Al's Insights – Tue 8 May, 2012

Doc Weighs in On Gold

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Featuring:
Al KorelinRichard Postma

Comments:
  1. On May 8, 2012 at 11:59 am,
    John W. Robertson says:

    Well done, Richard.

    It’s quite brave to call any forecast for gold, using any basis. There is still pressure to run the price down so central banks can keep accumulating, as I think someone mentioned yesterday. This has always been a belief of mine. GATA looks at JP “bombing the markets”, and we all call it manipulation after it happens, but remember that money isn’t just made by them shorting. Central Banks and sovereign funds also want to back-up the truck. We deride banks, but make no mistake…they believe what we do now. About the only two people who aren’t talking gold yet are Warren Buffet and Paul Krugman. Heck, even John Nadler thinks some gold is good.

    With China’s ever accelerating accumulation of gold mines, the new version of PAGE ready to fly, France (and Europe) going anti-austerity and free wheeling spending again, plus we in the US running 8.3% deficits, as % of GDP (geez, I can’t believe I’m saying that…), gold is going 1 place. Up. Really UP.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 12:14 pm,
      Ryan says:

      Wanted to second John’s compliment for you, Richard, on your short term calls.
      I also found it interesting that Charlie Munger was trashing gold late last week, and now Bill Gates was out on CNBC doing the same. This at a time of real turbulence in European politics, and at a time of continued efforts being made by all sorts of countries to diversify away from the dollar. If I didn’t know any better, someone is desperate to get people to ignore the role of gold and silver in their portfolios. It is really embarrassing to see someone who represents some of the best technological innovation in the last several decades (B. Gates) being so clueless regarding the monetary and currency issues facing our world. But in many ways, he is a creature of a different era, an era where “hopium” worked. (Gates opined that digital mining would dramatically increase gold production in the CNBC interview as an example.) This era is different; it is an era of realism.
      For the video, see below over at Brother John F.
      http://www.brotherjohnf.com/30347/

      • On May 8, 2012 at 1:00 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Many thanks for the link, Ryan.

        Best,

        Big Al

      • On May 8, 2012 at 1:41 pm,
        Joseph says:

        The can and Bill Gates ass is getting kicked down the road by APPLE. That should tell you something
        People are speculating that Apple should by some gold with all that cash like the University in Texas when they bought $1 billion dollars worth of the Real McCoy
        Joe

      • On May 8, 2012 at 5:35 pm,
        John W. Robertson says:

        Ryan, go easy on Gates. He’s just following orders.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 12:49 pm,
      Marc says:

      Right on!…..John W (Doc :))……right on……1000% right on.
      Thanks guys.
      Marc

    • On May 8, 2012 at 12:59 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Afternoon John W,

      That is exactly what the fundamentals are saying.

      I find it really hard to believe that all of this is going on.

      Big Al

  2. On May 8, 2012 at 12:08 pm,
    Joseph says:

    Hi John,
    Encouraging comment. I read somewhere that central Banks all they have to do is print the paper and buy gold for free. I would do it if possible.
    My worry as well as all others invested is we do not want to be in a 2008 crash. The doctor says it will not happen this time. I am trying to make sense of all this. But it still makes me wonder with these poical events going on why is gold selling. What will happen if it gets worst? Why is gold not holding up? Will it hold up if it gets worst?
    Thank you Lord Bless us all with proper wisdom Joe

    • On May 8, 2012 at 12:40 pm,
      richard postma says:

      Joe, I hope I didn’t leave you with the impression it wouldn’t “happen” this time (gold moving down with the conventional markets). According to the charts I watch, we should see gold in the upper $1500′s. At that time I believe I’ll be able to give you a better idea whether it will move lower. At some point gold will have to break away from the general movement of the market. I will say we haven’t seen an end to the gold secular bull market. An interesting piece of history is the secular gold bull market of the 70s—-In 1974-1977, gold had a correction of 43% and the peak to trough took over 11/2 years. It then took over another 11/2 years to get back to the peak. In other words, it took 31/2 years from peak to start to break out to new highs. In this current correction we’re down about 15% after about 8 months. In the next few weeks there’ll be the opportunity (IMO) of a lifetime to begin to position one’s self in mining stocks—-I’m personally beginning to “nibble”

      • On May 8, 2012 at 1:04 pm,
        Big Al says:

        HI Doc,

        First of all, thanks for your time earlier today. You are a valuable member of our “family”!

        I am also getting back into the market and will have some announcements shortly.

