Trader Rog is looking for a big move to the upside for gold.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Trader Rog is pretty sure we will see a major move up in gold. Big Al sticks with his mid to long term comments.
Richard – I know you contribute your thoughts on a semi-frequent basis and most of the time I have no dispute with them, but I do question your use of SLV. The Sprott Silver ETF is out there and it seems to have a much higher level of credibilty in terms of a 1 to 1 ratio of silver supporting the shares. It also carries a higher premium to the NAV and that is a drawback.
However, some would argue that GLD and SLV are accidents waiting to happen (i.e. not enough commodity supporting the underlying shares) and by using these ETF’s you are supporting the manipulators.
Going down; I really appreciate your comments—-I do understand the frequent comments about the gld and slv ETFs and the feeling by many that they’re manipulated. With the recent spate of news to that effect I have this gut feeling that manipulation may become less rampant due to the spot-light now shining on it. But your comments are certainly appropriate and I once again appreciate them.
gdf…….I agree with your thoughts…..
but, Richard may be correct with a short term play on slv…since, the sheeple have not
caught on yet….., but, when the sheeple start getting in the market, slv will not be the
place to be….only, physical will be safe….
Correct; at this time there is probably a large unawareness of potential problems with the ETFs but I’ll exit them if and when we get a massive move in them. Speaking of potential problems with the paper markets of the PMs, you might want to read the following;
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120720KB_china_gold_scam.html
I agree with you. I believe that gold will continue to increase in value. The central banks throughout the world are buying as much as they can. I buy my bullion at http://www.cherishedgold.com . Check it out for yourself.
Thanks Margie
Big Al
I agree with Trader Rog. Except I personally think everyone is underestimating the explosive nature of the next move up. The paper game is over.
Jed…..I agree with you….. and Roger…..
Jerry AND Jed aka the “JJ” boys,
A big ditto to that….:)
Anybody that has been around the PM’s knows about or at the very least can read about the divisive destruction that SLV and GLD have had on the miners.
Their roles have been endlessly debated in the PM community.
Thanks to Trader Rog for putting it out there and Al for giving him the platform to do it.
Al, besides ownership of gold in physical bullion form and in terms of gold shares in the stock market, it would be nice to hear some guests who can speak to topics such as numismatic coins. I know your guests tend to not suggest these, but some such as Doug Casey have mentioned them in the last year in a positive light due to the historic low premiums on the common numismatic coins plus the rare coin market just like the fine art market continues to do well regardless of the current state of the economy. Thanks!
From KWNews
“I would also add that demand for gold from China is unceasing. The Chinese not only want to diversify out of dollars, but now they also want to diversify out of the euro as well. They are trying to do this in size. They want out of those currencies, and what they are doing is exchanging them at the fixes in London for gold, and this will surprise some people, but we are beginning to see it in silver as well.”
“It is absolute nonsense when people speculate the Chinese may stop buying gold and silver. When you see 315 tons of gold was purchased by China in the first five months of the year, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. That 315 ton figure that was recently reported is patently false. That’s just what they can’t hide. The actual amount of gold China has accumulated is many times that 315 ton figure.”
From the above.
One interesting note from today’s market action; the dollar was up, the conventional markets were up yet gold was up—-an interesting diversion and if it continues it’s another promising factor for gold.
I meant that the conventional markets were down big time.
Gold: 1385.60. Silver: 21.50
What?
caution, caution, caution, CAUTION!!!!!!
We might see a bit of a rally but i think will see Gold:1300. silver: 21.in the coming weeks. CAUTION!!!
Huh??
caution, caution, caution, CAUTION!!!!
I think there is a bit too much cheer leading going on again in regards to the “blast off” in the precious metals. Technically speaking, on a WEEKLY chart, the formation is a descending triangle, which means a consolidation is nearing an end
and the price CAN BREAK EITHER WAY….like Trader Rog says. However…
On a DAILY chart, there is also a symmetrical triangle, or pennant which has formed IN A DOWN TRENDING GOLD MARKET, which represents a “possible” continuation of the trend. A “painted tape” showing a break out in any direction could happen, resulting in a huge fake out to traders and investors, so caution is warranted.
I’m more with the good Doctor on this one, as I think we could still move up and be range bound, but I would NOT AT ALL THROW OUT THE IDEA that gold could go down to test $1450 to $1495 irregardless of how good the fundamentals are right now. I keep reading over and over again about how good the fundamentals are for gold, which they are and far outweigh the negatives, but no one seems to be looking at the fundamentals that are temporarily not great for gold. Things like capital liquidity to cover margin calls, pay off debts, panic selling by a hedge fund, dumping of GLD shares by hedge funds, and the fact that most “gurus” right now are only telling what they have heard from second hand sources and “connections”. This to me is completely lacking in credibility and all one has to do is go back and look at all their claims utilizing the same rhetoric and see that you can’t base your judgment on these people “claims” Also have reports out now regarding the gold scam in China, which I believe Richard posted. And as an aside, my sister called me yesterday to ask me when I buy my precious metals because she has been in the courtroom taking depositions on dozens and dozens of fraudulent scams regarding the purchasing of so-called “gold bullion”, when in fact, they are trying to sell so-called numismatics to uninformed people. This is causing a great scare in a lot of people who are completely ignorant about gold. It just sets a bad example and I don’t care how much money is setting on the “side lines waiting”, if investors are afraid of the precious metals, then they won’t go in. This could mean a longer period of consolidation than people think.
