameron’s futuristic Avatar.

      The political trophy wives have their new dresses, the latest new high heel shoe’s and the lipstick is ready to go. The duped and pawned children of the political oligarchy stand and clap in solidarity as the pageantry and circumstance unfolds. They smile and show their lovely white smile as they say to one another in confidence……..its good to be on top.

      Of course the, selected male puppet master’s of the political fantasy game in Romney and Obama have the latest $5,000 dollar suites, spiffy new loafers and the finest hair cuts money can buy. Simply waiting to unleash the Bilderberg Group and the Trilateral Commission approved double-speak of scripted canned nonsense for the honored little profit units in the stands.

      The symmetry of falling confetti, thousands of red and blue balloons, thousands of American flags dot the theatrical landscape. The thousands of drooling American neanderthals look upon the stage in shear worship as if have they’ve just seen the creator himself.

      The corporate pre-ordered Stalinist signs with the face of the chosen one Obama engulfing the convention center, while the crowd listen’s to a razor sharp rendition of an traditional socialist military hymn playing in the back ground as a giant flag of ole stars and stripes adds a subliminal texture to the mesmerizing background.

      Not to be outdone is Mr. Romney on stage wearing his new cowboy boots and the finest stetson hat, waving at the comatose profit units as a grand old ballad of one of Charlie Daniels best selling patriotic songs play’s in the background.

      And as if this grand national event which closely resembles a movie in the superb matrix series didn’t already have a magnificent storyline to placate the mind through every channel of the viewing public’s idiot box, we also get the see the new militarized police force of thousands of the most lethal components ever assembled to use if needed against a civilian population in to ensure Jane/Joe six-pack do not upset the latest Presidential reality show of illusion.


      • On May 6, 2012 at 6:15 pm,
        Clay says:

        V: what do you think of Stefan Molyneaux. I think he understands very much.

        • On May 6, 2012 at 6:59 pm,
          Vortex says:

          Hi Clay,

          I have listened to him numerous times. No doubt he is a very intellegent chap and he holds a lot of the same views as many of us do. I believe he’s a Canadian by birth but knows a hell of a lot of history about the U.S. and is well versed on our political system.


          • On May 6, 2012 at 7:54 pm,
            Clay says:

            V: I agree. Strange thing is, many of his views are same as mine decades ago. I will never forget an old gold-miner I knew 50 years ago in Alaska who said, “The more they squeeze, the more will slip out between their fingers”. This man was in fact the real legend behind the Book and then Movie “North to Alaska”. The movie was made for entertainment, but the gold and hot springs were real. The names were changed, except that Sam was Sam, and George was Hank, but the French gal was really a gold digger and not a lady. I know because I met them all.

      • On May 7, 2012 at 5:09 am,
        BJ says:

        Yes, yes, the circus is coming to a town, and I’m buying some popcorn!!!. Love them grits in the South, the trees that grow just right in the North, Obama/Romney Care out East, and of course those machine scuffed jeans and cowboy boots out West. Ah shuckings anyway–think I’ll go watch what’s going on in ring three under that big tent..

      • On May 7, 2012 at 2:46 pm,
        Big Al says:


        Ever been published? You are good!

        Big Al

        • On May 7, 2012 at 3:07 pm,
          Votex says:

          Big Al, you’re too funny.


    • On May 6, 2012 at 6:17 pm,
      Clay says:

      BJ, Yep you are correct.

      Wish Al would listen to Stefan Molyneaux, really I do.

    • On May 7, 2012 at 2:44 pm,
      Big Al says:

      HI BJ,

      Comments coming on this one because I agree with what you are saying!

      Big Al

  4. On May 6, 2012 at 3:15 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:
  5. On May 6, 2012 at 4:11 pm,
    Richard says:

    Al, I’ve read a lot of what Luskin has written or opined about before and generally he like so many others is always late to the party. I can remember a column by him in June of 2009 when he said the housing market was bottoming. That gave a hardy laugh to me. He was habitually wrong about the conventional markets back then also. He’s going to be late again when he talks about the conventional markets for 2013. Many others are parroting the same thing. Al, markets look forward and not backward and they often look forward 6- 9 months. They’re anticipatory. I know you don’t agree with me that we’re entering a cyclical bear market but there is strong evidence this market is now beginning to look forward to the election, the negation of the Bush tax cuts and the coming “spending cuts”. The divergences starting to take place in the conventional markets should be hitting people right between the eyes. The Russell 2000 has turned down and the S&P 500 has not hit a new high like the Dow. The soldiers have left and the generals (Dow) appear they’re ready to leave the battlefield. The transports have not confirmed the Dow highs per Dow Theory. Did you know the average cyclical bull within a secular bear market is 26 months? This one for the Dow is 38 months. There has only been one higher and that was 63 months from 2002-2007. The other high ones were 30 and 33 months. Why have the last 2 been outliers and higher—-probably because of all the monetary stimulus. We’re seeing deflation in the commodities and oil is also starting to roll over. This is signalling a global slowdown which could get out of hand really quickly. My charts are also screaming “bear market”. One of my most important ones, the dow/gold ratio is right up against resistance. If the resistance holds, it’ll be “Katy Bar The Door”. The momentum indicators and strength indicators are moving south. The Russell 2000 is forming a beautiful head/shoulders. I could go on but that’s enough.We’ll know soon. As mentioned previously, it appears to me that we’re looking at an inflection point. The odds for the world markets levitating much longer are precarious.

  6. On May 6, 2012 at 5:33 pm,
    Bobby says:

    In my opinion, there is very little difference between the republican and democratic parties in the US. Neither will get my vote this year. I am still hoping that MR does not win enough to carry the first round of votes, therefore leaving it up to the delegates to vote their own heart. This is Ron Paul’s only chance and the ONLY chance for the US. Unfortunately MR is NOT the answer.

    • On May 7, 2012 at 5:08 am,
      MissiveDuTexas says:

      I like to call those elite controlled minions the “demorepublicrates”.

      Just as I like to call the “authorities” the corpogovernemommy.

  7. On May 6, 2012 at 5:55 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    This video seems to speak to Al’s Daily Rant…it is only 4 minutes and change but in that time investment there are multiple salient points well made:

    • On May 6, 2012 at 6:13 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Excellent. I like that he ended with “debt and collectivism did not work.” So few understand this, even now, that we are DOOMED. The masses will continue to push for MORE collectivism as the solution. Mission accomplished for the planners.

    • On May 6, 2012 at 6:23 pm,
      Bobby says:

      great post.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 12:06 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      I enjoyed it too. Thanks Dennis.

  8. On May 6, 2012 at 6:11 pm,
    Nigel says:

    Al. I assume you saw the result in France. The BBC interviewed a bunch of French voters, and asked them so who is going to pay for Francois Hollande’s policies, earlier retirment age, greater benefits etc. the answer ‘that’s the end of austerity, it’s ok, we’ll just tax the rich’, my view that’s the end of the euro, there is no way Germany will put up with that amount of back tracking, I cant believe they dont get it…

  9. On May 6, 2012 at 6:57 pm,
    Clay says:

    Al, Your worried my friend, and in fact a whole lot of other people have the same affliction, myself included. But to use the analogy of a Ship Titanic in the case of the US is not accurate, a better analogy would be like living in an earthquake zone.

    Suppose you lived in a place where you and many others knew that a major earthquake was going to hit anytime within the next 6 months. You also knew the quake would be catastrophic and even worse than recent Japanese quake. What would you do. Some would leave the danger area altogether, some would stay but get prepared. Those living in dangerous places like low lying areas or in heavily population would move to safer areas, and others would hold fast but fortify. Still others who are unable to move, have limited resources or are handicapped would do whatever they could to endure, while some would pretend or ignore what they knew because they trusted someone else who told them not to worry because their needs will be provided.

    But Al, one thing you can be certain of and just like Donald Luskin knows, any major increase in private capital for projects, businesses, manufacturing or major investments will not be happening at anytime in the foreseeable future, and not until after the current Government has been removed. Romney is current government, just as much as Obama, the Fed, courts and military. These are the things that have to die in the coming economic winter before spring will come.

  10. On May 6, 2012 at 7:44 pm,
    traderrog says:

    Per our forecast Hollande in and auterity is out. France goes down the socialism-communism route as we did forecast in our newsletter last week. This will hurry the bond smash and push Germany down that road too. When Obama is re-elected this fall, the following three months including most of March are fraught with volatility and smashing markets. When does the War start to cover it? – Traderrog

    • On May 6, 2012 at 7:56 pm,
      Clay says:

      Question is Roger, where does the war start and then more importantly where does it spread too??