        As I mentioned last Saturday, I will be purchasing a bit of Formation Metals tomorrow.

        Best,

        Big Al

      • On May 8, 2012 at 1:50 pm,
        Joseph says:

        Hi Richard,
        Thank you for the comment. Are you saying we should hold on buying until we see what happens when gold hits approx $1,575-1,595?
        Are you saying it is going there?
        Thank you Joe

        • On May 8, 2012 at 6:41 pm,
          Richard says:

          I’m planning on purchasing some gold if we see the level you mention. If it breaks through support, then I’ll look at purchasing some more at lower levels.

          • On May 8, 2012 at 8:36 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Probably a good idea, Doc!

            Big Al

        • On May 8, 2012 at 7:03 pm,
          Richard says:

          Joe, there are very good odds we could see gold as low as $1550-1560. It’s due to some technicals I’m watching. When it gets down there I’ll let you know since it’ll be the first time I’ll be purchasing the metals in months. It doesn’t mean it couldn’t break support and go lower.

          • On May 8, 2012 at 8:37 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Just put up a 44 Doc!

            I will be very interested to see if the technicals in this case are correct. I assume that your time frame is very short term in this case.

            Big Al

      • On May 8, 2012 at 1:52 pm,
        Joseph says:

        Hi again Richard,
        Will the US$ be any form of indicator where the PM are going?
        Thank you Joe

        • On May 8, 2012 at 6:46 pm,
          Richard says:

          It’s tough to say. Commodities have really been compromised and I’ve been asking myself what the catalyst will be to drive commodities and the PMs higher as opposed to the conventional markets. I’ve been watching the dollar closely and it’s been moving in a very narrow channel. What’s interesting and the thing to watch is the 50 week MA which is moving up. If the dollar breaks either way it should have a significant move since it has been trading in such a narrow channel.

          • On May 8, 2012 at 8:39 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I whole-heartily agree that commodities have been compromised.

            My feelings are that if things continue to break down in Europe that will be the catalyst.

            Big Al

    • On May 8, 2012 at 1:02 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Afternoon Joseph,

      Proper wisdom is certainly needed at this time.

      We get this from our family on our site.

      I can’t express my thanks enough for all of you.

      Yes, Lord Bless us all with proper wisdom!

      Big Al

      • On May 8, 2012 at 9:38 pm,
        Clay says:

        In 2008 the Federal Debt was about 9.7 Trillion dollars with a Debt/GDP of about 70%. Today 4 years later the Debt is 15.7 Trillion with Debt/GDP of about 103%. Between then and now a whole lot of economic things got worse and very little got better.

        Are we to assume that the Fed and Government are prepared to let everything they have tried to do in last 4 years flush down the drain and allow the US go into a depression many times worse than ever before? Or are they going to buck up and start doing something they have not yet tried, say actually drop money from a helicopter. If the Fed allows the US to go into a depression this summer we might just get Ron Paul elected as President. If Ron Paul does enter the White House as president next year, what will happen to Bernanke and the Fed? Under such a depression like election Americans might be demanding not only that President Paul fire Bernanke, but ask him to abolish the Fed altogether.

        If the Fed does not start some serious QE soon, they won’t be in business next year.

        • On May 8, 2012 at 10:10 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Very good insight, in my opinion, Clay!

          Big Al

    • On May 9, 2012 at 10:25 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      Joseph,

      I’m proud of you…that’s exactly what the banks are doing. Create (inflationary) money, buy gold with it before the inflation takes hold, and then be left with a vault of gold in 5 years after pushing out increasingly more-and-more worthless paper into the world. My friend, that is exactly what they are doing.

  3. On May 8, 2012 at 12:28 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Great interview. I think we are likely to see what we saw last July when the Dow topped while gold bottomed. Each then made powerful moves, but in opposite directions.
    Natgas is looking great. I bought a few miners, some Canadian dollars, and NUGT right into the lows today.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 12:33 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      Uh oh Matthew!

      You must be feeling mighty frosty if you are gong after NUGT! You da man!

      • On May 8, 2012 at 12:54 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I just had to! It hasn’t been this oversold since January 2011. I’ll buy more if it plunges again tomorrow. Inverted “rhino horns” have to be bought. The volume also suggests that this is ending action. We’ll see! Hope I’m still frosty, not frosted, by Friday!
        http://onlineslangdictionary.com/meaning-definition-of/frosted

      • On May 8, 2012 at 3:24 pm,
        Marc says:

        Matthew, professor….YOU are da man!