But despite all that, there is WAY TOO MUCH CHEER LEADING GOING ON REGARDING A BREAK OUT! Clay posted one of THE BIGGEST CONTRARIAN INDICATORS THERE IS….THE DREADED LONDON TRADER. Please, go back and check EACH AND EVERYONE of his interviews and go look what happens to the PMs just days after he is interviewed on KWN. Also, getting constant barrage of “to the moon any day”, or “the explosion will take your breath away”, and “$3500 within the next twelve months” Can it happen? You bet it can, but I would be willing to wager a $100 that it doesn’t happen as soon as everyone thinks.
I am beginning to lose a great deal of respect for some of these gold bugs and other PM analysts because now they are resorting to name calling when someone else doesn’t agree with their “opinion” or analysis. The man they call “Mr. Gold” is insulting a very credible economic forecaster/analyst simply because this analyst has bee more right than Mr. Gold in calling gold’s fall towards the 1490 area, while, Mr. Gold has done NOTHING BUT CONSTANTLY tout that “any day now..yada yada yada yada…ad nauseum. A broken clock is right twice a day.
Be smart, people. Seriously consider buying your precious metals IRREGARDLESS of the price now or next week because you are going to need them. But DO NOT GO OUT AND BET THE FARM or place any trades based upon all this cheer leading. I am almost tempted, as a trader, to take the opposite side of Trader Rog’s bet, simply because EVERY GOLD ANALYST I come across is saying the EXACT same thing. This is not investment advice, just a plea to use common sense and better judgment. You don’t have to be in at the exact bottom to make good money.
Stay frosty, or better yet,…chill out.
have a great weekend.
I could not agree more MA.
Bart and Corny,
Could you please provide and sound fundamental evidence that would support those prices you just threw out here on the blog? Thanks. Waiting for a reply.
Marc
Yo Marc!
Hey buddy, while I don’t quite agree with Bart’s or Corny’s prices, I do believe there still is a possibility of $1450 – HIGHLY UNLIKELY – but possible. see my post above. If it did happen, it would be VERY temporary.
Thanks Mark for your caution. I try not to get caught up in the “hype”. The dollar is going to get stronger although gold could certainly move with it as it has in the past. We may get a $100 move up that will get “everyone and their brother” excited but my gut tells me we’re in for a fairly long consolidation. If recent events haven’t moved gold I don’t think necessarily the seasonal factors will move it tremendously. A little bump up would be nice since it would probably reiterate that the bottom could be in.
Agreed Richard! Hear! Hear!
I am expecting the same as well. But I just can’t shake this strange feeling I have that there could be a quick drop to shake out some of those “leveraged longs”. Descending Triangles are known to do just that too; show a false breakout DOWN, only to reverse course and close back INSIDE the triangle. Then the next two or three days, the price blows out to the upside and “viola” the market begins it’s new trend.
If is does move that low…a ABSOLUTELY great opportunity to buy!
I’m not saying it will go down that far but I think its very posible. And the bigest reason would be deflation.
Mark I’m with you. However I too eventually see gold at $1,300 & silver at $21. THATS GOLD AT $1,300 HIGHER THAN IT IS NOW & SILVER $21 OVER ITS CURRENT PRICE. All in good time.
As you say get it now, you’ll need it later.
All the best.
LOL!! Yes! Exactly Rich! I too see that coming in the future and boy will that be a grand time!
have a great weekend!
Yep, down the road that and then some!
My weekly chart BS meter just hit it’s highest reading ever.
To quote Jim Sinclair;
” Classical deflation does not have a snowball’s chance in hell of occurring now for any length of time. ”
http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/06/25/the-day-of-the-deflationists/
Matt
With all do respect, please ask “Mr. Gold’ and Alf Fields, whatever happened to that bottom at $1619? Or the one at $1575? Or the one at $1550? Or the one at $1525? Oh, wait! What about the classic: “THIS IS IT!!!!” Yep, that sure panned out to be the “explosion” he was predicting. Where is that short squeeze that was suppose to take place in late February? You know, the one that was suppose to blast gold to over $2000? Oh wait! I know where it is! It got moved to March. Oh no, wait…it got moved to April. No, no, no…wait…it now got moved to May. Yeah, that’s it. Oh no? Oh, now it’s moved to June with an explosion any day now…yeah, yeah! That’s the ticket.
And what exactly is a “length of time” according to “Mr. Gold”? Because so far, he has been dead wrong and Martin Armstrong has been more accurate. I don’t agree with Mr. Armstrong’s low end price, but so far, downward gold has gone over the last ten months and NOT “over the moon”.
