Larry Edelson, of Weiss Research, puts out an informative report. Here is the latest one.
To watch, click here.
I have been hearing lately from several people (just like this guy) that we have entered a NEW SECULAR BULL..To me that is hogwash,how is that possible with debt at bubble proportions. I personally believe that there has to be another washout of these false manipulated markets sometime soon.I have felt that they eill keep it propped up a little linger because all major powers have come to the QE party,latest and newest being China and Japan…so just a guess late 2013 or early 1st quarter 2014 seems about the ripe time for some devasting news,after we have sucked in the small guy..the general public..the blow of stage in gold is around the corner. I heard David Morgan say recently he feels silver will not breach $30..I wonder what this guys big , macro, track record looks like???Anyone know?? thanks
A paper bull market is possible for exactly the same reason the Wiemar stock market went up.
Will the rising stock market on average keep up with the falling purchasing power of the US dollar? NO.
so are you in the camp that equates to a secular bull at the present time , not clear on you thoughts..thanks
Good Afternoon Deborah Lee,
The conventional market is certainly strong right now. All you have to do is look at the numbers. The question is “why is it strong”? What are we missing?
The real question is, “will it stay strong?”
At this moment in time I can’t personally see how that can happen. For the sake of the people living in our country, I hope that it does. That would mean that a rabbit has been pulled out of a hat. That would also mean that investors in their desperation to want to see our economy not collapse will keep putting money into it.
The real question here is are the current investors acting prudently. I prefer to hedge my bets as I have stated many times in the past.
right now is the key words, the problem i have what are your convitions on calling this a new secular bull (I have heard you say you did not think so ) As you may know and i have stated several times I believe they meaning central banks will keep this going longer than we expect, but Istill firmly believe this is bnot the making of a new bull,if you are cfs does explain WHY. thanks
At the moment:
Why are we in a Bull market?
Where is most money? Answer: In pension funds.
Where is this money invested? Answer: Mostly in bonds.
Will it stay in bonds as bonds mature? Answer: probably not, because rates are so low and too much money is being printed.
Where will the money go? Answer: into the stock market. I believe we have seen this rotation for about two years now.
cfs might have added:
And where does pension money go? Answer: Back to the holders when they retire.
And a lot of people will be doing that soon. I doubt very much that Gen X, Y and Z (Millenials) will be large contributors back into the market for some time.
Good point, John W!
Demographics should be talked about more often.
I chose my professional area of practice because of significant demographic trends.
I agree with John W. younger generations are not acting like their parents.
Baby Boomers are far more likely to be without an estate plan as compared to their parents. The younger generations are well beyond the now stale notion of giving up on social security. I have heard on multiple occasions that “it is senseless to save because private property will not exist when I reach retirement years.”
Those are minds full of mush however mush is carrying the day.
Oh Dennis, “skull full of mush”…a reference to Professor Kingsfield, by chance? I loved that guy (John Houseman). He just owned the role on the Paper Chase. I can do his spiel anytime, anyplace!
Mush Minds to me are what Gerald Celente elegantly describes by referencing his father’s criticism:
Mush minds parrot words they are fed.
Beyond the fiscal fiasco and monetary mayhem the world suffers from a crisis scarcity of critical thinking.
To be precise; I believe from fundamental reasons we are in a cyclical bull.
From TA, I believe small-cap stocks are in a fairly strong bull currently. My crystal ball is cloudy as to how long that will last, but I only look at whether the market is soon going to go up or down, because that determines my buy/sell decision.
I am reference to the market in general with these comments, not any specific sections of the market.
Some areas, at any point in time, are better than others.
Right now I believe the best opportunities are not in precious metals (with some individual exceptions), but in energy (oil, uranium and gas)
e.g. look at the graphs of ETFs XLE and PXE. (This is not a recommendation to buy right now because the RSIs are high.)
e.g. Look at the graph of U.to.
Look at the graphs of almost any pipeline company…..e.g.Kinder-morgan, or, ETP, or GEL, HEP, NS, OGE, DPM, EPB, NGLS, PAA there are lots of them rising nicely.
E.g. Refiners ssuch as VLO etc…..
None of these are recommendations, of course. Some I own; some I don’t.
My advise to anyone is that the best investment you can make is in a TA course or self education therein.
Second to that is get a good investment advisor, preferably one who is a billionaire already. (I suspect Mr Rule is, but do not know)
i agree with a lot on of your above points on the cyclical bull…but that does not address my concerns of the start of a NEW SECUAR BULL..THATS MY MAIN POINT THANKS
I don’t know anyone who can prospectively say we are in s secular Bull or a secular Bear.
I believe that is something one can towards the end of the secular period.
Besides, while it would be nice to know if all my stock picks were good for the next 2 or 3 or 5 years, life is not so perfect.
All I really need to know right now is whether to sell or buy my stock choices.
I run a TA (technical Analysis) on all my stocks about once a month, if convenient and adjust my portfolio accordingly.
Will I miss a sudden one day market crash? Probably, but that’s where keeping an interest in politics comes in. I missed the 1987 crash, and the 2001 crash (as I was in 100% cash in 1999.) I did get surprised by the 2007-8 crash, but I was out of touch with civilization at the time and it was totally my own fault of not paying attention.
(I had been caring for several years for a parent dying of Altzheimers and needed a break to recover. I just wasn’t watching the stockmarket.)
The other problem that market bulls miss, at least if they promote buy-and-hold, is the dropping value of the US dollar. There’s an unspoken assumption that a dollar today is still worth about the same as a dollar in 5 years. In 5 years from now, that may not be the case. I was surprised…even CNBC had an article today about the USD. Let me see, I think I have it somewhere here…ah, yes:
Their article is more about loss of confidence, which would affect borrowing and interest rates, so they’re not connecting the dots to inflation and loss of purchase power, but that’s obligatory with the above problems. Heck, in another year, CNBC might start doing stories about gold as a portion of your portfolio.
They very well might John W.
By the way, I have posted the article on our homepage.
Sprott, billionaire gold/silver
Rule, billionaire, gold, silver, plat, palladium, mining shares, etc.
Guistra, billionaire, gold, gold and mining shares
These guys arent fools and Deborah lee you are definitely not either or you wouldnt be so inquisitive…all the best to you!
I’ve been making the same point as cfs. The market could go up nominally while it continues its decline in real value.
No one can predict the future totally accurately.
Is it possible for the paper market to drive silver down though $30? Of course.
Is it probable? I do not know. What I do know is that the bullion banks are walking a very fine line, having sold short at prices substantially above the current price in order to drive the price down. If they crash the market (i.e. drive prices down so far that enough buyers appear and buy all the available metal) contracts will be settled in cash. Losses will not simply be paper losses, but booked and this could bankrupt some of the weaker short sellers, and the price of silver would gap up.
personally, ifeel more comfortale to believe with say a David Morgan”s opion than the slant i am receiving from the general public. Of course support levels and many other positive factors favor the end to this consolidation rather than the opposite,everyone knows you don ‘t have to have the exact bottom of the consolidation and that is also a cosidering factor for entering and exciting cylical bears and bulls in major secuar bear as is n ow the case .thanks
I like Morgan’s views. He’s called a couple of negatives that he was chided for, and then the market turned as he saw it. David is very much a silver bull I think, but he understands the cycles, and isn’t as surprised (or blindsided) as some of us who get upset over every meddling from JPM et al.
Morgan is a fraud.
Yes, he is a long term bull on silver, so in the end he will be right, but that is only a simple binary position.
His claims to know technicals or be some kind of guru are baloney. A good example was April of 2011 he stated emphatically that silver’s next stop was at least $70 (much like a regular commentator familiar here). His subsequent claims to have called the market top at the time have been lies.
If you track his short term calls, his binary record of success/failures likely approaches 50.00% (randomness).
Yes, silver will likely be much higher in fiat terms in the future, but for a guy like Morgan to claim to know anything is crap.
I ONLY see Morgan as a supplier of good market information about fundamentals ONLY. His predictions are suspect.
By looking up Morgan’s interviews of March and April 2011, as I did in May of 2011, you can find out if it’s Morgan or Shoo who really is a fraud.
Good point, cfs.
I followed Larry Edelson for a number of years and found his predictions to be unreliable. Following my own instincts, I was often more right than he was. I agree with his stock market prediction but strongly disagree with his Gold predictions. Gold is a reflection of the amount of money in circulation. The smart investors protect their wealth by having Gold, the barometer that reflects the amount of paper in circulation and at the same time preserves wealth.
same here i was a member for awhile and found the predictions all over the place
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No problem, Harlan