Al's Insights – Mon 14 May, 2012


I received this from a listener yesterday and, I have to say, that I completely agree.
My original thoughts regarding religious issues as they pertain to investing had to do with the situaton inΒ  the Middle East.Β  Unfortunately, the discussion got a little silly and had little room for mutual acceptance. Too bad! From now on all comments of this type will be edited from this otherwise great site.
Why have we decided to do this? Easy,Β  because a lack of acceptance of others is a sign of ignorance and this family is comprised of too many bright people to allow that.
Hi Al
I have to tell you that I worry about your site due to religious fanatisim, I feel this will drive people away.
An idea might be to run a particular thread to deal with religous debat.and exclude it on investment threads.
Your site is VERY good and you moderate VERY well, and I see the potential to go beyond what might be thought today.
This move of including listeners was nothing short of brilliant in my opinion.
Anyway, I really do worry about loseing critical thinkers due to religous discussion.
Please protect your site and keep up the EXCELLENT work and thank you for all you do.

Al Korelin

  1. On May 14, 2012 at 6:39 am,
    har says:

    Guess we figured out what a death cross means that I mentioned the gold chart was flashing 2 weeks ago.

    Can’t wait for Roger to tell us gold has bottomed, again. The old A, B, C, choppity, choppity, nonsense.

    • On May 14, 2012 at 7:18 am,
      Mark Alan says:

      Morning Har

      I don’t blame your frustration one bit. That’s why I learned to do my own thinking. Dr. Postma is very good at what he does and has been a lot more rational about the metals market than most ‘gurus’ out there. But remember, Trader Rog is only calling it, like he sees it – even though at times I disagree with him.

      I too have eaten broken glass on this latest correction we are having, thinking it would hold around $1625, but I was also willing to review my own technical work to see where I went wrong and consider other people’s opinions. Well, I feel we are now very close to the bottom but that doesn’t mean I am going to all in, just keep nibbling. We still have to fill the lower gaps and if we don’t do that today, we WILL see it soon and that is where I want to see the prices hold and then head back up. If not, well, then my own personal analysis is wrong but I am the one responsible.

      Yes, it gets old listening to all the happy talk when our favorite investments keep getting taken to the wood shed only to be beaten with the whole forest instead of just an ugly stick. But even Jim Sinclair, Emby, Sprott, are eating broken glass and have been now for quite some time. I at least can say I beat them in their analysis – LOL!

      Weed out the noise Har, and start listening to yourself instead. You can help contribute better when you see things differently and express them. Take care, my friend and stay frosty.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 8:20 am,
        Marc says:

        I agree with your comments. Where does the “beat down” stop? Right at QE 3. QE is a DEAD ON certainty. The FED baked their own cake. TOO BAD they left out the sugar! Now they going to have to eat it. I am in for the long run. I have people that are counting on me to make good investment decisions. Would I be in ANY PAPER asset at this point – with third counter party risk….NO WHY? Because the hatchet can fall on the vulnerable NECK at any time! I value my had too much!!
        All the best,
        P.S. If you invested monies that you need short term – I am truly sorry! In my humble opinion, hang in there – and don’t get scared out of the RIGHT SIDE OF THIS TRADE!

        • On May 14, 2012 at 8:22 am,
          Marc says:

          I value….my HEAD to much…I need to proof read!

          • On May 14, 2012 at 8:41 am,
            Mark Alan says:

            Hey Marc!

            How you doing today? Hope you get your new bachelor pad. Hey! take some lessons from Jerry OOTB regarding “proof” reading…He’s real good at it. πŸ™‚

            stay frosty

          • On May 15, 2012 at 4:40 am,
            Big Al says:

            Morning Marc,

            The game is definitely not short term!

            Big Al

          • On May 15, 2012 at 7:42 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            DID’nt you guys take short hand in high school…besides, us executives always had
            secretaries to check our spelling….we always came up with the ideas, and didn’t
            have time to proof anything , just aprove..things…ya know what I mean….

          • On May 15, 2012 at 7:44 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            besides time is money,,,and time waits for no man…..he, he…

        • On May 14, 2012 at 10:29 am,
          John W. Robertson says:

          Har, Marc and Mark,

          (Sounds like a law firm)

          “I am in for the long run. ”

          You bet, and you’re also in it for the black-swan’s. One dog-day in Europe will change things for gold in an awful hurry.

          Har, Roger is using vertical spreads, 1/2 year out or more. That’s a natural hedge to these 10-15% cycles, up or down. That’s also what his 30 years of trading analysis experience focuses on for his trading advice. For his trading system, his analysis usually works in the time frames predicted by his model. If you’re disappointed at his advice, I’d suggest looking at your trade (or longer term investment) model, and compare it to Roger’s. If you don’t have a model, get one. Shooting from the hip doesn’t work well in investing.

          • On May 14, 2012 at 11:18 am,
            Mark Alan says:

            Actually sounds more like a hair lipped dog.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 9:37 am,
        castanheiro says:

        Gentlemen and Ladies,
        We are in a NEW learning curve. The old models aren’t working anymore. The dynamics driving movement in the daily prices have changed. If we’re using the old prognostication methods, which are based on human psychology and actions, well….they are not working anymore, because people, traders, investment firms, etc… are responding to a different set of stimuli, IMHO. Right now, we’re in a FEAR cycle and everybody’s trying to figure out what the herd is doing, so they can do the opposite, but the herd is in chaos and not giving a clear signal, so nobody knows what to do at this point. So,
        we’re all in this new learning curve together and it gets a little messy as we try to figure things out. Hang in there!!!

