Al's Insights – Thu 22 Nov, 2012

Larry Amernick, of the Amernick Letter, is a bit more optimistic than some.

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Here is another opinion from our dinner in San Francisco.

Al KorelinLarry Amernick

  1. On November 22, 2012 at 1:40 pm,
    Clark says:

    Must be that San Francisco air he was breathing. Are you kidding me??

    • On November 22, 2012 at 3:20 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Everyone is certainly entitled to his/her opinion!

      Big Al

  2. On November 22, 2012 at 3:32 pm,
    Big Al says:

    From a listener in the U.K.:

    “Dear Al, love all your reports and comments here over in the UK. Any chance you could offer a comment on all the ‘hidden’ hype surrounding Basle III and the prospect of gold going from Tier 3 to Tier ! status, and of the likely impact of that on the gold price.

    Best wishes, Andrew de Berry”

    My response was that we will comment on that tomorrow. What do you all think?

    Big Al

    • On November 23, 2012 at 1:35 pm,
      benb says:

      teir 1 will put upward preasure on gold.

  3. On November 22, 2012 at 5:32 pm,
    Matt says:

    Can anybody give me the equation on how America goes forward/muddles through with their debts,deficits and unfunded liabilities?The US cannot pay their debts.Who will pay it? Not Japan,not China,they are all fleeing this sinking ship.
    This guy sounds like he is loaded on irrationality.
    $US national debt is 16.3 trillion
    $US total debt is 59 trillion
    $US unfunded liabilities is 122 trillion
    Yearly savings by US families is $4,000
    Total debt of US families is $705,000
    $US gross debt : GDP ratio is now 105%

    • On November 23, 2012 at 7:59 pm,
      Matt says:

      Today, the US is running its fourth $1+trillion deficit.
      Our Deficit to GDP ratio is nearly 10%.
      Our “official” Total Debt to GDP is 105% though when you include the debt hidden in various Government entities and unfunded liabilities we’re well over a Debt to GDP ratio of 300% at this point.

      To put these numbers into perspective, Greece had a Deficit to GDP ratio of 12% and a Debt to GDP ratio of 150% when it first entered its sovereign debt crisis. It’s since seen a GDP collapse of 20%: one of the largest economic collapses worldwide in the last 30 years.

  4. On November 22, 2012 at 6:28 pm,
    Paul L says:

    A lot of truth in this parody about the socialist gov’t from market pendulum:

    The following conversation was recently overheard in the subway between Jack, a newly hired government employee and Joe, an uninformed citizen.

    How Fair is Fair

    Joe: Since we are going socialist anyway, why not just go there right now and enjoy all the benefits?

    Jack: Well, we have to go slow so everyone can see how fair it is. It’s the new fairness policy with equality for all. This is where you get to liberally stick your hands in somebody else’s pocket and keep whatever you find or donate it to someone else.

    Joe: But won’t someone get to stick their hand in your pocket?

    Jack: No. It is only directed towards those who don’t believe in the fairness policy, are overly productive and make everyone else look bad. It’s the only fair thing to do.

    Fair Employment

    Joe: I can’t wait! But unemployment is way up and there is no job growth. What are they doing for those folks?

    Jack: No problem. The government hires them all as statisticians, cheerleaders or as information specialists in the “see something, say something program”. Consequently, most everyone will be on the government payroll in some form eventually. As a result, we will have full employment shortly.

    Joe: Outstanding!

    Jack: And they all will naturally show their appreciation whenever “elections” show up too.

    Let’s be Fair Programs

    Joe: Of course they will! But what about the TSA’s plans to expand their activities by coming to your home to monitor your home temperature, water use and genetically modified food supply?
    Jack: If you comply and show support for the regime’s program, you can get tax credits and more money in your pocket to spend on approved government food surplus. It’s a snap!

    Joe: I hear you. What about those who say “fair” is a “fairy tale” and that they are acting like the old KGB, Gestapo or Stasi?

    Jack: Well, we have what we call “Sensei & Mentoring”. This S&M plan is affectionately known in our office as “muscle and more” and a program to assist those in need of a positive education and enlightenment. Fortunately, we have lots of schools open in the evenings that are available for training classes.

