Danielle Park discusses investing with Al and Jeff
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Take about mixed signals. Fed policy is bad and bullish on $. Hence she would be bearish on commodities.
Side note: I listened to her since 2009 and she was never bullish on stocks. Now she is saying she got out of stock recently. Interesting.
Although I believe Ms. Park tends to be overly bearish, I believe she is right at the moment.
A lot of stocks have bearish TA.
I have a great deal of respect for Danielle but I find her statements to be confusing. Her earlier interviews (2010, 2011) on Howe Street suggested that her clients were in mostly all cash. But her recent statements suggest that she was into equities all along. Either she was doing something different for her clients than what she publicly said or lost some great opportunities. It would be nice for her to clarify this at some time.
She acknowledges the cyclical upturns in the bear since 2000 and explains it well, but I feel she is ultra conservative on how she participates. I believe what is the missing element in her assumptions is that the us with the world resreve currency status still in place and in case of China being the largest creditor nation.. these two points will keep it going much longer than people realize,(actually to this point has)although I believe the crack in the wall develops sometime early 2014 ..If anyone here reads Mr. JamesDines, he has a (dinnensiems he labels them) ..Something in motion remains in motion until it stops.thank you.
Being against bailouts does not mean that one is not a Keynesian. Since 2008, many have argued that Keynes would not have supported the bailouts in the way that they were done. Keynes shared Danielle’s aversion to debt as well, if I remember correctly.
I would be more interested in Danielle’s view on the Fed influencing interest rates, and whether or not she thinks central banks and fiat money should exist at all.
Like many, including the Casey crew, she was WAY too “cautious” in 2009. I put quotes on cautious because those who understood the situation knew that caution meant steering clear of such risky assets as (most) fiat currencies and allocating more to gold.
Pull up a long term chart of the TSX when watching the following interview. Park, like so many newsletter writers, helped the retail investor to lock-in their ’08-’09 losses. In her bearish view on commodities, she focused only on “demand pull” and not “cost push” — again, a mistake made by many.
http://watch.bnn.ca/the-street/september-2009/the-street-september-23-2009/#clip216301
In the interview, she seems to laugh at Jim Grant turning bullish. Jim was right.
Matthew
I’m very glad you brought these observations as well as facts, to the discussion. This is something that I really got burned by, and that is – listening to the “gurus”. Whenever I hear respectable financial experts speak, I ALWAYS want to hear the other TWO SIDES.
stay frosty
Hi Mark,
It’s one thing to get some short term calls wrong. The small stuff is difficult for anyone. However, it’s pretty bad when expensive newsletters are dead wrong on BIG important calls. One has to wonder if the ones with a large subscriber base are wrong on purpose. After all, bag holders are in short supply before the public really gets involved. By keeping readers out as long as possible, the “smart” guys can dump their shares on them at much higher prices.
Luckily, I didn’t listen to any of them in ’09. I bought all the silver I could between $9 and 14, and went all in on the juniors.
Staying frosty!
HELL OF LOT MORE NEGITIVE.per AL………
.”hiring, salary,small business not hiring ,,,declining growth,stimulas…not workING ….decline in indicators….,more severe”….quote Danielle……..
..”secular bear….5 years…,historically 20 years LONG….ADVICE”raise cash”..(.not debt),,,,,,,wealthy parked on the sidelines…..quote Danielle,
Therefore,,,,Al,,,is the reason for my negitive call in……..REAL ESTATE…
LOL….love the show…..your friend….O^OTB….
…
Good food for thought. Thanks
Hey AL:
I haven’t heard any mention recently of American Manganese and what your perceptions are of the company. I know you and Roger were big on the company at one point, what is your opinion of the situation at the moment>
Cheers,
Al,
HIghly interested in American Manganese
and
what happened to SOHO resources?
It showed no value on my Scottrade acct.
It looks like Soho is now Telson Resources. Their new ticker on the venture exchange is TSN. Since you use Scottrade, you’ll have to find out if there’s a new pinksheet ticker.
I can see why they changed their name after that 8 for 1 rollback!
Have followed this site and Danielle’ site for close to two years now and never thought I would see them cross paths like this. She doesn’t like gold so it would be cool to hear a debate between her and Al. On the negative side, she is sooooooo bearish that I postponed investing any money in Canadian Stocks last year (a potential 7% gain I missed), and has given a vague prediction of another big crash in 6-18 months. What’s a guy to do? My bonds are down1%, and my cash is losing whatever the real inflation rate is (3%+).
Do the opposite of what I do and you will be rich!!!
I brought up the gold issue. All said he was going to address it. Gloved hands?
Fade Danielle, it is a winning strategy.
Har- later this week we will ask Danielle about whether (and to what extent) she has her clients in physical gold and mining stocks.
I’m pretty confident she will say zero.
Thank you Jeff. If you listen to your little talk she is bullish on USD and bearish on Canada miners.
That’s perhaps true Har. I’ve noticed that Danielle’s timelines are often “months” ahead on such calls — that’s trading, not hedging or wealth storage. Last year, I had the impression Danielle was cautiously bullish on stocks for the year, which I remember as I disagreed with the notion.
I think a Korelin-Deist-Park roundup is a good way of finding out where everyone stands. Fun thread, Al!
Danille is one of the few commentators who is straight up and shoots from the hip. I respect her comments and follow her closely. She shines in an investment world of hype,rumor and smoke and mirrors. Keep up the good work Danielle
[…] Danielle was a guest this morning on the Korelin Economics Report daily insights radio show with host Al Korelin and co-host Jeff Deist. Here is direct link to the audio clip. […]