        • On May 14, 2012 at 9:44 am,
          Mark Alan says:

          But Castanheiro…

          We really aren’t in a new learning curve, just one we haven’t experienced before. This sort of thing happened in the 70’s but now it has a more dynamic flavor to it. But if we are in a true FEAR cycle, then why aren’t the markets falling more? I think we are in the EXTREME caution cycle just before the market jerks. Whatever it decides to do, you are right, hang in there but be ready.

          • On May 14, 2012 at 11:27 am,
            castanheiro says:

            Agreed Mark Alan,
            I would go along with the EXTREME caution cycle too, as another way of putting it. And you’re right, it’s certainly one I have not experienced before. Trying to stay ready, for what, not quite sure? ha ha.

        • On May 15, 2012 at 4:46 am,
          Big Al says:

          Morning Mr. C,

          Did a couple of tv interviews yesterday and that is exactly what I said during both of them. (fear!)

          Big Al

      • On May 15, 2012 at 4:39 am,
        Big Al says:

        Morning Mark A,

        I certainly agree with you.

        Had dinner with, among other folks, Simon Mikhailovich last evening. What an interesting and insightful man.

        Listen to him later Tuesday and again on the Weekend Show.


        Big Al

    • On May 14, 2012 at 8:18 am,
      Clay says:

      Har: Sentiment understood, but don’t blame Roger he is only telling like it as he sees it. I don’t think Roger ever considered himself an oracle at least I hope not.

      But your concern is well understood by many. In this respect take look at the overlay charts of Gold and the Euro, you will see they run in almost perfect unison. This has been the case sense about middle of July 2011. The connection is near absolute and probably is result of gold trading inverse to Dollar in risk trade. Could it be that starting last July the banks began selling European Gold into the market? We don’t know what the CDS agreements are, but perhaps these BBBBB’s )Big Bad Bonus Bailout Banks) have access to European nations vaulted gold and are using this together with huge leverage to force gold down. We know that many of the PIIGS have banker installed governments so everything done by the Bank owned governments is approved by the banks.

      Also consider the situation in the US with Debt rising exponentially. The Fed knows that they will have to begin significant additional QE by doing something they have never done before like literally issuing bonus checks to every American, something that can be taxed by the Governments without the Banks getting most of the money. This would be akin to Bernankes idea of dropping money from a helicopter, which he said he could do.

      It is not just Gold that is going down, it is nearly all basic things like Oil, Gas, and commodities. Last week on KWNews two really important blogs were posted, Citi Banks analyst Fitzpatrick and another by Dan Norcini. Fitzpatrick suggested that the US 10 year Yield could go down to 1.15% and Norcini said that this would be in tandem with the start of the Worlds deepest Depression, much much worse than the 1930’s. If the Fed and governments allow this, Government revenues would collapse and the Government Debt would go to the Moon. Such an outcome would make the consequences, intended or not, of massive QE totally insignificant as compared, because should the US and World go into the Greatest of all Depressions neither the Federal Reserve nor its dollar would survive.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 8:32 am,
        Marc says:

        In my opinion, EXCELLENT analysis/input Clay…thanks!

      • On May 15, 2012 at 4:49 am,
        Big Al says:

        Morning Clay,

        I have found it worthwhile to not take anyone seriously who thinks he/she is the prettiest baby in the nursery.

        Obviously, you feel the same way!

        Big Al

  2. On May 14, 2012 at 7:11 am,
    James C says:

    Good idea! There are plenty of other sites for debate on religious issues. I do think that war in the Middle East will affect the PM prices since that is still a major source of oil.
    Seems like now or very soon is a great time to dollar cost average in and invest some, either in the bullion or stocks. this negative setiment will help gold and silver to turn around to an eventual new high. I think I will be cautious and of what money I do have to invest, only spend 25% now. Gold and Silver has just touched a one year low, but the HUI has not been this low since Feb 2010. I think the buillion is a safer bet than stocks presently. It seems the regular stock market will drag down the metal stocks. Then watch out for consonsolidations and takeovers. There will be some really attractive cheap companies to pick off. Anyone disagree ?

    • On May 14, 2012 at 7:15 am,
      har says:

      U.S. major source of oil is from North America. They get very little from the Middle East. If there was a war in the Middle East, Europe would be effected. Which would mean the USD would go up and gold would go down.

      Religion – I believe at last count there are 33 major religions and they all think theirs is correct. Just another way to dividend the lower classes while the upper classes take advantage of chaos. Cheers.

      Last post here. This site is dangerous to me because it is so biased. I need better info then pro one side of the story all the time to be able to process information. Good luck to all!

      • On May 14, 2012 at 9:29 am,
        castanheiro says:

        Hey, don’t leave for good. We are all in this together and need the multiple points of view. I’m as frustrated as anybody else. I’m sure you factor in all points of view, as do most of us here. Just as we don’t invest all our eggs into one sector, diversification of views and opinons are important too. Take a break if you need one, but don’t forget to come back, OK? Best to you!

      • On May 14, 2012 at 12:34 pm,
        Mark Alan says:


        Please don’t go away angry. The reason this site appears biased is because we don’t get enough of the opposing side’s view. If you ever feel that what some of us are saying is wrong – PLEASE – post a response and a link or reason to support your opinion. We need people like you! I should know! I have been a victim of “happy happy always going to the moon” talk myself. So, i started ignoring the “cheer leaders” and made my own decisions and taught myself. I can honestly say I have done better doing so.

        Don’t go away angry or frustrated Har. Your opinion and input are both wanted and needed.

        stay frosty

    • On May 15, 2012 at 4:50 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning James C,

      Regarding religious sites, I completely agree in that there are plenty of others out there. We don’t need to discuss this issue here.

