Al's Insights – Sat 11 Aug, 2012

A couple of personal comments.

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Featuring:
Al Korelin

Comments:
  1. On August 11, 2012 at 2:38 pm,
    Keep Stacking says:

    Hi Big Al,
    When I get angry about anything, I just buy some silver. At these prices, buying silver puts a smile on my face. Best to you.

    • On August 11, 2012 at 4:22 pm,
      irishtony says:

      Hello KS….. Smiley happy silver. As i have stated before, i dont keep any cash in the bank. Whenever any is paid in i just leave what’s needed to pay bills, the rest i take out, & a portion i put into silver….that’s my saving account. I recommend to family & friends to save in PM’s & i am glad to say some do.

      • On August 11, 2012 at 4:59 pm,
        Keep Stacking says:

        Hi irishtony,
        Thanks for your wisdom regarding a silver lining for your savings account.
        Very Best to you.

      • On August 25, 2012 at 1:18 pm,
        Suet says:

        Oh my, I love this entry. It’s my first time here so I was pretty shckoed when I finally read the part where you revealed why you broke up. Love how it was written. Gay pride! My bro had a somewhat similar experience. He’s gay din.Congratulations!

  2. On August 11, 2012 at 2:39 pm,
    John W. Robertson says:

    Al,
    You got a refund on your audit?! And I though an NCA was good…

    If the country was made up of Al’s (and Shoobeedowa’s too, I’d say), the budget would be balanced, there’d be no debt, and unemployment would be around 2%. Alas, it’s human nature for the masses to take anything that can be offered. Being of one nationality or of one generation will never change that quality when the rationality of crowds is concerned.

    The concept of compounded doubling (debt, resource use, population growth, anything really) has been well documented, but it’s lessons are usually forgotten per the above weakness. Einstein noted it. The 7th attempt to double something, for example, is always the maximum breaking point. i.e. (an empirical example) try folding any piece of paper in half seven times, no matter how thin or large it is.

    If debt has truly doubled 5 times per the article Jerry posted, the 6th attempt to double it will be the last possible doubling (which I believe has happened already…not certain about the debt-doubling cycles of the article). For reference, here it is again for those who missed it:

    http://moneymorning.com/ob/economist-richard-duncan-civilization-may-not-survive-death-spiral/

    The pertinent part of the article reads:

    “It’s a pattern that’s hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction,” Dr. Moors says. “At first, it’s almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again – in shorter and shorter periods of time – until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system.”

    Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern.

    “For 30 years – from the 1940s through the 1970s – our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable,” he says. “But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that.

    “Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s… By 2011 that figure was 357%.”

    • On August 12, 2012 at 2:25 am,
      Shoobedoowa says:

      Mr. Korelin, I thank you for carefully considering my arguments, whether you agree with the line of logic that I have presented, or not. Also, thank you to Mr. Robertson for your views and feedback. And yes Mr. Robertson, I believe that you do indeed have me pegged rather well, and that the little trio in this specific series of posts have much more in common than not, however, I remain insistent that my contention on this very specific issue remains standing.
      And Mr. Korelin, I should have more specifically stated the “old fart” label as a generalization in being a member of (as opposed to you specifically) a certain cohort of mostly like minded people with respect to that specific issue which you originally commented on. A cohort of which I may not…..or may belong to, depending on who’s looking at me. Sorry if any personal offense was taken…….of course, my fault if so. I barged into your forum in a rude fashion, but given your honest effort to understand my point of view, you are owed a tone of respect…..not to be mistaken for soft pitches.

      As my repeated posts now seem to have turned me into a troll of sorts, I will try to summarize through an attempt at simplicity, and an analogy.

      In Summary:
      Mr. Korelin (and others), contributed (without choice) to a fund, to which they were entitled a return. The fund was then stolen.
      Up until that theft occurred, Mr. Korelin was indeed entitled to the return of some of, or all of, or more than his contributions. However, that theft and the subsequent and immediate invalidation of the model at that point in time, RETROACTIVELY converted Mr. Korelin’s past and future contributions into a tax, such that from that point, both forward and BACKWARD, it turns out that he never made any contributions after all.
      Other than marching on Washington and demanding that the funds be repatriated from whence they were spent (now impossible), Mr. Korelin’s only other option is to be paid “his” funds through increased deficit spending (which is the only realistic way that it would be and is funded at this time, and in the future), thus taking them predominantly from those much younger than him, the majority of which (due to the size of the imbalances relative to production)……are unborn. The young and unborn have no voice, other than of those present who would advocate for them.
      Regardless of what we wish, this seems to me to be where we are at.

      An analogy:
      You (or we, the collective voting block) sit at home reading some papers in your home office. You are careless and leave the doors unlocked. A stranger walks into your home, picks up your coffee maker, and walks away with it. It happens right under your nose, such that, if you had bothered to look up, you would see him walking away with it, but you do not bother to chase after him. After all, you were busy with other stuff.
      Later, you find that you want to use your coffee maker, but yours is gone. So you walk across the street, down a few doors, and find an unlocked home. You go in, take that coffee maker………and now you are even.
      Or, more accurately, you call up the local swat team and have them kick someone else’s door down…… anyone else’s door, guns drawn, and seize that owner’s coffee maker, and deliver it to you. Thus, you are now even, and can sleep comfortably.
      My argument is that to seek this type of “reimbursement” is immoral. Mind you, we all have our own views, and I admit that one could do much worse.

      Mr. Korelin, one can easily mistake disgust for anger. Disgust at the shallow, weak, flawed reasoning that many of us use as a basis to justify stealing (or extorting, if that term is more acceptable) from those who cannot fight back, via the present reality of further deficit spending. I am OUT. I have no chips in the game. I have sought small government, and I have found it in the form of personal sovereignty. I no longer feed the Leviathon, and I will never collect from it. I am in no position to be angry with the situation. I have found my first taste of freedom, and will not be giving it up.
      However, I am disgusted at what I left behind. I will observe from a distance, the multi-fronted wars between all of the takers……. the PENSIONERS, vs the welfare bums, vs the racial minorities, vs the illegal immigrants, vs the public sector workers, vs the mouth breathers (union members) vs ………and so on. As the financial nooses tighten, and it becomes more difficult to escape, it will eventually become the world’s largest cage match. I see almost everyone grabbing for scraps that they do not deserve, and I have preemptively removed myself from the upcoming fray. I left because I do not want to consider myself as a part of what most of Western society has become.

      Incidentally, although only theoretical, as it would not be possible at this point…….I believe that if the Social Security System were to be reinstated as per it’s original model……even without the trust funds which were supposed to be in place to date……in my opinion, the model would eventually flourish and become a raging cash cow, in spite of very anemic future employment prospects. This may sound good when I type it fast, but my expectation is that this new stability would be naturally achieved as the result of a massive reduction in life expectancies due to the upcoming decline in living standards…..along with an accelerated progression towards a totalitarian (read more violent) state……and of course, the ensuing mayhem. My view is that it is getting to be about time to buckle up……..real tight.

      Also, at this point, I should admit that an important piece of the structure of my argument has been somewhat deceitful as well. It relies on the assumption that the voters should have stopped or reversed the plunder of the social security trust fund. In theory, this is true, as ultimate responsibility is supposed to land in the lap of the voters, and it is their duty to make themselves aware of such issues, and to act accordingly. However, in reality, I realize that this is a fantasy, thus the deception. In all truth, I agree with an old quote from Mark Twain, which was: “If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it”.

      In case I slip back into the shadows of this forum, I would like to give a special kudos to Dr. Richard for his charitable and generous opinions to this venue. My mother is a medical doctor who should have retired several years ago…….an ancient energizer bunny if you will, so I know many of your type. I have a pretty good idea of what it takes to get up to whatever rung you may be at on Maslow’s ladder. I consider it inspirational that you can have such a solid understanding of investment trends as well, among probably several other skills. I, and I am sure many others, appreciate and often consider your comments carefully. Thank you for your generous contributions, not just here……but I’m sure elsewhere and in other manners. Very kind of you, Sir.

      And Mr. Korelin, thank you for allowing my opinions to be posted. Kudos on your own little first amendment thingy.

      • On August 12, 2012 at 7:14 am,
        irishtony says:

        Hello SHOOBEDOOWA . I have to say i agree with a lot of what you wrote over the last couple of days . I’m glad you have come to see what AL stands for , & his tolerance to comments made on his site, while he might not always agree with some of our comments , he still allow’s us FREEDOM OF SPEECH . The fact that we can agree, & disagree with each other, makes for healthy & educational debate, which should make us all, better able to cope with this time we live in…..Stay with us , as we all learn from each other. Good health to you & yours.

        • On August 13, 2012 at 9:51 am,
          Big Al says:

          Thanks Mr. Irish,

          Always appreciate your insightful thoughts! No joke, sir!

          Big Al

      • On August 12, 2012 at 3:52 pm,
        Richard says:

        Thank you very much Shoobedoowa. I can understand what it took for your mother to obtain what she did. I’ve practiced medicine for years and still do minimally. You reveal the frustration that many of us have for years. Many of us saw this coming especially in the SS system but knew (even with our vote) we couldn’t reverse the malfeasance of our system. Mortal man has this habit of shooting himself in the foot even when history reveals to us time and again the repetition of our madness. When I practiced medicine I saw the basic lack of caring by the system for the very people the system should care for. I can honestly say that I practiced to “cause no harm”. I did not practice for a “return on investment” at the expense of the people I served. In fact, when I pointed out many times the unnecessary surgeries and testing of a minor of individuals I had invective spewed my way. Later through evidenciary medicine I was ultimately proved to be correct in my assessment. I saved my competitive nature for business outside medicine—I’ve done better there financially then my practice of medicine. I could never look myself in the mirror if I put myself ahead of any person that walked through my office door. You should be proud of what your mother has accomplished and evidently she raised a son? she should be proud of.

        • On August 13, 2012 at 9:15 am,
          Shoobedoowa says:

          Thank you for the reply doctor. Your attention to detail picked up that I have not stated that, yes, I am a son. And yes, your approach towards patient care goes without saying. You generously share your valuable market views, while you are clearly not promoting anything or trying to lure suckers into paying up for a newsletter (not to insinuate anything about others here). From your level headed analyses, you seem to a professional of some type, and a high road type of guy which is why I wanted to thank you. And thanks for reading my extensive rambling in the first place.

          My personal feeling is that most doctors that I have known (at least in Canada, as their salaries are capped), are largely sincere in their fiduciary duties. However, doctors are only a tiny part of the Goliath known as the “healthcare system”, and the rest of it is primarily a huge parasitic blob. I feel that nurses also tend to be highly qualified and very good, but the fact that they are mostly unionized in Canada, has, over time, distorted the actual priorities of many. Doctors in Canada are not unionized, and certainly not overpaid.

          To toot my mommy’s horn a little (she would never do it)……keeping in mind that the Canadian health care system has basically always been “free” to use, so is quite abused……
          We grew up on a farm, so my mother was a farmwife, and still holds a core belief in common sense, eat your veggies, get some exercise, stop doing that stupid thing that you do, etc. Given that she is now one of the oldest doctors in the region, I think she gets a lot of leeway. She has developed a bit of a crusty old reputation for being quite “stern” at times with those who are personally irresponsible with their health…..maybe a symptom of getting increasingly tired of the “same old”. Yet at the same time, of the many times that I have met her the hospital, she seems well liked, and I have never met anyone who gets so many flowers, crafted gifts, homemade foods, etc, delivered to her home for going out of her way for her patients. She really is quite a machine and good at what she does.

          Me, I was just a technical guy. But, later in my career, I ended up spending a period Stateside running my own company with my (mostly) Canadian employees working exclusively with one of the biotech giants there for several years. As cynical as I am, I have to say that the corporate culture of integrity and honesty in that particular company, at least at the “getting things done level” was quite admirable, and I enjoyed my time there, and have many lasting friends from the experience.
          Hence, I have developed a real interest, and limited familiarity with the health care industry (racket?).

          As an aside, I personally do not advocate that generous people give to such unquestionably noble causes as cancer research, as I’ve been at the other end of where many of those funds go. I previously commented about a society of takers?……yep, they are there too.

          • On August 13, 2012 at 11:25 am,
            Big Al says:

            If we ever meet, I will tell you about a similar experience that I had involving both a church and “non-profit”.

            Best,

            Big Al

      • On August 12, 2012 at 4:09 pm,
        Vortex says:

        Shoobedoowa,

        I have waited a few day’s since you’re first post for the flames to subside before I responded to you.

        I would like to validate your position that was already stated with an emphatic and resounding 100% in agreement on your analysis of SS and the fraudulent, unsustainable, corrupted ponzi scheme it was and is. All of it was and is completely built on a foundation of lies and fabrication.

        I rail against the pathetic political system here as well. And as you might suspect, I don’t make to many friends. Most folks just really are not welcoming when the unvarnished truth meets head on with a legacy paradigm of lie’s and tyranny that will collapse.

        That which cannot be paid will not be paid. I, just as you have already made preparations to leave this burgeoning third world country (USA) when I deem it fully necessary. That time is fast approaching.

        I travel extensively between North America and Asia and I have a fully paid for home in Asia that will and is my safe-haven outpost. Asia will feel the effects of the default but it will be much better than the militarized war zone that will be America.

        When the free-loaders, illegal aliens, welfare queens, and social degenerates loose their free **** from wealth redistribution this place is going to be a freaking war zone. Good luck and hope you stick around.

        take care

        V

        • On August 13, 2012 at 9:28 am,
          Shoobedoowa says:

          Vortex, thanks for chiming in. Yes, as you would expect, I know your type:)

          A word of warning just in case you haven’t got it covered yet. But, with a home in Asia already, you probably are set up with everything else already. However, I’ll point it out anyway for others who may read it and have not thought it through far enough…….

          Exiting consist primarily of two components.
          1. Getting yourself out cleanly…..not too much of a problem….yet anyway.
          2. Getting your assets, savings or what you’ve worked for and managed to keep to come along for the ride is getting tougher. It is not just what you see in your own country…….exit taxes will get stricter, global reporting requirements, etc.
          The fence is flung far and wide, and the holes are getting patched up ever more rapidly. On a frequent basis I learn of yet another country or specific international or foreign banking company who won’t allow you to open a simple account. Just a few weeks ago, I tried to open another account at another Asian country, and they said that they never had a problem before, but as of three weeks before that……..no accounts for Westerners. For those considering……..if you don’t have your ducks lined up…..like yesterday…….you may not have anywhere to go with anything but the shirt on you back.

          Also Vortex, I received a link that I think an anarchist nutcase like you might get a kick out of, even though I’m sure you’ve seen many of this nature. If I were to keep my rant very short, it might sound something like this:

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lWaLlj4xXI&feature=player_embedded

          • On August 13, 2012 at 11:27 am,
            Big Al says:

            You know Shooby,

            Sometimes I think that we are all anarchist nutcases!

            Big Al

      • On August 13, 2012 at 9:48 am,
        Big Al says:

        Don’t even think about leaving this site, Shooby.

        Your comments are very valuable to everyone here.

        I also have to say that I respect your actions assuming that I understand them correctly.

        Best,

        Big Al

    • On August 13, 2012 at 8:57 am,
      Big Al says:

      John W,

      If this doesn’t make a person stop and really think, nothing will!

      Big Al

  3. On August 11, 2012 at 3:42 pm,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    There is always somebody saying the world is going to end. Of course, they might be right. Interesting to read Liaquat Ahamed’s book ‘Lords of Finance’ on the 1929-1933 crashes and banking collapses.

    Page 451:
    “Americans adapted to life without banks remarkably well – the intial reaction was not of chaos but co-operation. Storekeepers extended credit lliberally and doctors, lawyers and pharmacists provided services in return for IOUs,” etc.

    I like that. However, this time, I see some problems with this scenario translated to the present day:
    1. Many people are “narcissistic and aggressive” as a commentator on the forthcoming collapse has observed. This did not seem to be true in Japan though, as we saw after Fukushima but likely to be true in the West. The Japanese were seen to queue up in line for water with tremendous discipline and fortitude.
    2. Just In Time inventories are everywhere, in food, medicine and other vital resources.
    3. The vital goods and services are provided by huge corporate entities and bureaucracies, rather than by local networks.
    4. Population is higher than in the 1930s
    5. Very many people do not have good credit so how will they get credit from the local store?
    6. Government regulation may prevent all these local solutions.
    So any crisis is likely to be much worse then in 1933 in the USA for instance.

    On the other hand, Ahamed paints a picture of the army on the streets in Washington during Roosevelt’s inauguration on 4th March 1933. He describes 1000 people watching :
    “Roosevelt being sworn in on the steps of the Capiol, they were watched over by army machine guns. It was like a ‘beleagured capital in wartime’ wrote Arthur Knock of the New York Times.”

    Since government and hughe corporations control these resources, maybe the solution will be martial law, forced rationing, etc. Remember New Orleans? Maybe the Western world will be like New Orleans after the hurricane./-

    On a more anecdotal note, at this time in the British summer, I see a gigantic contrast between the happy people at the London Olympic Games, especially as shown on television, enjoying life and the unemployed and unemployable social security recipients on the housing estates in my home town, screaming and swearing every day at their spouses and children in the most foul language – and the fact that the UK has just tipped into recession again.

    • On August 11, 2012 at 4:45 pm,
      irishtony says:

      KS…..Re the Olympics………The Government & the BBC, are trying to portray to the world that everything in the UK is fine , & everybody is happy. I live in a deprived area of the UK, & i can tell you a lot of people here don’t watch or care about the games..WHY ?…Because they are too busy trying to survive, & i am sure that applies to a lot of the UK…………What’s going to happen when the game’s end & the feel good factor wears off……BTW i have enjoyed the games, shame people of different …..countries…race…..& religion cant get on & respect each other, in real life, as they have in the games…….im sure they would like to but their MASTERS wont let them………DIVIDE & RULE.

      • On August 13, 2012 at 9:37 am,
        Big Al says:

        Morning Mr. Irish,

        I agree with you COMPLETELY on your statement regarding how the athletes got along.

        I watched a lot of the Olympics and I was very impressed with 99% of the athletes. Couple of them seemed to be pretty sore loosers, but people are people!

        Best to you,

        Big Al

    • On August 13, 2012 at 9:30 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Silverbug Dave,

      The situation in New Orleans was frightening to me. As are the situations in many of our major cities surrounding the various protests.

      I think that there is a lot of truth in your comments.

      Big Al

  4. On August 11, 2012 at 3:44 pm,
    Silverbug Dave says:

    Correction: 100,000 people watched the Roosevelt inauguration.

  5. On August 12, 2012 at 6:18 am,
    Stustev says:

    Al,
    I am 59 years old. I have two companies and employ almost 100 people. I disagree with your statement that anger never accomplishes anything. Misplaced or repressed anger always results in negative consequences. Using the anger to spur you to action will result in positive results. Focusing on the reason for the anger is important. I have seen great things accomplished by individuals using anger as one component of their motivation.

    • On August 12, 2012 at 3:56 pm,
      Richard says:

      I would say there is a place for “righteous anger”. If you use that “righteous” anger in a productive mode, positive results often are obtained.

    • On August 13, 2012 at 9:50 am,
      Big Al says:

      Morning Stustev,

      I was perhaps a bit simplistic in that comment.

      I do agree with you. It is my experience that anger forces me to think once I get over the emotion. My thinking has led to some pretty good results of late.

      Best to you,

      Big Al

  6. On August 12, 2012 at 10:09 am,
    frr says:

    JustFGC – Mini Midas
    -> Posted by frr @ 12:52 pm on August 12, 2012 :: Edit post
    Please post todays Mini Midas, as i find it extremely important. Also the end about Judge Tinder ruling on segregated private client accounts. from here on banksters can handle the former sanctified costumer acc’s as their own assets; This is totally undermining any property rights guaranteed by the US constitution and bringing the US further to the brink of a lawless banana failed state.
    It’s quite astonishing how the Wall Street banksters played their own admin for chumps just to live and reign supreme another day. The rest of the globe, still believing in the US as their necessary protector, are waking up to the fact that the US has only one goal – to keep the status quo for its own fascistoid upper echelons intact for the foreseeable future. The collateral damage now reaching to about 95% of its own population, not counting or caring for any other country is of no consequence to the perpetrators, as long as their own deeds are hidden and hiding by blaming others -like the EU and its €, the Arab Spring, the BRICs, and even the tea party(-sans).
    Can’t believe the coming elections will make a difference and thereor will further invest in gold and silver, be it bullion, coins or stock. I admit to have built up my silver position much more than gold lately, as I quit to accumulate Au over 1.000 $; Silver I still buy around $27 as well as some Ag stocks …
    SVM, ASM and PAAS – after having trouble with Navidad (used to be stolen from IMA)and all having had trouble seem to come into my buying range now.

    Sorry for another rant – I shan’t do it too often – though the US admin’s arrogant style is not very subtly drawing some former friends to vigorously contest and lastly detest this state of affairs.
    Maybe, I’m totally wrong, though all the stats (even Shadow Stats, John Williams) are seemingly vindicating my view, I’m acting on my beliefs and hope you will forgive my rant ( As Austria’s Boden Credit Anstalt was dubbed the main global bank to crash in 1929 and therefor lit the incindiary match to the global depression of the 1930′s).
    Who’s turn will it be now?

    released on Gold tent as well … hope that’s ok!

    • On August 13, 2012 at 11:12 am,
      Big Al says:

      Enjoyed your comments frr. Thank you!

      Big Al

  7. On August 12, 2012 at 12:16 pm,
    irishtony says:

    frr…….keep the rants coming….its interesting to read , & its good for your blood pressure.

  8. On August 13, 2012 at 8:55 am,
    Brad H. says:

    I also feel good about buying silver at these prices. I’m just waiting a bit longer for a little leverage as well… As for my fam and friends, only a few of them are buying PMs, most are fed a load of you know what from their Buffett following financial advisors. I am amazed at how many financial advisors quote him word for word and advise based on his useless asset philosophy on gold. Good stuff Big Al. Keep truckin’

    • On August 13, 2012 at 11:22 am,
      Big Al says:

      Many thanks Brad H.

      Big Al

  9. On August 14, 2012 at 1:24 am,
    cfs2000 says:

    Al, Do I disagree with you over social security pay-back!!!!!
    Here’s why.

    I worked and paid social security (The maximum amount required, because I was earning above the cap.) I, at the same time put in to a savings account an amount equal to my social security payment. (Because I knew I was going to retire early – as it turned out in my forties. By the time I was 65 that savings account, originally only funded by the equivalent of social security payments was standing at over $800,000. So to my thinking…..even if I live to 100 years of age social security will NEVER pay me back what I paid in. The scheme was, is and always will be a Ponzi scheme!