Predictions and Forecasts
September, 2012 To March, 2013.

Nasty Political and Banker Mercenaries Transcend Reality.

Believabilty has gone out the window with these clowns as the public at large catches on to their game. When ECB banker Mario Draghi told the world he would do whatever it takes to save the broken Euro, professional traders cringed. Even those not accustomed to these psychopaths’ views see the self-designated exalted ones as the pack of lying criminals that they are. Credulity has stretched beyond any rationality. Tolerance of reprehensible behavior has left the truth station, becoming way too thin as money weasels grasp at straws. Their old lie-and-print paradigm is in fast fade. What remains is guessing a smash date, not if we have one.

After watching the Tweedle Dum-Tweedle Dee performance of U.S. Treasury Secretary “Tiny Tim” Geither and “Chopper Ben” Bernanke these past few days, our take says they might have criminally indicted themselves relative to the LIBOR scandal discussion, which is spreading like weeds on a hot summer’s day.

The law requires a person to report a felony if you have knowledge of its inception. These wonderful leaders of the free world told our Congress that not only did they have knowledge of these crimes, but discussed them with the powers that be in Europe. So what does that make them since the LIBOR SCAM has been splendidly skipping along since Timmy and Benny had firsthand knowledge of this naughtiness for the last four years?

One would think: why was this not reported to higher authorities in the United States and also to the smaller banks being screwed by LIBOR pricing manipulators to the tune (some say) of over One Trillion US Dollars? Could this be because the weasely Tweedle Twins were up to their skinny pencil necks, in on the scam? Let us not forget Tiny Tim held a big power position in the New York Federal Reserve before he was crowned the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. Also, somewhere during that chaos, he forgot to report some US taxes. Whoops! Further, some reports said Timmy was pushing the New York Federal Reserve buttons, buying and selling
thousands of S&Ps to rig the markets! Timmy’s not too good at prevarication; as in lying. Watch the interviews and the furtive glances.

Ordinarily the High and The Mighty are spared the long reach of the law as They Are The Authoritarian Rulers of those very laws. However, now we see lots of the less famous, butnontheless still very powerful people, becoming very unhappy that their respective  banks were collectively robbed of over One Trillion Libor-managed dollars. One smaller bank has sued the whole 21 member list of miscreants…taking the old Wild West view of “Shoot ‘Em All First (with a class action lawsuit) And Sort ‘Em Out Later.”

This lovely epsiode appears to be firmly entrenched just before our US national voting day, which is making some people sincerely and severely unhappy. The regular routine following being caught red-handed is to shift blame onto others; preferably members of the opposite political party. Expect lots of this type of fun in the days ahead as pressures build both internationally and domestically.

Our wise Northern Advisor told us today in jest; “Rog, the markets are lookin’ good today. That is to be expected, since the Euro-land crisis is over, the USSA debt problem has been resolved, Japan has recovered, China is not in financial hot water, and the Muslims have promised to play nice.” Our reply was: “Gosh, we didn’t know that. If it’s true and they say it is, that means it’s all just barnyard material.”

On-Going Criminal Sagas Finally Step On One Too Many Trip Wires.

Eventually, the list of mistakes, lies and crimes will finally reach a threshold and it will cave-in on itself. Some very serious people will get quite mad and will be out for legal and political blood. This is the background framework of current news reports, media games and subterfuge on a grand scale.

Historically, nations go through phases from peace and calm into minor negativity. Then the over- arching story escalates to turmoil followed by a massive outbreak of outrageous name-calling and lawsuits. Later on, it sinks into super-ugly and momentum cannot be stopped as boundless, new treachery appears in more vulgar forms.

Is Mario Draghi among the first to be indicted at the pillory of law in Brussels? We think not, since he has a huge power base with both the ECB Brussels Headquarters Boyz (Europe) and with the cash and credit of the Ruler-Emperors at Goldman Sachs. You’ve gotta love those GS boyz. They’ve got it all covered being the largest private-public purveyor of credit and money (other than perhaps the Rothchilds and Rockefellers). When you own the US Treasury, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, World Bank, IMF, and the notorious bankers’ bank (Bank for International Settlements), you can pretty much do anything you wish. Right? Maybe. Maybe not.

This is where we are today, in our opinion. So what happens during the next four months? This should be an absolutely splendid movie of mayhem scaring the wits out of spectators and even those with a calm demeanor.

So what does this mess look like and what could happen? Let’s begin with the following “happy little note” reported by Zerohedge. This incestuous, nefarious little gang continues to regularly turn-up, once all the credit-banker-money rocks are turned over.

“EU Ombudsman To Probe Mario Draghi’s Conflicts Of Interest.

“First some German dares to suggest Mario Draghi’s ECB should be sued for getting a “bigger than god complex”, and now the EU’s ombudsman has the temerity to suggest Mario Draghi may have conflicts of interest due to his previous jobs, most notably at Goldman Sachs, a topic beaten to death on these pages…and various other factors. From Der Spiegel: ‘As soon as you (he) took office, there were discussions about his past in the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs…now does Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, have problems with the EU ombudsman? It’s about membership in an influential banking lobby organization. ‘What are the ‘other factors:’ Well, one is Draghi’s presence in the Group of 30, which as we have explained previously, is the real behind the scenes central planning group, which decides the fate and future of the world…The other factor? Mario’s son, Giacomo, who just happens to work as an interest rate trader at Morgan Stanley London. “ –Tyler Durden 7-30-2012 (Brevan Howard, European Central Bank Goldman

Sachs Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley)

This, Being The Tip of the Iceberg, What Else Could Happen?

So far, only the little baby nations like Iceland, Greece and Ireland have been over the edge. There might be a few more but these three are front page news. They have totally failed, but the credit damage amounts were so small compared to others on the continent, media-markets effects were minimal at worst.

However, what happens when Spain, or Italy slips over the credit cliff? Italy’s not on the firing line yet, but Spain is and they have stated publicly they can obtain only 20% of what they need to remain solvent in 2012. What happens when Spain does the bond-credit-dive? Spain is 12 times bigger than Greece. Uh-oh!

In our opinion, Spain may not be the one that smashes-up the ECB-ECM-IMF-Credit-Creation- Cabal, but what if it does? How do you stop a fearsome credit-bond slide that has enough power to make the Big Boy New York Banks insolvent to the point their entire capital base is destroyed? Whoopie do! Here comes TARP Number Four, or is Number Five? How is that supposed to work?

Recently, we heard that the US Congress approved a bill, or some rule, saying an audit of the Federal Reserve will be conducted. While that could be an FOMC Wheelbarrow Dumper, we can think of numerous ways they escape that event. How about stonewalling? How about some missing records? How about we can’t get the work done until 2024? Get the drift? It ain’t gonna happen.

We have no idea what Iran can and cannot do regarding their feared nuclear activities. However, they sure are a handy whipping boy for all things naughty in the Middle East. The administration has been busy War Shopping in an effort to produce a Wag-The-Dog election set-up tool, which can be used quite easily to (1) stall the November 6 national elections, (2) provide an excuse to attack Iran to steal their oil and gas and (3) spread the conflict toward other naughty boyz on no- fly lists lurking in the general neighborhood.

If you think this is a lot of hooey, please note that Quatar just ordered 200 Leopard tanks (those are huge). The Saudis ordered a passel of new USA fighter jets and missles. The US Navy has three carriers in the Gulf. We can assure you they are not there on summer maneuvers, or on a vacation. Also, the aforementioned do not intend to go gardening in the desert sands with all that fancy hardware.

In addition, there have been numerous open discussions on who has the best Bunker Busting Non-Nuclear Bombs for deep underground destruction (as in wreck the nuclear laboratories, AKA nuclear bomb factories). We heard of a bunker bomb test in one Southern state in the USA where one was dropped for damage measurement in some wild swamp, or something. The ground hole was the size of football field and the depth went half way to China. This baby probably moved some airborne alligators to the midwest. Next, it is reported Israel has a bunch of these little beauties ready to fly; whenever.

Probably this mayhem will never happen, but what if it did? Where is the price of Middle Eastern oil and gas in that instance? Watch for later 2012-2013 energy prices to skyrocket; not on supply shortage, but the threat of a loss of supply. We can easily see oil at $120 and maybe even $147- $150 again, if it is perceived to be nasty enough.

More than likely the current economic blockade sanctions are beginning to bite and there will be some “Magic Negotiated Breakthrough” at a propitious moment, spectacularly avoiding WW III, producing a hero president who is then subsequently re-elected to continue spreading socialism, or, is it genuine communism? Then, defense companies are once again a super growth industry along with takings and taxes.

China has been a powerful world economic engine employing millions of its citizens in a modern miracle combo of communist central planning ala capitalism in a hybrid mix of wild west investments, loosy-goosy accounting and a revolving door of leaders. As we reported a few weeks ago, the micro-loan street business keeps it all in play.

The naughty ones who had the unfortunate happenstance to get caught, quickly go to prison, or get summarily executed. This is to make an example. Thousands of them who have been recently minted as shiny, brand new milionaires, are grabbing the money and running to safer places in the West. The bribe money coming into a new foreign homeland works wonders. Politicians are only too happy to welcome them (and of course all their loot) with a shiny new citizenship quickly approved.

China’s On The Skids.

However, on China’s mainland and other bastions of related growth, GDP is sinking along with housing. Manufacturing is slowing, credit is being stretched to keep the game in play, all while keeping a smiling, game face-on. China’s numbers have been slipping for over eight straight months. We would call that a trend and it’s not a pretty one.

Why is this happening? Simple. China’s customers in Europe, Africa and Northern America are out of credit and cash. Chinese exporters are losing their business and thousands of factories are closing for good.

Housing is not only collapsing in China; but recent reports signal the same problems continue all over Europe and in North America. One of the last havens of good housing reports has been in Canada. They are not in a serious slump but Canada’s major newspapers report that a peak has been reached and sales are slowing down.

In the United States, housing hit the dumpster in June, 2005, on that date when we forecasted crashing lumber futures trading and the smothering wet blanket of credit derivatives. Housing lives and exists on credit and the bond markets. We all know where that game has been and it’s obvious where it’s going next.

Food prices are going to skyrocket on new inflation and protentially hyper-inflation in 2013-2014. Grain should be moving into rationing for at least 2-3 years due to higher Asian demands and major global drought. Food and fuel are “must haves” and those prices will rise steadily.

Water will become the new inflationary market in various parts of the world on shortages and pollution of existing sources. India recently, reported they have over 600,000,000 people blacked out in a massive power shortage as much of their electricity is provided by hydro-power. With drought and water levels so low, hydro installations cannot produce enough to match the Indian electricity demands. They are way behind on a back-up solution using coal fired power plants.

Not only are jobless numbers increasing in Asia in this global depression but in the US. Labor Department reports say new jobs are growing at a pace under 100,000 per month. We need 250,000 per month to sustain employment and move-up on a path toward decent growth. This means we are 2 1/2 to 1 heading in the wrong direction. Media pap spouts tepid growth of +1.5% and the fact we are slowly improving. Don’t you believe it. We are sliding backwards faster than ever in a spiral circling the unemployment drain. Our take is -2.5% growth. The last jobs report was nothing more than a Hail Mary to save the stumbling markets and a crashing Europe.

Global banks have about run out of credit bullets. It will be interesting to see if Benny and Timmy can pull another rabbit from the toxic-bond-credit-hat this fall. Last week they were having FOMC meetings to report later on, that they will be having more meetings. Nonsense. All they do is eat lunch and get limo rides.

Smart telephone manufacturers and marketeers are in new and fierce court battles all over the globe to grab control and legally whack each other to steal cash and gain competive edge. Some will lose and some will merge. Those with the most legal battle money and the nastiest lawyers can win some stronger positions. Meanwhile, Japanese electronics makers are on the skids.

Our point in discussing this, is this: The leading market signals from the Nasdaq tells us we are setting-up for a repeat of the 1999-2000 smash and crash event in these companies. Some are founded on nothing, with little, or no realistic hope of staying in business. Expect some of these companies to crash and burn while the good ones take hard-haircuts on stock values this fall.

The election primaries and the election itself will be the most vindictive, nasty series of electoral events on the planet, ever in history. We say Obama wins, the congress is divided and all kinds

Fourth Quarter News and Events.

Smart telephone manufacturers and marketeers are in new and fierce court battles all over the globe to grab control and legally whack each other to steal cash and gain competive edge. Some will lose and some will merge. Those with the most legal battle money and the nastiest lawyers can win some stronger positions. Meanwhile, Japanese electronics makers are on the skids.

Our point in discussing this, is this: The leading market signals from the Nasdaq tells us we are setting-up for a repeat of the 1999-2000 smash and crash event in these companies. Some are founded on nothing, with little, or no realistic hope of staying in business. Expect some of these companies to crash and burn while the good ones take hard-haircuts on stock values this fall.

The election primaries and the election itself will be the most vindictive, nasty series of electoral events on the planet, ever in history. We say Obama wins, the congress is divided and all kindsof mayhem pops up. Voter fraud will be rampant; especially in Chicago, Philadelphia and Nevada. Expect violence at some polling locations and the number of related lawsuits being legendary.

We think Obama is impeached (unsuccessfully) in the aftermath of his election victory. However, we also predict he is ousted from office in a sea of scandal perhaps involving women, fraud, and a host of charges relative to his activities within major departments of the national government. He might have a nervous breakdown, or just resign under the immense pressures we see coming. No more perpetual vacations, golf, or hip-hopping to the podium with a smirk that says I’m in charge and I know it all. Other nations and their leaders, especially our enemies, will be having a great laugh over this protracted messy episode, unknown until now in American history. In the aftermath, the US will be a public laughing stock of the entire world… a national embarrasment.

The order of events from Labor Day through Inauguration Day are difficult to forecast. This is because there are so many things that can shift the tides of power, including but not limited to, delaying the national election, Middle Eastern war, or some prominent officials forced to resign in shame, or under indictment. Also watch for a raft of new books with background revelations so severe, many lives will be ruined in disgrace. One new book talks about Obama’s early days’ mentor, being a member of the Chicago communist party. Old news to us.

Commodity investors with millions are re-entering markets buying with both hands. They can see rising inflation and shortages. They see political tomfoolery and illegal activities. These are smart traders who see and predict prices and the bottom line. Nations need lots of commodities to build, grow and produce. Shortages are real and will grow worse on bad politics, credit and other man- made messes. Control risk and trade carefully.

The precious metals stocks (the best of the best) will begin to react almost immediately when gold and silver begin new rallies. However, most of them usually take 2-4 weeks longer in a precious metals reaction before any substantial shares movement.

Follow monthly charts first and discover the best time of year for your favorite markets. Then, work backwards using weekly charts followed by dailies. For the most part, we have learned that swing trading (a few days to a few weeks) is easier to manage for us.

However, some traders enjoy the scalping game doing 150 trades each day finishing the session and then going flat overnight. Find what suits you best and above all control risk first. The balance of your earnings will often take care of them selves.

Roger Wiegand is the writer and editor of Trader Tracks Newsletter for gold, silver and energy traders. Roger provides recommendations for short and longer term traditional stock shares, futures and commodities trading with specifics for individual trades. Listen to Traderrog reports and editorials on the Daily Market Close on the Korelin Economics Report website www.kereport.com. Visit Kitco.com for essays and audio.

Stay tuned for more of Traderrog’s insights and predictions via his exciting new daily audio subscription. Coming soon! Details at www.wavelengthpublishing.com