      Big Al

  3. On May 14, 2012 at 7:12 am,
    Ken says:

    Dang, look out below. Gold blew right through 1580, 1570, 1560…geez. I’m thinking it’s prolly going to hold 1550 today and bounce up.

    • On May 14, 2012 at 7:17 am,
      har says:

      Roger called the botton on Friday, again. Ouch. I asked him what freaking chart he was looking at – no response.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 7:31 am,
        Dan, calgary says:

        I now disregard what Roger says as the PTB are so clever as to fool the people I once thought had the upper hand.

        I think the problem is a lack of trust between investors and the information they use to govern their investments. I would have done MUCH better if I had stricktly went by the technical chart of the TSX.V and stayed out of the market completely. Until new money flows in there will be no bull market. The PTB are likely scared and buying gold as we wonder what the heck is going on!


        • On May 15, 2012 at 4:55 am,
          Big Al says:

          Morning Don,

          Be interesting to see if where the upward movement which started this morning continues.

          Big Al

      • On May 14, 2012 at 8:39 am,
        Marc says:

        I don’t think its bias…….I just think it makes sense. Read ANY counter argument for the metals and related investments suffering LASTING effects to the downside. Then REALLY, REALLY look at the MACRO economic environment of the world. Then ask me again if I am REALLY bias!? It’s good to have you guys in here – counter arguing points and opinions. But, don’t leave the site because your frustrated. We are all frustrated – currently. But, if I thought for a second that this was not the sector to be invested in – I would leave right away. It is…..and I am not! (leaving)
        All the best,

      • On May 15, 2012 at 4:54 am,
        Big Al says:

        Morning har,

        Roger is not good at all at responding.

        Remember that he is not a partner on this site. He is a contributor like everyone else.

        Best to you and I truly hope that we do not loose you.

        Big Al

  4. On May 14, 2012 at 7:18 am,
    Mark Alan says:

    Thanks for your great service Big Al! My friends are happy with your decision!

    • On May 14, 2012 at 8:40 am,
      Dai Uy says:


      I concur. I very much value both Big Al’s and Roger’s insights.

      I try to look out 6-12-18 months and in particuliar, this year after the election so while daily and weekly ups and downs can be a bit unnerving, I’m not overly concerned as the fundamentals probably won’t change long term. Prices may go lower yet so the Central banks can buy cheaper. The rationale given by the IMF for their proposed 2 Billion lb purchase of gold is revealing and probably is in agreement with most on this site!!!!!

      • On May 15, 2012 at 4:58 am,
        Big Al says:

        Remember Dai,

        I nor anyone else on this site has any MEANINGFUL insights. We just have opinions.

        The value of this site comes from EVERYONE and that includes you, my friend!

        Big Al

  5. On May 14, 2012 at 7:22 am,
    Bob says:

    As a contrarian this news story tells me to sell gold… I still believe gold bottoms around $1100-1200. The bottom in mining stocks will be when Al’s sponsors cannot dilute their shareholders anymore to pay for advertising and start yanking their money. Who will be the first to be delisted?

    Markets teach people to be humble. Ranting last year about how stupid advisor’s were to put their clients in stocks while cheerleading for mining exploration stocks marked the top (exploration stocks are the same as stocks – no revenue, issue shares to pay management, need to constantly promote, hope their “product” can be sold economically…), those in the junior mining promote game needed to learn some humility, usually this comes from going bankrupt. I see XRC hit a new 52 week low this morning.

    After years of selling it, IMF plans to buy $2 billion in gold

    From Commodity Online
    Ahmedabad, India
    Monday, May 14, 2012

    NEW YORK — The International Monetary Fund is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2,800 tonnes of gold at various depositories

    • On May 14, 2012 at 7:44 am,
      Dan, calgary says:


      I wonder who is helping the IMF buy gold at a discount to the $1700 and up level. I will bet they are not trying to justify buying the gold because that would clue the great unwashed to its true value that has been undermined so badly.

      Sorry Rog, nothing at all personal from my other comment. The PTB are so strong they are now fooling the truly brilliant ones.


      • On May 14, 2012 at 10:15 am,
        Peter says:

        Where is the IMF getting 45 tonnes of gold, assuming $1600? I don’t know for sure, but I have a feeling some of the PIIGS countries will have to pony up their gold in return for additional bail outs.

        • On May 14, 2012 at 12:37 pm,
          Mark Alan says:

          They called Irish Tony and he sold him some of his stash. Him and Jerry OOTB have been selling marriage licenses for cats and dogs and been taking the earnings to buy gold. Rumor has it that Obama wants equal rights for animals too, so marriage licenses will be the next HOT item. DANG! Wish I would have thought of that before Irish and Jerry.

          • On May 15, 2012 at 12:57 am,
            Irishtony says:

            MARK……….You left out the horses. Jerry wanted to include spiders, & i said are you mad, male spiders would never get married, as you all know the female eats the male after mating, unless he jumps off quick & runs like the clappers.

          • On May 15, 2012 at 9:27 am,
            Mark Alan says:

            Dag Nabbit Irish! I didn’t realize you guys were corning the COMPLETE animal market! Wish you would have told me, I would have gladly given some fiat paper to the endeavor. Oh well…sigh πŸ™

          • On May 15, 2012 at 6:16 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            I WAS THINKing , MORE OF CORNERING THE MARKET on THE SPIDERS, AND CORNER THE SILK MARKET……I figure that with all the gays getting married, there will be a run
            on silk nighties…..

    • On May 15, 2012 at 5:03 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Bob,

      Diluting their shareholders? What does that mean?

      My sponsors pay for Sarah; Carter; Cory; Steve, etc.