    • On May 6, 2012 at 7:59 pm,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      Let a Frenchman tell it like it is. History is beginning to rhyme again:

      “Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state lives at the expense of everyone.”

      “Men naturally rebel against the injustice of which they are victims. Thus, when plunder is organized by law for the profit of those who make the law, all the plundered classes try somehow to enter — by peaceful or revolutionary means — into the making of laws. According to their degree of enlightenment, these plundered classes may propose one of two entirely different purposes when they attempt to attain political power: Either they may wish to stop lawful plunder, or they may wish to share in it.”

      • On May 7, 2012 at 4:26 am,
        Dennis M. O'Neil says:


    • On May 6, 2012 at 8:05 pm,
      Richard says:

      I don’t believe Obama will be re-elected for a number of reasons of which the most significant will be declining conventional markets and employment (again) by the time the elections come around. The only positive left for Obama will be cheaper gas prices. Most likely voters will fall for Romney (versus registered voters narrowly for Obama) and if the election is pretty much a tie, undecideds in the recent past have not gone for the incumbent accept for Bush in 2004.

      • On May 7, 2012 at 10:52 am,
        Matthew says:

        Based on contributions, I’d say Obama wins. Not only has Obama received twice as much money, but Goldman Sachs has contributed four times as much to Obama as Romney. In 2008, Obama received nearly four times as much from GS as McCain. In 2004, Bush raised more than Kerry. More money equals a win. Airtime rules. More coverage equals more votes even if the coverage is negative.

  11. On May 6, 2012 at 8:17 pm,
    Vortex says:

    Excellent Trader Rog,

    That is a concise and well thought out snippet. Socialism has completely consumed the U.S. population. We have long ago breached the Rubicon of debt saturation and credit expansion so the next objective by the rulers will be war. That is the last desperate act in attempting to save the system. War is coming and it’s only going to deflect the national bankruptcy from world/public view for another year or two at most.

    This whole fraud engulfed country is on life support and when interest rates start moving up, even 1% as the bond vigilantes force Bernanke’s hand……….this house of imploding cards is going to have a chapter written about it that will be a story for the history books.

    Its every man and woman for themselves now. If we stay within a close nit group such as here we may have a fighting chance. Oh don’t forget between now and then we still have the Presidential reality gong show to wade through.


  12. On May 6, 2012 at 8:56 pm,
    Joe Jarail says:

    I am a proud collectivist. The cooperative solution will always be at least as good as the competitive solution for any state of the world. This was proven by the great Austrian Economists Menger, Morgenstern, and Machlup.

    • On May 6, 2012 at 10:04 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Are you kidding? Collectivism is based on force, NOT cooperation. I proudly despise collectivists.

    • On May 6, 2012 at 10:06 pm,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      Will you proudly re-educate me.
      Hayek said it best “Collectivism is Slavery.”
      Joe try this shirt on for size….

    • On May 7, 2012 at 4:44 am,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      Sounds like a marxist idea to me….Matthew is correct….
      Joe where are you coming from…
      Are we confusing Austrian Ecomomic with Uneducated Ecomomist?

  13. On May 7, 2012 at 2:02 am,
    D. Brophy says:

    Hi Al, Roger & all, on CNN Money the figure was `The 86 Million Invisible Unemployed` in the United States. I put this up on Sunday facebook as and ad against Obama-Lenin, saying if elected for 4 more years he will probably have 286 Million people on relief or being of the unemployed, under-employed and forgoten masses here in the states, united in a camp of their unchoosing. And I think that Ron Paul still has a chance of taking on both Obama and Romney in the general election and quite possibly winning! His supporters are running this same notion in their minds as noticed by their comments on facebook as I see it, as Ron Paul and his loyal followers have said as an Independent he will run. Another thing in what I`m seeing between the lines Ron Paul has close of capuring some 50% of the much needed delegates in the up coming bid at winning at the GOP convention, so its been reported in his dailypaul ads through his site. For this reason the GOP/RNC are running scared of Ron Paul in circumventing what`s going to playout in the up-coming convention in August. So it might be that Paul might still have an ace up his sleeve come hell & high water. Like what we have all seen in the main stream media is what THEY want us to see, isn`t what`s going to happen. And I have faith in God as does the born-again Dr. Ron Paul,MD has FAITH calling those things that are by the eye of FAITH. (Matthew 17:16-18)“And I brought him(the nation) to thy disciples, and they could not cure him: Then Jesus answered and said, O faithless, and perverse generation how long shall I be with you? bring him(the nation) hither to me. And Jesus rebuked the devil: and he(the devil) departed out of him: and the child was cured from that hour.“ Oh on a side note I have on occasion used the mighty name of Jesus to cast out demons too, even from a homosexual and saw in his eyes that singleness of vision freedom from that spirit that had capured him when he was just a young child. I was delivered from that same spirit too, many years ago, so I too know freedom. Jesus walks in the spirit of the Holy Spirit here in the earth through his followers. They too are his disciples in the body of Christ here in the earth. The Holy Spirit is the 3rd person in the Godhead. `For there are three that bear record in heaven, the Father, the Word, and the Holy Ghost: and these are one.`(1st John 5:7) as porky the pig would say `that`s all folks`…

