Al's Insights – Thu 22 Nov, 2012

Dudley Baker on political and economic issues.

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Dudley had some interesting comments at our dinner in San Francisco.


Featuring:
Al KorelinDudley Baker

Comments:
  1. On November 22, 2012 at 12:10 pm,
    John W. Robertson says:

    I like Dudley’s view on several points. Sounds like he’s reading from my own notes! (what a surprise that I like them)

    * A lot of turmoil will occur to get gold to $2500…watch out for what you look for…amen to that.
    * 95% of politicians are lawyers. Learned that around age 8 from my Dad, who was a lawyer. Despite his occupation, hH=e wasn’t being complimentary, believe me.
    * Kids may get a little gold for Christmas and not like it. (I actually did get some gold also around age 8 and was thrilled. But that’s just me.)
    * Canada taxes on world-wide income now, too. Look for France and the UK to follow, if they haven’t already. However, the IRS is the only institution to ever break the privacy of several tax havens, forcing them to hand over records of depositors.
    * Debt reconciliation sooner than later — yes, probably. But the side that likes debt isn’t sitting idle. They will protect their spending largesse for as long and by whatever means possible. This thing could drag on longer than anyone thinks.

    Just today, Fitch downgraded Sony and Panasonic 3 levels to junk. Wow…the Japanese miracle may have run it’s course, 1960-2012. With Japan’s unenviable debt:GDP, and it’s best blue chips rated junk, nothing is impossible. Fitch is being criticized by some for being too aggressive, but they are undoubtedly the most credible of the major credit rating agencies. Fitch had already downgraded the US before the debt-ceiling fiasco of 1 1/2 years ago, well ahead of everyone else, and also took it on the chin. The point being here that it’s not just the US or Greek or Euro debt bombshells to be worried about.

    PS to Ben Bernanke…your Fed buys 70% of the nation’s debt. Japan, a dutiful buyer of Federal Reserve bonds, is also a major buyer. If Japan can no longer afford it, look out. There’s a debt crisis that will make Greece look like a birthday party.

  2. On November 22, 2012 at 12:10 pm,
    John W. Robertson says:

    Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

  3. On November 22, 2012 at 2:29 pm,
    benb says:

    I have been giving PMs for xmas and birthdays for some years now (10 maybe) When a child is born I give them a coin set of that year and an oz of silver. Last one said happy birthday on it. And the child starts with a little wealth.
    If gold goes up, yes things might not be so good ecenomicaly, but we bought it as money or insurance didnt we? I agree with Mr. Dudly about leaving the U.S. personally I wont even visit anymore. I just dont see going there as worth the risk.
    Most people think Im nuts of course, but I wont go there.

    • On November 22, 2012 at 3:22 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Hi Benb,

      I really don’t believe that it has gotten to the point you allude to yet.

      Big Al

  4. On November 22, 2012 at 4:16 pm,
    benb says:

    I dont think it has either Al, I have friends and reletives that have no problems at all. Its just me, remember tho, I wont fly either as I wont support what I see as molesting kids, so I admit I am probly extreme. What can I say?

    • On November 23, 2012 at 4:42 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Hi Benb,

      I almost decked a guy at the airport flying out of Seattle. Very, very angry, but I thought better of it.

      Big al

  5. On November 22, 2012 at 4:33 pm,
    Matt says:

    “It is really hard to see how you work yourself out of this situation without a terrible catastrophe and a terrible end -and I don’t know exactly what that means -but we will find out sooner rather than later.”Dudley
    My question is for all those that choose to remain in America with an untenable debt and deficit and unfunded liability situation,what is the historical result for world powers that can not fiscally support their domination any longer?
    Certainly,your military engagements and commitments are in step with a nation that is economically in denial.
    US defense spending has risen 77% since 1999 ,the highest levels since WW2,and yet,America is primarily engaged abroad and not focused on defending her borders.
    $531 billion in 2012 for the Pentagon budget,alone.Of course,those are just the ‘public’ numbers.
    American troops are not being sent into missions to defend freedom or secure America’s borders and yet the US budget can no longer support America and half a trillion ‘official’ dollars are spent by the US military.
    http://www.cato.org/pubs/articles/logan-friendman-obis-spring-2012.pdf

    $US national debt is 16.3 trillion
    $US total debt is 59 trillion
    $US unfunded liabilities is 122 trillion
    Yearly savings by US families is $4,000
    Total debt of US families is $705,000
    $US gross debt : GDP ratio is now 105%
    http://www.usdebtclock.org/
    As Dudley said at the beginning: It is really hard to see how you work yourself out of this situation without a terrible catastrophe and a terrible end ……

    • On November 23, 2012 at 5:51 pm,
      Big Al says:

      As I am sure your are aware, I completely agree.

      Clarification on one stat: Do you mean the average debt of a U.S. family is $705,000. I find that to be somewhat hard to believe given the fact that so many families are receiving entitlements.

      Can you clarify?

      Big Al

  6. On November 23, 2012 at 6:00 am,
    David says:

    Al:
    Not sure where to put this since no current entries on Passport Potash. However one of the items on the agenda of the annual meeting is a 10 to 1 reverse split. Reverse splits have become synonymous with failing/corrupt companies. Now it is my understanding they have a large resource of potash and good backing. So,,,that leaves corruption. Is there an attempt by insiders to drive the little guy out of Passport and concentrate the shares in those insiders that have large # of shares acquired at little or no cost. The alarms, red flags and whistles are beginning to surround the management of what was thought to be a legitimate company. Surely they know that the hedge funds, with the current state of no market regulation will take their “reverse split share price” and naked short it back to near current value without government interference. Therefore, the reverse split does nothing but drive the small investor out of the company by making his shares worthless. They aren’t that crooked are they?
    Could we check into this black cloud floating over Arizona? Thanks Al.

    • On November 23, 2012 at 11:20 am,
      Greg says:

      David. Was not aware of the R.S.? They just recently did a fully subscribed non brokered P.P.for 12 million

  7. On November 23, 2012 at 1:22 pm,
    David says:

    Greg;
    I guess we won’t have to wait long since the annual meeting was held in Vancouver today. They placed in the meeting notice general language like “we may or may not do this” and “if we do it, it maybe won’t be 10 to 1”, etc. But, the fact that it was an agenda item that was to be voted on (in person or previously by proxy) is quite disturbing.