    • On May 8, 2012 at 1:08 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Hi Matthew,

      So you are slowly getting back in like some of us.

      I just put in an order to purchase some Formation Metals tomorrow as I announced last Saturday.

      Best,

      Big Al

    • On May 8, 2012 at 1:19 pm,
      Madelene says:

      Yep, I bought back into GDXJ today. It came close to my downtrending channel line. Also, the XAU is near to a 50% retracement of the move up from the lows in 2008 to the highs in 2011.

      • On May 8, 2012 at 2:25 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Afternoon Madelene,

        Looking better and better isn’t it!

        Thanks for the comment.

        Big Al

      • On May 8, 2012 at 6:49 pm,
        Richard says:

        Madelene, the GDXJ is almost at another crossroads. It’s almost at a previous low and the question is whether it takes it’s stand here. It’s interesting that some of the low price PM gold stocks took somewhat of a stand today even with the large sell-off.

  4. On May 8, 2012 at 12:33 pm,
    Joseph says:

    I do not know if you guys are interested but EDR.TO is up one penny and Fr.to is only down 3 cents. Maybe these two have hit bottom or have very little downside left to go
    Thank you Joe

  5. On May 8, 2012 at 12:40 pm,
    Irishtony says:

    HELLO RICHARD……………JERRY & I as holders of AL’s purse have decided to put you on the payroll…as we do not wish you to leave, & join another site, your too important to us , so as i type JERRY is setting up an offshore account in your name, so the tax bandit cant get his grubby little hands on your just award. AL make sure you make the payments on time, or i will set my evil.. vicious..nutter of a stick insect on you , & he doesn’t go for the water pipes…..he goes for the juggler. PS hope you got your kitchen sorted.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 1:10 pm,
      richard postma says:

      Maybe Al will take me out to dinner some time—-I don’t know how tight Al is with his dinero.

      • On May 8, 2012 at 1:13 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Doc,

        Golf and dinner on me in Chicago!

        Big Al

    • On May 8, 2012 at 1:13 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks Mr. Irish,

      Slowly getting it sorted out.

      Can’t get a plumber here until tomorrow at the earliest. I am getting to be a real expert. Determined the leak; worked around it; and, now have hot water to the dishwasher, cold water to the sink and no leaks.

      I am experiencing one of the disadvantages of living in the sticks!

      Big Al

    • On May 8, 2012 at 2:14 pm,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      IRISH…..THE CHECK HAS BEEN FORWARDED, BY PONY EXPRESSIONS…,
      wE, and Plumber AL,,, ENDORSE YOUR DECISION…….

      • On May 8, 2012 at 2:27 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Since you are the secretary-treasure, the ball is in your court!

        Big Al

        • On May 8, 2012 at 5:00 pm,
          Jerry O^OTB says:

          oH, is that my job this week, no problem…the check is in the mail….

          Dear Richard,
          AL “the Plumber” has authorized me to forward a check to your account,
          via our Swiss Cheese Banking account, to be issued in the following mannor,
          Please be advised, in order to expedite the above check, I must first have you
          forward a signed blank check
          to Mr Lucky Irish, and Co. to the following address,,,
          Plumbers Gush
          101 Swirling Hole
          UR Washed Out, Wash. 30303
          The pay roll endorsement card will be mailed along with Your membership card the following week If you have not heard from us with in one month, please do not hesitate to
          call Roger Dodger for any and all related trading ideas, but, do not
          call us …,,as you know this is only offered to our privately selected guest speakers
          no others need apply.
          Respectfully,
          OOTB
          Secretary-Tresure of Buried Accounts.

          • On May 8, 2012 at 5:44 pm,
            John W. Robertson says:

            If he’s not available, I know another good plumber…in Drainesville, VA.

          • On May 8, 2012 at 8:41 pm,
            Big Al says:

            That is great, In the Box!

            Big Al

  6. On May 8, 2012 at 12:52 pm,
    Irishtony says:

    NIGEL FARAGE……….OVER AT King World NEWS.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 5:02 pm,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      Mad IRISH jUST READ ,,,,GREAT POST

    • On May 8, 2012 at 1:17 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Thanks Matthew,

      Read this.

      Who in their right mind does not believe in gold at the time!