    • On May 7, 2012 at 4:51 am,
      Jerry O^OTB says:


  14. On May 7, 2012 at 4:39 am,
    Sandy says:

    Hey Al
    Did you hear that Charlie Munger stated on the week-end that “civilized people don’t invest in gold”. He insulted the people of China, India and other parts of the world who heavily invest in gold. What an idiot!

  15. On May 7, 2012 at 4:48 am,
    Jerry O^OTB says:

    Charlie Munger and Warren Buffit, are crooks…..Buffit, has been playing an inside game
    with the polical parties for years…..check this out, HIS DAD WAS IN THE SENATE,OF

    • On May 7, 2012 at 5:33 am,
      Matthew says:

      I think Howard Buffett would have been very disappointed in Warren.

      • On May 7, 2012 at 9:15 am,
        Marc says:

        Matthew good morning!
        I concur 1000% percent.

      • On May 7, 2012 at 3:59 pm,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        Matthew,,, thanks for the update….I would agree, The old folks, at one time did
        respect the constitution, and American rights,,,but, Warren lost any and all his
        respect for others,,The mighty dollar, has “grabbed his soul”

      • On May 8, 2012 at 12:13 am,
        John W. Robertson says:

        As usual, Matthew, great counterpoint. Wish I could have taken a copy of this to Nebraska over the weekend and asked Warren for an autograph…”Here, Mr. Buffet, why not just sign this. OH! Hey, you might be familiar with the writings on this! Wanna have a quick READ?”

  16. On May 7, 2012 at 5:44 am,
    Irishtony says:


    • On May 7, 2012 at 11:31 am,
      Silverbug Dave says:

      Happy Birthday Al’s daughter!
      Hey, Irish Tony, what do you think to the French election result?
      Does this not set the scene for “QE to Infinity” in Europe, as Jim Sinclair coined that wonderful phrase?
      The evergreen commentator Bob Hoye on has convinced himself that the Americans will change in their psychology and the TEA Party movement will usher in fiscal and monetary discipline (not a hope). Meanwhile, exactly the opposite happens. The reaction to a hint of austerity in Europe is to vote in the socialists, spend more money on bread and circuses! Fiscal and monetary disipline will not occur until creditors demand gold as collateral. The disipline will not come from central bankers, politicians or the people in the Western world, until bankruptcy is assured or hyperinflation occurs. The people voted in the politicians so they are enfranchised in the corruption. Only external creditors and forces will demand the discipline on western nations, Europe USA and UK alike. Then we are in a crisis that makes 2008 like like a cake-walk.

  17. On May 7, 2012 at 7:49 am,
    Jerry Mabie says:
  18. On May 7, 2012 at 8:00 am,
    Jerry Mabie says:

    Several noted chartists that are apparently bullish on silver have indicated a price of $26.00 for the Ishares. If that fails to hold the next stop could be much lower.
    Does anyone concur or have an opinon on this?