      Check my disclaimer and you will see that other sites charge their sponsors upwards of 3 times what we charge. (And, more importantly, they have very little staff.) We are far and away the lowest of any site that does what we do and we have significantly better traffic that any of them other than 321 gold!

      I guess that says something, doesn’t it!

      Big All

  6. On May 14, 2012 at 7:24 am,
    Mark Alan says:

    I am going out on a limb here by saying we are VERY CLOSE to the bottom on gold here. It is good to see gold and silver move down in overnight trading, the gap has now been filled to the downside and now we have gaps to fill on the upside. Silver I think still needs to move just a smidgen lower, like about another 70 cents.

    Who knows? I am probably wrong but this is what I am reading. If we can hold $1555 and close above $1564 over the next two days, we could have the bottom on gold.

    stay frosty everyone!

  7. On May 14, 2012 at 7:38 am,
    Martin (UK) says:

    Hi Al About time it was getting silly.
    Not everyone believes in a creator, god or jesus. I am scientific and do not believe in these things that I believe were dreamed up years ago. No creator can look after everyone on the planet there is simply not enough disk space!

    Religion cannot be good for anyone, it has caused more wars and deaths than anything on the planet. All you believers have a choice and so do we!!
    :mr green:

    I say the bottom is $1500 and Β£25 silver and it wont be long, hang on to your butts!!

    • On May 14, 2012 at 7:44 am,
      Martin (UK) says:

      I dont think its gonna bounce either, sideways to down :mrgreen:

      • On May 14, 2012 at 7:50 am,
        Mark Alan says:

        I don’t think it will BOUNCE strongly either, but a slow grind like taking the stairs up. But your targets are definitely not unreasonable.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 9:47 am,
        impeachemall says:

        Dear ursus scientificus britannicus, once the SHTF, it’s not a good time for bottom picking.

        • On May 14, 2012 at 9:57 am,
          Mark Alan says:

          LOL!! Very true. Point taken! Sometimes I have a tendency to suffer from “inverted cranial rectumitis”

    • On May 14, 2012 at 10:34 am,
      Peter says:


      “Religion cannot be good for anyone, it has caused more wars and deaths than anything on the planet. All you believers have a choice and so do we!!”

      Ah, aren’t you doing exactly what Al said we shouldn’t be doing?

      Just a point for you to ponder, since you are uncritically repeating a common false assertion.

      And what I’m saying now is NOT a religious comment, but simply an observation of historical fact.

      Where not the great calamities of the 20th and 19th centuries caused by atheist ideology? Starting with the Reign of Terror of the French Revolution, followed by the rise of Napoleon, an Atheist free mason. Incidentally, it was this atheist Napoleon who invented what later came to be called “total war.” His wars were really WWI.

      The mentality that lead to the great slaughters of WWI was fostered by Nietzschien philosophy, which is a variant of Darwinian thought.

      Bolshevism/Leninism, then Stalinism, and Hitler who was a social Darwinian, caused the calamities we know so well. By the time Stalin met his maker, about 50 million people in the USSR had been killed by “the system”. And it wasn’t a religious system.

      Atheist ideology killed about 60 million Chinese during Mao’s cultural revolution. Pol Pot, a Marxist Atheist, managed to kill a full 20% of Cambodia’s population. How many people have been killed in North Korea? Why is it’s population shrinking?

      So, no, I am not intending to start a discussion how religion is helpful and atheism is bad. What I’m saying is let’s not buy into unexamined cliches into what is good and what is bad for the world. Look at the record.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 10:47 am,
        Mark Alan says:

        Smack on Peter..Good post

        • On May 14, 2012 at 11:23 am,
          Peter says:

          Thanks Mark,

          I’m often surprised how easily people buy into this “religion has caused more war and suffering than anything else” line. They never stop to realize that there is a direct correlation between an increase in atheism in the western world and the devolution of our societies. Correlation does not prove causation, but I think in this case correlation points to causation.

          • On May 14, 2012 at 11:32 am,
            Mark Alan says:


            It comes about by believing what they are told without doing the actual research themselves. Just like investing. How many gurus have you heard or read recommend a company, only to find out that the info they gave you was superficial and that the guru had NO skin in the game? Pump and dump and then the stock tanks because it was fatally flawed from the beginning. Oh but wait, we READ ONE NEWSLETTER and that was sufficient…yeah right. Read everything you can and read the opposing side as well! Then look at their bibliographies they sourced and then read them as well. Amazing what people will write just to express a personal hatred based solely on ignorance. Sad thing is, I was once one of those people. Take care, my friend and stay frosty.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 2:14 pm,
        John W. Robertson says:

        Peter! I’m really impressed. I had left my own lengthy comment on the history of war (Sat or Fri, can’t remember). Your’s is shorter. You win!

        • On May 14, 2012 at 3:46 pm,
          Peter says:


          Too bad I missed yours. I’m sure it was very worth reading!

        • On May 14, 2012 at 6:34 pm,
          castanheiro says:

          John W R,
          Yours was excellent as well. Enjoyed it immensely. I only wish I had a mind like you guys and could write that well. But, I figure if I hang around you all long enough some of it will wear off on me.

          • On May 15, 2012 at 6:20 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:


      • On May 14, 2012 at 6:32 pm,
        castanheiro says:

        Excellent post! Very astute critical analysis. Now, if I could only take your skills and apply them the same way to my investing, I might do much better. πŸ™‚ But hey, I keep trying and improving. Best

        • On May 14, 2012 at 7:48 pm,
          Peter says:


          If only I could take my skills and apply them the same way to MY investing, I’d do much better.

        • On May 15, 2012 at 6:21 pm,
          Jerry O^OTB says:


    • On May 14, 2012 at 1:21 pm,
      Karen says:

      I find your comment offensive and certainly has a lack of acceptance. So quoting scripture cannot be tolerated but bashing believers is ok????

