Al's Insights – Tue 16 Apr, 2013

Marshall Berol weighs in on the gold markets.

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Featuring:
Al KorelinMarshall Berol

Comments:
  1. On April 16, 2013 at 4:01 pm,
    Jed Davis says:

    Gold may go still go down a bit because we have not even gotten to August. We are almost at May. But by that time, (if not sooner), there should be a tremendous surge in Gold and Silver. And the stocks are already in bargain basement territory.

    • On April 16, 2013 at 6:35 pm,
      marc says:

      Hey, I am getting of the opinion that things are so crazy…we might see the biggest gains in G ans S this summer than we have ever seen. Dont laugh…I would NOT put it past this market…not in the least. Sell in May and go away..something tells me this time NO!! We shall see, but much, much stranger things have happened.

      • On April 16, 2013 at 7:41 pm,
        Big Al says:

        And Marc,

        I also agree with you.

        Big Al

      • On April 17, 2013 at 7:23 am,
        JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

        if you snooze ,,,,you loose………..ootb

      • On February 3, 2014 at 4:34 pm,
        Abubaker says:

        I am forever indebted to you for this inoaimotrfn.

    • On April 16, 2013 at 7:40 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Hi Jed,

      My thoughts exactly!

      Big Al

  2. On April 16, 2013 at 4:33 pm,
    JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

    TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST,,,TOUGH PEOPLE DO…,,Robt. Schuler 1970….

    • On April 16, 2013 at 4:40 pm,
      Brad H. says:

      Jerry, I like that…. good word.

      • On April 16, 2013 at 5:00 pm,
        JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

        thanks BRAD H…..glad you liked…..

        • On February 3, 2014 at 8:55 am,
          Hamayon says:

          That’s a genuinely impsserive answer.

    • On April 16, 2013 at 5:50 pm,
      SilverFox says:

      I say movie has just begun..so get prepared Jerry.

      • On April 16, 2013 at 6:05 pm,
        JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

        BEEN PREPARING FOR THIRTY YEARS…..START THE FILM…..

        • On April 16, 2013 at 6:32 pm,
          marc says:

          Great, great answer, Jerry!

          • On April 17, 2013 at 7:24 am,
            JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

            thanks to you mr.marc livermore

          • On February 3, 2014 at 3:13 am,
            Aarya says:

            For the love of God, keep writing these aricelts.

          • On February 3, 2014 at 4:54 pm,
            Sisira says:

            I read your pontsig and was jealous

      • On April 16, 2013 at 7:43 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Time will tell Silver. I would not bet the farm yet!

        Big Al

    • On April 16, 2013 at 7:42 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Amen The Tall,
      I have read a lot of his material.

      Big Al

      • On April 17, 2013 at 7:26 am,
        JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

        do not get to sidetracked with all his info.

  3. On April 16, 2013 at 4:58 pm,
    Dennis M. O'Neil says:

    Jed,
    I feel like a catfish or a flounder.

    • On April 16, 2013 at 5:02 pm,
      JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

      BETTER TO BE A flounder and swim in the sea….,than a catfish stuck in the mud…..

      • On April 16, 2013 at 6:33 pm,
        marc says:

        HAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!! 🙂 Classic, just classic….They dont make guys like you and Irish anymore! FUNNNNNYYY!

        • On April 16, 2013 at 6:37 pm,
          marc says:

          PS…Am I easily amused – NO! You guys are very, very clever…period.

          • On April 17, 2013 at 6:09 am,
            JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

            thanks marc……maybe ,we have to much time on our hands……glad you enjoyed,need to keep our minds active…they say you live longer…..plus, my wife says I need something to do…..ootb….

      • On April 16, 2013 at 7:44 pm,
        Big Al says:

        So true The Tall!
        Big Al

    • On April 16, 2013 at 8:18 pm,
      Jed Davis says:

      I think everyone is feeling that.