Richard and all:
Regarding the SLV etf that was mentioned above as long as anyone participates
in that vehicle they are contributing to the mechanism that is used to manipulate
the price, all serious PM investors should avoid those instruments like the plague!!!
Mark,with all due respect to Sinclair he has pretty much nailed it since the bottom and also nailed the last top in 1980.
Armstrong is a brain injured Ivy League schill.
Nobody does more for the gold community -and pays his own way to do it- than Sinclair.
I sense large doses of confusion on your part.
Matt
I can easily go back and look at Mr. Sinclair’s track record, thank you very much. I NEVER SAID he doesn’t know what he is talking about. What I said was that HE HAS BEEN WRONG OVER THE LAST TEN MONTHS. No, Mr. Armstrong IS BY FAR NOT A BRAIN DEAD SCHILL because if he was, then why has the government done so much to silence his work in the past?. Also, he has made some very respectful calls, both past and present. Mr. Armstrong, has been MORE CORRECT LATELY than Mr. Sinclair. That is all I am stating.
Also, I never said that Mr. Gold DOESN’T DO more for the gold community, what I said was he has resorted to name calling because someone doesn’t agree with his analysis and he keeps repeating himself the whole time gold has been going down during these last ten months. Sorry, Matt, but it gets old and it gets old fast.
If you think I am confused, well then so be it. But constant cheer leading DOES NOT ELEVATE the price of gold, and THAT is what this discussion is all about – the CURRENT price of gold versus the “desired” price of gold. If someone is wrong regarding their prediction, then they are simply wrong. But to act like they are not and keep making excuses about why, well, to me Matt, that just results in a loss respect. The facts are what they are, Matt. And those facts show VERY clearly that Mr. Gold has been wrong about the price projection over the last ten months versus Mr. Armstrong.
Now, long term, I definitely agree with Mr. Gold – hands down! But my statements were in regard to the price of gold over the last ten months.
enjoy the weekend and thank you for your counter criticism! I enjoy reading everyone’s opinions.
The paper market is still a very key player in all of this. I’m trying to keep this thing in simple terms. The central banks are buying gold, China, Russia etc continue to buy yet we remain in the 1570-1580 range. The financiers are not going to allow gold to take off until they are ready and this won’t happen until late 4Q (post election) or 2013. Opposites continue to happen. Just when you think you have this figured out gold drops along with the PM stocks. So here we are with a number of technicians stating that a break out is near. As I have already said, the paper market will determine gold’s path.
When the Fed and US reserve currency confidence game is up we are left with the ‘Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio’ to determine both the valuation of gold and the new US currency that will be established.
The POG vs US liabilities is detailed below but is now 16 months out of date:
Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities (as of the latest TIC report of March 2011) = $4.4792 Trillion.
90% of $4.4792 Trillion = $4.03128 Trillion.
China is $1.1449 Trillion, subtracted from $4.03128 trillion = $2.88638 Trillion.
Add back 50% of China = $3.45883 Trillion
Divide $3.45886 trillion by total Treasury Owned Ounces (as of April 29, 2011) of 261,498,899.316 = $13,226.94 per oz of gold
Sitting in a dark corner dozing intermittently with hat falling over his nose, he abruptly sits up.
“You mean there’s a chance that the fan is slowing down and the poop will just flush down the drain like it always does?”
“That my 25% PM allocation as “insurance” is about as useful as theft insurance on my Edsel?”
“That my energy and real estate investments are going to outshine the yellow shiny?”
“I guess I can live with that … Myrtle, let’s go out for lunch”.
The brilliant Ross Clark on Howe Street gives a more brilliant than usual interview, very clear in his anaysis as usual on gold and the dollar:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2012/07/dollar-index-and-gold-2/
He sees a dollar pullback to 79 in the shorter term and seasonal strength for goldin the shorter term but watch out, it’s a testy time.
I truly want the people of this board to make money. My top picks.
NES.V Newstrike Capital
GWY.V Galway Resources
PPI.V Passport Potash
Good Luck All
Al, I don’t often agree with Trader Rog but this time I’m tending to be in his camp technically. The fact that gold has not been pushed down over the last few weeks tell us how reticent gold is to go lower. I’m not that impressed with Trader Rog’s triangle since it is not a particularly strong one. I’m more impressed with the triangle formed with the top in Sept. of 2011 with a line drawn down along with the top Trader Rog mentions in March. That’s why if gold breaks out, I don’t believe it’ll be the significant move we would like. It in all likelihold would challenge the flag downtrend line of the larger triangle I mentioned and then move down again with support where gold currently is. Another reason gold may break out here is that we’re getting very close to the 200 week MA resistance of the dow/gold ratio chart. Also positive are the momentum indicators for gold which are no longer flashing a downtrend but instead are trading sideways. Another week of this and the odds are that the next move for gold would be to the upside. Are we ready to break up here—-yes; are we going to see new highs by the end of the year—-probably not. We have more work to do in this consolidation but it appears we’ve seen the lows for gold at this time. I might add that for the first time I began to start an accumulation of SLV today.