Al, Jeff and Grant don’t agree with The Globe and Mail regarding the wisdom of the masses coming back into the conventional markets. Listen to hear why.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Ironically,
I just check out KWN, and Denise Yamada made a critical point to support Grant’s quick comment about NRIR’s. Very interesting….http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/6_Yamada_-_4_Spectacular_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts.html
The average guy…..can not figure it out….they will chase the market….and in the end will be broke….
the average guy is about 10 years behind…..and has a lot of home work to do….
Sure, The Tall, it is the American way!
Big Al
Anybody who follow the MSM , need’s . a boot in the bollocks, to wake them up.
“boolocks” is that a medical term, Mr. Irish?
Big Al
Dear Al,
“Bollocks” are items 2 and 3 in a male mammal’s genital endowment! It’s a popular term in the UK and Ireland and rightly so. 🙂
So it is a sophisticated medical term!
Big Al
Nice one, Irish!
I feel that there are a lot of complete contradictions in various commenataries about the stock market right now.
Some are saying there is lots of money on the sidelines and plenty of room for money to come out of bonds, cash, etc. into stocks.
Others are saying sentiment in stocks is sky-high; fund managers are all in.
One or the other or both have got to be wrong.
Conclusion: it’s all smoke and mirrors!
Possible 2nd conclusion: QE3 is finding its way into stocks (at the moment) and possibly other asset inflation.
Possible 3rd conclusion (more tenuous): Stock market breakout might be first step to hyperinflation?
I listened to that one and this one too.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/2/2_James_Dines.html
Dan
Thanks for the link, Dan
Big Al
Dines can be brilliant. Amazing for an octagenarian. He sounds like an angry 50 year old with excess energy! However, he does get on my nerves a bit wil “I am the original goldbug,” “I am the original silver bug, I am the original uranium bug, ” I am the original rare earths bug, I founded technical analysis, I founded this and that, I’m the original something or other bug.
He made fantastic call on rare earths and cites his getitng into REE Rare Element Resources was it at 6 cents and riding it to $6. I wonder though, what aboiut John Kaiser who has also been into rare earths for years?
Jim is a great ideas man though and he is probably brilliant. I love his energy.
For a guy his age, Silverbug Dave, he is pretty energetic. We can all learn something.
Big Al
Thanks Marc,
If you happen to attend the Conference in the Desert in a couple of weeks I will introduce you to Grant.
Big Al
Thanks, Al
Good job guys. I think you all said much the same truths, and I agree.
In a way we can look at money going into equities at this time as a risk off trade, almost the opposite of what was going on last couple years. Instead of running to dollars during turmoil, perhaps the big money sees risk in the dollar and bond market so they are running into lower risk equities. Marc Faber has on many occasions mentioned this phenomena where people weigh various risk. For example people are currently talking about the “Numbers”, Government GDP and employment reports, but not at face value but asking if someone else believes them. In other words the truth is the biggest unknown, but there is enough evidence to be afraid of currencies and their bond proxies. Which would someone feel more safe in, bonds and currency which is purely paper backed by debt, or in equities and property which are real and tangible. That is why gold, real estate and equities can all go up at the same time which is so common before and during serious bouts of currency devaluation.
Your final sentence, Clay, is important to realize.
Best,
Big Al
Hi Big Al,
Margin debt is fueling the market rally, and the investors behind the wheel have no fear. Best to all.
That is interesting Keep Stacking. I will take a look at the margin numbers.
Big Al
Welcome to Japan.
Welcome to The Village of Potemkinville in the County of Zirp in the State of Disbelief.
Welcome to economic repression.
Where do I sign up for my free Lexus?
Big Al
I see, you’ll two-time your BMW to do your part.
Actually no, Matthew!
My black, soon to be a classic 528, is my true car love!
I would donate the Lexus to an upcoming fund raiser we are a part of for “Animals As Natural Therapy”
We went to a planning meeting last night for this upcoming event and it is amazing how much donations could be down for this year.
Here is the website for “ant”: http://www.animalsasnaturaltherapy.org/
See what you think.
Big Al
Whew! What a relief, Al. The 528 is a lot more fun to drive. I rented one in San Antonio back in ’96. That straight 6 is a great motor. The car handled very well.