      Big Al

    • On May 8, 2012 at 3:36 pm,
      Marc says:

      Matthew,
      I read this morning before I left for some errands. Yeah, it BLOWS my mind on a continual basis how the majority aren’t getting this. What is it? , THEY might say!? Look at what China and the Central banks are doing….c’mon folks…what type of “signposts” do you need to get on board the PM train. We are heading to a gold standard (See John Butler’s interview and/or newly published book – “The Golden Revolution”. Butler is one of the most articulate interviewees I have heard in this arena) or quasi thereof quicker than anybody can even imagine. Additionally, with a heavy heart, the Yuan will be the reserve currency down the road. How long is that road? I have no clue, but it is coming. Times are changin and they are changin fast.
      All the best,
      Marc

  7. On May 8, 2012 at 1:03 pm,
    Irishtony says:

    AL…………The scoop of the year………RON PAUL…NIGEL FARAGE…& YOUR GOOD SELF.ON A THREE-WAY VIDEO LINK UP ……….I for one would pay in silver to see that. AH one can only live & hope.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 1:14 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Hopefully, I will visit with Ron Paul next week.

      Big Al

  8. On May 8, 2012 at 1:12 pm,
    DEN HI-O-SILVER says:

    IF GATES , MUNGER AND BUFFET ARE BANGING GOLD MAYBE THE HIDDEN POWERS BEHIND THE SCENES ARE TELLING THEM TO SPEAK OUT AGAINST GOLD. THEY ARE ALL (PAPER BOYS) ANY WAY. THEY DON’T WANT TO LOSE THERE POWER, THEY OWN HALF OF THE WORLD.
    I’AM LONG PM’S. THIS WILL FINALLY TURN AROUND AND WE WILL BE ALL GIGGLES.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 1:18 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I completely agree Den Hi-O-Silver!

      Big Al

  9. On May 8, 2012 at 1:19 pm,
    Irishtony says:

    HELL FOLKS…..There is an awful stench blowing across the CHANNEL from EUROPE, to the south coast of England, where i live…..i think it’coming from the EU politicians, who are running about like headless chickens….with soiled PANTS & PANTIES…Tomorrow i buy more SILVER……….

    • On May 8, 2012 at 2:03 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Mr. Irish,

      I gotta tell you, I simply don’t see the wisdom in what is going on in Europe.

      Big Al

      • On May 8, 2012 at 2:17 pm,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        HECK AL,,,,IF THEY ARE ALL LIKE IRISH,,,,,WHAT DO YOU EXPECT
        (he, he ,you know we lov ya…mad irish….).

        • On May 8, 2012 at 2:28 pm,
          Big Al says:

          Question for Mr. Irish,

          I assume that you bathe daily. Am I correct?

          Big Al

          • On May 8, 2012 at 2:49 pm,
            Irishtony says:

            Nice one AL you nearly got me there

    • On May 8, 2012 at 3:26 pm,
      Mark Alan says:

      IRISH….

      Don’t just BUY silver….buy LOTS OF SILVER…and some guiness.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 3:49 pm,
      shawn says:

      Why can’t we put all politicians on the back of flat bed trucks and drive them to the car wash so they can feel the pain of a real “HOSIN”.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 5:48 pm,
      John W. Robertson says:

      irish,

      See if you can’t convince the North Atlantic Oscillation to just carry the UK isles a little closer to Nova Scotia. I’ll tell Canada you’re coming. You might have to close off that Chunnel thing for a while though.

      • On June 15, 2012 at 11:36 pm,
        Hiba says:

        I have learned some new thnigs via your weblog men and women:dresses,shoes,heels,sneakers-Hello world! . One other thing I’d like to say is the fact newer laptop os’s often allow more memory for use, but they additionally demand more ram simply to run. If your computer could not handle much more memory and the newest application requires that ram increase, it could be the time to shop for a new Computer system.

    • On May 9, 2012 at 1:38 am,
      Martin (UK) says:

      Tony.
      I would hang on for a while yet with the silver, its going to sell off even more.
      Dont be fooled into thinking $15 ior even $9 is impossible. It was possible in 2008, And the shit has still to hit the fan :mrgreen:

  10. On May 8, 2012 at 2:08 pm,
    Madelene says:

    Hi Al,

    Is there any way to search for a particular contributor’s posts? If not, could you ask your website person if they could add it? I’d love to be able to go back and read some of Doc’s (and other great contributors) previous posts. Thanks!

    • On May 8, 2012 at 2:28 pm,
      Big Al says:

      HI Madelene,

      I will forward this to Sarah.

      Good idea!

      Big Al

      • On May 11, 2012 at 10:53 am,
        ker says:

        Hi Madelene – you can search for whatever you are looking for… comments, comment authors, etc. Just type what you are looking for in the “search box” in the upper right hand corner of the site.