      • On May 14, 2012 at 2:39 pm,
        Joseph says:

        Hi Karen,

    • On May 15, 2012 at 5:05 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Martin,

      That is exactly what “free will” is all about!


      Big Al

  8. On May 14, 2012 at 7:45 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    This is different; a religious link hijacked by market discussions! πŸ™‚


    • On May 14, 2012 at 8:34 am,
      Martin (UK) says:

      Usually the other way Dan!……… Have a great day!

      • On May 14, 2012 at 6:36 pm,
        castanheiro says:

        Hello Martin,
        I would just ask you to give others the same respect you desire, and I respectfully ask you to “moderate yourself”. Thank you.

  9. On May 14, 2012 at 7:48 am,
    Mark Alan says:

    This week is going to be filled with a lot of important economic news, so we could get further downside in the metals depending on what is released. Here is a list of what to expect for this week

  10. On May 14, 2012 at 7:52 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    8:45 Calgary time. BNN just said that the Gold sector has just increased significantly and the Health sector has dropped. That is a sign of money flows going the gold way. Next update in twelve nano-seconds.


  11. On May 14, 2012 at 7:54 am,
    wyn harter says:

    Needless to say, I am a man of faith in Jesus Christ, which has nothing to do with gold and silver. I leave the former to speak for itself against a world of choice!
    As for the economy of the world, it is in dire straits and will take some very wise men to do the things necessary to have an effect on damage repair. The EU is
    about to make some major and shocking adjustments over the next 6 months to save their economy…a single president, a cut back in EU members and printing of more money. As for the US, we are in a ‘world of hurt’ that most refuse to accept.
    The emotion and fear is so high that people in power and those of on the street cannot think rationally. People in power want more power, control over our lives and economics, even gold and silver (knowing this invalidated a worthless $). So,
    we waffle. My gold/silver stocks are down drastically, but I will hold course. It
    seems, according to Hubert Moolman, that gold/silver may be at a bottom. If I
    would guess gold will drop to $1450-1500 and silver $19-22 and not come back before the last quarter. I was looking at the grounds in my coffee cup and came up with those numbers. I wish all of you the very best in the most difficult times in our nation’s history….even the great depression. Hang in there and pray! And,
    please don’t live in a normalcy bias! Thanks Al and Roger for all you attempt to do to keep us informed. Sorry for the rambling.


  12. On May 14, 2012 at 8:03 am,
    Larry says:

    More on the subjects of this site. Richard Russell on King World said, “Once the primary trend of the market turns down (2008) no force on earth can permanently reverse the primary trend” Amen! Dan Norcini saysif the 10 year bond falls below 1.8% yield that will signal the collapse. As of this am the 10 year bond sits at 1.77

    • On May 14, 2012 at 8:15 am,
      Mark Alan says:

      Norcini says a “weekly close below 1.8%” It’s only Monday, so we still have four days of trading to go and lots of economic news to digest this week. Could get interesting with the FOMC on Wednesday

  13. On May 14, 2012 at 8:23 am,
    Irwin says:

    Every $50 down, somebody calls a bottom. Sooner or later, someone will get it right.

    Last week it was John Hathaway, this week it’s Jordan Roy-Byrne.

  14. On May 14, 2012 at 8:30 am,
    James says:

    For the 3rd day in a row the Dow sees very big early losses, 150 to 200 points and then comes roaring back. Who is holding up this market?

    • On May 14, 2012 at 8:46 am,
      Mark Alan says:

      Also notice that some leading stocks are not falling in tandem with the general markets. I wonder if somebody thinks there will be some sort of announcement regarding economic assistance, if the stock holders just don’t believe it is as bad as it really is….interesting.

  15. On May 14, 2012 at 8:37 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    Ron Sirak on the Golf Channel was talking about cancelled golf courses in the last several years and he referred to 2008/09 as the Great Recession. That could be an indicator that the public is at least beggining to open their eyes to the greatest ripoff of the non-gold based monetary system.


  16. On May 14, 2012 at 8:39 am,
    Jed Davis says:

    I have had the same concern regarding fanatical religious and political posts and its effect on how it makes the site look. This is a resource investing site. Let’s keep it that way.

    • On May 14, 2012 at 1:27 pm,
      Richard says:

      Jed, have you been watching AVL. I mentioned about 4 weeks ago we would probably see $.70-.75. It continues to drop. We should see the low in about 4-5 weeks and then you can load up that 16 wheeler you talked about.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 2:04 pm,
        Jed Davis says:

        A 1/2 ton won’t do. I am bringing a 3/4 ton to load up. I agree we have got a way to go down. But I also know that the world cannot go on with it’s high tech digital lifestyle without rare earths. And these RRE companies have a a resource that is vital to our economy and military. No one will argue that.

  17. On May 14, 2012 at 8:50 am,
    Ryan says:

    I know its hard to be divorced from emotions if you are heavily invested in these markets right now, but if the fundamentals seemed strong for you to buy gold at 1900 or silver at 48 (or even at 1700 and 35), they should seem even stronger now.
    If you were trying to trade or take short term bets or positions on the metals, the time to sell or get bearish was last year when gold was screaming toward 1900 and silver toward 50, not now. Now is the time to be a buyer, or to continue to build positions over time, even as the markets can move lower. In the case of silver, it has been cut in half more than once in its history of trading. That is part of the deal, I suppose if you are trying to make money with that metal in particular. One such time the metal was nearly cut in half was in the early 1970s (from 2.40 down to about 1.30). I feel sorry for the person who sold out at 1.30 at the bottom around 1971 (I think) only to watch the price rocket higher to near 50 dollars ( a return of over 30 times) in less than nine years. Yes, bottom calling is a tricky (foolish?) business, but so is getting shaken out of positions that you know are right when things don’t go your way.
    I echo the comment that markets will humble people, but want to repeat that that is more true for conventional investors than for those of us in this space. With all of the potential black swans out there, not having meaningful exposure to real assets is imprudent and irresponsible, pure and simple. I still feel a lot of people will come to learn this painful lesson in the years to come.