Animals As Natural Therapy looks like a great and worthy recipient.
It really is, Matthew! After I really checked them out I have decided to go you know what out to help.
It is kind of interesting though, I decided about 30 seconds into the meeting last night that politics would definitely NOT BE A GOOD SUBJECT TO BRING UP! Know what I mean.
Regarding my girl (528) I may very well be buried in her!
Big Al
Boy do I ever know what you mean, Al!
The G&M article is, I hate to say, typical of the Bloor St mentality (I mentioned this before, sorry if it’s repetitive). Real estate and stock markets in most of Canada have generally remained robust the last 10 years. From the perspective of a near-retirement Canadian baby-boomer, things are goin’ great and only getting better. Property bubbles in Australia and the UK serve to confirm their view, rather than caution them. Headlines from Europe and the US are just that. They aren’t real. The TSX can keep going up no matter what happens, because it’s had a nice pause for a while. Canadian businesses are doing well…aren’t everybody’s now?? (that’s the unspoken presumption)
It’s a bit subjective, but this misplaced optimism is almost exactly what happened after the 1997 Asia currency crisis, which briefly interrupted the 25%+ returns in North American stock markets. People just couldn’t wait for the irrational exhuberence to continue again. I haven’t been back to Ontario for a couple years now, but the world’s financial woes aren’t real to many of the folks I talked to. Some are starting to accept a real property bubble, rather than “Canada has always been different” mentality. Vancouver wavers back and forth in popular opinion of what’s real estate will do.
If the US and EU devalue currencies to the nth degree, China will hard land. Every country trades. The world won’t be a fun place for any country when that happens.
Slightly off topic, but today’s headlines that the 2013 US Federal Budget deficit will “only” be $845 billion is probably another attempt to boost the US dollar, and it will probably succeed for a few months more. Anything for another can kick.
I fine the $845 billion number to be laughable!
Big Al
Look at what everybody is trying to do in real estate, especially here in Canada.
Buy up properties and resell them at inflated prices to the next sucker.
And on it goes. I find the whole game contemptible.
I can’t imagine paying $800,000 for a two bedroom house with no yard in downtown Toronto.
That’s not wealth, that’s poverty.
Price deflation in every other field is a sign of progress and rising living standards…just look at the cost of computers and technology.
So why is massive unaffordable and constantly growing housing prices a sign of progress? Its really not.
Of course it is not, Mr. Henry!
Know what it is? It is call very screwed up priorities!
Big Al
Bad news is treated as good news by the media:
http://moneymorning.com/2013/02/06/the-silver-lining-buried-in-the-bad-gdp-number/
Thanks Paul,
Going to discuss this in an editorial tomorrow.
Good stuff, my friend.
Big Al
One of CNBC expert guests was forecasting a Dow of 60,000 within 10 years yesterday. These so called experts likely use ruler to extend the current short term chart.
You gotta be kidding me Paul L.! A dow of 60,000?
What does that say about inflation!
Big Al
Al, greater percentage gains happened between 1942 and 1960. Of course, this time those gains would be not just mostly nominal, but most likely they would be LOSSES in real terms.
Matthew, I don’t really disagree.
Big Al
Or maybe someone thinks the dollar is going to collapse? This reminds me of my post just 3 days ago:
“The last time the U.S. Treasury bond yield reversed from a level similar to today’s was in 1941-42. Then, between 1942 and 1946, the Dow more than doubled. It then fell 25%, consolidated for 3 three years, and went up 4 fold in the following 10 years. If history were to repeat (assuming yields have bottomed), we would see the Dow at 84,000 by 2030.”
—-
My contention is that the dollar price is absolutely devoid of useful information. So what if the Dow goes to 60,000. What if copper is $25, gold is $30,000, and a Honda Accord $85,000 when it gets there?
Grant,
Again, nailed it. The BIGGEST criteria causing a FLOOR in the PM’s is NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST rates. That is it in a nut-shell. The countless other drivers will push the PM’s up over time…sooner rather than later. ALL my ‘cash reserves” is in gold bullion. I put my fiat money where my mouth AND voice are……..Oh, and I sleep like a BABY at nite. That is priceless to me.