  4. On April 16, 2013 at 6:41 pm,
    marc says:

    Big Al and all:
    Informative interview at Sinclairs. Mahoney and Martensen.http://www.jsmineset.com/

    • On April 16, 2013 at 7:37 pm,
      Jody D says:

      Thanks Marc for the link. It seems many are quick to jump into a negative thinking mode right now. I too am “down” a lot of money in the PM’s, but I am taking a deep breath and holding firm to one financial security that makes sense to me…Physical gold and silver. Even if I am not correct about the PM’s, I have the REAL security of Jesus Christ to guide me through whatever lies ahead. Jody D,

      • On April 16, 2013 at 7:48 pm,
        Bobby says:

        amen, jody

        • On April 16, 2013 at 9:34 pm,
          marc says:

          Ditto, Bobby. And Jody, great job…the long term trend is still UP and the fundamentals are even stronger and GROWING each and every day.

        • On April 17, 2013 at 6:11 am,
          JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

          ditto…thanks Jody…..AMEN……

      • On April 16, 2013 at 8:50 pm,
        Dennis M. O'Neil says:

        12 Fight the good fight of the faith. Take hold of the eternal life to which you were called when you made your good confession in the presence of many witnesses. 13 In the sight of God, who gives life to everything, and of Christ Jesus, who while testifying before Pontius Pilate made the good confession, I charge you 14 to keep this command without spot or blame until the appearing of our Lord Jesus Christ, 15 which God will bring about in his own time–God, the blessed and only Ruler, the King of kings and Lord of lords, 16 who alone is immortal and who lives in unapproachable light, whom no one has seen or can see. To him be honor and might forever. Amen. 17 Command those who are rich in this present world not to be arrogant nor to put their hope in wealth, which is so uncertain, but to put their hope in God, who richly provides us with everything for our enjoyment. 18 Command them to do good, to be rich in good deeds, and to be generous and willing to share. 19 In this way they will lay up treasure for themselves as a firm foundation for the coming age, so that they may take hold of the life that is truly life. 20 Timothy, guard what has been entrusted to your care. Turn away from godless chatter and the opposing ideas of what is falsely called knowledge, 21 which some have professed and in so doing have wandered from the faith. Grace be with you.
        Timothy 6 12:21

        • On April 17, 2013 at 9:29 am,
          JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

          DENNIS….read 2 TIM 3

    • On April 16, 2013 at 7:46 pm,
      Bobby says:

      marc, excellent job by chris.
      Thanks for posting

      • On April 16, 2013 at 9:36 pm,
        marc says:

        Sure Bobby, thank you.

      • On February 1, 2014 at 4:14 pm,
        Fuji says:

        170I was just searching for this info for a while. After six hours of couotnnius Googleing, finally I got it in your website. I wonder what’s the lack of Google strategy that do not rank this type of informative websites in top of the list. Usually the top web sites are full of garbage.

  5. On April 16, 2013 at 7:12 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Jerry great answer!

    • On April 17, 2013 at 6:16 am,
      JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

      THANK jAMES TO YOU FOR READING….glad you enjoyed….ootb

  6. On April 16, 2013 at 7:20 pm,
    CFS says:

    http://www.fuw.ch/article/der-goldmarkt-ist-gesunder-geworden/
    (my translation from German)
    The investment strategist Dylan Grice does not know why the gold price has plummeted, and advises investors in conversation with FuW that the precious metal endures over the ages.
    Gold ( Gold has become much more affordable in recent days, the price has collapsed. Such a collapse is unpleasant, but not cause for concern, says the investment strategist Dylan Grice. His advice to investors to hold gold continues.

    Mr. Grice why the gold price has suddenly dropped so quickly?
    There are many opinions, ranging from conspiracy to cyclical or chart technical reasons. I have no idea. And I know no one who really knows. Although many people believe they know the reason, but each has a different reason.

    Do you have at least a guess?
    We still do not know what caused the stock market crash in 1987, and we’ll probably never find out. The same applies for the slump in the gold market in recent days. To know the cause, would be nice, but is not so important.