    • On May 8, 2012 at 5:52 pm,
      John W. Robertson says:

      Madelene,

      Actually there is. Just enter a person’s name on the Search box at the top, right-hand-corner of any page on KER. For frequent posters, there can be quite a long list, but I’ve used this several times. I think it only goes back about 1 year though.

      • On May 8, 2012 at 8:42 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Thanks John W,

        I did not know that.

        Big Stoopid Al

      • On May 8, 2012 at 11:38 pm,
        Martin (UK) says:

        Hi John W
        Search box doesnt seem to work.

        • On May 9, 2012 at 10:28 am,
          John W. Robertson says:

          Can’t say what you’re running into Martin, but just tried it again…worked properly. Make sure you search on a name you know exists. For example, “Clyde Harrison” brought up 6 entries or so.

  11. On May 8, 2012 at 2:11 pm,
    Jerry O^OTB says:

    oh my IRISH,,, THAT IS WAY TO MUCH DETAIL TO SHARE WITH OUR NEWCOMERS,,,,

    • On May 8, 2012 at 2:19 pm,
      Irishtony says:

      You know me, JERRY, i will break bread with anybody…………Good health, Good buddy.

      • On May 8, 2012 at 2:30 pm,
        Big Al says:

        I believe it would be more accurate to say, “I will share a Guinness with anybody”!

        Big Al

        • On May 8, 2012 at 2:54 pm,
          Irishtony says:

          SOD OFF, AL. I SHARE MY GUINNESS WITH NO MAN………..My cat..my car..my bills..my dresses..yes….but my black stuff..NNNoooooooooooo.

          • On May 8, 2012 at 3:17 pm,
            Marc says:

            My dresses?……..LOL!!!
            Hey, just got a GREAT IDEA! How about I get Irish and Jerry a gig at the famous La Jolla Comedy Store here is San Diego! I could book here as a start and then work my way, as their agent, across the stand-up comedy circuit in USA. I will collect my 10%…no make that 25% …..heck, throw in a debt bail-out or two for some friends and I will get to work marketing you guys right away. No paper please. Only gold and silver payment accepted!
            Marc “agent” stayin’ frosty.

          • On May 8, 2012 at 4:03 pm,
            Big Al says:

            I feel exactly the same way about some of MY red wine!

            Big Al

          • On May 8, 2012 at 8:32 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            Marc,…..if the gold does not go up , I will be force to hit the road,

            The commission will be gladly advanced upon completion, and only after
            all expenses have been paid , this would have to cover the annual brew
            bill that Irish incures. Covering this annual brew bill will assure his
            participation .

  12. On May 8, 2012 at 4:03 pm,
    Big Al says:

    Common Marc, no solicitations on this site. Besides, I already have Ms Irish under contract.

    Big Al

    • On May 8, 2012 at 4:15 pm,
      shawn says:

      I think if Jerry and Tony are going to be a comedy duo we should call them “RUB AND TUG”.

      • On May 8, 2012 at 4:26 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Either that or just the old fashion Mr. and Mrs!

        Big Al

      • On May 8, 2012 at 8:17 pm,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        shawn……..RUB AND TUG ?…how about….BUB AND UGG….(united great guiness)

        • On May 8, 2012 at 8:44 pm,
          Big Al says:

          United Great Guinness, that’s GREAT!

          The Red Wine Guy

    • On May 8, 2012 at 4:20 pm,
      Marc says:

      Oooops, Big Al, my bad! Go Aztecccs!
      BTW, “My” B of A is at in again. Did you see where they are going to send out over 200K letters of mortgage holders to give them an opportunity to have up to 150k (dollars) reduced on their mortgage as sum sort of lawsuit settlement….geez, lets just bail out the whole world….oh, yeah we are going to do that. How? By rebooting the whole global financial system/infrastructure……a global jubilee for everyone! NOT…got gold and silver?
      Marc

  13. On May 8, 2012 at 4:26 pm,
    Big Al says:

    Holy smoke! What is that all about?

    It’s just getting crazier and crazier. Something for absolutely nothing!

    Big Al

    • On May 9, 2012 at 4:14 am,
      Jerry O^OTB says:

      BIG AL….I AGREE WITH YOU……THE ENTIRE WORLD HAS GONE NUTS…..
      have a great and blessed day……I am sure there is more to come…..
      Your friend, accountant, money manager, contoller of wild beast(irish), and
      spell proof artist….ootb..