    • On May 7, 2012 at 9:21 am,
      Marc says:

      I find it very interesting and a little ironic that you posted Stockman’s article right before you asked the following question above. My brief answer would be: If you haven’t already, and silver gets down to $26 bucks an ounce – geeeez, back up the truck and get the heck out of dodge with it! 🙂 Not investment advice – good luck :).
      All the best,

      • On May 7, 2012 at 11:48 am,
        Silverbug Dave says:

        Hmmmmmmmmmm. Yes, nice figure $26. It was the pullback in January 2011 from the first major breakout of silver as it went from $18 to $31 in late 2010. Silver then pulled back to $26.30 in January 2011 on the stockcharts weekly chart. Then it had the huge move up to $50, and following that, it’s crashed to $26.15 twice, so it’s a major support of 17 months’ standing, with 3 major visits there.
        It would be ‘nice’ for silver to trade to $26 again for buyers, even nicer if it went to the last major high of $21 from March 2008. After the big upmove in 2008, silver crashed to $8.40, which was the last major high from 2004(?) and also1998. So I would view $21 as a magnet as well if silver breaks below $26. However, we have had crises in Europe in early 2012, checked by money printing and silver has basically held $30 lately. Now we have sociliast in france, surely guaranteeing QE to infinity? Or a schism in Europe as Germany finds itself the only fiscally resonsible country of any size! Either way, we are in for trouble! May get a crash in the precious metals in the short term but when people see that QE to infinity is compulsory, they SHOULD roar upwards.
        What do Al and Rog think?
        Bob Hoye soh sees the UD dollar going to 90 by the way, as he ahs been saying for some weeks and his colleague Ross Clark also sees this in the charts. More hmmmmmmmmmmmm. That would give ya $20 silver surely.

        • On May 7, 2012 at 1:28 pm,
          Dai Uy says:


          Your analysis makes sense to me. And silver could be in the tank for 12-18 months….
          Should Greece and others get out of the Euro, the dollar will probably get stronger…. for a while. In this scenario, it will be interesting to see how the BIS will discount non Euro denominated local currencies

      • On May 8, 2012 at 12:14 am,
        John W. Robertson says:

        Back up the truck? More like pull-up the freight train.

  19. On May 7, 2012 at 10:00 am,
    Jerry Mabie says:

    Sorry, I don’t follow. Why is it interesting or ironic in the way the posts were made? The article simply prompted the question after reading excerpts from the chartists. I am not looking for nor do I need investment advice.

    • On May 7, 2012 at 10:57 am,
      Marc says:

      Stockman says to buy anything that Bernanke can’t destroy. Silver fits that bill and then some. Then you follow that up with discussing some bullish chartists POSSIBLE scenarios of silver dropping lower – possibly much lower. Connect the dots – Jerry. If you believe what Stockman says and you also understand macro-economic issues and the effect thereof – you should have followed the logic. The logic is another great buying/accumulation scenario. BTW, you asked for input so I gave you some. I don’t know you from “Adam” that is why I respectfully hedge my comments because I am simply here to offer an opinion. That was not to be taken literally. If you did – sorry.
      All the best,

      • On May 7, 2012 at 11:04 am,
        Jerry Mabie says:

        Still don’t follow. Yes I concur with Stockman. Does that mean I don’t remark or question the chartists? That was the whole reason for asking others opinion on the chartist. Asking for opinions on one doesn’t mean I disagree with the other. Thanks for the response. Guess I’m a little slow today.

        • On May 7, 2012 at 11:18 am,
          Marc says:

          Hey Jerry –
          No, you are definitely not slow today :). No problem. We just failed to understand each other. Take care,
          BTW, all my investment stuff could be the “wrong” move. I know what I don’t know. But, at least I am trying to make good decisions. We will see.

          • On May 7, 2012 at 11:33 am,
            Jerry Mabie says:

            Hey Marc,
            I hear you on “the good decisions”. I decided a long time ago that the only thing worse than being wrong was to do nothing. We all try and we either win or lose. At least we tried.

  20. On May 7, 2012 at 10:14 am,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    Melville’s classic symbolism laced “Moby Dick” is a allegory of the destruction of the Pequod and crew in search of the leviathan. The whale is symbolic of many things but it is most reflective of runaway statism. Captain Ahab being compelled by his own injuries both physical and mental decided the Pequod’s fate. The Pequod was set on a course of no return. In our own challenges…. which in the coming days will be many “Call me Ishmael”!

    • On May 7, 2012 at 11:51 am,
      Marc says:

      I concur with you 100%!

  21. On May 7, 2012 at 1:22 pm,
    wyn harter says:



  22. On May 7, 2012 at 2:25 pm,
    bentnail says: