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Thursday Market Close

Big Al
November 8, 2012

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Discussion
21 Comments
    Nov 08, 2012 08:23 PM

    The Irish are losing it, that according to Gerald Celente, apparently the situation in Ireland is close to martial law.

    What is this I’m hearing IT! DT

      Nov 08, 2012 08:18 PM

      Are you referring to Ireland or Greece, Machine Gun?

      Big Al

        Nov 09, 2012 09:23 AM

        DT……….i think you are referring to Greece, i watch the irish news everyday, Ireland is not doing too badly………..Greece on the other hand is going from bad to worse, the last national strike a few days ago, they even had 40 uniformed police officers protesting outside parliament , now that’s saying something.

    Nov 08, 2012 08:31 PM

    Gold breakout appears to be here while the people in the media were predicting a retest of 1530.

    New email update rec’d from expected returns:
    As we head straight for an economic collapse, I will try to speak the truth about what’s occurring. When it’s time to be bullish, I’ll be bullish. But now is not one of those times.

    Investing is all about keeping a clear head while everyone loses their minds. I try not to be unduly pessimistic; in fact, all my personal investments over the past 2 years have been on the bullish side. The thing is, I am more positive about this sovereign debt crisis than I was about the housing/financial crisis of 2008. We are in big trouble. Our country is deeply divided, which means much-needed structural reforms won’t occur. I’ve never seen this kind of division in our nation before, and I’m very concerned. I can guarantee you that the wealthy who create all the jobs in America are scared out of their minds because Obama has made them out to be scapegoats. They will be flocking to foreign countries in record numbers- I am very sure about this.

    Long-Term Trends

    Long-term trends develop very slowly and are pretty easy to spot. Right now we are in the process of witnessing Europe implode, with Greece and Spain taking the lead. In Greece, protests and riots are breaking out because the government just voted for higher taxes and more austerity. With unemployment hovering above 25%, this is just an insane prescription, and there is no doubt in my mind that Greece is headed towards a historic collapse. France is going nuts as well with their 75% tax on the wealthy. These are some troubling trends.

    Equities continue to sell off following Obama’s election. I would keep cash on hand for its optionality; in other words, buy when things get cheap. I suspect unemployment will rise above 10% in the next 4-year cycle, so there should be ample opportunity to get positioned on the long side.
    Disclaimer: 1. This newsletter is for informational purposes only. I am not a registered investme

      Nov 08, 2012 08:38 PM

      Great observations, Paul L!

      Big Al who, by the way, agrees

    Nov 08, 2012 08:54 PM

    US unemployment is nearing 25% with Spanish unemployment over 50%.
    The official unemployment in Greece is 25%.Greek friends tell me 50% is possible.
    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
    Of course,the conventional markets are tanking.They were PPT’d up into the election.
    Metals and PM stocks are doing an end route for investors AFTER having sold off for 1.5 years and the latest seven week correction.
    Metals have done nicely from the moment it was clear Obama won,despite the CRIMEX and their minions attempting to swell the tide.
    If you are a PM investor,this is what you studied and anticipated would happen.
    I am not a registered investment advisor,either,but the PM market up/coventional market down has been a two year train wreck slowly waiting to unfold.
    Profitable metals producers will be rolling in dough and so should their SP’s when the broad market participants that are about to get fleeced finally wake up to what a real bull market looks like.Hello.

      Nov 08, 2012 08:39 PM

      Hello for some and good bye for others.

      I believe that we are in the hello camp!

      Big Al

    Nov 08, 2012 08:59 PM

    Apple is falling. Down about 24% at 537. We always hear about gold crashing in the media when it down a few percent but they ignore Apple which is really crashing down and headed to 500 at which time it may bounce but head lower in the long term. Too many Apple fans including the media. So called experts were calling for 1000 and even $1500. They all hate gold but that has been rising while the market has been down sharply for 2 days. Gold is rising with the dollar now. Gold stocks are creaping up slowly. Apple will face stiff competition from Samsung which is already outselling them in smarthphones and their phones are better in my opinion.

      Nov 08, 2012 08:40 PM

      All I can say, is think with your mind and don’t loose your head to emotions. I believe that fear is right around the corner, Paul L.

      Big Al

        Nov 09, 2012 09:06 AM

        Yes Big Al,
        When people become fearful, it is time to become greedy. Best

    Nov 08, 2012 08:38 PM

    Blackberry and Samsung are the market’s choice in Indonesia.
    In the two years to December 2011 the mobile subscriber base grew from 150 million to 260 million. As penetration passed the important 100% milestone, there was still considerable potential for further growth in the market. Consumer interest has started to shift to the 3G services being offered by the operators and take up of mobile data services is certainly on the rise, as evidenced by a significant surge in the sale of smartphones in 2010/2011.
    The number of internet users in Indonesia was estimated at 24 million by early 2012.

      Nov 08, 2012 08:41 PM

      Interesting stats, Matt.

      Thanks,

      Big Al

    Nov 08, 2012 08:52 PM

    Hi Al

    Just listened to your latest piece with Roger Wiegand.

    Just wonder if the feeling of entitlement as Roger puts it comes from the notion that people don’t seem to have a choice because they don’t have the skills or knowledge to make them feel part of society. Poor education standards in the US are now starting to have effect. While I agree that there are those people who, no matter what opportunities are presented to them, wil not work, however, if a person feels disenfranchised then it makes it difficult to break into the workforce as they feel they don’t belong. Cause and effect.

    I believe that there is no such thing as a free lunch, however, a country needs to empower it’s people and the way you do that is by providing good affordable education. This pays back in spades. The day the US decided that good education was a cost accounted item and only available to those who could pay is the day the US created the very problem of the feeling for entitlement.

    Cheers
    Tony W

      Nov 09, 2012 09:42 AM

      Morning Tony W,

      I have to agree with you completely.

      I have had personal experience with people who do take advantage of the system. Your comment about feeling disenfranchised is a very valuable one. I think that it is not simply quality of education; however, I believe that family support of lack thereof is also a big factor.

      You comment about the quality of education here in the U.S. is a great and, in my opinion, accurate observation on your part.

      Best,

      Big Al

    Nov 08, 2012 08:59 PM

    Tony W.,
    Very interesting and insightful comments……welcome!
    Marc

    Nov 08, 2012 08:29 PM

    Only in America can a president who inherits a deep recession and whose policies have actually made the effects of that recession worse get re-elected. Only in America can a president who wants the bureaucrats who can’t run the Post Office to micromanage the administration of every American’s health care get re-elected. Only in America can a president who kills Americans overseas who have never been charged or convicted of a crime get re-elected. And only in America can a president who borrowed and spent more than $5 trillion in fewer than four years, plans to repay none of it and promises to borrow another $5 trillion in his second term get re-elected.
    What’s going on here?
    What is going on is the present-day proof of the truism observed by Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton, who rarely agreed on anything in public: When the voters recognize that the public treasury has become a public trough, they will send to Washington not persons who will promote self-reliance and foster an atmosphere of prosperity, but rather those who will give away the most cash and thereby create dependency. This is an attitude that, though present in some localities in the colonial era, was created at the federal level by Woodrow Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt, magnified by FDR, enhanced by LBJ, and eventually joined in by all modern-day Democrats and most contemporary Republicans.
    Mitt Romney is one of those Republicans. He is no opponent of federal entitlements, and he basically promised to keep them where they are. Where they are is a cost to taxpayers of about $1.7 trillion a year. Under President Obama, however, the costs have actually increased, and so have the numbers of those who now receive them. Half of the country knows this, and so it has gleefully sent Obama back to office so he can send them more federal cash taken from the other half.
    It is fair to say that Obama is the least skilled and least effective American president since Jimmy Carter, but he is far more menacing. His every instinct is toward the central planning of the economy and the federal regulation of private behavior. He has no interest in protecting American government employees in harm’s way in Libya, and he never admits he has been wrong about anything. Though he took an oath to uphold the Constitution, he treats it as a mere guideline, whose grand principles intended to guarantee personal liberty and a diffusion of power can be twisted and compromised to suit his purposes. He rejects the most fundamental of American values — that our rights come from our Creator, and not from the government. His rejection of that leads him to an expansive view of the federal government, which permits it, and thus him, to right any wrong, to regulate any behavior and to tax any event, whether authorized by the Constitution or not, and to subordinate the individual to the state at every turn.
    As a practical matter, we are in for very difficult times during Obama’s second term. ObamaCare is now here to stay; so, no matter who you are or how you pay your medical bills, federal bureaucrats will direct your physicians in their treatment of you, and they will see your medical records. As well, Obama is committed to raising the debt of the federal government to $20 trillion. So, if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives goes along with this, as it did during Obama’s first term, the cost will be close to $1 trillion in interest payments every year. As well, everyone’s taxes will go up on. New Year’s Day, as the Bush-era tax cuts will expire then. The progressive vision of a populace dependent on a central government and a European-style welfare state is now at hand.

      Nov 09, 2012 09:18 AM

      Bravo, Jerry(Gator)M. What we have are politicians refusing to address the problem – spending and debt – and focused on maintaining the status quo. With the globalist vision. But someone behind the scenes is manipulating the gold, silver, oil, and base metal markets. Because these would be going up, up, and up in an inflationary environment, but they are not. So we have the USD losing value in purchasing power and a near-governmental decree that no alternative to the USD is allowed to be used or compared, due to shadowy price suppression.

      What’s Joe Average to do? His salary is not going up, prices are going up, and there are no loopholes or alternatives. Taxmaggedon will hit hard on 01 January 2013. Does Joe Average buckle down, get a third job just for the new taxes, or quit the rat race?

        Nov 09, 2012 09:27 AM

        JERRY (GATOR)……A double BRAVO , A handful of people like you could do a better job running the country, unlike the 365 , or so , selfish , greedy , uncaring bastards currently running the circus……Sad not one of the clowns is even funny.

      Nov 09, 2012 09:03 AM

      Really a great rant, Gator!

      Look for a weekend special on this with myself and Jeff Deist.

      Best,

      Big Al

    Nov 08, 2012 08:06 PM

    In California, Democrat Gov. Jerry Brown rubs his paws together on the passing of Proposition 30, and with it the recinding of Proposition 13. This will greatly increase property taxes here in California on those who own property. Perhaps CA is on the path on going down the drain like sister state Nevada….only time will tell, but not too soon. A friend of mine was wondering why his tax liability has been delayed, now he knows why. Foreclosure`s will be on the rise in the sunny state for sure, an exodus from California will follow in record numbers. Welfare bums from people who don`t work for a living to the trillionaire Banksters alike all voted for Obama, what a trend…..

      Nov 09, 2012 09:06 AM

      My opinion re: California is that welfare fraud, illegal immigration, state govt. expenditures, etc. all must be curtailed. Unfortunately, higher taxes, in my mind, also fit into the solution.

      The people did it to themselves! (Some of them)

      Big Al