    It’s a new, improved and modern version with a business friendly attitude, nicely packaged and free! If you attend classes and support the fairness policy, you get bonus tax breaks too. Just fill out a few forms and you are accepted.

    Joe: Nice! But some say the government is lying, being deceitful and withholding the truth on economic and financial matters.

    Jack: No way. We have a new program called the “Information Formation System”, better known as “IFS”, to inform the citizens on our real progress. You should apply there for a cushy job rearranging the deck chairs, as it were. You would definitely qualify…no ifs, ands or butts about it.

    Paying Fairly for Programs

    Joe: Thanks for the opportunity! But where do they get the money for all these programs? I mean, Margaret Thatcher said something once about socialism being great until you run out of other people’s money.

    Jack: We solved that problem. Just print it!

    Joe: Amazing! What will happen to the constitution and the gold standard?

    Jack: Those are both barbarous relics of the past which were nice in the good old days. But now it’s time to modernize, streamline our thinking and make new “guidelines”. Besides, we are running out of gold but have plenty of trees left over to print money, send out announcements and paper things over.

    Joe: Wow! Brilliant idea. Where do I sign up?

    Getting a Fair Shake

    Jack: Well, if you voted for Big “O”, you are already signed up as a party faithful. Not that the alternative would have been better, mind you. It’s just that for latecomers, economic energizer bunnies and naive nitwits, they can now call toll-free 000-000-0000 for their eligibility status.

    Joe: Very creative telephone number we all can remember very easily!

    Jack: Oh yes! It’s also a place where the unsigned will wait less than 3 hours to speak to a government rep. Most will eventually be told of their ineligibility for the “fairness” benefits, have to pay a financial penalty and get zero rewards because they failed to sign up on time. The rest who oppose us are toast anyway.

    Joe: Ah oh…

    Jack: But the good news is they are eligible for a free brainwash, rinse and repeat, courtesy of their fellow comrades.

    Joe: How reassuring! Sure am glad you’re not a communist!

    In Conclusion

    A funny parody yes, but unfortunately true. The final chapter in this downward spiral will be a painful prelude to and a necessary resurrection of the timeless principles of freedom, fiscal sanity and common sense…long since forgotten.

    • On November 23, 2012 at 5:58 pm,
      Big Al says:

      This parody does make one stop and think!

      Big Al

  5. On November 23, 2012 at 5:31 am,
    stustev says:

    physical cliff?!? I listened to this guy thinking he may have something here until he mentioned the physical cliff. I thought ‘just a slip’ then again I heard physical cliff. Sorry – I don’t think this guy has a clue.

    • On November 23, 2012 at 11:27 am,
      Matt R. says:

      I might believe Larry if I was drunk, but that’s about it.

  6. On November 23, 2012 at 9:11 am,
    cecil henry says:

    Larry can keep saying the kind of things he’s saying and people will always clap whether their true or NOT- because its unthinkable to admit that the arent true.

    He does not describe reality, but a selective version of it. That already goes on too much in the MSM.

    • On November 23, 2012 at 12:46 pm,
      Marc says:

      Big Al,
      What?! What is that segment on the ESPN NFL Monday night countdown? C’MON MAN!!!

  7. On November 23, 2012 at 1:59 pm,
    Sandy says:

    Miss Roger Weigand’s Market Trend commentary…why is he silent?

  8. On November 24, 2012 at 1:22 am,
    Matt says:

    James Turk on KWN:
    The Financial Times here in London reported recently that the median income of American households is at to its lowest level since 1995, and that’s using the government’s own CPI calculation, which is as fictitious as the unemployment report that shows fewer people out of work. Government economists and their reports are politically motivated. Inflation is much higher than the government reports, and so is unemployment.
    Private economists show a much higher level of unemployment. John Williams of ShadowStats calculates it to be 22.9%, just below the all-time high of 23.0%. He calculates the present inflation rate at 9.8%. Both of these estimates are much closer to the truth, which is bad news for the dollar because the Fed will get those printing presses working overtime before too long.