    • On May 14, 2012 at 9:03 am,
      Marc says:

      Boy, Ryan –
      With the “bags loaded” you just nailed it out of the park……CONGRATS on a GRAND SLAM comment my friend….well done…in my opinion!!
      All the best,

      • On May 14, 2012 at 10:52 am,
        Ryan says:

        As usual Marc, you are too kind—–
        Just trying to rally the troops on a day like today…..All the best to you too–

  18. On May 14, 2012 at 9:20 am,
    castanheiro says:

    Hello to all,
    Big Al, I fully agree with your position. We, as grown ups, need to be able to disagree with one another and still be respectful. If someone does not allow for that, then you just have to end it altogether. You do have a great site and I along with all my other friends here, I’m sure, agree that we need to help you preserve it, which calls for each one of us to moderate ourselves. I may be one of the biggest offenders in this regard. So, if I helped contribute to the problem, my Sincerest apologies!!! πŸ™‚
    Thanks for all you do for us!!!
    Hope you all had a great weekend and a Wonderful Mother’s Day!!
    A bit of an ‘aside’. Did anyone listen to Rick Rule’s interview on KWN? If I understood him correctly, he believes that most of the junior mining stocks will continue to tank, due to market malaise, and insufficient funding to ride out this horrible ‘beatdown’ we’re going through. I don’t know. Rick’s a smart guy from all I hear. Would appreciate your opinions on his comments, good, bad, or indifferent.
    Thanks much,

    • On May 14, 2012 at 9:50 am,
      Mark Alan says:

      Hey Castanheiro

      I prefer to listen to Mr. Rule when it comes to natural resource investing. He has worked all sides of the aisle and knows how to really value a company. The others are more market strategist, but Rule is an analyst and doesn’t jump up and down on a cheer leading frenzy. He is level headed and rational.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 6:38 pm,
        castanheiro says:

        Mark Alan,
        Thanks for the input. Appreciated.

    • On May 14, 2012 at 9:54 am,
      Irwin says:

      I took Rick Rule up on his offer to give “buy, hold, sell” advice on any junior, anywhere in the world. I expect a few thousand others did the same, so I won’t hold my breath for a reply.

      Suppose it’s a good way for them to build their “prospective client” list.

  19. On May 14, 2012 at 9:26 am,
    James says:

    If you are worrying about this latest gold correction and are thinking of throwing in ther towel you need to look at a chart from 1974. gold was $200 an ounce and then went all the way down to $100 an ounce. Everyone was calling the end of the bull market. If you sold out then you missed the biggest move in golds history.
    This bull market, like then, can be divided into three stages. The first stage when gold went from $250 to $1900 is over. The 2nd stage we are currently in. It will throw off as many weak hands as possible. This is when you need to do a gut check and decide why you are in this market. When the last weak hand exits stage three will begin. Thats when the train leaves the station and gold prices go into the stratosphere! Hold on!

  20. On May 14, 2012 at 9:27 am,
    Reo says:

    Gold is not going anywhere but sideways to down until near or after the election. Now i`m starting to sound as much like a broken record as Roger with his repetetive calls of..THIS IS THE BOTTOM GOING UP FROM HERE..Parabolic move etc etc…The gold bugs have lost all Credibility as far as I`m concerned..these continous..WRONG predictions..Are laughable.

  21. On May 14, 2012 at 9:36 am,
    James says:

    Like I said – stage two could last for several more months. Then when the people who are rusihiong into the $ realize we are Greece, the $ tanks and gold goes threw the roof. If you want to hold on to worthless paper br by guest.

    • On May 14, 2012 at 9:41 am,
      Marc says:

      Exactly James….exactly!

    • On May 14, 2012 at 4:21 pm,
      Martin (UK) says:

      And what are you going to do with gold when it goes through the roof, which I doubt. Sell it for more worthless paper, you cant eat gold!

      • On May 14, 2012 at 6:57 pm,
        castanheiro says:

        No my friend, not paper. Why would we do that? But if gold is the go-to currency, the desired commodity, the sought after exchange medium, then you’ll be able to buy whatever you need. Food, water, shelter, land, houses, equipment, whatever. You’ll be able to exchange your gold for what you need. It’s a medium of barter and the best one that there is. Last time I checked the dollar had lost 96% of its value since 1913. Hmmmmm, let’s see. gold was $19 back in the 1913 and today, even after a hefty pullback, it’s at $1554.40(nominally, I realize) as I write. Yeh, I think I’ll hang onto my gold. BTW, paper doesn’t taste very good either and is less filling than gold.

        • On May 15, 2012 at 8:26 am,
          Marc says:

          Nice job…Mr. C!

    • On May 14, 2012 at 6:46 pm,
      castanheiro says:

      I would agree, AND I have almost paper stocks. I’m all in the pms and related stocks. I’m not the smartest cat, but I know enough to hold onto this bull when the people we distrust the most are telling us its time to bail. I’m hanging on for the ‘moon shot’.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 6:59 pm,
        castanheiro says:

        Sorry, should have said, ” I have NO paper stocks”

    • On February 2, 2014 at 6:35 pm,
      Simran says:

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  22. On May 14, 2012 at 9:54 am,
    Mark Alan says:
  23. On May 14, 2012 at 10:24 am,
    Mark Alan says:


    • On May 15, 2012 at 9:17 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      Yes Mark.

      This is the annual “OH, we didn’t think the budget deficit was going to be THIS big this year….” cycle that happens every year by about May. I’ve been waiting since last year’s was ‘fixed’ in July. ‘California budget crisis’ could replace ‘summer’ as a season.

      Too bad. Would love near a coastline again, and I don’t do “East”.

  24. On May 14, 2012 at 11:23 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    The last 3 times silver crashed the one month lease rate came down to -.5%. It is flat right now.


    • On May 14, 2012 at 11:38 am,
      Mark Alan says:

      That’s actually a good sign.

  25. On May 14, 2012 at 11:32 am,
    Jerry O^OTB says:

    from the beginning when AL, started letting us comment on different subjects.
    The great thing is you do not have to read anything you do not want to read….

    just my three cents….worth……….O^OTB,

    • On May 14, 2012 at 12:06 pm,
      Jerry Mabie says:

      Tolerance cap off again. Getting to be a habit not that I wear one.
      Only one donation so far for the Irish gator suit. Times getting close.

      • On May 14, 2012 at 3:38 pm,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        Hello Jerry M…..glad to hear from you… not worry about the tolerance cap,
        or the gator suit……Mother’s Day , has come and gone, and Irish said he did not
        want to be a MOTHER….and THE queen has changed her diet to flaming duck, seems
        the gator teeth were hard for her digestion…..going in ok, coming out not ok….

    • On May 14, 2012 at 7:00 pm,
      castanheiro says:

      Hi JerryO^OTB,
      Appreciate your perspective.
      Thank you

      • On May 15, 2012 at 4:07 am,
        Jerry O^OTB says:

        thank you kind sir…….

  26. On May 14, 2012 at 12:04 pm,
    Tex says:

    and now for some more sad news…Dr Paul is slowing things down….

  27. On May 14, 2012 at 1:15 pm,
    Joseph says:

    Hi Al,
    Concerning religious issues. When you mentioned Gay mamrriage how is one suppose to answer. Where do you get your answers from.
    Furthermore every once and a while you seem to defend or promote the Roman Catholic Establishment(Catholic means world wide) I will not say church because it is the furthest thing from a Christians Church as you can get. My point being your establishment has killed, raped, molested and ruined the lives of millions upon millions of people in the past, today as well and will again in the future and I will not stand by while you deceive people. That is my duty as a believer in Christ. I will not sell my soul to anyone nor for any amount of money.
    I did my part advising you if you do not want to investigate that is up to you.
    Because of one day and one Christ hater you decide to take this stand so be it.

  28. On May 14, 2012 at 1:39 pm,
    Richard says:

    The momentum indicators don’t look good now for the PMs. However since we’re at support, it would be nice to get a bounce for the PMs. However, the bounce may be about $70 for gold and it may not hold. However, the stock markets are due for a bounce and the PMs seem to want to trade with the markets. That worries me since I’m pretty sure that the markets are entering a cyclical bear market which I’ve mentioned for some time. They have a lot further to fall. I actually bought a little of a couple of gold miners that are completely washed out. Also the dollar appears like it’s ready to run higher and that’s not good for the conventional markets or the PMs. I continue to be short the conventional markets, materials, banks and oil. However, remember the cyclical bear market for gold in 1974-1977—there was a 43% correction. I’ll repeat; this bull market isn’t over but we’ll have to develop a large amount of patience to endure the stress of the sideways to down movement. If you own the metal, hang in there. As far as the mining stocks are concerned, in the future weeks to months you will see values that will be unbelievable. If you think they’re “cheap” now, as they say; “you ain’t seen anything yet”.

    • On May 14, 2012 at 6:45 pm,
      Joseph says:

      You and Al would make great politicians.
      Join Obama or Romey
      Do not sign up with Ron Paul because he does not avoid the issues
      That is not your style

      • On May 14, 2012 at 8:10 pm,
        Richard says:


      • On May 15, 2012 at 7:54 am,
        Matthew says:

        What a bizzarre comment, Joseph. Last I checked, this is a financial site. To the best of my knowledge, Richard has stayed on point better than most of us; and certainly better than you have. I haven’t seen anything by Richard that might support your comments. Your judgement is baseless.

        • On May 15, 2012 at 9:56 am,
          castanheiro says:

          Hello Matthew,
          I was wondering where you were. Good to hear from you.
          Appreciate your excellent comments and analysis, and as usual
          you are spot on!

  29. On May 14, 2012 at 2:22 pm,
    Tony says:


    Thanks for the “Insight” that you will now edit some comments.

    I’m all for free speech but like you said yesterday’s rants made me go elsewhere.

    Everyone has opinions on religion and all other topics.

    I come to this site to discuss and learn about economics and finance. A little BS is alright too.

    keep up your good work

    any oh yeah – GO RPM Go.


    • On May 15, 2012 at 9:21 am,
      John W. Robertson says:

      Ya know, Tony, it might have made you go elsewhere. But my Alexa Toolbar shows Al’s world site rank spiked from 130,000 to 125,000 in just 3 days. That’s a big move for any site in the top 99.99% (which KER is, out of the world’s billion+ websites).

      • On May 15, 2012 at 10:00 am,
        castanheiro says:

        Hi John W R,
        That’s interesting data. That does seem like a very significant move in 3 days. Wow! Thank you for that.

  30. On May 14, 2012 at 5:20 pm,
    Dennis F. Brophy says:

    Hi Al, I agree with castanheiro, I`m so sorry about the religious rant and rave the other day. Al you have to keep this site free of those who want to wreck it with a ball and chain approach to people in general. As I believe that God is no respecter of persons as what we should be on this site. There is no room for abusive, rude, personal attacks, dealing with what one believes or not believes, we are a nation of free speech, not free to attack somebody with nonsense upon empty chatter with no end in sight, hour upon hour–go somewhere else, please! Go to `facebook` and rank and howl at the moon there. As far as I see it, this is Al`s site, what he believes is just fine, its HIS site. Cheap attacks about what he or his guests` believes, shows no class or respect for him whatsoever. Again this is Al`s site not yours or mine.

    • On May 15, 2012 at 9:39 am,
      castanheiro says:

      Thanks D. Brophy,
      Was just reading Karen’s comments and thinking about this issue of free speech, respect for differing views, and the negative sentiment regarding editing or censoring free speech. I won’t go into the arguements pro or con as that would take hours, and better men and women have taken that task in hand. The question seems to be how do we allow for free expression and yet have a means to corral or limit someone who cannot control themself and act responsibly and respectfully toward others. In basketball, you get 5 fouls and you’re out. In football, the refs can call foul play, cheap hits, dangerous actions(according to the rules in the rulebook) and can eject or sideline a player, or the commissioners can even penalize with fines and suspensions. In soccer, you can get a yellow card or a red card and be thrown out of the game. In hockey, you can be sent to the penalty box, etc… There are all kinds of examples in real life of how rules and regs have been set up to curtail, modify and control human behavior because some in society are not very good at “moderating themselves”. Maybe, and this is just to provoke thought, rather than “edit” remarks, Big Al could warn someone who is getting out of line, he being the Referee, ie. the “Sheriff”, and give them, say, 3 chances to ‘straighten up’. If they can’t be a big boy or big girl, then maybe they have to go elsewhere. Does this seem too hard or counter the principles of freedom? Are freedom and liberty, things that only work for mature and responsible people? Just asking. Let’s have some dialog on this.

      • On May 15, 2012 at 11:28 am,
        Jerry Mabie says:

        CH: Unfortunately there are no rules governing conduct on a site so in effect Al would be the arbiter. It is his site and I feel he has the right to govern it as he sees fit. From the posts I have read from Al I conclude that he bends over backwards to be fair and equitable with people that visit this site. OTB was right on when he suggested visitors simply sort through the comments and find the ones they are interested in. Personally I am inclined to look for sites that are only involved with pm’s and news. Religion is a personal issue and discussing it on a forum is an invite for problems. Only my opinion for what it used to be worth.

        • On May 15, 2012 at 4:49 pm,
          Jerry O^OTB says:

          JM….THANKS FOR THE MENTION….OTB (missing one eye, and I can’t see out of the other) O^OTB,,,,see even opposites can agree

          • On May 15, 2012 at 4:50 pm,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            oh, go gators

        • On May 15, 2012 at 9:59 pm,
          castanheiro says:

          Ahh Jerry Mabie,
          You make excellent points. Lest there be any confusion as to what I presume to know or intend to do, let me be clear that I know that neither I nor we are in charge. It was never my intention to suggest that we are the arbiters. However, Big Al has stated many times that we, all of us, are what make this blog work. He, Big Al, always encourages us to take a participatory role. Since the recent rantings came from one of the bloggers, it seemed only fitting that we participate in coming up with possible solutions. I assume that Big Al would ask us what we thought anyway, before he made a decision one way or the other, as he is wont to do. As well, my motive was equally directed in an effort to see how we all felt about this issue. By the way, I agree with O^OTB as well, that refusing to read what we don’t want to see is absolutely appropriate and an excellent suggestion, and I applaud him for that reasonable and sensible solution. I am not particularly disposed one way or the other. I assumed, erroneously, that readers here understood what I was trying to communicate, but obviously, I left to much room for misunderstanding. I generally try to write criptically for the sake of brevity, but I see this leaves critical information out. I will try to be more clear.

          • On May 16, 2012 at 4:24 am,
            Jerry O^OTB says:

            C..Hero…..thanks for the mention….appreciate….I agree with you,,,
            sometimes it is hard to write all that we feel, and express it on paper, sometimes
            it does not come off correctly…..but, the longer we write and participate, most,
            here come to know the participants, and can respect each others ideas…..
            even if we disagree, we can agree to disagree, and be friend….bottome line…
            this is a site for PM and Investing…..but, sometimes there is a lull in the action.

  31. On May 14, 2012 at 5:35 pm,
    Karen says:

    Hi Al,
    I found it troubling that you want to start editing comments. This is a great place to exchange ideas and also vent. As Jerry said everyone is free to read or skip over any comment. When discussing politics it is impossible to remove religion from the discussion.

    • On May 15, 2012 at 4:35 pm,
      Jerry O^OTB says:


  32. On May 14, 2012 at 6:20 pm,
    Keep Stacking says:

    Hi everyone,
    I am so not depressed that gold and silver prices are falling. This means more ounces for me. When the boyz get their fill, there will be a rebound in prices. Best to all.

  33. On May 15, 2012 at 5:06 am,
    Dennis F. Brophy says:

    Ron Paul has NOT Suspended and has NOT ended His Campaign There is a strategy shift: The campaign will not spend resources in primary states but WILL BE focusing on winning delagates in caucus states…Rest assured, he is not dropping out…We must now redouble our efforts. We our doing extremely well, and the chance of a brokered convention in Tampa is extremely good, and the delegates we have collected so far are many hundreds, unlike what the media is lying about. <<< There is a moneybomb coming up on May 17th. ….

  34. On February 1, 2014 at 10:56 am,
    Alansan says:

    TYVM you’ve solved all my prmboels