    What does the falling gold price mean?
    Each boom has corrections, and these are often violent. In the gold market, there was a break-in the mid-seventies, the price fell more than 40%. This was painful, and many people wrote back then get out from gold – it felt like the end of the bull market. But it went on, the drop was a healthy correction. 1987 shares fell 25% in one day, but that did not mean the end of the bull market. 1994 the bond market broke, in 1997, the Asian markets, but in both cases after big corrections they continued to rise.

    Can this apply directly to the gold market?
    The collapse does not necessarily mean that the bull market is over. It could indeed be over, but I would guess not. And in view of the greater picture, such a collapse is not important, even if it is violent and unpleasant course. There are good reasons to own gold. And to buy gold, there is now a reason more than a week ago: It’s 30% cheaper.

    So is this a buying opportunity, or not yet come to doubt the bull market?
    I have no idea if the gold price rises or falls in the coming months. But gold endures. The market strategist Marc Faber argues, the share price of Apple ( AAPL 426.24 1.52% ) has fallen much more than gold. But what will happen with Apple in ten or a hundred years? That nobody knows, and this applies to all companies and for most currencies. All we know is: A gold bullion is in a hundred years ago a gold bullion. In Roman times let himself pay one ounce of gold a decent toga and a meal that is still true today.

    The price of gold fluctuates but violently.
    Yeah, we just saw a spectacular fluctuation. But owning gold brings with it durability. This makes gold as an investment that is very attractive.

    Discontinuity does not fit into a durable investment.
    Gold is up for twelve years in a straight line, which is extremely unusual. Since it takes a downsizing, a certain liquidation. This is not unnatural. While this largest price drop in the past thirty years is unusual, on the other hand, there are those unusual incidents quite often. A correction was overdue. Now, the gold market has become healthier.

    Gold will now be seen as less important?
    The mood in the financial markets has changed. Investors have become more confident that the worst is over and everything will be all right: Europe has solved its problems in principle and the U.S. is on track, and China is going well. I had predicted that China will have a difficult year 2012, but it has not materialized. All this ensures optimism. Those who had bought gold for fear that higher inflation is imminent, perhaps now sees no more danger of inflation and an end to the gold price increases. Why should he keep gold?
    I was never therefore a bullish for gold, because I assumed higher inflation is imminent. Inflation is building slowly and is a long-term problem. You will not see it suddenly occur – just see it creeping up. Those who acquired gold for the wrong reasons, it may now be sold. Who maintains it belongs to a more stable investor base.

    The market sentiment has not brightened suddenly.
    Look around: States and financial systems are deeply in debt, interest rates can not fall further, real interest rates are negative, we live in a world of financial repression. The best possible outcome would be a gentle rise in interest rates in the coming years. This would be accompanied by negative real interest rates, because that is the only way for governments to gradually reduce their debt burden. In this scenario, the best long-term interest rates remain so low and therefore cause overvalued stocks and bonds. That’s not a bad environment for gold.

    What are worse scenarios?
    The danger is that the central banks lose control of inflation and interest rates. This is a deadly combination for the bond market, and also for stocks as was shown in the seventies. There are also other dangers: Europe is a time bomb. The euro was supposed to bring peace and prosperity and has instead caused a split. China deregulated the financial system, and the debts have grown significantly. The country is now where were the U.S. before the financial crisis. This is a dangerous game. On credit expansion, it sooner or later has to be followed by a reduction in debt. The consequences of this are evident in the U.S., Spain, Ireland, in the euro zone – also politically and socially. That will not be any different in China.

    Gold rose in parallel with the expansion of central bank balance sheets. This is no longer?
    Such correlations I am very careful – I had referred to me as a student with extensive econometrics. It can in fact establish a correlation between rainfall in Scotland and the money supply in the UK. Correlations do not mean much, even if the relationship between central bank balance, fear of inflation and the gold price is reasonable. The fear may subside, then breaks up the correlation.

    The Central banks in emerging markets are now buying more gold?
    I do not know. If I were central banker, I would certainly do that.

    Gold is not a safe haven anymore?
    gold will not protect against a crash in the financial markets, as shown in 2008. If many investors simultaneously urgently need cash, they sell everything they have, and gold. Then gold is a safe haven, if confidence in the currency is lost, or in the bond market. This happened to some extent in the seventies. Gold was before the latest crash is the right choice and it is now more than ever. I suppose I do not know how to evaluate resistance, but it is worth a lot to me.

    I apologise for my translation . If in doubt of the exact meaning I simply took the dictionary translation. e.g. “resistance” in the last line was the german word, but perhaps “stability” might have been a better choice.

    • On April 16, 2013 at 7:50 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I feel EXACTLY LIKE YOU JODY!

      God bless,

      Big Al

    • On April 16, 2013 at 7:51 pm,
      Big Al says:

      CFS,

      I like his comment, “But gold endures”‘

      Thank you, Big Al

  7. On April 16, 2013 at 7:31 pm,
    CFS says:

    After my effort, here’s a much better translation:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/dylan-grice-gold-market-healthier-now

    • On April 16, 2013 at 7:52 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Your translation worked f2f or me. Thank you CFS!

      Big Al

  8. On April 16, 2013 at 7:50 pm,
    BJ says:

    Good article posted over on GATA’s website this afternoon. Lots of interesting links provided within their posting.

    Quite frankly, I don’t think Adam Smith’s invisible hand of free market forces was at play during this or any of these PM take-downs. Instead, I believe it was Divine Providence!

    How do I know, because not long ago GS told us that they were doing God’s work; and who am I to question a the King of Money Handlers within the Temple of Naked Shorts? …Enough shorts were dumped into the market to absorb a year’s supply of mine production within two trading days. But for every short there was a buyer! Look how much took to push the market down. Now how will they cover that?

    • On April 16, 2013 at 8:56 pm,
      Dennis M. O'Neil says:

      The invisible hand was found dead inside the free markets’ naked shorts.

  9. On April 16, 2013 at 7:53 pm,
    Big Al says:

    Good point BJ!

    Big Al

    • On February 3, 2014 at 10:35 pm,
      Nerman says:

      This could not polsibsy have been more helpful!

  10. On April 16, 2013 at 10:09 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Many investors are trying to explain the severe drop in gold these last few days.
    People are left confused, baffled, panicked, fearful and depressed. It seems only right
    that there needs to be an explaination. Many investors are attaching themselves to the
    manipulation theory. It seems plausable and would not violate there judgment regarding the gold market. Some are even convinced COMEX is about to default. People are running around frantically calling up every Tom, Dick and Harry looking for silver. Scare tactic articles put out by hucksters trying to exploit the situation have a lot of opinion and no real evidence. So why did it happen and what is one to do now? Important questions without easy answers, or maybe the answers are easier than you think.
    Why did it happen? Easy, sellers simply out numbered buyers. Anyone who is honest with themselves, and detaches himself from their opinion, must admit gold and silver have struggled since the 2011 highs. Silver was simply crushed so I will limit by discussion to gold. First off gold had a great run, 12 years with only an occasional correction. It went up
    too high, for too long. It simply needed a breather. After putting in the $1900 all time high
    it failed three times to take out $1800. This was a classic triple top, a bearish indicator.
    More over gold did not react to positive news the way a bull market would. Unlike the recent run up in the stock market, which rallies on bullish news and ignores bearish news
    Gold did not behave that way. QE couldn’t rally it as in times past. Cyprus couldn’t rally it.
    North Korea couldn’t rally it. Unemployment numbers couldn’t rally it. This is an indicator
    something isn’t right. Every rally was met with swift take downs. The rallies were shorter with less of a bounce with each. Keys levels one by one became resistance. First$1800
    Then$1700, then $1650, then$1600. Classic lower highs. And unlike the way gold fell the first two times when it couldn’t take out $1800, this last time was clearly a slope of hope. I had said repeatedly we had seen the parabolic blow offs and new comers would not
    be rewarded in this market. Some said they never saw bull markets end this way. Trouble
    Is it wasn’t the end until now. Gold was ignored, it rose underneath the radar, it started
    To gain attention, people piled in, it made all time highs and crashed. Textbook market cycle. You do not need nafarious reasons. Yes untimely margin hikes, GS short calls all
    Contributed, but in reality if gold was still running with the bulls it would have shaken off
    These minor annoyances. This all played out as a classic bear to bull to bust market.
    So where do we go from here? Right now emotions are ruling the day. As noted people
    Are confused,scared, panicked, fearful, dejected and depressed. This is not the time to
    Make any decision. Some people out of fear will sell in desperation just to end the pain.
    Others will do nothing, being to numb to understand where we are at. Others will strike
    Out at the market and buy more, in essence telling the market – oh yeah, see if I care,
    Take that. Basically they are chasing. Others feel the “fundamentals” whatever they are
    Haven’t changed. I beg to differ. Everything has changed. First there are no such things
    As fundamentals. This seems ludicrous but true. It is just a market, buyers and sellers, each with an opinion. The market is like a herd. The crowd moves one way and then back the other way. A constant ebb and flow. The sad reality, that less than 1 in 10000 get is that fundamentals don’t matter. People can’t wrap their brain around that. It seems unjust.
    People want to figure it out. This is the doom of the investor. This is the gimmick. Look at it this way – everyone thinks he is smarter than the next guy. They do there homework, gather their information and think they know more than the average bear. They don’t. They think they are the smartest guy in the room and they are not. A few on this site think that,
    You can read them like a book. So they know all there is to know about QE, and head and shoulders, and pennant flags, and sovereign debt, and China, and central bank buying and on and on. It means nothing. The guy on the opposite side of the trade knows all that too.
    The next guy who thinks he is really really smart goes even deeper, learning Elliot wave and hidden pivots, and cot reports and RSI indicators. It’s all bs. Again the guy on the opposite side of the trade has his bag of info as well it is a zero sum game. All the info is already baked in the cake, it is all discounted. The market is made up of the smartest guys in the room, the wanna bees and the little old grandma who saved her nickels in the jar. All these players make for an efficient market. The reality of the market is it isn’t intellect that beats it, it is temperament. Look at me, when I first started investing in gold I knew nothing and made a fortune, now I know a heck of a lot more and am losing a heck of a lot more.
    This is the downfall of the investor. He does his homework, invests his money based on his conclusion, and if he succeeds he thinks his judgment was right. Not so. He was just on the right side of the trade. So he applies the same methods and this time they don’t work. Meanwhile the grandma who saw a commercial with a handsome man with a trustworthy face decides to invest in gold because he was good looking and seemed like able. That is the person in the market with you. You think you have an edge over her and you don’t. Which brings up the main point. No edge, no bet. No edge, no bet. And if you think investing isn’t betting you are deluded. Right now no one has an edge in this market. I don’t care how convincing they make their case. Think of it this way- you bet football. The favorite is two touchdowns better on the line. The night before the quarterback finds out his tight end is sleeping with his wife. He gets drunk, beats the crap out of him, hurts his shoulder in the fight and his friend drives him back to the hotel at 3am breaking curfew. The next day, still hungover, and his arm still bruised he throws three interceptions in the first half and they are all converted into 17 points for the underdog. The coach benches him in the second half. The backup QE comes in, because of their superior ability they are able to rally and win 24 to 20 but they couldn’t get themselves out of the hole they dug and couldn’t cover the 14 points. You leave the stadium confused and upset wondering how they stunk up the joint. You knew all the stats, all the probabilities and still lost. You know who made money?
    The best friend. He went to his bookie and cleaned up. He knew his friend was in no condition today. He had the edge. No edge, no bet. Think this doesn’t happen every Sunday? You better believe it does. You say I’m an investor, not a better. Afraid not. You are in a market and you are a speculator pure and simple. Think of it this way, the guys rights now making a fortune as gold goes down are the same guys who are going to make fortune when gold goes up. What does that tell you about fundamentals? The big race is today and the heavy heavy favorite is 1 to 5. Everyone is packing the racetrack to see the champion. The trainer notices when the horse wakes up the day of the race he is off his feed, he’d rather stay in the barn, doesn’t feel like running today. We all get like that some days. The trainer knows he can’t scratch the horse, the racetrack owners will be furious about all the money that won’t be bet. Since he has to run the horse and doesn’t want to hurt him he tells the jockey to go easy on him, just let him get some exercise. The horse goes off at 2to 5 and finishes a well beaten third. You curse as you leave the track. Meanwhile the trainer and the jockey clean up betting every horse in the race but their own. They had the edge. No edge, no bet. Happens every day. You say what does that have to do with me? Could just as we’ll be, and it is, Enron, Banksters not reporting bad loans, Apple not releasing the next big thing, Viagra kept under the table, clinical trial fraud, Walmart goosing earnings. Same thing…you get the point. Bottom line it’s a market. Fundamentals don’t matter. Price matters. Gold at $1900 was a bad bet. Gold at $1300 might be a good bet. So forget about what these so called experts say, they no no more than the expert on the opposite side of the trade. So what do I say? Wait and see…

  11. On April 17, 2013 at 1:56 am,
    irishtony says:

    James….A nice long piece, i admire you for spending so much time putting it together , you must have put a lot of thought into it……………………………………….
    But with all due respect , i must disagree with most of it. No offence meant , tony.

  12. On April 17, 2013 at 3:11 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Wow you got there in the end James!! Good job I read your missive first thing this a.m.! Compressing it all I hear you say:

    (1) Too many experts only complicate our ever reaching any clear conclusions., on top of which there is all that dis-information masquearading as mis-infromation. But then there are ‘experts’ and experts, most of whom I trust on this website.

    (2) Recently over here a Grand National winner sank without trace, whilst a rank outside (66-1) romped it. So, yes the apparently ridiculous happens and not that infrequently.

    (3) Many ‘experts’ still persist in the belief that the dollar is odds on favourite to defeat all-comers, while gold is a wooden horse, destined only to hobble home on its haunches. Our dear friend SilverFox springs to mind here…..

    (4) Suits me fine to keep dealing against odds that only look to favour the bookies, since as has been blogged earlier intuition plays a crucial part amidst all the swirling expertise.

    Keep the faith

    Thanks, Andrew

    • On April 17, 2013 at 4:13 am,
      Bobby says:

      Andrew, good points. I think we need to weed out the “experts” with track poor track records. There simply are too many writers spewing words for money. Others take no real stand at all, seemingly agreeing with anything said as to no offend. Lets get real here, hold these people accountable or at least expose the false prophets.

      • On April 17, 2013 at 5:41 am,
        Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

        Bobby,thanks. Invariably like the prophets of Baal the false prophets far out-number the small minority who call it right.

    • On April 17, 2013 at 6:41 am,
      CFS says:

      James, your piece was elegantly written and I agree with much of it. The market is the market and at any point time it will behave as it wishes. (Driven by supply and demand, why cannot be fully known, or better expressed driven by buyers and sellers) However, in the long term I have never met a market that did not trend in the long run in the direction of the fundamentals, which can be better determined.

  13. On April 17, 2013 at 3:13 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Sorry – typo : meant to write dis-information masquerading as information!

  14. On April 17, 2013 at 3:38 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Irishtony – no offense taken. You can disagree with whatever you want.

  15. On April 17, 2013 at 3:43 am,
    Bobby says:

    Who is the winner in this short debate? I vote for the guy who has the track record of being correct?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=em3ViA23OUY

  16. On April 17, 2013 at 3:45 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    Irishtony – I should have asked though what exactly do you disagree with?

  17. On April 17, 2013 at 4:30 am,
    Bobby says:
  18. On April 17, 2013 at 4:37 am,
    Bobby says:

    By the way, I post these articles assuming that most people do not have the 4-6 hours a day to read thru the various websites, finance sense, brotherjohnf, financial survival network, I find the two consolidators to offer enough reading for the entire day. Sometimes at the end of the day I find myself debating within my head what will happen next, truth be told, NOBODY, EXCEPT THE ELITE KNOWS. they have no newsletters or blogs that I know of. Their plan is to transfer all the wealth to them….then what i ask myself?

  19. On April 17, 2013 at 5:12 am,
    James (the lesser) says:

    I don’t believe a word Jim Rogers says. He still says gold is in a bubble? He is talking down his own investment. Doubt it.

  20. On April 17, 2013 at 5:15 am,
    Sandy says:

    Every time I think of the PM CEO’s I think of the movie Animal House when Kevin Bacon say’s while being paddled, “Thank you sir can I have another”.
    For years now the bullion banks have illegally manipulated the PM markets and the PM CEO’s have done nothing. Disgraceful!!!!

  21. On April 17, 2013 at 5:39 am,
    Irwin says:

    quote:
    “Gold buyers in India, the world’s biggest consumer, are flocking to stores to buy jewelry and coins, betting a selloff that plunged bullion to a two-year low may be overdone.

    “My daughter is just six months old, but I think it is never too early to buy gold,” said Sharmila Shirodkar, a 28- year-old housewife, while displaying a new pair of earrings she bought from a store in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar. “I had been asking my husband every day if prices will go down more. I couldn’t wait anymore.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-16/gold-bears-scarce-in-india-as-selloff-lures-shoppers-to-bazaars.html

    ~~~~~//~~~~~
    unrelated:
    Cape Breton singer Rita MacNeil dies at 68 – goodbye Rita.

    Rita MacNeil singing “We’ll Reach The Sky Tonight”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcnXxFiyNzw

    • On April 17, 2013 at 11:53 am,
      JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

      there for a second…..I thought you had a six month old daughter……I thought,,,man this guy is spunky…and quite active……llol….ootb

  22. On April 17, 2013 at 6:08 am,
    CFS says:

    They tried to knock it down this morning, but everyone is picking it up cheaper in Asia:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/gold-buying-frenzy-continues-china-japan-and-australia-scramble-physical

  23. On April 17, 2013 at 6:18 am,
    Andrew de Berry (Rev) says:

    Looks like the gold rush has got seriously underway. Thanks CFS.

  24. On April 17, 2013 at 6:30 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    It will be interesting to see what happens when America becomes more energy dependent via the shale oil/gas revolution.

    Will they eventually join OPEC and try to dominate it or will they become isolationist either way The US dollar won’t be the petrodollar and ironically America’s energy success could hasten it’s decline. Dt

  25. On April 17, 2013 at 6:33 am,
    CFS says:
  26. On April 17, 2013 at 6:33 am,
    har says:

    Europe is a basket case, those EUROs will be changed into USDs.

    • On April 17, 2013 at 6:51 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Har, did the emperor get some new clothes or should we consider The US is a shell game in which case I can’t see a swap. DT

      • On April 17, 2013 at 6:59 am,
        har says:

        USDs goes up/commodities go down. Now is the time to be invested in U.S. stuff and short stuff that goes down when the U.S. goes up.

      • On April 17, 2013 at 7:02 am,
        har says:

        Did not even mention the Yen that is going to implode before Euro.

        South African Rand has all ready imploded – commoditiy currency. I am going to Cape Town this weekend – the exchange rate is very good and I have NZDs I want to get rid of.

  27. On April 17, 2013 at 7:02 am,
    CFS says:

    Har, if you believe the dollar is going up, in my opinion you are wrong. This is the century of Asia.

    http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/like-1973-dows-decline-to-bring-massive-gold-rally/

    • On April 17, 2013 at 7:04 am,
      har says:

      Nope. China – nativies will get tired of the polluition they are heavily in debt.

      Japan – what a mess.

      Thailand – Indian is eating their lunch on rice production.

      South Korea – locals want higher wages.

      Singapore – the Cyprus of asia.

      Australia/New Zealand – massive housing bubble.

      I live in Asia 60% of the year and visit of the countries within the last 12 months.

  28. On April 17, 2013 at 7:07 am,
    CFS says:

    Why is it the century of Asia? Because:
    1. The taxation system is not sucking the life-blood out of everything.
    2. People are hard working.
    3. Although under-mechanised and, thus less productive than the industrialised West, the change will be towards greater productivity.

    • On April 17, 2013 at 7:13 am,
      har says:

      Reason they have a low tax system is they tariff the puck out of imports. A bottle of Aussie wine in China has a 300% tariff. Their economy is based on exporting to countries that are in decline – that formula does not work. It is a one sided trade with Asia.

      • On April 17, 2013 at 8:11 am,
        marc says:

        Har,
        God bless you..but, your a nut… :). Asia, etc. 3.5 billion people vs the US..314 million people… figure it out. Commodities are going down. What are you smoking, brother.:)
        Respectfully,
        Marc

        • On April 17, 2013 at 11:46 am,
          JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

          har,,,is correct about the Chinese,,,,it is a one way street for those people…they are nice people, until they find your weakness….(oh,maybe I said that)…..But, no doubt,they like to have the advantage……if, anyone has ever done business with the chinese ,they know what I am talking about…….ootb…..just saying…

  29. On April 17, 2013 at 7:13 am,
    CFS says:

    I actually agree with you about pollution in China, I don’t like brown skies either.
    Australia does have a housing bubble. NZ less so.
    I disagree about Singapore.

    • On April 17, 2013 at 7:15 am,
      har says:

      Singapore imports all their food, cars, good – they make nothing. They are a financial center just like Cyrprus that gives favorable treatment to foreigners – like was given to Russians and Brits.

      • On April 17, 2013 at 7:21 am,
        CFS says:

        Without a doubt Singapore lacks raw resources and is over-populated, but last I checked kept spending under control; unlike Cyprus, which was overly solialistic.

        • On April 17, 2013 at 7:25 am,
          har says:

          Just read the stories about all the millionaries moving to Singapore. It is just like Cyprus was 5 years ago.

          • On April 17, 2013 at 7:38 am,
            CFS says:

            Actually five years ago, there weren’t many millionaires going to Cyprus, and indeed there has not been that many Russians noticeable at all. (Except for the inability of younger Russians to hold their liquor and get noisy in nightclubs, their presence would not be nitceable) More noticeable is the grey-hairs from all over Europe retiring to a pleasantly warm low-tax climate. Unfortunately, the government of the southern half of the Island suffers from all the characteristics of Greeks, were lax in even collecting tax, and the banks downfall was inmvesting in Greek government bonds that were wiped out. If Greek bonds had not gone to zero, Cyprus would not have collapsed.
            UNfortunately the same is true of most of Europe, collapse of any nation would have serious repercussions in other nations. It is this fear that currently binds the union.

        • On April 17, 2013 at 7:26 am,
          har says:

          You do realize that most of the Singpore people work for the govt, live in govt housing, govt provided utiltities and health care? That is socialism on steroids.

          • On April 17, 2013 at 7:28 am,
            har says:

            Singapore reminds me very much of Saudi Arabia without the oil. Locals work for the govt and they import low cost workers to take care of them.

          • On April 17, 2013 at 7:43 am,
            CFS says:

            No, I did not realize that. Thank you for the info. What percentage of the total population lives in government housing, would you estimate? Of course, the same is true in England. Maggie Thatcher made such council housing closer to break-even costwise, and that was a primary cause for her down-fall.

  30. On April 17, 2013 at 7:18 am,
    CFS says:
  31. On April 17, 2013 at 8:25 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    Quote of the day;

    “within the Temple of Naked Shorts? …’

    Thanks, BJ

    Dan

    • On April 17, 2013 at 12:15 pm,
      JERRYthe Short.OOTB says:

      if you loose you shorts are you naked…….;maybe I will change my moniker to
      NAKED AS A JAYBIRD…..